Bulls Set to Recharge

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The UK retail sales increased by 0.4% MoM in March and by 1.6% in the first quarter. Amid trade tensions, the Bank of England is expected to avoid a significant rate cut.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33479

Entry Price

1.36000

1.28300

1.33924 +0.00217 +0.16%

68.3

Pips

Loss

1.28300

1.32796

Exit Price

1.33479

Entry Price

1.36000

Fundamentals

GBPUSD rebounded during the European session on Monday, reclaiming the key level of 1.3350. The pause in the US dollar's rally, coupled with a modest improvement in market risk sentiment, facilitated the recovery of GBPUSD.

Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics on Monday revealed that retail sales in March rose by 0.4% MoM, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% decline. The sales performance was stronger than expected, which was primarily attributed to favorable weather conditions that bolstered sales for clothing and outdoor goods retailers. However, this growth was partially offset by a weak performance from supermarkets.

On a quarterly basis, the overall performance of retail sales paints an encouraging picture of consumer resilience. Retail sales for the first quarter increased by 1.6% QoQ and 1.7% YoY. These figures suggest that despite broader economic uncertainties, UK consumers remain relatively active.

However, household confidence was severely dented in April due to trade tensions and a series of annual price increases, including council tax and energy bills. As a result, the long-awaited recovery in consumer spending may prove to be short-lived.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet next month to determine the next steps. Amid signs of an economic slowdown, investors widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut. The Bank of England is likely to remain cautious.

In contrast, investors have been pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle in June, with at least three rate cuts anticipated by the end of this year. These concerns, coupled with worries about the economic impact of US trade policies, have deterred dollar bulls from making new bets and provided some support for GBPUSD. As a result, the pound is likely to continue to challenge the key resistance level of 1.3434, which it has not yet breached (the euro has already broken through its key barrier, reaching a three-year high).

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD rose during the European session on Monday, reversing the downward trend observed over the previous three trading days.

After pulling back from the short-term high of 1.3422, GBPUSD still has the potential to decline further. However, the downside should be limited by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2917, derived from the range between 1.2099 and 1.3422.

On the upside, if GBPUSD can sustainably break above 1.3354, it will resume its broader upward trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.3318

Target Price: 1.3600

Stop Loss: 1.2830

Valid Until: May 13, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3234/1.3203/1.3032

Resistance: 1.3423/1.3434/1.3519

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Polls indicate that the Liberal Party is highly likely to win the Canadian federal election. The risk of trade friction between Canada and the United States may intensify, posing a potential recession risk for the Canadian economy.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38758

Entry Price

1.41400

1.37700

1.37628 -0.00072 -0.05%

105.8

Pips

Loss

1.37700

Exit Price

1.38758

Entry Price

1.41400

Fundamentals

The market's focus has shifted to the outcome of the Canadian federal election, with the new government's stance on trade negotiations expected to influence the outlook for the Canadian dollar. Polls show that the Liberal Party is leading with nearly 43% support, compared to the Conservative Party's 39%. The market generally anticipates that the Liberal Party's compromising stance on U.S. tariff policies may continue, further escalating trade friction risks between Canada and the United States. If the Liberal Party remains in power, the 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Canadian automobiles could lead to an 18% reduction in exports, resulting in a loss of approximately CAD 12 billion.

Moreover, it is worth noting that a recent forecast report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) indicates a weak economic growth in Canada in the first quarter of this year, with a significant contraction expected in the second quarter. The report estimates that Canada's first-quarter GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 0.8%, while the second quarter is projected to contract at an annualized rate of 5.6%.

Overall, if the Liberal Party wins the Canadian federal election today, the Canadian economy is likely to face a recession risk, and the Canadian dollar will come under depreciation pressure.

Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart, after a sustained decline, USDCAD halted its downward trend last week, closing a bullish Doji candlestick near the support level of 1.3880. This suggests strong support at this level, and USDCAD is likely to rebound upward in the short term.

Looking at the moving average system, the MA60 and MA144 of USDCAD remain in a bullish alignment, indicating that the long-term upward trend of USDCAD has not been broken.

