January 24th Financial News

Daily News

Summary:

Trump threatens heavy tariffs on non-US-manufactured products; EU plans to extend the natural gas storage target until 2027; Japan's factory activity hit a 10-Month Low in January, but the Service Sector Improved...

[Quick Facts]

1.Trump threatens heavy tariffs on non-US-manufactured products.

2.Hungary Set to Offer Natural Gas Transit Services for Slovakia.

3.EU plans to extend the natural gas storage target until 2027.

4.US Initial jobless claims rose slightly, but continuous jobless claims soared to a more-than-three-year high.

5.Japan's factory activity hit a 10-month low in January, but the service sector improved.

6.US Treasury Department unveils new measures to avert debt ceiling breach.

[News Details]

Trump threatens heavy tariffs on non-US-manufactured products

On January 23rd, US President Trump said in a video speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 that if products are not manufactured in the US, they will face tariffs of "hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars". He wanted to tell global companies to "produce products in the US", otherwise they must pay different amounts of tariffs, which would result in hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars flowing into the US treasury. He also promised to cut the corporate tax for companies producing in the US to 15%. Trump also criticized the EU for having tariffs that are too high, overly restrictive regulations, and a trade deficit that is too large with the US.

He said he would take measures because this is "very, very unfair to the US". When asked whether the US would guarantee the natural gas supply to Europe, Trump gave an affirmative answer. He said he would reach an energy agreement with Europe and emphasized the importance of the US exporting liquefied natural gas to the EU. Trump also explained he plans to intervene in the world oil market on a large scale and called on OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia to "reduce the cost of oil". Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump said the US will strive to ensure a peaceful settlement.

Hungary set to offer natural gas transit services for Slovakia

On January 23 local time, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó said that Hungary is ready to make full use of its gas transmission capacity to provide natural gas transit services for Slovakia. Szijjártó said that the country received 7.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas through the TurkStream pipeline last year, so there is still about 0.9 billion cubic meters of available capacity, which can be used to improve Slovakia's energy demand situation. In addition, the Hungarian foreign minister emphasized at a press conference on the same day that Hungary has the right to decide its energy sources and transportation routes and firmly opposes any country's pressure on its energy policy. He accused Ukraine's move to terminate the transit of Russian natural gas as "unacceptable", threatening regional energy security. "It is unacceptable for a candidate country of the EU to cause trouble to the energy supply of EU member states.

EU plans to extend the natural gas storage target until 2027

According to reliable sources, the European Commission plans to seek an extension of the natural gas inventory target in the European region until 2027 to help ease persistent supply concerns. The EU introduced natural gas storage targets at the height of the energy crisis in 2022 to ensure sufficient supply during the coldest periods. This regime is due to expire at the end of 2025, and the EU's executive body is drafting a measure to extend it. This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament, and the process is expected to be completed by the end of June.

US initial jobless claims rose slightly, but continuous jobless claims soared to a more-than-three-year high

The number of initial jobless claims rose slightly in the US, but the number of continuous jobless claims hit a more-than-three-year high. Data showed that initial jobless claims in the week ended January 18 increased by 6,000 to 223,000, and the median forecast of economists polled was 220,000. Data released by the Labor Department on Thursday indicated that continuous jobless claims in the previous week jumped to 1.9 million, hitting the highest level since November 2021. It means the unemployed have to spend more time finding a job. However, weekly data tend to be volatile, especially at this time of year.

Japan's factory activity hit a 10-Month Low in January, but the Service Sector Improved

A preliminary business survey released on Friday revealed that although Japan's service sector further improved in January, factory activity dropped to a 10-month low due to weak demand. This result highlights the important supporting role of the service sector for the economy. With the manufacturing industry in trouble, the service sector continues to support economic growth. The au Jibun Bank's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in Japan fell to 48.8 in January from 49.6 in December. The index has been below the 50 threshold since June last year.

US Treasury Department unveils new measures to avert debt ceiling breach

The US Treasury Department said it will expand the use of extraordinary accounting measures to avoid breaching the federal debt ceiling that retook effect earlier this month. Acting Treasury Secretary David Lebryk informed congressional leaders of this move in a letter on January 23. This new measure supplements the steps recommended by former Treasury Secretary Yellen last week. Lebryk demonstrated that as of Thursday, the Treasury Department can no longer fully invest in the government securities investment fund of the Thrift Savings Plan for the Federal Employees Retirement System, a defined-contribution retirement fund for federal employees. He said, "Once the debt limit is raised or suspended, the fund will be compensated."

