Markets
News
Analysis
User
24/7
Economic Calendar
Education
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
A:--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
--
F: --
P: --
No matching data
Latest Views
Latest Views
Trending Topics
To quickly learn market dynamics and follow market focuses in 15 min.
In the world of mankind, there will not be a statement without any position, nor a remark without any purpose.
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
Top Columnists
Enjoy exciting activities, right here at FastBull.
The latest breaking news and the global financial events.
I have 5 years of experience in financial analysis, especially in aspects of macro developments and medium and long-term trend judgment. My focus is maily on the developments of the Middle East, emerging markets, coal, wheat and other agricultural products.
BeingTrader chief Trading Coach & Speaker, 8+ years of experience in the forex market trading mainly XAUUSD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Crude Oil. A confident trader and analyst who aims to explore various opportunities and guide investors in the market. As an analyst I am looking to enhance the trader’s experience by supporting them with sufficient data and signals.
Latest Update
Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
Hongkong, China
Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Dubai, UAE
Lagos, Nigeria
Cairo, Egypt
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Affiliate Program
View All
No data
Not Logged In
Log in to access more features
FastBull Membership
Not yet
Purchase
Log In
Sign Up
Hongkong, China
Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Dubai, UAE
Lagos, Nigeria
Cairo, Egypt
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Affiliate Program
At the recent Jackson Hole symposium, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey struck a more cautious note in his speech compared to the assertiveness of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Chair Powell was surprisingly blunt in his talk last week at Jackson Hole, announcing that "the time has come for policy to adjust." But he also said, "The timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." Nevertheless, the markets have responded with an almost unanimous expectation (99.5%) of a rate cut when the Fed meets again in September.
Powell was speaking to the vector of rate policy (i.e., decreasing rates), not the timing or the amount of the rate decreases, which he left open. We'll be seeing the latest inflation numbers on September 11, before the FOMC meets again September 17th-18th. That meeting will print with the Summary of Economic Projections, and we could well see some surprises in the Fed's estimates.
We're currently at 2.89%, headline inflation, YoY, as of August 14th. Core inflation is 3.2%. While the latest August numbers point to disinflation in many categories, most of the categories showing disinflation are periodic expenses that don't implicate the day-to-day living expenses of most Americans. Those that do, meantime, continue to escalate. Used cars and trucks, for example, are down 10.9%, but motor vehicle insurance is up a humongous 18.6%!!! There's a whole litany of expenses of daily living that continue well above "headline" inflation: Food away from home is up 4.1%; Shelter, 5.1%; electricity, 4.9%. Those are just the most egregious costs.
Meanwhile, a glimpse at the latest Beveridge Curve, which compares job openings to the unemployment rate, shows that the Fed may be overemphasizing the increasing unemployment rate at the wrong time, notwithstanding the Sahm Rule we discussed here. The unemployment rate for June, 4.1%, is offset by a job opening rate of 4.9%. We might well be at "full employment", as the differential is just 80 bps, roughly the same as it was (+/-20 bps) from July 2018 to December 2019). Indeed, the Beveridge Curve, right now, looks incredibly normal. All things considered, notwithstanding its long tail from the pandemic.
Indeed, there were fewer people unemployed per job opening (0.8 people per job) in June than in comparatively "boom" years, like 2017 (when we had 3%+ average quarterly GDP) when that average number was 1.13, as illustrated below.
I'm reiterating our earlier call to leave rates where they are and to increase QT another 5% to 10% to trim inflation by reducing the level of M2 in the economy. We're confident that will eventually, but most directly, restore the Fed overnight rate to r*, the neutral rate of interest.
Our biggest fear is that the Fed will concede to critics that believe its 2% target is too harsh and that it is an arbitrary rate. In fact, it is, but that is largely beside the point. A 2% rate of inflation provides a moderate rate of inflation while encouraging people to spend. But the critics have pointed out that getting over the "last mile" of a 2% rate of inflation will require higher unemployment, at least to the extent the Phillips Curve still holds true.
In our view, inflation is a dangerous, insidious, destructive, phenomenon that damages the long-term well-being of the economy. Keeping it at bay or raising the unemployment rate is an easy choice.
Containing inflation should be the Fed's primary objective, over low unemployment and especially over a "soft landing".
The 2025 general government deficit (ESA2010) should reach 5.5% of GDP compared to 5.7% of GDP according to the planned implementation for 2024 (and 5.1% of GDP originally). This means probably a revision of this year’s budget, but at the same time a higher deficit in the starting point for an EDP procedure.
The state budget deficit (on a cash basis) is to reach PLN289bn, but PLN63bn is spent on the rollover of maturing debt of development institutions (PFR fund and BGK bank), which was accumulated when they distributed public aid during the Covid-19 pandemic. To roll over these bonds, maturing in 2025, the Ministry of Finance will need to issue new, but cheaper Polish government bonds than bonds of the two entities. Adjusted for these items (because this is not adding to borrowing needs), the state budget deficit will amount to PLN226bn (5.7% of GDP) vs. the PLN184bn planned for 2024 – an increase of 23%, not nearly 60% as the unadjusted numbers would suggest.
In addition, PLN24.8bn should be subtracted from the state budget deficit to account for the reform of inter-governmental finances (previously, there was a larger deficit at the local government level, and now, the state budget is taking over this deficiency from local governments). Adjusted for both the PFR and BGK debt roll-over and the reform of inter-governmental relations, the state budget deficit (in comparable terms to 2024) would amount to PLN201bn (5.1% of GDP) vs. the PLN184bn planned for 2024 – an increase of just 9.2%, which is much lower the unadjusted figures presented by MinFin (60%).
