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Japan's factory activity in October shrank at its fastest pace in three months due to weak demand; Oil gains extend after settlement on reports of Iran preparing an Israel attack...
The US presidential election continues to monopolize the market’s interest. While the outcome is uncertain, most investors have a pretty good idea of the economic agendas of both candidates. Former president Trump is probably gearing up for a repeat of his first term of protectionism and trade wars, while Vice President Harris is expected to continue in President Biden’s footsteps.
Amidst these developments, the Fed is meeting next week. While its easing path might potentially be affected by the US election result, next week’s decision will most likely depend on the economic progress made since mid-September.
Since the September 18 Fed gathering, US data has been decent with inflation, retail sales and durable goods orders surprising on the upside. However, the labour market remains the critical factor in the Fed’s decision-making process. In this context, on Friday, the October jobs report will be published.
Economists forecast an 115k rise in non-farm payrolls, following a sizeable 254k increase in September, with both the unemployment rate and average earnings growth expected to remain stable at 4.1% and 4% respectively. It is worth nothing that there is a small possibility of this data being affected by the recent Hurricane Helene.
Wednesday’s ADP print and Thursday’s weekly jobless claims figures have potentially opened the door to an upside surprise on Friday, despite the fact that market participants are fully aware of the very weak correlation between the ADP report and the non-farm payroll data.
The market is very confident that, regardless of Friday’s data, a rate cut will be announced next week, currently assigning a 95% probability for this move. However, following the stronger US data in mid-October, certain Fed hawks openly talked about a pause in November.
A strong set of figures, especially a non-farm payrolls print above 250k, could really add weight to their arguments. While the Fed rate cut seems to be safe at this stage, a decision taken with a slight majority could mean that the Fed’s rates outlook is more uncertain than currently foreseen.
On the flip side, a downside surprise in Friday’s data releases would confirm the universally expected outcome of the November 7 Fed meeting, potentially forcing the hawks to take a back seat and just follow Chairman Powell’s lead.
The constant stream of strong US data, the imminent US election and the inconclusive outcome of the recent Japanese general election have pushed dollar/yen higher. Another positive set of US data releases on Friday could add to the recent bullish move with dollar bulls trying to push dollar/yen comfortably above the 154.52 level. On the other hand, weaker data prints could open the door to a selloff, which could become more protracted if the bears manage to break below the 151.54-151.94 area.
Canadian economic growth stalled in August after modest GDP growth in July. This print landed in line of Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and consensus expectations. Early estimates from Statistics Canada point to decent growth in September (0.3% m/m).
August’s reading was broad-based, with output expanding in 12 of 20 industries. A 0.1% m/m gain in the services sector offset the drag in goods-producing industries (-0.4% m/m).
On a weighted basis, the manufacturing sector posed the biggest headwind for August activity, falling 1.2% m/m with most subcomponents also seeing declines. Elsewhere on the goods side, mining/quarrying/oil & gas (+0.6% m/m) and construction activity (0.3% m/m) rebounded from their declines in July.
On the services side, August’s rail strike led to a 7.7% m/m drop in rail transportation activity, extending losses from July’s wildfire-induced slide in rail activity. The public administration sector was up for a fourth consecutive month (0.5% m/m), while finance and insurance (0.5% m/m) and retail trade (0.6% m/m) also helped push the overall services sector into positive territory.
Behind the advanced reading of a pickup in growth in September is an increase in the finance and insurance sector as well as construction and retail trade. Weaker expected activity in the mining/oil & gas sector offset some of the growth.
Yesterday’s GDP data confirm economic momentum is cooling after somewhat decent growth in the second quarter. Even with current guidance pointing to a strong bounce back in September, downward data revisions to prior months has third quarter growth tracking around 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) annualized. This poses downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s recently revised Q3 forecasts of 1.5% (down from a hefty 2.8% previously).
The BoC’s next rate decision isn’t until mid-December and there is still a lot of data to digest between now and then. We don’t think this will ring any alarm bells for the Bank but it puts more emphasis on their fears around a weakening economy. That said, we think the cumulative 125 bps of cuts delivered to date will do it’s part in reigniting economic activity into the end of they year. Looking ahead, more cuts are on the way, with the focus now shifting to upcoming labour market and inflation data.
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