FX Daily: Tentative Tariff Optimism Keeps Dollar under Pressure

Forex

Summary:

Markets have continued to unwind USD longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see growing pressure on CAD and MXN, which are facing the most tangible tariff threat at the moment. Today, expect more of the same from ECB speakers in Davos.

USD: Corporate tax discussion in focus

Trump’s day two in office was dominated by the threat to reshape tax systems for multinational companies. As part of a memorandum originally published on Monday, the president is tasking the US Treasury with investigating discriminatory taxes on US citizens or corporations. Along with the floated possibility of withdrawing from the OECD agreement on a minimum corporate tax, the US is considering double taxation on some foreign individuals and companies established in the US. It is admittedly hard to draw conclusions on how tangible this threat is, or the implications for US and foreign corporations for now. It is likely another layer of uncertainty to which markets are getting accustomed.

On the hot tariff topic, the focus has remained on Canada and Mexico after Monday’s threat to impose 25% tariffs. After another round of dollar weakness in yesterday’s US session, CAD and MXN are now trading around 1% stronger compared to Friday. We read that as a signal that markets are still reluctant to price in the full extent of the tariff impact, and perhaps still hanging on to hopes that tariffs will be delayed further on the back of some cooperation on migration. For now, Canada has pledged to retaliate but outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has equally stressed that avoiding tariffs is the priority. Downside risks for both CAD and MXN remain elevated.

Today’s US calendar only includes the Leading Index and MBA mortgage applications, which in the week ending 10 January (published last week) jumped 33%, the highest since March 2020. We’ll see whether markets have the will take 10-year Treasury yields back to 4.50%, which can add to the dollar’s soft momentum. Our rates team remains bearish on UST beyond the very near term, and that fits our view that the dollar can withstand temporary positioning squeezes.

EUR: 1.050 would be stretch

For a second day in a row, EUR/USD got support from a dollar decline but fell short of the 1.0440 mark. There still seems to be some resistance to take the pair back to the 1.0450-1.050 mark, which would close the gap with its short-term fair value, that we currently estimate at 1.0580. In fact, 1.050 would mark a shift to essentially pricing out most of the Trump tariff risk on the eurozone. That is probably premature.

On domestic eurozone news, a number of European Central Bank members are speaking in Davos, including President Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy, Klaas Knot and Olli Rehn. Yesterday, Bundesbank governor Joachim Nagel confirmed the ECB should cut rates by 25bp next week and reiterated the widely shared view that more cuts can follow. He is generally considered among the most hawkish Governing Council members, and that was another signal there is no resistance left to the dovish front.

We expect today’s comments to follow the same line and markets to consolidate their expectations for four rate cuts by the ECB this year.

NZD: Inflation data paves the way for half-point cut

New Zealand released fourth quarter inflation figures overnight. Headline CPI was flat at 2.2% versus expectations for 2.1%, while the closely monitored non-tradable index slowed slightly faster than expected from 4.9% to 4.5%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2021 and 0.2% below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's November projections.

This set of figures paves the way for a 50bp RBNZ cut at the 19 February meeting, which markets are now fully pricing in. We expect that 50bp move to be followed by at least two more 25bp cuts to take rates to 3.25%, as the RBNZ is following the widespread shift in central banks to growth concerns and should be keen to frontload some easing.

In the short term, NZD/USD can find some support beyond the 0.570 mark as markets see the risks of US tariffs on China as tentatively lower. NZD was the biggest short in G10 according to latest CFTC positioning data, so the technical picture is supportive despite the recent rebound. Ultimately, Trump’s trade agenda will determine how far NZD/USD can recover. From a domestic perspective, the RBNZ should give little support to its currency.

CEE: Risk-on mood supports regional currencies

Today we will see the first data in the CEE region this week. In Poland, labour market and industrial production data for December will be published, and tomorrow we will see retail sales. December's set of real economy data should point to a continued, albeit gradual, recovery in the Polish economy. The year-on-year change in industrial production and retail sales is expected to be slightly stronger than in November amid a more favourable calendar (number of working days).

The EM market continues to rally after tariff headlines and switch to risk-on mode. CEE in particular had another good day yesterday, with the CZK outperforming its peers this time. EUR/CZK erased most of the gains after surprisingly low inflation last week and closed below 25.150, well below the Czech National Bank's forecast. We could hear from central bankers later this week ahead of the start of the blackout period on Thursday next week. We expect a dovish tone due to lower inflation, which should again push EUR/CZK higher. The current low levels could be attractive to the market ahead of the CNB meeting in February, where we expect a rate cut. Still, valuations point to a higher EUR/CZK around 25.350-400. We therefore see the current move as noise from the global environment and remain negative on the CZK.