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 11:00 BoJ's Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

UTC+8 16:15 France Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Jan)

UTC+8 16:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Jan)

UTC+8 17:00 Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Jan)

UTC+8 17:30 U.K. Services PMI Prelim (Jan)

UTC+8 22:45 U.S. IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI Prelim (SA) (Jan)

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. Annual Total Existing Home Sales (Dec)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Forex

keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump's last tariff regime in 2018-19, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD may explore the lower end of a 1.0350-1.0450 range

“Another reason traders may not want to reduce their euro short positions is ahead of tomorrow's release of the eurozone flash PMis for January. Another dire set of confidence readings will only encourage the ECB to look through the tick-up in inflation and commit to a 100bp+ easing cycle this year.”

“EUR/USD looks like it might explore the lower end of a 1.0350-1.0450 range today should Trump have something more to say about tariffs. But the next big move may not emerge until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, the US December core PCE deflator next Friday, and that seemingly 1 February tariff deadline.”

Source：FXStreet

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Justin

Economic

EUR/USD ticks lower to near 1.0400 in Thursday’s European session as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its recovery to near 108.40 from the two-week low of 107.75 posted on Wednesday. The Greenback bounces back as the market sentiment turns slightly cautious, with investors assessing the consequences of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs on economic growth.

Trump has threatened 25% tariff hikes on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, which will come into effect on February 1. He also plans to impose tariffs on Europe after accusing the bloc of being "very, very bad to us". Trump’s tariff hike approach appears to be more gradual than what market participants had anticipated. However, they would still be unfavorable to global economic growth.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde commented on CNBC that Trump’s decision not to swiftly impose tariffs was a "smart approach" because blanket levies don’t necessarily give you the “results that you expect." Lagarde warned that Europe must “anticipate what will happen” and be “prepared in order to respond,” as Trump’s tariffs would be “selective” and “focused.”

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD ticks lower ahead of Eurozone-US flash PMI for January

EUR/USD edges lower on Thursday, with investors focusing on flash private Eurozone and the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for January, which will be published on Friday. Eurozone HCOB PMI report, compiled by S&P Global, is expected to show that overall business activity continued to contract but at a slower pace. The HCOB Composite PMI is estimated to come in slightly higher at 49.7, compared to 49.6 in December.

On the US front, economists expect overall business activity to have expanded almost at a steady pace. Activities in the manufacturing sector are estimated to have contracted again but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the service sector activity is expected to expand moderately.

Investors should also brace for significant volatility in the next week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB will announce their first monetary policy decisions this year. The Fed is certain to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the ECB.

Traders also expect the ECB to cut its Deposit Facility rate in each of its next four policy meetings. ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that he is now confident that “inflation will stabilize at the target as predicted” and monetary policy will “stop being restrictive” in the near future. However, he refrained from endorsing market expectations and argued that policy decisions will be determined meeting by meeting.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure around 1.0460

EUR/USD struggles to extend its recovery above the immediate resistance of 1.0460, which was initiated from a two-year low of 1.0175 reached on January 13. The major currency pair bounced back after a divergence in momentum and price action. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low, while the pair made lower lows.

The near-term outlook of the shared currency pair has improved as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0360. Meanwhile, the longer-term outlook is still bearish as the 200-day EMA at 1.0700 is sloping downwards.

Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0175 will be the key support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

Source: FXSTREET

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Cohen

Economic

The government is committed to prioritising enabling policies over direct intervention to drive creativity and growth in key industries for the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), Economy Minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli said.

He said the focus would be on fostering a robust ecosystem through policy support, efficiency improvements, talent development and structural incentives to position Malaysia as a high-income nation by 2028 or 2029.

“The government’s role should be to enable and facilitate, allowing industries to leverage their creativity and expand independently, which requires policies that strengthen the overall ecosystem,” said Rafizi at the final engagement session with industry representatives for the 13MP here on Thursday.

The session, which included stakeholders from retail, private healthcare, tourism, construction, logistics and other service sectors, highlighted the increasing reliance of Malaysia’s economy on the service industry.

Rafizi said the service sector is expected to dominate Malaysia’s economic activities over the next 10-20 years, aligning with the rise of Asean as a major global economic power.

“Asean is projected to become the fourth-largest economy, or even the third, within 10-15 years, and its growing middle class, young population, and digital connectivity make it a consumption powerhouse, and Malaysia is well-positioned to benefit from this growth.

