Short-Term Correction Expected, Medium-Term Trend Likely to Resume Downward

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The euro has faced short-term pressure following the ECB's rate cut but has rebounded to a six-week high, supported by the hawkish stance and pause signals from the ECB meeting. In contrast, New Zealand's recent high interest rates, along with raw material exports and commodity prices, provide fundamental support for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The New Zealand dollar remains relatively robust in the short term.

SELL EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.89162

Entry Price

1.81700

1.91250

2.01411 -0.00081 -0.04%

208.8

Pips

Loss

1.81700

1.91250

Exit Price

1.89162

Entry Price

1.91250

Fundamentals

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, as widely expected by the market. The ECB stated that this rate cut "comes with significant uncertainty" and remains committed to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach, thus not providing forward guidance on future rate movements.

In its latest economic projections, the ECB currently forecasts that the overall inflation rate will average 2.0% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, down 0.3 percentage points from the March forecast. The overall inflation rate is expected to return to the target level of 2.0% in 2027. This revision is primarily due to lower energy prices and a stronger euro.

Core inflation is projected to decline to 2.4% in 2025 and to 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027, essentially in line with previous forecasts.

On the growth front, the ECB forecasts that real GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. Although the 2025 GDP forecast remains unchanged due to strong first-quarter performance, the ECB acknowledges that economic growth for the remainder of the year is likely to be softer, partly due to trade-related uncertainties.

Global demand weakness and potential retaliation against US tariffs may continue to weigh on exports and business investment. However, an increase in public investment, particularly in defense and infrastructure, is expected to provide some support for economic growth in the medium term.

Short-Term Correction Expected, Medium-Term Trend Likely to Resume Downward_1

Technical Analysis

The unexpected hawkish outcome of the ECB meeting has led to a short-term rebound and stabilization in EURNZD. Technically, the current price is in a downward correction structure, with a short-term bearish bias. However, there is a significant medium-term opportunity for a substantial pullback, as the monthly chart structure remains in a head-and-shoulders top pattern. Close attention should be paid to a potential breakout above 1.9169. If this level is breached, the downward structure will be invalidated.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.8945

Target Price: 1.8170

Stop Loss: 1.9125

Deadline: June 21, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.8859/1.8809/1.8713

Resistance: 1.8978/1.9048/1.9093

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Recent US economic data has been lackluster, with ADP employment figures falling short of expectations. If today's non-farm payrolls report underperforms expectations, it could lead to further declines in the US dollar.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

98.950

Entry Price

96.900

100.500

99.000 +0.050 +0.05%

48.0

Pips

Profit

96.900

98.470

Exit Price

98.950

Entry Price

100.500

Fundamentals

The US economy is currently mired in a classic stagflation trap characterized by "low growth + high inflation." The May ADP employment report showed an increase of only 37,000 jobs, the lowest since March 2023. The ISM Services PMI fell below the 50-mark to 49.9, indicating a contraction in economic activity. However, the Prices Paid Index soared to a 30-month high, highlighting the increasing pressure on businesses to pass on costs. This contradiction has left the Federal Reserve in a policy dilemma—cutting rates could fuel inflation, while maintaining high interest rates could accelerate economic recession.

More critically, the Trump administration has proposed eliminating the debt ceiling, attempting to ease short-term pressures through unconstrained fiscal expansion. The US national debt has already climbed to $36.94 trillion. If this policy is implemented, the deficit could expand by $3.6 trillion over the next decade, which will significantly increase the risk of debt default. After Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, global central banks accelerated the reduction of US dollar assets, dealing a systemic blow to the dollar's status as a reserve currency. The share of renminbi (RMB) settlements rose to 4.99%, and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are shifting towards RMB trade settlements. This policy not only weakens the dollar's credibility but also triggers market panic over "fiscal dominance of currency"—as the White House sacrifices long-term stability for short-term stimulus, the foundation of the dollar as a store of value is being eroded.

It is worth noting that the US will release its May non-farm payrolls data later today. If the data underperforms expectations, it will further weigh on the already weak US dollar.

