During the Asian session on Tuesday (November 28), WTI crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 75.3 dollars per barrel. Yesterday, oil prices fluctuated widely, closing a small bear candle with long upper and lower shadows, and the gap due to opening lower still was not filled. Yesterday, oil prices basically retraced as expected. After the hourly candlestick chart showed a reversal signal of one bear candle covering two bull candles, oil prices declined continuously at the hourly level. Eventually, the price began to rebound after the decline stopped at 74.1, rebounding by $2 and rising as high as around 76.3. The main factor leading the decline in oil prices was news on Monday that Saudi Arabia was seeking output cuts from other OPEC+ members, while some members expressed opposition. However, in the face of the imminent meeting, the bears did not persist, and bears taking profits pushed the rebound in oil prices. At the moment, the market is extremely weak. In other words, the bulls are insecure as they have less expectations about the meeting in 2 days. Currently, investors are worried about their positions, just because the market is now dominated by bearish momentum. If bulls want to regain confidence, production cuts need to be expanded, but the probability is very small. For bulls, they may just want Thursday to come faster. As for the outcome of the meeting, my view is that OPEC+ still has influence, and member countries still need the organization. After weighing the pros and cons, there may be slight bearish momentum in the end, and the original production cuts may be maintained. In this regard, after a deep fall in oil prices, there is still a good opportunity for traders to try to go long.  

Data: US annualized new home sales in October were 679,000, with an expectation of 723,000.  

Today's attention: US FHFA home price index for September, consumer confidence index for November consultation, API crude oil inventories, and FOMC members' speeches. Traders should mainly focus on the relevant news and results of this week's OPEC+ meeting.  

Oil prices fluctuated and fell yesterday under the news, falling as low as 74.1, and then rebounding quickly to 76.2. Finally, the price closed with a Doji Star with long upper and lower shadows, showing resistance to decline. At present, the market has accumulated a lot of gaming positions in the 74-75 area. If it cannot break below 73.8 at the beginning of the week, crude oil may have to rebound strongly and probably can reach 77.1 or higher. Currently, the golden cross of MACD begins to widen upwards in the 1-hour K-line, and a bullish piercing line has shown. Perhaps, the Asian market will rebound slightly, and the Doji Star in the daily chart also seems to show a stable trend in the short term. During the day, traders should focus on the support situation around 73.8, and the upper resistance around 77.1 should also be paid attention. Aggressive traders can trade in this range and mainly focus on the opportunity to enter long positions at lows.  

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 76.000

Target Price: 73.800

Stop Loss: 76.200

Support: 73.800/72.500

Resistance: 77.100/78.500

During the Asian session on Tuesday (November 28), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 2015. Sales of new US homes fell more than expected in October, again indicating the US economy is gradually weaker. The market continued to trade an early Fed's rate cut, which sent the dollar index and US bond yields lower, boosting gold prices. Gold fluctuated by $18 yesterday in the range of $2000-$2018, but the trading opportunity came only after the release of the US data. After surging and then falling back to $2005 in the Asian session, gold prices rallied to the intraday high of $2018 in the US session. Investors who took the opportunity to go long perhaps could make some profits. Recently, the market has been trading weaker economic data and interest rate cuts, but we should know it's not the right time yet. In the United States, interest payments on bonds now account for about 10% of fiscal spending. To meet such high fiscal spending, large numbers of bonds would need to be issued. This will make the supply and demand continue to be out of balance. However, it's impossible for a sharp decrease in spending as next year is an election year. Thus, perhaps meeting the fiscal spending is the priority. While the current bond supply and demand imbalance has eased under speculation, it doesn't change materially. High-interest rates are likely to stay longer. Thus, we maintain the view that gold prices will fluctuate widely this year and the beginning of next year, and will seek to break through the second half of next year to hit new highs. At present, the gold price still hasn't effectively broken through the double-top resistance, so investors can try to go short with small positions.