For short-term trading, it is recommended that traders adopt a strategy of buying on dips, using last week's low of 1.3780 as a stop-loss level. If a new low is reached, traders should consider closing their positions to limit losses.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.3860

Target Price: 1.4140

Stop Loss: 1.3770

Valid Until: May 12, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3780/1.3600

Resistance: 1.4027/1.4158

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

AUD/JPY retreats as rising expectations of an RBA rate cut weigh on the Australian Dollar. While easing US-China tensions could cushion losses, the Yen's safe-haven appeal weakens, limiting downside pressure on the pair.

SELL AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

91.800

Entry Price

86.000

93.500

103.199 -0.454 -0.44%

38.7

Pips

Profit

86.000

91.413

Exit Price

91.800

Entry Price

93.500

The Australian Dollar slipped against the Japanese Yen on Monday, halting a three-day rally, as growing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) weighed on the currency. AUD/JPY was last seen trading around 91.80 during early European hours, retreating from recent highs as sentiment toward the Aussie cooled.

Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut at the RBA’s May 20 meeting, following forecasts last week from Westpac analysts. The bank cited rising economic headwinds and mounting global trade uncertainties as key drivers behind its projection. Given the RBA’s explicitly data-dependent stance, market participants are finding it increasingly difficult to confidently predict policy moves beyond the immediate term adding a layer of caution to Australian Dollar positions.

The RBA’s potential pivot to looser monetary policy comes amid a broader reassessment of global growth prospects. Softening inflation figures, tepid consumer spending, and weaker-than-expected labor market data in Australia have collectively fueled expectations that policymakers may soon need to act preemptively to prevent a sharper slowdown.

While the prospect of lower Australian rates weighs heavily on AUD/JPY, the currency pair could find some relief from emerging signs of a thaw in US-China trade relations. On Friday, Beijing announced it would exempt certain US imports from its 125% retaliatory tariffs, igniting cautious optimism that the bitter trade war between the world's two largest economies might finally be easing. Australia, as a major supplier of commodities to China, remains highly sensitive to any shifts in Chinese demand or broader trade dynamics.

Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, emphasized that tariff rollbacks could create meaningful opportunities for exporters, including key Australian sectors such as agriculture, resources, and education. Still, optimism was tempered over the weekend after a Chinese embassy spokesperson told Reuters there were "no ongoing consultations or negotiations" regarding tariffs with the US, cautioning Washington against "creating confusion."

Such conflicting signals from Beijing have led to a more cautious risk tone among investors, even as global trade sentiment shows tentative signs of stabilizing.

On the Japanese side, the safe-haven Yen has weakened slightly, providing an offsetting force against Aussie headwinds. Improving global trade sentiment has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Last week, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and newly appointed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met privately on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington. While Kato offered few specifics, he indicated that the US and Japan would maintain "close and constructive dialogue" on currency issues a comment suggesting that while Japan remains vigilant about Yen volatility, active intervention appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/JPY faced a notable rejection around the 92.00 resistance level early Monday, reinforcing concerns over fading buying momentum. After pushing into this horizontal resistance zone, price action shows early signs of a potential local bearish correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to tilt lower, suggesting a loss of upside momentum. Traders will be watching closely to see if AUD/JPY can hold above the key 91.50–91.60 support zone; a decisive break lower could open the door for a deeper pullback toward the 86.00 psychological level.

Intraday bias leans bearish unless 92.00 is breached convincingly. Thus, a tactical short position targeting a move back toward the 91.00 area appears attractive for short-term traders, provided risk is carefully managed above the 92.00 breakout zone.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 91.80

STOP LOSS: 93.50

TAKE PROFIT: 86.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The 8-hour RSI has reached 66.90, approaching overbought territory, which could invite selling pressure from the resistance zone.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63950

Entry Price

0.62000

0.64700

0.66546 +0.00026 +0.04%

9.3

Pips

Profit

0.62000

0.63857

Exit Price

0.63950

Entry Price

0.64700

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for the United States has fallen for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting growing concerns among households. The indicator dropped by 4.8 points in April, reaching 52.2—its lowest reading in 33 months. Despite the decline, the figure still exceeded market expectations, which had forecast a reading of 50.8.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations Index fell sharply to 47.3 from 52.6, marking its lowest level since July 2022. According to the accompanying report, while the decline in Current Conditions during April was relatively modest, the Expectations component plunged, weighed down by deteriorations in both personal finances and broader business conditions. Expectations have now dropped a steep 32% since January—the largest quarterly percentage decline recorded since the recession of 1990.