EUR/PLN successfully closed yesterday below the key 4.250 level. Contrary to the CNB story, National Bank of Poland hawkishness should keep PLN supported as we discussed here earlier. While we also still see some dispersion between rates and FX here, we see current levels more fair compared to EUR/CZK. On the other hand, for a bigger move further down we would likely need to see more hawkish repricing in the rates market. Meanwhile, the market has resisted outpricing more cuts after the NBP press conference last week.

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 0.9035-0.9030 area, or over a two-week low and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.9060 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the monthly low amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year. That said, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields acts as a tailwind for the buck, which, in turn, is seen lending support to the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel's ultra-dovish comments, opening doors for negative interest rates, might continue to weigh on the Swiss Franc. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone around the equity markets could undermine the safe-haven CHF and further contribute to limiting any meaningful downside for the USD/CHF pair.

Traders also seem reluctant and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of US President Donald Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum for more concrete announcements on tariffs. This, in turn, could infuse volatility in the global financial markets and influence the USD price dynamics, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CHF pair.

Traders on Thursday will further take cues from the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, due later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the 0.9200 mark, or the highest level since May 2024 touched earlier this month.

Source: FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Traders' Opinions

On January 22,ECBP resident Lagarde delivered her latest speech, with details as follows:

The European economy faces certain downside risks. While the ECB's policy adjustments aim to inject more vitality into the economy, current performance remains sluggish. However, gradual interest rate cuts are expected to provide a stable macroeconomic environment and bring more certainty to the market. Major challenges to European economic growth include energy price fluctuations, euro depreciation, and uncertainties in international trade. The potential threat of U.S. tariffs on European exports may further hinder export potential. Nevertheless, both the ECB and EU economic officials have stated they are prepared to address these external shocks and take measures to safeguard Europe’s economic interests.

Despite a slight uptick in inflation at the end of 2024, the ECB remains confident about achieving its 2% inflation target by 2025. Service sector inflation and wage growth remain key concerns, particularly the latter, which could trigger further price increases. However, the ECB is closely monitoring "lagging factors" such as services, energy, and wages to ensure price levels decline as expected. The ECB’s gradual rate-cutting strategy is also intended to address inflationary pressures while avoiding negative impacts on economic growth. In 2024, the ECB has implemented multiple rate cuts and plans to adjust the key rate closer to the neutral range in the future. This adjustment will provide more cushioning for the eurozone economy and reduce the risks of inflation fluctuations.

The low U.S. unemployment rate and near-full economic capacity are signs of an "overheated" economy, where protectionist trade policies could further push up costs and ultimately pass them on to consumers. In contrast, the European labor market remains relatively stable, though external shocks should not be underestimated. The healthy development of Europe's labor market is closely linked to timely policy adjustments. Currently, strong wage growth indicates high labor demand, supporting consumer spending and the overall economy. However, if this growth becomes uncontrolled, it may further exacerbate inflation. Thus, balancing job creation and wage growth control remains a key focus for the ECB.

Source：European Central Bank

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Cohen

Economic

India’s government is evaluating options ranging from a trade deal, cutting tariffs and importing more goods from the US if US President Donald Trump follows through with threatened trade action.

Officials in the Narendra Modi-led administration have sketched out various scenarios to counter any steps a new Trump administration may take to narrow India’s trade surplus with the US which was US$35.3 billion (RM156.6 billion) for the year ended March 31, people familiar with the matter said. The US was India’s largest trading partner for the period, data from India’s Commerce Ministry showed.

Among the options discussed, the government could buy more whiskey, steel and oil from the US, the people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. It could also reduce some import tariffs, with officials drawing up a list of likely products, such as bourbon whiskey and farm goods like pecan nuts, they said.

One of the proposals being considered is to reduce duties on good imported from US states that are politically important for the Republican party, one of the people said.

The plans under discussion are part of India’s larger strategy to avoid any confrontation with Trump, and also benefit from any potential US-China trade war, the people said. Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that New Delhi is set to take back at least 18,000 illegal Indian immigrants from the US to help placate the Trump administration.

An email seeking comments from the Trade Ministry spokesperson was not immediately answered. The plans have not been finalised and are still under discussions, the people said.

On his first day in office on Monday, Trump said he would slap a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada by Feb 1 while holding off on unveiling China-specific tariffs. He also threatened countries in the BRICS group of developing countries with increased tariffs.

