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Riskier asset classes have often performed well ahead of US CPI reports recently. For AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 SPI futures, such an environment should be advantageous for near-term gains.
Oil prices stabilised yesterday and Brent managed to settle 1.1% higher on the day. This is despite a bearish tone coming from APPEC (Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference) Week in Singapore, which kicked off yesterday. Demand concerns are the main focus, particularly when it comes to China. Most are also looking at a well-supplied market in the months ahead.
A bearish outlook leaves OPEC+ with two options. They can continue to try manage supply in order to support prices. However, in doing so, they will be giving market share away to non-OPEC+ producers. The other option is to open the taps in an attempt to push out other producers. Obviously the group would have to be willing to accept much lower prices with this option. While we believe OPEC will follow the former option, there is a risk, particularly if they are having little success in supporting the market, that they decide to pursue the other option at some point through 2025.
Offering some further support to the market is Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico, which is set to be upgraded to a hurricane when it reaches the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. The storm has led some operators to shut platforms. Chevron, Exxon and Shell have already evacuated workers from some platforms. The storm also puts US Gulf Coast refinery operations at risk once it makes landfall.
There is a fair amount on the calendar for today. Firstly, there will likely be further noise coming from APPEC in Singapore. China also releases its first batch of trade data for August, which will offer some more insight into how Chinese oil demand is performing. Crude imports over the first seven months of the year were down 2.4% YoY. OPEC will release its latest monthly oil market report. Last month the group revised its 2024 demand growth estimate down by 130k b/d to 2.11m b/d, while there was also a marginal revision lower in 2025 demand. However, OPEC’s demand numbers are still extremely bullish relative to other estimates and do not align with price action. We could see the group make further downward revisions to their demand estimates today. Finally, the EIA (US Energy Information Administation) will also release its Short Term Energy Outlook today, which will include its latest outlook on the global market and US crude oil production forecasts.
Iron ore prices sank below $90/t for the first time since 2022 yesterday as China gloom continues to deepen. Iron ore is one of the worst-performing commodities so far this year, with prices now down about 33% year-to-date. We believe price risks are increasingly skewed to the downside for the industrial metal as the outlook in China, the biggest buyer, continues to deteriorate. Iron ore port holdings in China continue to rise, now back above 150 million tonnes and standing at their highest ever for the time of year, a sign of abundant seaborne supplies.
Steel inventories at major Chinese steel mills fell to 14.5mt - the lowest level since January - in late August. This was down 11.6% compared to mid-August, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Steel inventories are 1.2% lower than in the same period last year. Crude steel production at major mills fell by 5.4% from mid-August to 1.89mt/d (the lowest in eight months) in late August, as more domestic steel mills scaled back operations at their blast furnaces in response to heavy losses.
Rep. Lee Gang-ill of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea released data from the Financial Supervisory Service, revealing that 65,887 people in their 20s were registered as credit delinquents with the Korea Credit Information Services (KCIS) as of July.
This represents an increase of 25.3 percent in the number of credit delinquents among people in their 20s compared 2021.
Considering that the total number of credit delinquents increased by around 8 percent from 548,730 to 592,567 during the same period, the increase among those in their 20s is even more pronounced.
A credit delinquent is registered with the KCIS when their overdue period exceeds a specified timeframe — three months past the loan's maturity or six months past the due date. These individuals face various financial disadvantages, including the suspension of their credit cards, restrictions on taking out loans, and a drop in their credit ratings.
A notable characteristic of youth debt is the large number of borrowers struggling to repay loans that are under 10 million won ($7,400).
As of July, 73,379 people in their 20s were registered with credit bureaus for short-term delinquencies, excluding credit card payment issues. Among them, 64,624, or 88.1 percent, owed less than 10 million won. This indicates that nearly nine out of ten loan delinquents in their 20s have relatively small amounts of debt.
Rep. Lee noted, that given that the delinquent amounts are relatively small, a significant number of young people seem to be struggling with living expenses or housing costs. He raised concerns that the younger generation is facing economic hardships from high interest rates and inflation, along with difficulties in securing stable jobs due to the economic slowdown.
According to government data, the number of employed individuals aged 15 to 29 has been decreasing annually since November 2022.
In July, the number of young people who were neither employed nor seeking employment reached 443,000.
“Amid the economic slowdown, the reduction in new jobs for people in their 20s has resulted in small loan delinquencies, highlighting the financial difficulties young people face,” Lee said.
“Addressing youth delinquency through financial solutions like debt restructuring alone seems to be insufficient. Comprehensive youth policies, including job creation and broader social policies, must be implemented at the macro level.”
Sales of Malaysia’s wholesale and retail trade rose 6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM149 billion in July 2024, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said that retail trade grew 6.4% to record RM63.5 billion sales for the month.
“Wholesale trade also went up 5.5% to record RM66.6 billion, followed by motor vehicles with an increase of 12.2% to RM19.0 billion,” he said in a statement on Monday.
On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, wholesale and retail trade rebounded 2.1% after dipping 1.3% in June, bolstered by motor vehicle sales which increased 11.6%.
The department said the retail trade sub-sector’s y-o-y growth was led by retail sales in non-specialised stores, which grew 7.7% to RM24.4 billion, while the wholesale trade sub-sector’s y-o-y growth was supported by wholesale of machinery, equipment and supplies, which rose 10.2% to RM5.4 billion.
Meanwhile, the 12.2% y-o-y growth for the motor vehicles sub-sector was driven by the sales of motor vehicles, which recorded a double-digit growth of 14.0%, it said.
For the index of retail sale over the internet, the department said the index grew 5.7% y-o-y in July 2024, compared to 4.8% y-o-y in June 2024. For the seasonally adjusted value, the index inched up 1.5% against the previous month.
In terms of the volume index, DOSM said wholesale and retail trade for July 2024 registered a y-o-y growth of 5.5%, contributed by all sub-sectors, namely motor vehicles (10.8%), wholesale trade (5.2%) and retail trade (4.6%).
“For the seasonally adjusted volume index, it went up 2.1% m-o-m (month-on-month),” it said.
The department noted that the government has declared Oct 20 of each year as the National Statistics Day (MyStats Day), and that this year’s theme is “Statistics is the Essence of Life”.
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