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February 20th Financial News
Summary:
Nick Timiraos: Fed officials are considering slowing down or pausing the balance sheet runoff; Adrian Orr: Further interest rate cuts are on the way..
[Quick Facts]
1. Nick Timiraos: Federal Reserve officials consider slowing down or pausing asset tapering.
2. Fed meeting minutes: Hope to see further progress on inflation before interest rate cuts.
3. Trump intervenes in the budget dispute between the two houses, supporting the House Republicans' $4.5 trillion tax cut plan.
4. New construction drops sharply in January on cold weather and tariffs concerns.
5. Fed's Jefferson: The path of disinflation is bumpy, and the adjustment of policy rates awaits the right time.
6. Orr: Further rate cuts are on the way.
7. Bostic: Need to observe for a while before considering interest rate cuts.
8. European stocks suffered their biggest decline in two months as the market worried about tariffs and a shallower path of interest rate cuts.
9. Trump calls Zelensky a 'dictator' to pressure Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement.
[News Details]
Nick Timiraos: Federal Reserve Officials consider slowing down or pausing asset tapering
"Fed's Whisperer" Nick Timiraos stated that the minutes of the Fed's January meeting revealed that officials had discussed whether to slow down or pause the reduction of its nearly $6.8 trillion asset portfolio during last month's meeting. This was because they were facing the complex issues arising from raising the federal debt ceiling in the coming months. The dynamics associated with the debt ceiling could lead to significant fluctuations in the Fed's liabilities. The balance sheet reduction process will eventually exhaust the banking system's reserves, and Fed officials are uncertain about how long this process will take. How the Treasury Department manages the currency market turbulence caused by its cash balance may complicate the Fed's ability to determine the appropriate reserve balance. Therefore, according to the meeting minutes released on Wednesday, officials at the January meeting believed that "considering pausing or slowing the reduction of the balance sheet until the debt ceiling issue is resolved may be appropriate."
Fed meeting minutes: Hope to see further progress on inflation before interest rate cuts
The Fed meeting minutes showed that the Fed hopes to see "further progress on inflation" before deciding on further interest rate cuts. Citing rising inflation pressures, the Fed kept interest rates stable in the range of 4.25%-4.5% at the last meeting, and the market did not expect an interest rate cut at the March meeting either. According to the meeting minutes, the committee agreed that "the Fed has ample time to assess the evolving outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation." Many economists and market strategists are worried that tariffs and stricter immigration policies may increase inflation pressures, potentially offsetting the positive impacts of tax cuts and deregulation. The Fed has previously indicated that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates further due to persistently high inflation. Inflation has come down from its post-pandemic highs but remains stubbornly above the Fed's ideal level. For example, the consumer price index in January rose 3% year-on-year, the fastest pace in seven months and also higher than the Fed's 2% target.
Trump intervenes in the budget dispute between the two houses, supporting the House Republicans' $4.5 trillion tax cut plan
US President Donald Trump expressed his support for the House's plan to cut taxes by 4.5 trillion, pouring cold water on Senate Republicans' eagerness appropriations to help combat immigration by approving appropriations, indicating that he does not favor large-scale bills that may require months of bargaining to reach an agreement. As a key congressional vote approached, Trump intervened in the ongoing budget dispute between House and Senate Republicans by posting on social media on Wednesday. The Senate originally planned to vote on a budget bill this week. The budget bill would increase military spending by 150 billion. Senate Republicans said they prefer to take swift action on these priorities and are not in a rush to resolve core disputes such as tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling. However, Trump expressed his support for the House's more comprehensive budget plan, which has sparked conflicts within the Republican Party over issues such as the amount of federal spending cuts and the scale of tax cuts.
New Construction Drops Sharply in January on Cold Weather and Tariffs Concerns
The pace of new construction slowed in January, as colder than normal weather spread across the country, and the rebound may be limited by rising import tariff costs and rising mortgage rates. Starts on single-family units dropped 8.4% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 993,000, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday. The December data was revised up to 1.084 million units, higher than the previously reported 1.05 million units. Although housing construction is still supported by a shortage of existing home supplies, the protectionist trade policies implemented by the Trump administration may make it difficult for builders to start new housing projects. A survey showed that due to the fact that 32% of household appliances and 30% of softwood lumber rely on international trade, the uncertainty about the scale and scope of tariffs makes builders more worried about costs. Mortgage rates are also a source of pressure. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovers just below 7%.