Inflation expectations also moved higher. The 1-year inflation outlook surged to 6.5% in April from 5% in March, although it still came in slightly below the 6.7% consensus forecast. For the 5-year horizon, inflation expectations climbed to 4.4% from the previous 4.1%, aligning with market projections.

On the geopolitical front, President Trump reiterated that the U.S. remains engaged with China over trade issues, though Chinese authorities denied that any active tariff negotiations are underway. Bloomberg reported that China may consider lifting tariffs on select U.S. goods; however, Chinese officials largely sidestepped questions regarding potential exemptions.

Looking ahead, market participants are preparing for a busy data calendar next week, which includes the U.S. JOLTS report for March, the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth for 2025, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

As for monetary policy, traders are pricing in a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, according to Prime Market Terminal data. Nonetheless, market expectations suggest that the Fed’s policy rate could end the year at 3.45%, implying approximately 86 basis points of easing.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to strike a cautious tone regarding monetary policy. Minutes from its March 31–April 1 meeting reveal that while May’s meeting could provide an opportunity to reassess the outlook, the RBA has not committed to any specific changes. This cautious approach underscores the mixed signals emerging from the Australian economy.

Australia’s labor market, for instance, is showing early signs of strain. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in March, slightly better than the expected 4.2%, but job creation disappointed, with just 32.2K positions added compared to the forecasted 40K. Moreover, the Westpac Leading Index, which tracks future economic momentum, slowed to 0.6% in March, down from 0.9% the month before—suggesting a loss of growth traction.

The RBA stressed that risks to both the upside and downside remain and reiterated its data-driven approach to balancing inflation pressures against the risk of slower growth.

Improving U.S.-China trade sentiment has helped lift global equity markets recently. However, this shift has slightly diminished demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc (CHF), which had previously strengthened significantly amid escalating tariff tensions. The CHF’s strong performance has raised speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might intervene in currency markets or consider adjusting its longstanding negative interest rate policy should the currency’s appreciation threaten export competitiveness. Potential Downturn Looms as AUD/USD Tests Key Barrier_1

Potential Downturn Looms as AUD/USD Tests Key Barrier_1

Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair recently climbed to a local high of 0.6441, briefly surpassing the previous peak at 0.6410 before facing sharp rejection. This price action could signal that the 0.6440–0.6450 zone is becoming a significant resistance area, raising the possibility of a downside correction from current levels. Supporting this view, the 8-hour RSI has reached 66.90, approaching overbought territory, which could invite selling pressure from the resistance zone.

Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are converging around 0.6290, indicating that the average price of the last 100 and 200 candles is clustered near this level. Statistically, this could act as a magnet for price retracements, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective move toward this zone. Below that, the next key support lies at 0.6200, a level that has historically acted as a strong floor for price action and could serve as a target should bearish momentum persist.

However, should AUD/USD manage to break above 0.6450 with conviction, the bullish trend could extend further, invalidating near-term bearish signals and opening the door for additional upside gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6395

Target price: 0.6200

Stop loss: 0.6470

Validity: May 06, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This rally has been fueled in part by improving geopolitical conditions and continued institutional adoption.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

91300.0

Entry Price

108000.0

85000.0

89523.7 +496.0 +0.56%

Pips

EXPIRED

85000.0

94678.0

Exit Price

91300.0

Entry Price

108000.0

As Bitcoin reclaims its February highs, a shift in market sentiment is becoming increasingly evident—especially through the lens of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are now turning positive after a period of subdued activity.

All 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive session of net capital inflows on Thursday, attracting over $2.8 billion between April 17 and 24, according to data compiled by SoSoValue. This consistent wave of investor interest highlights a renewed appetite for crypto exposure via regulated vehicles.

Thursday’s session alone saw a net inflow of $442 million across the group, a slight moderation compared to the combined $900 million seen in the two prior sessions. Notably, the third-largest single-day inflow of the year occurred on Tuesday, totaling an impressive $936.4 million.