Technical Analysis

From the daily chart perspective, the candlestick structure of the US Dollar Index has formed a head-and-shoulders top pattern, with the neckline at 99.10 already breached. This opens up further downside potential for the index, with the first target potentially falling to 96.60.

In terms of technical indicators, the daily MACD's fast and slow lines have formed a death cross, and the RSI is around 43, not yet in the oversold territory. This suggests that market sentiment remains bearish, with strong selling pressure still in place.

In conclusion, traders are advised to focus on shorting rallies.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 99.00

Target Price: 96.90

Stop Loss: 100.50

Deadline: June 20, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 98.26/97.64

Resistance: 100.38/101.77

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

If the price manages to find support and stage a firm rejection at this level again, we could see a renewed wave of buying interest initiating from these local lows.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

101902.6

Entry Price

106000.0

99000.0

91015.1 +1053.1 +1.17%

1146.8

Pips

Profit

99000.0

103049.4

Exit Price

101902.6

Entry Price

106000.0

The ongoing clash between President Donald Trump and tech magnate Elon Musk is now entering sensitive territory, with various key sectors already showing signs of strain.

According to several recent reports, Trump has launched a public and aggressive offensive aimed at Musk, declaring his intention to terminate all federal contracts and subsidies currently granted to Musk’s companies.

This escalation follows sharp criticism from Musk regarding Trump’s latest tax-and-spending proposal, which he described as a “disgusting abomination.” Trump responded with characteristic bluntness on Truth Social, stating: “The easiest way to save billions of dollars is to end all government contracts and subsidies for Elon.”

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Uber—the leading platform for ride-hailing services—appears to be exploring the integration of stablecoins into its payment ecosystem. This potential shift aims to streamline and modernize payment processes within the company’s global operations.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi revealed that the company is currently assessing the feasibility of incorporating stablecoins as a tool to enhance international payment efficiency. Although still under consideration, this move could mark a significant step toward broader blockchain adoption among major tech firms.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Tech conference in San Francisco, as reported by Cryptopolitan, Khosrowshahi emphasized the tangible benefits of using stablecoins—particularly their ability to significantly reduce costs and speed up cross-border transactions. He noted that such digital assets can facilitate near-instant payments with transaction fees up to 80% lower than those of traditional financial systems.

Uber’s interest in stablecoins stems from its need to operate across a diverse range of currencies and banking frameworks. Leveraging stablecoins could simplify payments to drivers, suppliers, and partners in regions with volatile financial systems or expensive remittance channels.

Meanwhile, Japanese firm Metaplanet has once again demonstrated its conviction in Bitcoin, adding more of the digital asset to its corporate treasury. The Tokyo-based company announced on Monday that it had acquired an additional 1,088 BTC, investing approximately ¥16.885 billion JPY (roughly $117.5 million USD).

According to Metaplanet’s disclosure, the purchase was made at an average price of around $108,051 per bitcoin—underscoring the company’s long-term commitment to holding BTC as part of its financial strategy. Bullish Momentum Could Emerge From Local Lows_1

Bullish Momentum Could Emerge From Local Lows_1

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD has retreated sharply amid a broader market sell-off, reaching as low as the 100,500 mark. This level coincides with a previous wick low observed on May 12, a level from which the price rebounded strongly at that time. If the price manages to find support and stage a firm rejection at this level again, we could see a renewed wave of buying interest initiating from these local lows.

Adding to this possibility, the RSI has dipped into oversold territory, reaching 28—the lowest level recorded in recent sessions. This reading suggests that selling pressure may be waning and that bulls could begin to build positions around this area in anticipation of a rebound.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages currently stand at 106,966 and 104,188, respectively. This gives BTC/USD room to recover toward those levels, which could serve as medium-term targets. Additionally, a potential retest of the descending trendline near 106,000 remains a plausible scenario if bullish momentum builds.

However, if price action breaks decisively below the recent local low, the bearish trend could extend further, with the next significant support level situated around 98,000—posing downside risk if buyers fail to defend the current zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 101900

Target price: 106000

Stop loss: 99000

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD traded around $3,355.94/ounce, down 0.49% from the previous session as the weakening USD showed signs of a slight recovery and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of easing after a phone call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi Jinping...

