Bearish Setups Emerging Near Major Moving Averages

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

These moving averages have repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance zone, reinforcing downward momentum whenever the price approaches them.

SELL EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93840

Entry Price

0.92600

0.94600

0.93888 +0.00226 +0.24%

29.6

Pips

Profit

0.92600

0.93544

Exit Price

0.93840

Entry Price

0.94600

Concerns about inflation appear to have largely faded for now, and tomorrow’s release of the ECB’s Survey of Inflation Expectations at the one- and three-year horizons may further ease market nerves. Consensus anticipates a decline in both measures. However, the European Central Bank might also be growing uneasy with the euro’s strength. The trade-weighted nominal euro index has reached record highs, appreciating by about 4% year-over-year. In a world where global demand is fragmenting and shrinking, a strong currency is hardly ideal for an export-driven economy.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting on June 5, with a total of approximately 65 basis points of easing expected by the end of the year.

This week, the preliminary release of the Eurozone CPI, scheduled for Friday, is the main economic highlight. Meanwhile, the ECB speakers’ calendar is quite full. Recent comments from Governing Council members, including Knot and Villeroy, have been notably dovish, pointing toward disinflationary forces gaining momentum.

François Villeroy de Galhau, ECB policymaker and governor of the Banque de France, said on Monday that the central bank "still has room for rate cuts in Europe." He also emphasized that although the region is navigating through a period of significant economic uncertainty, there is no evidence of renewed inflationary pressures, nor does he anticipate a recession in France or the broader euro area. He added that U.S. protectionist policies, such as those promoted by Trump, seem to be failing.

Separately, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that while a 25-basis-point move is possible, it should not always be seen as the default. He refrained from committing to a specific path for interest rates. In addition, the ECB is reportedly considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework to allow more flexible responses to price shocks amid an increasingly volatile global environment. This topic will be discussed during an informal retreat in Portugal on May 6–7.

Last Thursday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, also highlighted downside risks to inflation, suggesting that current conditions could lead to medium-term inflation projections falling below the ECB’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc’s recent strength against the euro has triggered speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might step in to intervene in the FX market or even reconsider its stance on negative interest rates. The sharp appreciation of the franc has fueled deflationary pressures in Switzerland, raising the prospect that the SNB may revisit the idea of reintroducing negative rates. However, the central bank is proceeding more cautiously now, mindful of avoiding political backlash, particularly from Washington. Bearish Setups Emerging Near Major Moving Averages_1

Bearish Setups Emerging Near Major Moving Averages_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF staged an upward move after reaching a local low of 0.9224 on April 10, climbing until it encountered resistance near the 100- and 200-period moving averages, located at 0.9469 and 0.9416, respectively. These moving averages have repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance zone, reinforcing downward momentum whenever the price approaches them. Adding to the confluence, the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels also align closely with the moving averages. If EUR/CHF fails to break through these barriers to the upside, it could trigger a fresh bearish wave targeting the 0.9259 area.

The RSI recently peaked near 60, not yet in overbought territory, but suggesting that the latest rally has been quite vigorous. The current price area around 0.9369 also marks a critical support zone. A strong break below this level could open the door to another leg lower.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.9384

Target price: 0.9260

Stop loss: 0.9460

Validity: May 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If buyers reemerge around this zone, we could see a fresh bullish reversal, with potential for a move toward the 150.52 area

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

142.280

Entry Price

150.520

139.500

155.814 +0.469 +0.30%

69.0

Pips

Profit

139.500

142.970

Exit Price

142.280

Entry Price

150.520

Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade agreement negotiations with several Asian countries are actively underway. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins commented that the Trump administration is engaging in “daily conversations” with China regarding tariffs.

However, China responded on Monday, clarifying that it is currently not involved in any active trade negotiations with the United States. Chinese officials reiterated their stance that no side wins in a tariff war and emphasized that discussions should be conducted on the basis of mutual respect.