Indian officials are also considering a limited trade deal with the US under one of its scenarios, people familiar with the matter said. New Delhi had tried unsuccessfully to implement this during the first Trump administration.

The plan under discussion would include reducing some “most-favoured nation” tariffs, which are imposed on countries with which India doesn’t have a bilateral trade deal.

Here are more details of the scenarios being discussed, according to people familiar with the matter:

India could consider buying more goods from the US in sectors including soybean, dairy, vehicles, medical instruments, and aircraft

Electronics, high-tech machinery, textiles, footwear and chemicals are among sectors to benefit if China is slapped with higher tariffs by the US and curbs on access to advanced technology

India expects the new Trump administration to pressure the country on issues including data regulations, intellectual property rules and e-commerce

Across the board tariffs of 10%-20% on all countries would help boost India’s exports of auto components and metals

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cohen

Commodity

The European natural gas market surged higher yesterday with TTF settling more than 4.5% higher on the day and above EUR50/MWh – the highest level since the first trading day of 2025, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Germany looks to subsidize the refill of gas storage

“The catalyst for the move appears to be an outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal in the US, which has been dealing with power issues which coincide with the freezing weather conditions the region is currently experiencing. Freeport, which has a capacity of a little more than 20bcm, said the plant will remain shut until power to the plant stabilizes.”

“Europe needs to pull in more LNG this winter with the loss of Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, along with also stronger demand. EU gas storage has now fallen to 59% and the region will need to try to make sure it stays above the European Commission’s target of 50% full by 1 February.”

“In addition, Germany is potentially looking at subsidizing the refill of gas storage ahead of the 2025/26 winter, a discussion we are likely to see more of across the EU with the TTF forward curve providing little incentive for players to store gas for the next winter with summer 2025 prices trading at a premium to 2025/26 winter prices.”

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Forex

Elsewhere, Dollar’s pull back this week have slowed, but it has yet to stage a convincing recovery. President Donald Trump’s ongoing rhetoric on tariffs continued to draw attention but had little immediate impact on markets. Trump reiterated yesterday his intention to impose a 10% tariff on China, accusing it of enabling fentanyl shipments through Canada and Mexico to the US. He also repeated his threat to target EU with tariffs, calling it the “only way” to achieve trade “fairness”. Markets, however, appeared unfazed, awaiting concrete actions to back Trump’s statements.

Key dates for tariff announcements include February 1, when decisions on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China are expected. For other countries, tariff measures may be delayed until federal trade reviews conclude on April 1. With no immediate actions, Trump’s remarks seem more rhetorical than actionable.

In terms of weekly performance so far, Dollar remains the weakest major currency, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc, reflecting a risk-on sentiment across US and European markets. Kiwi continues to lead gains despite today’s pullback, with Euro and Sterling following suit. Aussie and Loonie are mixed in middle positions.

Technically, a short term bottom is formed at 0.5540 in NZD/USD, just ahead of 0.5511 (2022 low). More consolidations would be seen with risk of stronger recovery. But as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.5751) holds, larger down trend is expected to resume through 0.5511/40 sooner rather than later. Nevertheless, strong break of 55 D EMA will bring further rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.6378 to 0.5540 at 0.5860, as the corrective pattern lengthens.

Kiwi Eases as NZ CPI Backs RBNZ 50bps Cut, Dollar Unmoved by Trump’s Continuous Tariff Talks_1

Kiwi Eases as NZ CPI Backs RBNZ 50bps Cut, Dollar Unmoved by Trump’s Continuous Tariff Talks_2

ECB’s Knot supports near-term rate cuts, not convinced of of stimulus mode

Dutch ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot expressed agreement with market expectations for rate cuts at the January and March meetings, saying he is “pretty comfortable” with them. However, he added it is “too early to comment” on further cuts beyond March.

“As long as the incoming data is in line with our projected return of inflation to target later this year then I think there is little obstacle to making another rate cut,” Knot said. “To change my mind for next week, it’s rather unlikely.”

Knot reiterated ECB’s trajectory toward a neutral policy stance. But he emphasized, “I’m not convinced yet that we need to go into stimulative mode as well.”

He expressed optimism that recent inflation data is “encouraging”. “It confirms the broad picture that we will return to target in the remainder of the year, and hopefully the economy will also finally recover a bit,” he added.

However, Knot flagged risks posed by US trade policies, describing punitive tariffs as a “clear downside risk on the horizon.”

