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【「Elected=Inaugurated?」, the difference in probability on Polymarket between Trump being elected and being inaugurated is 1%】 November 5th, the probability of "2024 Presidential Election Winner" on the Polymarket platform has increased to 61.2% for Trump's victory, while Harris's chance of winning the election has decreased to 38.9% (due to rounding the total may appear as 99.9% or 100.1%), Trump is now leading Harris by over 22.3 percentage points.It is worth noting that the prediction market rules for "2024 Presidential Election Winner" are: "When AP, Fox, and NBC all declare the election for the same candidate, this prediction market will be settled. If this event does not occur, the market will remain open and settle based on the presidential inauguration ceremony on January 20th of next year."Furthermore, there is also a "Who Will Be President?" prediction market on the Polymarket platform, with a trading volume of up to $3.12 million, settled based on the presidential inauguration ceremony on January 20th of next year, where Trump's chances of winning are at 60.2% (1% lower than the election prediction market), Harris at 37.4%, and a 2.8% probability for "Other."
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