On the data front, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, released last Friday, showed a slight improvement compared to the preliminary figures, likely reflecting the temporary pause in tariff escalations by President Trump. Nonetheless, the report highlighted ongoing weaknesses, with a notable deterioration in both current conditions and future expectations. Particularly concerning was the sharp rise in inflation expectations: the 1-year inflation outlook surged to 6.5% in April, up from 5.0% in March, and has nearly doubled since January. Policymakers are expected to take careful note of this trend, as it increasingly signals broad-based inflation fears rather than merely partisan divides.

Meanwhile, the optimism that U.S. trade policies could ultimately lead to a reduction in global tariffs appears to be fading. Analysts at Standard Chartered noted that multilateralism continues to erode under the Trump administration, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) sidelined and free trade agreements facing prolonged and uncertain negotiations. Adding to the downside risks, the persistence of trade uncertainty is increasingly seen as a threat to global growth prospects.

There are no scheduled Federal Reserve speakers this week, as the institution has entered its blackout period ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and rate decision set for May 7.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming May FOMC meeting stands at just 8.9%, with a 91.1% likelihood of no change. However, for the June meeting, market pricing suggests a roughly 61.9% chance of a rate cut, indicating growing expectations for policy easing as the year progresses.

Attention is also turning toward the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) meeting this Friday, which carries notable significance. Although an immediate rate hike is not expected, stronger-than-anticipated inflation readings and broader disruptions to global trade could shape the BoJ’s future policy guidance. Expectations for a rate increase have now been pushed toward later in the year, with market participants eyeing a potential window between September and December. Buyers Could Step In to Defend Key Support Levels_1

Buyers Could Step In to Defend Key Support Levels_1

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY has extended its decline from the high of 144.05 reached on April 25, dropping to a session low of 141.98. The pair is now approaching key support at 141.74—a level that previously marked the beginning of a significant upward movement. If buyers reemerge around this zone, we could see a fresh bullish reversal, with potential for a move toward the 150.52 area. On the downside, the next major support lies at 139.64, a level not seen since July 2023, which could encourage buyers to step in as the pair tests a new multi-month low.

Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 151.15 and 149.94, respectively, providing ample room for a recovery should bullish momentum build. These moving averages align closely with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, adding further confluence to the upside targets.

The RSI currently stands at 39, slightly tilted downward but still well above oversold territory. Should the 141.74 support fail to hold and a strong downside break occur, a further decline toward the 139.64 support could be on the horizon.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 142.12

Target price: 150.52

Stop loss: 139.50

Validity: May 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

As of April 29, 2025, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading around 91.74, down slightly from the intraday high of 92.05 and the low of 91.24. The market is in a consolidation mode, with investors awaiting clearer signals from Australian and Japanese economic data, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision next week....

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

91.601

Entry Price

92.500

91.200

103.192 +0.024 +0.02%

40.1

Pips

Loss

91.200

91.198

Exit Price

91.601

Entry Price

92.500

Market Overview

AUD/JPY is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events. The possibility that the RBA will keep interest rates higher for longer is weighing on the Australian dollar, while the Japanese yen is supported by safe-haven sentiment amid global economic uncertainty.

Market psychology

Market sentiment indicators show investors are cautious, with trading volumes slightly down and price volatility low. Investors are waiting for clearer signals from economic data and the RBA's interest rate decision to determine the next direction of this currency pair.

Technical analysis

AUD/JPY is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price is hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is in a consolidation state. Price moving above or below the upper/lower band may signal a new trend.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52): The price is near the Kumo cloud, indicating an unclear trend. A price move above the cloud would be a positive signal, while a fall below the cloud could signal a downtrend.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market has no clear overbought or oversold signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry (First): 91.60 – 91.80

Take Profit: 92.50

Stop Loss: 91.20

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Economic

Summary:

As of April 29, 2025, the EUR/AUD currency pair is trading around 1.7797, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events ahead. The market is in a consolidation mode, with investors awaiting clearer signals from economic data and interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the coming period...