Leading the charge was BlackRock’s IBIT—currently the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF—with $327.3 million in net inflows for the day. Following closely were Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB with $97 million and Bitwise’s BITB with over $10 million. Invesco’s BTCO also saw healthy participation, recording $7.5 million in net inflows.

The remaining U.S. Bitcoin ETFs closed the session neutral, posting no daily inflows or outflows, but still contributing to the broader bullish trend.

As of April 24, 2025, updated data from SoSoValue shows that IBIT has amassed $40.9 billion in total inflows and holds $54.8 billion in assets under management (AUM)—securing its status as the dominant Bitcoin ETF globally.

“BlackRock now holds 2.77% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply,” noted analysts at Arkham Intelligence on Friday, referencing the cryptocurrency’s capped supply of 21 million tokens. The firm also pointed out that IBIT alone added more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin this week amid intensifying institutional demand.

In total, the 12 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively drawn $2.8 billion in net inflows over the last five trading sessions, underscoring the strength of the ongoing bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

At the regulatory level, newly appointed SEC Chairman Paul Atkins made his first public appearance at a crypto-focused roundtable on Friday. In his keynote speech, he reassured market participants that the Commission will continue to shape a policy framework that supports digital asset innovation. He emphasized the SEC’s commitment to developing a “rational, fit-for-purpose framework” in anticipation of congressional action that may soon define clearer rules for crypto market structure. BTC Bulls May Accelerate if Key Support Holds_1

BTC Bulls May Accelerate if Key Support Holds_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has staged a notable recovery from its local low of $74,585 recorded on April 7, climbing steadily to the current level near $95,000. This rally has been fueled in part by improving geopolitical conditions and continued institutional adoption, allowing BTC to break above its 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently positioned at $90,837 and $90,083, respectively—further reinforcing bullish momentum.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now surged to 72 on the daily chart, signaling that the market may be entering overbought territory. This raises the possibility of a short-term correction, especially if buyers begin to take profits near recent highs.

Should a pullback occur, the $91,290 level—previously acting as both resistance and support—could serve as a key zone to watch. Holding above this level would be a strong indication that the broader uptrend remains intact and may even set the stage for a renewed rally.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 91300

Target price: 108000

Stop loss: 85000

Validity: May 06, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Driven by the prospects of increased production by OPEC+, WTI crude oil is still expected to post a weekly decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that oil prices may continue to fall further.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

62.158

Entry Price

57.000

64.200

56.922 -0.311 -0.54%

262.8

Pips

Profit

57.000

59.530

Exit Price

62.158

Entry Price

64.200

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil prices declined during the European trading session on Friday, with trading prices breaking below $62.00 per barrel. Despite the recent recovery in oil prices, the potential for increased production by OPEC+ has intensified market concerns over supply overhangs, maintaining the downward trend for the week.

Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, stated that with the addition of new production and continued restrictions on demand, oil prices may decline further this year. Although crude oil futures have rebounded over the past two weeks, trading near $68 per barrel, this is still about 9% lower than the trading prices before President Trump announced significant tariffs on other countries on April 2. Fatih Birol noted that the IEA believes "demand growth in the market is slow. If there are no other surprises, we may expect further downward pressure on oil prices."

He also mentioned that there are still many uncertainties, "If there are positive changes in the trade war context, it may boost the global economic outlook. We may see oil demand slightly higher than the current level." He added that it is also difficult to predict the direction of Iran's oil exports in the negotiations between Iran and the Trump administration. Trump earlier indicated a willingness to meet with the Iranian President or Supreme Leader.

Market Observations: From a fundamental perspective, crude oil prices do not seem to have been affected by recent inventory data, as investors are still focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue. Trump hinted that peace talks are making progress, but Russia stated that Zelensky refuses to make concessions.

Further conflicts in the region may prolong supply concerns, which is positive for energy commodities, although the expectation of the next OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure.

Rebound Momentum Ends, Market to Return to Decline_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices continued to trade within an ascending channel on Friday. Currently, oil prices are hovering around $62.83 per barrel, in a stage of rebounding from the bottom. However, the four-hour chart shows that WTI crude oil prices are in a head-and-shoulders top pattern, indicating that there may be some pullbacks in the future.