Data: US annualized new home sales in October were 679,000, with an expectation of 723,000. The median price of new homes was $409,300, which was the lowest since August 2021, down 17.6% YoY. New home inventories rose for the third straight month in October to their highest level since January this year. US mortgage rates peaked at a multi-year peak of about 8% in October, and last week's Freddie Mac data showed that US 30-year term mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week to 7.29%.

Today's focus is on the US FHFA home price index for September, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the FOMC members' speeches.

The gold price continued to strengthen on the last trading day, closing with a small bull candle, and fluctuating above the price center in the 4-hour chart. Currently, looking at the 1-hour and the daily charts, there is a bearish signal of negative divergence, which makes it difficult to maintain bullish during the day. Gold prices may have hour-level pullbacks, and then we will see if they can drive pullbacks in the daily chart. If the daily chart closes with a bearish candle, it basically announces the end of this wave of rallies. In the market ahead, investors can try to go short at high with small positions but should not chase the market. Today's reference trading range should be 1998-2018. Traders can buy low and sell high within the range.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 2018

Target Price: 1998

Stop Loss: 2023

Support: 2000.000/1985.000

Resistance: 2020.000/2032.000

The Japanese yen has kicked off the week on a positive note, with USD/JPY trading at 148.87, reflecting a 0.39% decline. Market focus is now directed towards the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Core CPI, a key inflation gauge. The indicator, expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, holds significance amid rising speculation about the BoJ's policy tightening. Despite inflation consistently surpassing the 2% target, the central bank remains cautious, emphasizing the need for substantial wage growth. Meanwhile, the US concluded the week with a varied PMI report, witnessing a decline in Manufacturing PMI but a slight improvement in Services PMI. USD/JPY faces technical levels with support at 148.88 and resistance at 149.95 and 150.61. As the currency pair hovers around 149.00, its trajectory depends on the evolving momentum of the US Dollar, especially in the absence of major Japanese economic data this week. The technical analysis suggests a potential retest of 149.56 before a significant downward trend, targeting 148.10.

In the European session, the Japanese yen, represented by USD/JPY, has displayed strength, experiencing a 0.39% dip to 148.87. The upcoming focal point for traders is the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Core CPI, a crucial metric in the central bank's inflation assessment. The anticipated October reading of 3.4%, consistent with September, aligns with speculation about the BoJ's policy direction.

Japan's inflation narrative has been characterized by a gradual uptrend, as reflected in the nationwide core CPI climbing to 2.9% for October from the previous month's 2.8%. Despite this, the BoJ has maintained a cautious stance, linking sustained inflation to substantial wage growth driving domestic demand.

The US concluded its week with a PMI report signaling a mixed economic landscape. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.4, below the consensus of 49.8, indicating the sector's ongoing challenges. In contrast, Services PMI exhibited weak growth, rising slightly to 50.8 in October from 50.6 in the previous month.

USD/JPY faces technical considerations, testing support at 148.88, with further support at 147.74. Resistance levels are identified at 149.95 and 150.61. As the currency pair moves around the 149.00 mark, its trajectory hinges on the prevailing momentum of the US Dollar. Notably, the absence of significant Japanese economic data this week leaves the pair reliant on USD dynamics.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has broken out of its uptrend channel, signaling a sideways movement. The analysis suggests a potential retest of 149.56 before a significant downward trend, targeting 148.10. Traders await the unfolding US Dollar momentum, considering the limited economic data from Japan in the current week.

The currency market remains attentive to the evolving BoJ stance, especially in the context of persistently above-target inflation, setting the stage for potential policy shifts at the BoJ's upcoming meeting on December 19.

ENTRY   PRICE:148.800

STOP LOSS   :  149.600

TAKE PROFIT : 147.400

EXP : 11/12/23

The GBP/USD currency pair begins the week with a steady performance, but beneath the surface, signs of momentum loss in its recent recovery rally emerge. Key events, including US GDP, inflation data, and jobless claims, are anticipated to shape the market sentiment leading up to the final central bank meeting of the year. Bank of England Governor Bailey's commitment to no rate cuts in the "foreseeable future" adds a layer of certainty. However, technical analysis reveals divergence and potential resistance challenges for the GBP/USD pair, signaling a cautious outlook amid ongoing global economic shifts.

