Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Source: Barchart 

China’s declining US market share

Sectors in which the Chinese market share in the US has shifted the most between 2017 and 2023

Despite tariffs, China remains a key import source for the US

US imports from selected Asian countries ($bn)

When two people quarrel, the third benefits

Share in total US imports (%)

Market share changes of US imports for Section 301 Products (Lists 1-4A)

How tariff policies could Impact Vietnam, Mexico, and many more

Source: ING

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges above $31.50 at the start of the week. The white metal strengthens as financial market participants become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on December 18.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% on December 18 has increased to 87% from 62% a week ago. A scenario that historically weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields but is favorable for non-yielding assets, such as Silver, given that lower yields result in lower opportunity cost for holding an investment in them.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreats after failing to sustain above the key figure of 106.00. 10-year US Treasury yields tick higher to near 4.16%.

Meanwhile, fresh attempts at a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by US President-elect Donald Trump could weigh on the safe-haven demand for Silver. “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness,” Trump wrote on a social media platform. The safe-haven demand for precious metals increases in a heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

This week, investors will focus on the closed-door annual central economic work conference to be held on Dec 11-12, according to Bloomberg. The committee is expected to set priorities for the following year along with scrutinizing current economic performance. The outcome will influence the Silver price, given the application of Silver as a metal in diversified industries.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price rallies to near $31.60 after breaking above the three-day resistance of $31.30. The asset climbs above the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $31.10 and $31.20, respectively, suggesting a strong uptrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger a decisive break above the same.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe, would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 would be the barrier.

Source: FXSTREET

Source: Euronews

Gold price (XAU/USD) nudges higher on Monday’s early European session, favoured by its safe-aven status amid the increasing uncertainty in the Middle East after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.

Beyond that, The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced over the weekend that it resumed Gold purchases in November after a six-month pause, which is giving an additional boost to the precious metal.

Data from the US released on Friday revealed that the country’s labour market remains solid, but the increasing unemployment rate confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates by 25 bps next week. This, and a mild risk appetite, are keeping US Dollar upside attempts limited.

Daily digest market movers: Fed easing, geopolitical concerns and China boost Gold

China’s Gold reserves increased by 160,000 ounces to 72.96 million ounces in November from 72.80 million ounces in November. This has boosted expectations of further Gold appreciation and is likely to underpin demand for the precious metal. 

On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed that the US economy added 227,000 new jobs in November, beating expectations of a 200,000 increase. 

The Unemployment rate, however, ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the previous month, which kept hopes of a Fed rate cut in December intact. 

The CME Group’s Fed Watch shows an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed next week, up from less than 70% last week. 

The Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are ticking up on Monday after losing about 20 basis points in the last two weeks. This has offset the positive impact of the Trump trade and is adding pressure on the US Dollar.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD is approaching the channel top at $2,665

Gold is showing an increasing bullish momentum on Monday as the positive trend from last week's lows gathers steam. With fundamentals in its favour, the pair seems likely to retest the top of the last two weeks’ channel at $2,665.

Above here, the next target would be the $2,690 intra-day level, and the November 24 high, at $2,720. On the downside, the bottom of the mentioned channel is at $2,620. Below here, the next support is the November 25 low, at $2,605.

Source: FXSTREET

(Dec 9): Key allies of Emmanuel Macron are heaping pressure on the French president to name a new prime minister quickly, with time running short to pass a stopgap spending bill before the end of the year.

Francois Bayrou, a veteran centrist politician who’s been cited as a possible premier, warned over the weekend that “we can’t continue like this.” Yael Braun-Pivet, the head of the National Assembly and a member of Macron’s party, called on the president during a Sunday radio show to name a new prime minister “in the next few hours.”

The sense of urgency comes days after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally joined a left-wing coalition to topple the government, leaving France’s political system in disarray. Macron said he would name a new premier in the “coming days” who would then pass an extraordinary spending bill before mid-December to keep the country running.

The president met with key political chiefs Friday to begin the process of landing on a prime minister who could last longer than the outgoing premier, Michel Barnier. Macron held discussions with leaders from his own party as well as with center-right politicians and Socialist lawmakers.

On Monday, Macron will meet Communist and Green lawmakers. He hasn’t indicated if he’ll consult with the anti-migration National Rally, which is the largest single party in the lower house of parliament and played a key role in bringing down Barnier’s government.

National Rally President Jordan Bardella urged Macron to meet with his party to chart a way forward.

“I ask to be received with Marine Le Pen so that we can present our red lines,” Bardella told France 3 TV on Sunday. “You can’t pretend we’re not here.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Le Pen said a new budget could be passed “in a matter of weeks” if the government fell. She said the next prime minister would have to narrow the budget deficit more slowly.

In an address to the French people on Thursday, Macron signaled an aggressive approach to the far-right and left forces that brought down the government, saying that they “voted for disorder” and that “they voted not to create but to break down.”

France is adrift at a critical moment with Donald Trump aiming to drive a resolution to the war in Ukraine, the European Union locking down new trading relationships with South America’s biggest economies and the bloc’s biggest companies struggling to compete with their US and Chinese rivals. Macron met with Trump on Saturday when the US president-elect was effectively the guest of honor at the reopening of Notre Dame cathedral.

The uncertainty in Paris over the future of Barnier’s government and its budget fueled investor concerns about the country’s already stretched public finances in recent weeks. Under selling pressure, the state’s borrowing costs compared to peers rose at one point to highs not seen since the euro zone’s debt crisis more than a decade ago.

However, markets calmed as opposition parties indicated willingness to be more cooperative after the collapse of Barnier’s government. French government bonds rallied for a fourth day on Dec. 6, driving down the 10-year yield over German equivalents.

Macron’s troubles began last June when he called a snap election ostensibly to shore up his support after a catastrophic Europe-wide vote. The plan backfired, delivering a National Assembly split into three irreconcilable blocs: a strong left-wing coalition, a smaller center that backed Macron and an expanded nationalist group led by Le Pen.

The result of the June election made Le Pen the pivotal power broker in the lower house of parliament, giving her National Rally the ability to short circuit the government. Which is exactly what they did when it came time to pass the 2025 spending bill.

Barnier’s budget legislation included about €60 billion ($63.4 billion) of tax hikes and spending cuts to bring the deficit to 5% of economic output from 6.1%, closer in line with stricter European Union regulations. Even though Barnier made multiple concessions to Le Pen, she still toppled his administration.

Barnier became the shortest-serving prime minister since the French Republic was founded in 1958.

Whoever becomes the next prime minister of France will have to deal with the same parliamentary calculus as Barnier, and will likely face the same hurdles to passing a full budget for 2025.

While Bayrou’s name has been floated as a possible premier, it could also be someone from the outgoing cabinet, such as Sebastien Lecornu, in charge of defense, or Bruno Retailleau, interior minister. Bernard Cazeneuve, a former prime minister for Socialist President Francois Hollande, is also often cited.

“If I can help in any form to get out of this, I will do it,” Bayrou told reporters over the weekend.

Source: Theedgemarkets