“The 13MP presents the best opportunity to restructure the economy and implement reforms necessary for Malaysia’s development trajectory (and) unlike previous plans, the 13MP focuses on structural changes to support sustainable growth and align with the evolving global economy,” he added.

He said the Ministry of Economy is taking a holistic approach to macro-level planning, covering all areas including the infrastructure, social development, education and healthcare to support the country’s progress.

However, he acknowledged that policy implementation could have unintended consequences and urged stakeholders to share their views to address blind spots.

“There will always be trade-offs in policymaking. Insights from industry players and parliamentarians are critical to refining our strategies and ensuring the policies achieve their intended outcomes,” he said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Owen Li

Economic

This strategy includes diminishing oversight in key domestic economic sectors and advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity and data privacy. However, this approach may face challenges when these areas intersect with national security concerns, particularly regarding perceived threats from China.

Federal-level regulation to focus on countering China

The potential vulnerabilities in American national security across various sensitive sectors are highlighted in President Trump’s 2018 National Defense Strategy. This strategy identifies China, alongside Russia, as a central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security, marking a significant shift in how these nations are perceived within the context of global power dynamics.

The strategy describes an increasingly complex global security environment characterized by “rapid technological change and challenges from adversaries in every operating domain.” It identifies the Chinese government as pursuing “a military modernization program that seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near term and aims to displace the United States to achieve global pre-eminence in the future.”

With China positioned at the center of national security considerations, along with its implications for key domestic development sectors, this approach is expected to be further reinforced by Mr. Trump in his second administration. He plans to intensify federal oversight of U.S. companies leading in the development of advanced technologies. The strategy will specifically target Chinese entities attempting to steal U.S. corporate technology or disrupt national security.

From a data privacy perspective, U.S. companies that transfer large amounts of data to “countries of concern,” notably China, will face increased federal scrutiny.

Transitioning Biden’s restrictive AI policy on China to Trump

Mr. Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, has prioritized limiting China’s AI capabilities as a crucial policy goal. Recently, the U.S. Treasury issued final regulations that limit U.S. investments in China concerning certain AI systems, semiconductors and quantum computing technologies.

Under Mr. Trump, AI will be the primary advanced technology targeted for investment restrictions. This shift will likely involve moving away from President Biden’s risk mitigation strategy in AI development toward a greater emphasis on rivalry with China. Even so, certain national security policy features are likely to be carried over from one administration to the next.

For example, several measures arising from President Biden’s executive order on advanced technologies in October 2023 were introduced to determine how AI capabilities are protected in the U.S. Other measures, yet to be enforced, will seek to restrict China’s advancement of its own capabilities in developing this technology. Each of these policy measures is likely to be adopted by the incoming Trump administration.

Technology restrictions on China to intensify

Investment restrictions on China have bipartisan support on Capitol Hill and are expected to become even more pronounced during a second Trump administration. Earlier in 2024, the U.S. Commerce Department issued “know your customer” requirements for cloud service providers, mandating that they report to authorities whenever a foreign entity uses a cloud service to develop an AI model that could enable cyber activities.

While this measure is designed to protect cloud-based infrastructure provided by U.S. companies, it also monitors foreign nations’ abilities to acquire U.S.-developed foundational technology and develop their own systems based on that technology.

New rules are also being implemented regarding the collection and sharing of data about U.S. persons and critical infrastructure. Under a Trump administration, the practical focus will likely be on what foreign adversaries could do with such data if they applied AI capabilities.

Moreover, the U.S. Commerce Department has launched rules that limit the sale of vehicle systems capable of collecting information about U.S. critical infrastructure. Such information is of interest to foreign adversaries, and countries such as China manufacture such systems. Many of these rules are ongoing, and there is a high likelihood that the Trump administration will continue to enable them.

This intersection of advanced technologies with national security is one where a significant degree of consistency can be expected from the outgoing administration to the incoming one.

Export controls and investment restrictions

The U.S. uses export controls as key tools to deny China access to advanced technologies. The process began with the Export Control Reform Act in August 2018, which regulated the export of dual-use technologies, primarily targeting China. The Biden administration further tightened export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items from October 2022, again focusing mainly on China.

The U.S. has also been applying export controls with significant extraterritorial effect, substantially influencing the development of international supply chains, the location of manufacturing facilities and the ability of foreign entities to collaborate with global counterparts.

For example, the U.S. recently ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, the world’s leading advanced chip maker, to stop selling its chips to Chinese customers – a directive that the company has indicated it will comply with. This restriction aims to slow China’s AI development and is a key area where decoupling between China and the U.S. is in full swing.