The GBP/USD currency pair is navigating a relatively calm start to the week, concealing subtle indicators of waning momentum within its recent recovery rally. As the financial markets keep a close eye on key economic events, the spotlight remains on how upcoming data points will influence the final central bank meeting scheduled for December 13.

The lens through which all data, particularly from the US, is currently scrutinized is focused on its implications for the year-end central bank gathering and the accompanying new projections. Encouraging data since the last meeting has set the tone, and this week promises another data influx, including the October PCE inflation data, a crucial metric for the Federal Reserve. Additionally, third-quarter GDP figures, ISM manufacturing data, and jobless claims will contribute to shaping expectations.

While the US takes center stage, other global economic players also present noteworthy data points. Flash HICP inflation data for the Eurozone, PMIs from China, CPI figures for Australia, and a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) add to the week's economic narrative. The abundance of central bank speakers scheduled to make appearances further ensures a dynamic and alert market environment.

Bank of England Governor Bailey set the tone for the week by pushing back against expectations for rate cuts from Q2, emphasizing his expectation of no cuts for the "foreseeable future." Though a somewhat vague commitment, it aligns with the current stance of policymakers. Bailey underscored the relative ease of the journey from peak to present levels, acknowledging the challenges in achieving the next milestones.

Turning attention to technical analysis, the GBP/USD pair, which has displayed strength against the dollar this month, now encounters crucial tests. The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels emerge as significant hurdles, particularly the former, coinciding with the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern observed over the summer. While breaching the 50% level, the pair has retraced gains, trading marginally higher on the day. Notably, divergence in stochastic and potential lower highs in the MACD histogram suggest a potential loss of momentum in a pivotal resistance zone.

In summary, while the surface may exhibit a calm start, underlying dynamics suggest a nuanced market sentiment. The GBP/USD pair faces critical challenges, and the outcome of key economic events will likely steer its trajectory in the coming days. Investors and traders are advised to remain vigilant and interpret the evolving signals in the context of a complex and interconnected global financial landscape.

ENTRY PRICE: 1.25400

STOP LOSS : 1.2700

TAKE PROFIT :1.2000

EXP : 11/12/23

The Australian dollar continues its impressive rally against the US dollar, gaining 3.8% since November 14th. With a focus on the upcoming retail sales data for October, expectations are set at a modest 0.1% growth compared to the robust 0.9% gain in September. The retail sales figure could influence market sentiment towards the Aussie, especially after the Reserve Bank of Australia's recent decision to raise rates. Additionally, the RBA is undergoing significant changes, with the Australian government introducing legislation following an independent review. RBA Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming speech and insights into the central bank's plans add further intrigue to the Australian dollar's trajectory. Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for AUD/USD, with key resistance levels and strategic entry points discussed.

The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its winning streak against the US dollar (USD), showcasing a remarkable 3.8% gain since November 14th. As the currency maintains its upward trajectory, market attention turns to crucial economic indicators and developments within the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

An impending event on the economic calendar is the release of Australian retail sales data for October. Analysts anticipate a more subdued growth rate of 0.1%, a notable decline from the robust 0.9% gain recorded in September. The September figure, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending, played a role in supporting the RBA's decision to raise interest rates at the November meeting. Investors closely watch this release, as a deviation from the expected retail sales figure could influence sentiment towards the Australian dollar. Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak in Hong Kong on Tuesday, providing a potential glimpse into the central bank's plans leading up to its meeting on December 5th.