New Zealand CPI unchanged at 2.2% yoy, non-tradeable pressures persist

New Zealand’s CPI rose 0.5% qoq in Q4 2024, in line with expectations, as tradeable inflation increased 0.3% qoq and non-tradeable inflation rose 0.7% qoq. Annually, CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy, slightly exceeding the anticipated 2.1% yoy. This marks the second consecutive quarter that inflation has stayed within RBNZ’s target range of 1% to 3%.

The data highlights diverging trends within inflation components. Non-tradeable inflation, which reflects domestic demand and supply conditions and excludes foreign competition, stood at 4.5% yoy, highlighting persistent internal price pressures. Tradeable inflation, influenced by global factors, recorded a -1.1% yoy decline.

Rent prices were the largest contributor to the annual CPI increase, rising 4.2% and accounting for nearly 20% of the overall 2.2% gain. Lower petrol prices, down -9.2% yoy, offset some of the upward momentum, with CPI excluding petrol increasing 2.7% yoy.

Australia’s Westpac Leading Index falls to 0.25%, signals gradual growth pickup

Westpac Leading Index for Australia dipped slightly in December, moving from 0.33% to 0.25%. Westpac noted that while the growth signal remains modest, it reflects a marked improvement from the consistently negative and below-trend readings observed over the past two years. This uptick hints at a gradual lift in economic momentum through the first half of 2025.

Westpac forecasts GDP growth to improve steadily over the course of 2025, projecting a year-end expansion of 2.2%—a notable recovery from the weak 0.8% growth recorded in the year to September 2024. However, the bank noted that while this represents progress, it remains below the economy’s long-term potential.

Westpac highlighted that recent improvements in the Leading Index coincide with mixed signals on broader economy. A key concern for RBA is the labor market, where the “rebalancing” stalled in H2 2024.

“A further slowdown in underlying measures of inflation could still see the Bank ease in February or April but we suspect the RBA will need to be more comfortable about some of these risks before it is prepared to begin easing,” Westpac noted.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6224; (P) 0.6257; (R1) 0.6305;

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. With 0.6301 resistance intact, consolidations from 0.6130 should be relatively brief, and further decline is expected. Break of 0.6130 will resume the fall from 0.6941. However, firm break of 0.6310 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6352), and possibly above.

Kiwi Eases as NZ CPI Backs RBNZ 50bps Cut, Dollar Unmoved by Trump’s Continuous Tariff Talks_3

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is resuming with break of 0.6169 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806, In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6545) holds.

Kiwi Eases as NZ CPI Backs RBNZ 50bps Cut, Dollar Unmoved by Trump’s Continuous Tariff Talks_4

Source：Actionforex

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Economic

A second Trump presidency could increase US protectionism and merge economic and national security goals, placing pressure on allies like Australia. While initiatives such as AUKUS and critical minerals collaboration are key to reducing reliance on China, Australia faces the challenge of managing US political shifts while safeguarding its economic and security interests.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House coincides with and seems to be accentuating the so-called poly-crisis. The convergence of great power competition, looming environmental catastrophe, a spectrum of governance challenges and the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution sets the scene for iconoclastic behaviour in international relations in the United States, China and beyond. We should brace for impact.

For traditionally US-aligned countries like Australia, Trump’s return requires astute balancing of economic and national security priorities that do not readily align — and for which the past offers limited guidance.

Economists emphasise free-flowing, reciprocal trade, with global protocols and arbitration as fundamental for economic and human security. But this international order is under challenge, not just from Trump but also from China’s President Xi Jinping. China’s dominance in rare earth processing, intellectual property appropriation and market dumping is a form of adversarial mercantilism. This explains Washington’s protectionist reaction and the spike in the use of unilateral tariffs as a countermeasure.

Meanwhile, US disdain for UN-related international institutions and protocols it helped create leaves the rules-based international order faltering. These governance mechanisms are precariously poised, but remain key to global economic health, enabling international trade and arbitration mechanisms.

Cracks are emerging between the United States and allies like Australia due to distinct economic endowments and geographic realities. These will become more acute under a second Trump presidency. Trump’s presidency likely will result in a US economic and industrial policy recoil from China. The United States will not withdraw entirely, but there will be a closer alignment of US economic policy with national security policy.

Big US corporations like Elon Musk’s Tesla remain heavily invested in China. Pressuring Australia to abandon its China policy would be the height of double standards. US voters evidently do not want more trade deals with China, while a hard-line Beijing will not relinquish its goal of regional military expansion. This suggests that diversification, home-shoring or friend-shoring will feature even more so with Trump’s return.