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3356.00

Entry Price

3340.00

3380.00

4189.70 -8.21 -0.20%

160.0

Pips

Profit

3340.00

3339.99

Exit Price

3356.00

Entry Price

3380.00

Macro Overview

Recent weak US economic data, with the ADP report for May reporting just 37,000 new jobs, well below the forecast of 110,000, supported gold prices on June 4 as the dollar weakened by 0.5%. However, on June 5, when the US and China agreed to continue trade talks, gold reversed and fell nearly 1% as risk sentiment returned, reducing demand for haven assets. However, the long-term trend still shows central banks continuing to accumulate gold, with a forecast of 1,000 tonnes of purchases by 2025, reflecting safe-haven demand amid a wave of diversification away from the dollar. Geopolitical tensions and easy monetary policies from major central banks remain fundamental support for gold, although short-term momentum is under pressure as the dollar recovers slightly

Market psychology

Market sentiment for gold is currently fluctuating between expectations of cooling inflation and monetary policy easing, while US economic data remains "stuck" with no clear trend.. The “Fear Greed” index in the precious metals market remained neutral – leaning towards “fear” as gold prices failed to hold above $3,400, reflecting that investors are still waiting for this week’s US employment data to determine the next trend direction. The latest CFTC data shows that hedge funds are reducing their long positions in gold, implying that institutional traders are reducing risks at the current price range and waiting for a clear signal from the Fed as well as the trade situation.

Technical analysis

XAU/USD plunges around 3.356 as USD strengthens and trade tensions ease_1

On the M15 chart, XAU/USD is trading around $3,355.94, below the Bollinger Bands MA20 (20,0,2) estimated at around $3,378, indicating increasing technical selling pressure.. The upper and lower Bollinger Bands are around $3,403 and $3,339 respectively, with the price touching the lower border, suggesting a possible further test of the $3,339 support. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator (9,26,52) on M15 shows the price below the Kumo cloud, with the Tenkan-sen line (9) crossing below the Kijun-sen (26) around $3,380, sending a clear short-term sell signal.. The Kumo cloud ahead is sloping down, creating a resistance zone at $3,400–$3,410, making it difficult for gold to break out without a strong bounce from the macro side. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) on M15 is in the neutral zone, with %K around 45 and %D around 50, not yet in the oversold zone, indicating that the decline may continue before a technical recovery appears. RSI (14) M15 fluctuates around 50, reflecting that buying and selling forces are balanced, but the downward pressure is slightly higher as the price has not been able to hold above $3,370. Trading volume in the Asian session is lower than average, indicating that money flows are waiting for clear macro signals before increasing selling positions.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 3.356 USD

Take Profit: 3.340 USD

Stop Loss: 3.380 USD

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

USD/JPY traded around 143.65 as the yen received support from news that the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy while the dollar was under pressure from weak US jobs data...

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

143.650

Entry Price

142.500

144.200

155.863 -0.055 -0.04%

55.0

Pips

Loss

142.500

144.200

Exit Price

143.650

Entry Price

144.200

Macro Overview

The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its June meeting and said it would only consider raising interest rates when the domestic economy and inflation were strong enough, given that core inflation had yet to reach 2% sustainably. The BoJ also said it would continue to scale back bond purchases as planned, but did not change its overall easing policy, keeping real interest rates in Japan low and limiting further depreciation pressure on the JPY. Meanwhile, in the United States, the ADP report for May 2025 recorded only 37,000 new jobs, much lower than the forecast of 110,000, making the Fed tend to maintain a "wait and see" stance and postpone raising interest rates in the coming months. The recent stream of less positive US economic data also includes declines in the ISM services index and manufacturing PMI, reducing demand for holding USD compared to currencies like JPY which are considered safe havens..

Market psychology

Sentiment on USD/JPY is shifting to a more “risk-off” stance as hedge funds’ net long JPY position increased to 164,000 contracts, down from 167,300 contracts last week, suggesting speculators are waiting for more macro signals before resuming USD longs.