However, the Australian financial landscape is undergoing significant changes. Following an independent review, the Australian government has announced legislation aimed at overhauling the RBA. This move follows criticism of the RBA's earlier commitment not to raise rates until 2024, only to subsequently embark on a tightening campaign that has elevated the cash rate to 4.35%. The RBA's new Governor, Michele Bullock, has expressed support for these sweeping changes.

In a recent statement, Governor Bullock indicated that inflation had peaked, with upside risks being domestically driven. Despite inflation receding from 8.0% to 5.5% in less than a year, she emphasized the prolonged timeline for inflation to decrease further to 3%. The RBA's target inflation range is 2%-3%. Remaining hawkish, the RBA raised rates earlier this month after keeping them steady for four consecutive meetings.

Turning to technical analysis, the AUD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.6618, with additional barriers at 0.6650. Key support levels are identified at 0.6559 and 0.6526. The market's recent bullish momentum is underlined by a successful retest of the breakout above the range zone resistance at 0.6523, confirming the strength of the newfound support. Traders are strategically considering buying market dips to capitalize on anticipated upward movements.

In conclusion, the Australian dollar's upward trajectory, coupled with pivotal economic data and the ongoing transformation within the RBA, creates a dynamic landscape for traders and investors. The retail sales release and Governor Bullock's insights hold the potential to shape market sentiment, adding layers of complexity to the Australian dollar's recent gains.

ENTRY PRICE : 0.6600

STOP LOSS :0.6500

TAKE PROFIT :  0.6650

 EXP :   11/12/23

Despite high interest rates constraining household budgets, Canadian household spending unexpectedly rebounded. Data released by Statistics Canada revealed a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales for September, far exceeding the market expectation of 0%. Sales in four out of nine subsectors showed growth, with the largest increase seen in sales for auto and auto parts dealers, rising by 1.5% in September.

Retail sales excluding automobiles also grew by 0.2%, contrary to an expected decline of 0.1%. Although the overall data rebounded significantly, the details in the report indicate that consumer spending remains somewhat subdued.

Core retail sales, excluding gas stations and auto dealers, declined by 0.3% in September. The main contributors to the decline were sales from sporting goods, hobby, and musical instrument retailers, as well as beer, wine, and liquor stores, indicating that consumers cut back on some non-essential purchases.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that policymakers may have done enough to tame inflation. This statement reinforced the market and economists' expectations that interest rates may have peaked.

Macklem anticipates continued economic softness in Canada over the next few quarters, suggesting that inflation will face greater downward pressure. He believes that monetary policy tightening is effective, and interest rates may now have enough restraint to bring prices back to stability. However, he reiterated that the central bank is prepared to raise rates again if high inflation persists.

Following the release of the September retail sales report in Canada until the close, the USDCAD challenged the 1.3600 level, targeting the 1.3500 level directly. Currently, the market is retesting 1.3650, but overall sentiment remains firmly controlled by bears.

The USDCAD is currently hovering within the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day SMAs but remains above the mid-term uptrend line. The asset found support near the 1.3655 level, and the bearish correction may be coming to an end.

Technical oscillators are showing signs of weakening bearish momentum. The MACD is slightly below its trigger line and zero line, while the RSI is below the 50 level and preparing for an upward crossover, indicating a potential bullish trend in the coming trading days.

However, during Friday's trading, the USDCAD not only broke below the consolidation of the triangle pattern but also breached the upward trend line connecting lows since mid-July. This suggests that, even with a short-term retracement, it may not evolve into a reversal of the trend. Further downward movement could open the path to the obstacle at the October 10 low of 1.3565 and then challenge the 200-day SMA at 1.3520.

Overall, the USDCAD shows signs of short-term recovery, but the mid-term trend has broken the pattern of setting higher highs and higher lows since July 14, indicating a shift to the downside in the future. In terms of trading, the recommended strategy is to go short at highs.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1.3690

Target Price: 1.3453

Stop Loss: 1.3820

Valid Until: 2023-12-11 23:55:00

Support: 1.3595, 1.3556, 1.3515

Resistance: 1.3665, 1.3692, 1.3712