Jefferson: The path of inflation is bumpy, and the adjustment of policy rates awaits the right time
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech on Wednesday that the current monetary policy stance is closer to a neutral setting, but we still believe that the current monetary policy is restrictive. Supported by a strong economy and a solid labor market, policymakers can take a more relaxed attitude in considering any additional interest rate cuts.
The path of inflation is 'uneven', and disinflation has been 'bumpy'. The Federal Reserve leaves its benchmark interest rate unchanged for January and is not in a hurry to start a new round of interest rate cuts, mainly because it needs more information about the progress of inflation and wants to understand the specific impacts of the Trump administration's policies.
Orr: Further rate cuts are on the way
Adrian Orr, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, said in a speech on February 19th (local time) that economic activity in New Zealand is picking up, and the economic outlook is in line with the inflation target in the medium term, which gives confidence to continue with interest rate cuts. However, there is still significant spare capacity in the economy, and domestic inflation pressures are expected to continue to ease. He expects that employment growth will pick up in the second half of the year as domestic activity increases.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans to implement two 25-bps interest rate adjustments, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by mid this year around July. Also, it is expected to cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 3.75% on Wednesday. Future interest rates will continue to decline, but there will be no rush to adjust to a level like 3% because inflation remains high.
The New Zealand dollar is close to fair value against the US dollar and has played a positive role in promoting income growth. This trend is expected to continue this year as the factors supporting these prices still exist. In addition, if interest rates can be adjusted to a neutral level and remain stable, GDP and nominal GDP growth will be close to potential levels, and the exchange rate will also stay near fair value (which means there is limited room for a significant short-term depreciation of the New Zealand dollar).
Near-term risks include a slowdown in GDP growth, and longer term risks include US tariffs which slow global growth. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is ready to respond to any potential shocks and will take action when necessary to support the economy.
Bostic: Need to observe for a while before considering interest rate cuts
Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in an interview on Wednesday that the US inflation rate is expected to fall to around the 2% target level by early 2026. At the same time, the neutral interest rate level is around 3% to 3.5%, and it may approach this level early next year.
He fully agrees with the Fed's idea of pausing policy adjustments in the current economic situation to observe how the economy develops and use this information to guide policy-making in the coming months. Officials should be patient when assessing the impact of President Trump's policies on the economy. Some policies may exacerbate inflation, while others may stimulate investment.
I think we are still in a restrictive stance, which is what we need. We should be more cautious now and in the future than in the past six to eight months. The debt ceiling is one factor, and how banks allocate capital is also an issue that needs attention.
Bostic is one of several Fed officials who have recently advocated patience regarding further interest rate cuts. He said earlier this month that he hopes to wait "for a while" before cutting interest rates again and expects that the Fed will not be able to clarify the inflation trend at its next policy meeting in March.
European stocks suffered their biggest decline in two months as the market worried about tariffs and a shallower path of interest rate cuts
European stocks suffered their biggest decline in two months, constrained by the possibility that the monetary easing cycle may be weaker than expected and the renewed concern about trade disputes with the US. The Stoxx 600 index closed 0.9% lower, marking the largest single-day decline since December 19th. After Isabel Schnabel, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, said that the central bank is close to pausing or stopping interest rate cuts, traders lowered their bets on ECB interest rate cuts. Trade tensions were also in the spotlight as US President Donald Trump said that he may impose around 25% import tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Trump calls Zelensky a 'dictator' to pressure Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement
Trump called Zelenskyy a "dictator" and increased pressure on Kiev to accept the terms of the peace agreement that the US is negotiating with Russia. He claimed on Wednesday that Zelenskyy had taken advantage of Democrat Joe Biden's administration and suggested Kyiv was responsible for starting the war. "He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden 'like a fiddle,'" Mr. Trump wrote. "A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left." Trump's remarks are the sharpest criticism of Zelensky since his return to the White House and are the latest sign of the rapid deterioration of US-Ukraine relations under Trump's rule. Trump dispatched senior advisors to Saudi Arabia this week to negotiate directly with Russia, excluding Ukraine from the process.
[Today's Focus]
UTC+8 15:00 German January PPI monthly rate
UTC+8 19:00 The ECB publishes its 2024 Financial Stability Review
UTC+8 21:00 ECB governor Makhlouf speaks on the Irish economy
UTC+8 22:35 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Goolsbee speaks
UTC+8 00:00 ECB governor Nagel speaks
UTC+8 01:05 President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Musalem speaks
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