The Asia-Pacific currency group’s “Fear Greed” index has remained around neutral – slightly tilted toward “fear,” indicating indecision for USD/JPY as both sides are weighed down by weak economic data and an uncertain policy outlook. In addition, institutional capital is still moving away from overbought USD positions as the greenback is pressured by expectations of a Fed rate hike delay, while the JPY is slightly supported by its “safe haven” role and the BoJ’s indirect intervention through monetary easing. Data from FXStreet also shows that USD/JPY is under pressure as global risk sentiment temporarily cools.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Weakens Around 143.65 as BoJ Maintains Dovish Stance and USD Pressured by US Economic Data_1

On the M15 chart, USD/JPY is currently trading around 143.65, just below the estimated MA20 of the Bollinger Bands (20, 0, 2) at 143.85, with the upper and lower bands around 145.00 and 142.50 respectively. The price breaking below the MA20 suggests that technical selling pressure is increasing in the short term. The M15 Tenkan-sen (9) at 143.90 has crossed below the M15 Kijun-sen (26) around 144.10, sending out a clear short-term sell signal.. The Kumo M15 currently has two Senkou Span A and B lines at 144.30 and 144.50 respectively, acting as a resistance zone of 144.30–144.50, making it difficult for the price to break out without a significant breakout. The Stochastic (5, 3, 3) M15 indicator is remaining below 50, approaching the oversold zone (below 20), signaling that selling pressure still has room to continue pushing the price down to the support zone around 142.50. At the same time, the RSI (14) M15 fluctuates around 45, not yet in the oversold zone (below 30) but is showing a slight downward trend, implying that the short-term downtrend is still being consolidated.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 143,65

Take Profit: 142,50

Stop Loss: 144,20

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTC/USD is trading around $102,380 according to M15 data from TradingView <br>tradingview.com <br>. This price level reflects a corrective trend after Bitcoin hit the $100,000–$101,000 support zone in the previous session and shows that technical buying is increasing at an attractive price zone...

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

102504.9

Entry Price

103400.0

101500.0

91015.1 +1053.1 +1.17%

895.1

Pips

Profit

101500.0

103410.3

Exit Price

102504.9

Entry Price

103400.0

Macro Overview

On the macro front, Bitcoin is benefiting from the Fed’s easing cyclical trend as the benchmark US interest rate remains at 5.25% with no signs of further increases in the coming months. The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 remains at 0.78, indicating that the “risk-on” trend in the stock market tends to push Bitcoin higher when stocks are positive. In addition, geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East have eased compared to last month, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, thereby attracting more capital inflows to Bitcoin as a “digital haven”. However, macro risks remain as the US Federal Reserve will release CPI data for May later in the week, which could impact the USD and indirectly affect BTC/USD.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment towards Bitcoin is reflected by the Fear Greed Index at 62/100, indicating that the market is leaning towards a “greed” state but not yet overheated, and there is still caution as the price has not surpassed the resistance level of $105,000. On-chain data from Glassnode recorded that the volume of Bitcoin withdrawals from major exchanges continues to remain high, showing that long-term holders are confident and are not in a hurry to take profits, contributing to strengthening the short-term price increase momentum. On the other hand, the Open Interest index in the futures market is still maintained around 8-9 thousand contracts, showing that institutional capital has not been completely withdrawn and still expects a medium-term price increase. The 24-hour trading volume on Binance was approximately $42.14 billion, down slightly by 3.08% compared to the previous day, reflecting that liquidity is at an average level and there has been no breakthrough fluctuations.