In terms of moving averages, prices are currently trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming that the overall path of least resistance remains downward. These moving averages have provided dynamic resistance during the last major pullback, reinforcing the bearish market structure.

The stochastic oscillator is moving downward from the midline level, indicating that short-term selling momentum is increasing, but it is not yet oversold.

Meanwhile, the relative strength index is also turning downward around 50, indicating that momentum is beginning to diverge downward, with more room for decline before reaching oversold conditions.

Near-term resistance is located at the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($63.77), while immediate support is near the $61.80 level. Traders are advised to mainly take short positions on rallies.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 62.50

Target Price: 57.00

Stop Loss: 64.20

Valid Until: May 10, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 61.37/61.14/59.83

Resistance: 63.13/63.77/64.13

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/CHF pair rebounded during the Asian session, trading around 0.8320 as optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations bolsters the US Dollar.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.83001

Entry Price

0.84500

0.82000

0.79552 -0.00030 -0.04%

100.1

Pips

Loss

0.82000

0.81993

Exit Price

0.83001

Entry Price

0.84500

The US Dollar is regaining ground against the Swiss Franc, with the USD/CHF pair bouncing back from recent losses and trading near 0.8320 during Friday’s Asian session. This upward momentum in the Greenback comes as investor sentiment shows signs of improvement, driven largely by emerging optimism surrounding the potential easing of US-China trade tensions.

According to a Bloomberg report, China is currently reviewing the possibility of suspending its hefty 125% tariffs on a select group of US imports, notably medical equipment, ethane, and aircraft leasing. The development, though not officially confirmed, has been positively received by markets. Sources close to the matter suggest that Chinese officials are seriously contemplating waivers for aircraft leasing tariffs, a move that could provide a symbolic and practical de-escalation in trade relations with Washington.

Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, offered a cautiously optimistic view on the situation, stating that it is “encouraging” to see both countries revisiting the topic of tariffs. He added that while there is chatter about the development of exclusion lists for certain categories of imports, no formal announcements or policy changes have yet emerged. Both the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are said to be in the process of collecting stakeholder input, signaling the early stages of a potentially significant policy shift.

This cautious optimism, coupled with further signs of constructive dialogue with key Asian allies such as South Korea and Japan, has provided tailwinds for the US Dollar. As the US works to reestablish more stable trade frameworks under the Biden administration, the Greenback is drawing strength from the perception of diplomatic and economic progress on the global stage.

Swiss Franc’s Resilience Complicates SNB’s Policy Landscape

On the other side of the pair, the Swiss Franc remains a formidable force, recently achieving its strongest level in over a decade against the USD as of April 21. Investors continue to flock to the CHF as a classic safe-haven play amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about global economic growth. This demand has created an upward pressure on the Swiss currency that is proving increasingly difficult for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to manage.

The persistent appreciation of the Franc has led to a notable decline in import prices, undermining the SNB’s inflation target range of 0% to 2%. With inflation now hovering dangerously close to zero, the central bank faces mounting challenges in achieving its mandate for price stability. Compounding the issue is the SNB’s limited room for maneuver on interest rates, which currently sit at a modest 0.25% and are widely expected to be lowered further in the coming quarters.

Given the narrowing efficacy of conventional monetary policy, a growing chorus of analysts argue that direct currency intervention may prove more effective than additional rate reductions. Such interventions—while controversial—could provide immediate relief from the upward pressure on the Franc, without further compressing domestic lending margins or destabilizing the financial sector. However, the SNB remains adamant that any such actions would be aimed strictly at maintaining price stability and not at manipulating the currency for competitive advantage.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is displaying signs of a bullish correction. The pair has reclaimed ground above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) and recently broke through a key bearish trendline, suggesting the potential for continued upward momentum in the near term.

Supporting the bullish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited overbought territory and is beginning to flash early positive signals once more. These developments suggest that the pair may be poised for further gains, particularly if it can maintain support above the 0.8240 level.We are eyeing 0.8380 as the next significant resistance zone, with the broader trading range expected to fall between 0.8200 and 0.8450.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8300

STOP LOSS: 0.8200

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8450

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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