The lower general government deficit, according to ESA2010 in accrual terms (5.5% of GDP) compared to the headline state budget deficit in cash terms (PLN289bn, 7.3% of GDP), is due to the fact that payments for redeeming BGK and PFR bonds is a cash expenditure of the state budget, while the ESA2010 methodology already accounted for public expenditures via PFR and BGK institutions during the pandemic. In 2025, it will be just a transfer within a broad public finance sector. The same applies for fiscal effects of inter-governmental relations. This is a transfer from the state to the local level within a broader public sector.
Net borrowing needs are projected at PLN367bn in 2025 vs. the PLN252bn projected for 2024, but adjusted for payments for PFR and BGK bonds redemptions (which does not add new borrowing needs), the 2025 net borrowing needs should reach PLN304bn. This compares to PLN252bn budgeted in 2024, an increase of 20.5% year-on-year (and 45.5% YoY without the correction for PFR and BGK bonds). This is a significant increase, but lower than presented by the Ministry of Finance.
We assume a moderately negative market reaction to these announcements. We have known for a long time that Poland would have high borrowing needs in the coming years, and foreign investors have refrained from a large presence on the Polish market. The Ministry of Finance also has several options for financing the high borrowing needs. It still maintains a high liquidity buffer of PLN141bn in July – if it halves this buffer net needs may not change compared to 2024. In addition, the Ministry of Finance can issue foreign debt (the starting position is low, i.e. its share today is about 25% vs. over 30% a few years ago). Finally, it can still count on domestic financing due to the large inflow of savings into the banking sector.
Nonetheless, this is a budget draft of difficult policy choices, as the government has to fulfil strategic national defence needs, and meet election promises (which have been trimmed), as 2025 is a presidential election year. At the same time, it needs to comply with the European Commission recommendation, which may require some fiscal consolidation. The starting point is 5.7% of GDP fiscal gap in 2024, which offers space to deliver these fronts in a satisfactory manner.
September is often seen as a cautious or “risk-off” month for traders, influenced by factors like economic uncertainty, updates from China, and concerns about the rate cuts in the US. This generally means that traders might prefer safer investments, although this can vary depending on the asset. Here are two of my favorite trade ideas for the month of September.
The weekly timeframe on AUDNZD has recently bounced off a critical area of support, leaving behind a considerably long wick near the 200-period moving average. The 76% Fibonacci retracement level also contributed to the bullish momentum. In line with this, I expect the lower timeframes to provide a proper entry confirmation over the first few days in the month of September.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 1.11055
Invalidation: 1.06969
The weekly timeframe of GBPNZD broke above the previous high, and afterwards slipped downwards for a retest of the demand zone that originated the move. Notably, the demand zone overlays the 76% of the Fibonacci retracement, and aligns perfectly with the trendline support. The general outlook here is for a bullish outcome, since the 50-period moving average accents completely to this, lower timeframe confirmation for entries would be crucial nonetheless.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 2.19259
Invalidation: 2.05199
Libya’s crude oil production slumped by 700,000 barrels daily as of Thursday as the eastern government of the country began to shut down oil fields in an escalation of the internal political fighting that Libya has been locked in since 2011.
The current production rate in the country is below 600,000 bpd at the moment, Reuters reported, citing Libya’s National Oil Corporation. Last month’s daily average stood at 1.18 million barrels daily, the report noted.
Per information from petroleum engineers working in Libya’s oil patch, fields including Sharara and El Feel have been shut down and the production rate of Waha Oil Company, a NOC subsidiary, has declined to 150,000 bpd from 280,000 bpd. Exports from all of Libya’s oil ports have been suspended as well. The last loadings, on Thursday, totaled 600,000 barrels, Reuters also said.
Libya was plunged into a deeper political crisis earlier this month over a row about the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the only internationally recognized depository of Libya’s oil revenues.
The Benghazi-based government in eastern Libya, which is a rival to the Tripoli-based government in the politically divided North African OPEC producer, said on Monday it would shut down all crude oil output and exports.
The east-based government backed by military leader Khalifa Haftar is not internationally recognized, but Haftar and his people control most of the country’s oilfields.
Over the past weeks, the situation in Libya has deteriorated with the east-west rivalry flaring up again and centered on the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya—the guardian of Libya’s wealth and income from oil exports. The Tripoli government wants to appoint a new governor while the Benghazi government wants the incumbent to remain in office.
Oil prices ticked higher earlier this week thanks to the supply disruption in Libya and it may yet contribute to a weekly gain.
WASHINGTON (Aug 30): Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes dropped to a record low in July as higher prices and borrowing costs drove potential buyers from the market.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 5.5% last month to 70.2, the lowest reading since the series started in 2001. Pending home sales fell in all four regions last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would rise 0.4%.
Pending home sales plummeted 8.5% on a year-on-year basis in July.
"The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist.
Sales activity is likely to remain subdued. A Conference Board survey on Tuesday showed the share of consumers planning to buy a house over the next six months in August was the smallest since early 2013.
House prices remain elevated, though the pace of increases has slowed. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on Tuesday that house prices rose 5.1% on a year-on-year basis in June, the smallest rise in nearly a year, after advancing 5.9% in May.
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Poster Maker
Affiliate Program
The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.
Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.