Another policy taking shape involves foreign investment restrictions administered by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). Under the first Trump administration, the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act, enacted in August 2018, strengthened and modernized the committee by expanding its coverage of inward investment transactions to include national security reviews. Its remit has continued to expand, and the committee now covers merger and acquisition activity.

In particular, Chinese ownership of U.S. technology companies has been subject to scrutiny, sometimes resulting in Chinese stakes in tech firms being blocked or ordered to divest by authorities. Under the new Trump administration, CFIUS is likely to gain more extraordinary powers to block Chinese investments across U.S. industries.

President Biden also restricted outward direct investment into China in specific areas of technology in August 2023.

Bipartisan congressional anti-China laws

Aside from the White House, the U.S. Congress plays a significant role in setting national security measures concerning China. Consequently, where advanced technologies intersect with national security, a notable escalation in oversight can be expected. This will include not only tighter enforcement actions but also congressional inquiries and hearings where both U.S. and foreign companies could face intense scrutiny.

Prior to the last U.S. national election, Congress passed several pieces of legislation targeting threats posed by China’s ruling communist party during what is now referred to as “China Week.”

Several bills currently before the Senate aim to address risks arising from China’s economic, ideological, technological and military challenges to the U.S. According to Chairman John Moolenaar of the Congressional Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party:

Congress will take action to secure our supply chains. From electric vehicle batteries to health care to critical infrastructure, the Chinese Communist Party wants to make us dependent on companies subject to its direction. Legislation on the floor this week will take steps to protect taxpayer dollars from being used by the CCP to advance its leverage over our critical supply chains.

The strong bipartisan support for this wide range of legislation indicates that Congress is committed to intensifying U.S.-China rivalry.

Source:gis reports online

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Cohen

Economic

The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.4400 in Thursday’s European session. The Loonie pair consolidates as investors shift their focus to the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC), which are scheduled on Wednesday.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Traders expect the Fed to keep borrowing rates steady on the assumption that United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic policies will be pro-growth and inflationary for the economy.

Trump has threatened to raise 25% tariffs on China and Mexico and 10% on China. Also, he has signaled plans to impose tariffs on the Eurozone too, but no further details have been provided. Trump mentioned in the inauguration ceremony that funds from tariffs would be utilized to bear the burden of tax cuts on the Treasury. "Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” Trump said.

An inflated-environment with a strong economic outlook would force Fed officials to support keeping interest rates elevated for longer.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to unwind its policy restrictiveness further to boost economic growth and absorb growing risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2%. The BoC reduced its interest rates by 175 basis points (bps) to 3.25% last year. Next week, the BoC is expected to cut its borrowing rates by 25 bps to 3%.

BoC’s dovish interest rate decision would further dampen the already weak appeal of the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Canadian currency is already facing pressure as Trump is poised to impose hefty tariffs.

Source: FXSTREET

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Owen Li

Economic

The European Union economy is doing poorly. During the past decade, real gross domestic product (GDP) in the EU has grown modestly (about 17 percent), well below the United States and global average (about 26 percent and 32 percent, respectively). The outlook for the future is bleak. The obvious culprits are low productivity growth due to the lack of skilled and motivated workers, and insufficient investment in high-tech entrepreneurial ventures.

Searching for solutions to the EU’s economic struggles

The EU response has been self-defeating. Cutting educational standards to attract more people to schools and universities has proven counterproductive. Expanding public expenditure to stimulate aggregate demand has impoverished most households. Engaging in regulatory frenzies to protect buyers from allegedly irrational choices, hampering business with a vast range of bureaucratic burdens and preventing companies from making exceedingly high profits have stifled entrepreneurial spirit. In the end, these policies have left several EU economies with high public debt and saddled taxpayers with heavy burdens.

Both the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) are currently trying to shape grand new policies to save face and galvanize public opinion. Brussels has made industrial policy its new battle cry. Meanwhile, Frankfurt neglects the fight for price stability, acquiescing to Brussels’ wishes and welcoming its pledges of support.

Industrial policy means that the government uses households’ money to persuade companies to follow policymakers’ priorities and neglect market signals. In the past, the approach often focused on subsidizing selected “strategic” industries, for example agriculture, steel and energy. More recently, it has manifested in ambitious initiatives like sustainability and the green transition, involving new waves of subsidies and regulation.

Looking ahead, under the prevailing narrative, future EU industrial policies will aim to cultivate high-tech, innovative companies (once again through subsidies), with the goal of boosting productivity and accelerating economic growth.