Technical analysis

Is BTC/USD on the verge of a short-term recovery?_1

Currently, BTC/USD is trading around $102,380, above the Bollinger Bands MA20 (20,0,2) estimated at $102,200, while the Bollinger Bands upper band is near $105,200 and the lower band is around $100,000. The price breaking above the MA20 shows that technical buying is dominating the short term. The Tenkan-sen (9) and Kijun-sen (26) lines of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo are intersecting around $102,100–$102,150, giving a slight buy signal. The Kumo cloud ahead is still acting as support around $101,500–$101,800, suggesting that this area will be a strong point for the price to test if there is a correction. The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) on M15 is rising from the oversold zone (below 20) and is currently at 45, implying that there is still room for buying power to push the price towards $105,000. At the same time, the RSI (14) on M15 is around 52, indicating that the price has not entered the overbought zone (above 70), continuing to open up opportunities for price increases.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 102.500 USD

Take Profit: 103.400 USD

Stop Loss: 101.500 USD

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The euro edged up only slightly after Lagarde stressed that the easing cycle could pause after eight straight cuts, while the CAD did not strengthen significantly as the BoC said it would cut interest rates if the Canadian economy weakens under pressure from import tariffs...

SELL EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.56200

Entry Price

1.55800

1.56600

1.61142 -0.00096 -0.06%

40.0

Pips

Profit

1.55800

1.55797

Exit Price

1.56200

Entry Price

1.56600

Macro Overview

The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2% on June 5, but signaled a possible pause in its easing cycle as eurozone inflation fell to 1.9%, close to its 2% target. Christine Lagarde stressed that given current inflation levels and the economic outlook, the ECB is “well placed” to pause and cut only once more by the end of the year if needed. PMI figures on June 4 showed Germany’s services PMI fell to 49.8, dragging the region’s composite index down to 50.2, its lowest since February 2025, suggesting slowing economic growth in the region.

In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) on June 4, 2025 kept its base interest rate at 2.75% and made it clear that it would cut it if the economy weakened significantly due to uncertainty over US trade policy.. The BoC cited the US President's imposition of 50% steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada as the biggest "risk driver" for the Canadian economy. Canada's first-quarter GDP growth of just 2.2% in 2025, largely due to lower public spending and stable energy prices, shows the pressure to keep inflation steady around 3.1% and force the central bank to not raise interest rates again.

Against this backdrop, the monetary policy divergence between the ECB pausing easing and the BoC maintaining interest rates, coupled with less positive eurozone and Canadian data, has kept EUR/CAD in a short-term sideways trend, lacking a strong enough push to break out of the 1.558–1.568 channel..

Market psychology

EUR/CAD market sentiment on 06/06/2025 shows cautious state: hedge funds reduce long EUR/CAD positions after ECB signals end of easing game and BoC warns of trade risks. The “Fear Greed” index of European currencies remains neutral, indicating investors are reluctant to open large positions until more data on Eurozone inflation and Canadian employment figures are available. In addition, institutional money did not suddenly turn to CAD despite the BoC holding interest rates, due to tariff concerns and the unclear economic outlook of Canada.

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD corrects slightly around 1.562 as ECB pauses easing cycle and BoC warns of trade risks_1

Currently, EUR/CAD is trading around 1.5620, just below the MA20 (middle Bollinger Band) at 1.5632, with the upper Bollinger Band (20,0,2) around 1.5680 and the lower band around 1.5580. The price's failure to break above the MA20 and a slight decline suggests that sellers are still in control in the short term.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator (9,26,52) on M15 shows that the price is below the Kumo cloud, the Tenkan-sen line (9) at 1.5630 has crossed below the Kijun-sen (26) at 1.5645, generating a short-term sell signal. The front Kumo cloud is sloping down, with Senkou Span A at 1.5635 and Senkou Span B around 1.5660, creating a resistance zone of 1.5635–1.5660.

The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) indicator on the M15 chart is currently around 35, with %K trending down, not yet in the oversold zone (below 20), showing that selling pressure still has room to test the support at 1.5580. RSI M15 is estimated at around 42, below 50, confirming that the short-term downtrend is still dominant.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 1,5620

Take Profit: 1,5580

Stop Loss: 1,5660

EUR/CAD could fall to 1.5580 in the short term if it stays below MA20 and Tenkan-sen, and if the price breaks the support at 1.5580, it could continue to fall to 1.5530. Conversely, if the price bounces and closes above 1.5635 (with increased volume), the SELL strategy is no longer reasonable and a stop loss should be placed at 1.5660, waiting for a technical pullback to 1.5680 before assessing the new trend.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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