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.77606

Entry Price

1.78500

1.77500

1.75528 +0.00261 +0.15%

10.6

Pips

Loss

1.77500

1.77495

Exit Price

1.77606

Entry Price

1.78500

Market Overview

EUR/AUD is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events. The possibility of the ECB maintaining its current monetary policy while the RBA may adjust interest rates is creating uncertainty in the market. In addition, economic data from both regions will also influence the direction of this currency pair.

Market psychology

The market sentiment indicator shows investor caution, with trading volumes slightly down and price volatility low. Investors are waiting for clearer signals from economic data and interest rate decisions from the ECB and RBA to determine the next direction of this currency pair.

Technical analysis

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market has no clear overbought or oversold signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry (First): 1.7760 – 1.7800

Take Profit: 1.7850

Stop Loss: 1.7750

If the price breaks above the Ichimoku cloud and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, it will be a positive signal for an uptrend. Conversely, if the price falls below the cloud and the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, a downtrend can be confirmed.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On April 29, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading around 1.14, down slightly from the intraday high of 1.1523 and the low of 1.0257. The market is in a consolidation mode, with investors awaiting clearer signals from US economic data and the Fed's interest rate decision next week....

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.14122

Entry Price

1.15000

1.13500

1.16258 -0.00168 -0.14%

62.2

Pips

Loss

1.13500

1.13497

Exit Price

1.14122

Entry Price

1.15000

Market Overview

EUR/USD is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events. The possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer is weighing on the USD, while the EUR is supported by expectations of easier monetary policy from the ECB.

Market psychology

The market sentiment index shows investor caution, with trading volumes slightly down and price volatility low. Investors are waiting for clearer signals from economic data and the Fed's interest rate decision to determine the next direction of this currency pair.

Technical analysis

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market has no clear overbought or oversold signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry (First): 1.14120

Take Profit: 1.1500

Stop Loss: 1.1350

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On April 29, 2025, the GBP/JPY currency pair was trading around 192.50, down slightly from the intraday high of 193.20 and the low of 192.00. The market is in a consolidation mode, with investors awaiting clearer signals from UK and Japanese economic data, as well as the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision next week....

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

191.000

Entry Price

192.200

190.000

207.445 +0.345 +0.17%

100.0

Pips

Loss

190.000

189.994

Exit Price

191.000

Entry Price

192.200

Market Overview

GBP/JPY is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events. The possibility that the BoE will keep interest rates higher for longer is weighing on the pound, while the Japanese yen is supported by safe-haven sentiment amid global economic uncertainty.

Market psychology

The market sentiment indicator shows investor caution, with trading volumes down slightly and price volatility low. Investors are waiting for clearer signals from economic data and the BoE interest rate decision to determine the next direction of this currency pair.

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY hovers around 191: Investors await clear signals from the market_1

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market has no clear overbought or oversold signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry (First): 191 – 191.6

Take Profit: 192.20

Stop Loss: 190.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

On April 29, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was trading around $93,914, down slightly from an intraday high of $95,533 and a low of $92,953...

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

94007.6

Entry Price

95500.0

93000.0

89877.1 -84.9 -0.09%

1007.5

Pips

Profit

93000.0

95015.1

Exit Price

94007.6

Entry Price

95500.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic events. The possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for an extended period is putting pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. In addition, inflows from Bitcoin ETFs are also slowing, reflecting institutional investor caution.

Market psychology

The Fear Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market is at “Neutral,” indicating a balance between fear and expectation. Trading volume is down slightly, reflecting investors’ anticipation of important monetary policy decisions and economic data.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin hovers around $94,000: Investors await clear signals from the market_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price is hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is in a consolidation state. Price moving above or below the upper/lower band may signal a new trend.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52): The price is near the Kumo cloud, indicating an unclear trend. A price move above the cloud would be a positive signal, while a fall below the cloud could signal a downtrend.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market has no clear overbought or oversold signals.