To pursue its goals, the bloc will need substantial resources over several years to persuade companies to back risky entrepreneurial initiatives and cover their losses. Brussels will need even more funds if the private sector is reluctant to comply – the crisis that struck the car industry will not be easily forgotten.

In the worst case, the EU may be forced to establish its own champions, funded and directed by one or more EU directorates. In any case, the push for a new industrial policy will serve as a pretext for further centralization.

Not surprisingly, it is clear that the commission lacks both the necessary resources and expertise. In this context, subsidies might take the form of equity investments, potentially including golden shares.

It is also possible that Brussels and Frankfurt will strive to channel household savings toward present and future European high-tech innovators. In other words, the commission and the ECB could engage in a regulatory program that would hand out privileges to individual and institutional investors willing to buy equity in selected companies.

A third possibility consists in channeling private savings, from households and institutional investors alike, into EU securities. The resources collected would then be spent on ambitious initiatives. In this case, Eurobonds backed by all EU member states would allow virtually unlimited freedom of action with little to no accountability to the authorities in Brussels.

Eurobonds versus eurobonds

In this context, “Eurobonds” refers specifically to bonds issued by the EU or its institutions to fund collective EU projects. This differs from the broader term “eurobonds,” which generally denotes bonds denominated in euros but issued by any entity, such as corporations or non-EU governments.

Moreover, a Eurobond program would be a relief for governments that must soon start paying back the resources received under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). If implemented promptly, this strategy would alleviate or postpone the significant reimbursement challenges faced by some.

Eurobonds, therefore, would solve three major problems, at least on paper. They would allow the EU authorities to carry out old strategic projects and take on new ones. The bonds would also provide relief to some countries suffering from difficulties with public finance and bring about more centralized fiscal policy. Finally, this approach would not alarm the public, as participation would be voluntary, offering investors an appealing opportunity to diversify their portfolios.

Risks and challenges of Eurobonds

Yet, all that glitters is not gold. The bonds would have to be guaranteed by future taxpayers’ money levied by the EU authorities or by member states and then transferred to Brussels. Should the EU or the member governments fail to meet their obligations, would the guarantee also be backed by the ECB?

And how would the burden be distributed? Population or GDP measures do not necessarily match the benefits that each country would obtain by the extra expenditure made possible by the bonds. Moreover, some countries might object to the involvement of the ECB in agendas that affect EU economies outside of the eurozone.

Then, there are concerns regarding crowding-out effects and the influence of EU policymaking. Investors would probably buy Eurobonds because they believe in some kind of guarantee by the ECB, and move away from national instruments. This shift could cause the prices of national treasuries to fall and the cost of financing public debt to increase. Ultimately, taxpayers could be saddled with additional EU debt and higher interest rates on national debts. Public opposition could arise.

Another issue concerns the advisability of transferring more authority to Brussels. To date, the performance of the commission as a regulator has been less than exemplary. The advantages of shifting fiscal policy to Brussels remain unclear, yet the establishment of Eurobonds represents a significant move in that direction.

That said, technocrats are likely to eventually find satisfactory answers to the concerns raised above, leading to the introduction of Eurobonds. After all, policymakers in Brussels and across member countries are keen to expand their existing spending programs and finance new initiatives. They anticipate more borrowing, and future considerations will probably focus on the specifics – such as earmarking (linking debt to specific expenditure programs) and providing guarantees. In both instances, political expediency will likely be the main driving force.

Source:gis reports online

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January 24th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

EUR: Correction Has Been Lacklustre

EUR/USD may explore the lower end of a 1.0350-1.0450 range

Source：FXStreet

EUR/USD Trades Cautiously as Investors Assess Consequences of Trump’S Tariffs

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD ticks lower ahead of Eurozone-US flash PMI for January

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure around 1.0460

Source: FXSTREET

13MP: Govt Committed to Enabling Policies to Drive Growth in Key Industries

Source: Theedgemarkets

As Trump Returns,the U.S. is Set to Toughen its Line on China

Federal-level regulation to focus on countering China

Transitioning Biden’s restrictive AI policy on China to Trump

Technology restrictions on China to intensify

Export controls and investment restrictions

Bipartisan congressional anti-China laws

Source:gis reports online

USD/CAD Wobbles Around 1.4400 as Investors Shift Focus to Boc-fed Monetary Policy

Source: FXSTREET

Eurobonds and the Road to Inflationary Centralization

Searching for solutions to the EU’s economic struggles

Eurobonds versus eurobonds

Risks and challenges of Eurobonds

Source:gis reports online

Risk Disclosure