Australia’s economy, by contrast, relies largely on the export of agricultural products, minerals and extracted ores, as well as international education, with little investment directly into China.

Australian economists largely still see trade with China as fundamental to national wellbeing and security. Home shoring is less viable, except for state-backed investments in rare earths, for instance, with significant environmental and economic costs. China’s 2020 ban on several Australian products sought to demonstrate the costs of displeasing Beijing, but the net effect on Australia was negligible and informed by national security perspectives, Australian policymakers and businesses successfully managed the domestic fallout.

But Trump’s threat of universal tariffs could turn the tables. Existing US trade and investment restrictions already undermine global economic rules and further tariffs are expected to accentuate tensions. Australian officials hope the economic equation — including the US trade surplus and favourable foreign direct investment figures — will help deflect such actions. After all, the United States is Australia’s largest foreign direct investor and, despite China’s prominence in trade volumes, it remains Australia’s greatest overall economic partner.

Partly out of its fear of abandonment, Australia has a long history of wanting to keep the United States engaged, while the United States has a longstanding interest in remaining engaged. This is manifest, in security terms, in over 80 years of deep trusted intelligence collaboration, the Joint Defence Facility at Pine Gap and the other defence facilities Australia shares with its US counterparts. There’s also a strong and relatively unique affinity, reflecting the many points of intersection of these continent-spanning, cosmopolitan, English-speaking, federal, constitutional democracies.

Meanwhile, China’s military has muscled-up to match its extraordinary economic growth, developing an arsenal with greater range, versatility and lethality. These advancements make China an unprecedented military and para-military competitor. Its Marxist–Leninist nationalism and chauvinistic exercise of sharp power points to the need to be wary. But continued trade and cooperation remains essential where national security concerns can be contained.

Finding the right balance involves careful diplomacy coupled with economic leaders recognising China is not just an emergent hegemon but also a growing challenge to the freedom of action, choice and behaviour of democracies that seek to avoid bending the knee to Chinese edicts.

In the mix for bigger military capabilities is AUKUS, the trilateral Australian–United Kingdom–United States arrangement for submarine nuclear propulsion technology sharing with Australia (Pillar 1), along with other collaborative advanced technology projects (Pillar 2).

Despite high costs and anticipated delays, AUKUS is likely to endure because it contributes to the deterrence of potential Chinese belligerence inimical to Australia’s interests. There are inherent advantages of nuclear propulsion submarines for continent-spanning nations with massive maritime zones and pervasive surveillance threats.

Alongside AUKUS, economic growth is key to funding soft and hard power, support and influence. Beyond iron ore, coal and gas, Australia has a suite of rare earths. But it struggling to utilise them due to China’s mercantilist market dominance. The Trump administration likely will engage countries like Australia in response. Creative and visionary engagement with industries in countries resisting Chinese mercantilism may be necessary to avoid vulnerabilities from complete dependence on China-sourced resources.

In essence, the overlapping interests and values between Australia and the United States highlight the need for Australia and like-minded countries to navigate the rough and tumble of US politics while seeking to reconcile economic security with national security.

Critical minerals are the bedrock of US defence, technology and energy security. The demand for Australian material is expected to grow considerably, even as strong trade ties with China persist. Meanwhile, Australia’s strategic partnership with the United States is robust and can be expected to survive the challenges of shifting political dynamics.

Source：Eastasiaforum

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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FX Daily: Tentative Tariff Optimism Keeps Dollar under Pressure

USD: Corporate tax discussion in focus

EUR: 1.050 would be stretch

NZD: Inflation data paves the way for half-point cut

CEE: Risk-on mood supports regional currencies

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9060-0.9065 Area, Above Two-Week Low Set on Wednesday

Source: FXSTREET

ECB President Lagarde: Economic Growth Faces Downside Risks, Calls for Steady Progress

India's Modi Mulls Lower Tariffs, More Imports to Counter Trump’s Threats

Source: Theedgemarkets

Natural Gas: Freeport Outage Sees TTF Surge

Source: FXSTREET

Kiwi Eases as NZ CPI Backs RBNZ 50bps Cut, Dollar Unmoved by Trump’s Continuous Tariff Talks

ECB’s Knot supports near-term rate cuts, not convinced of of stimulus mode

New Zealand CPI unchanged at 2.2% yoy, non-tradeable pressures persist

Australia’s Westpac Leading Index falls to 0.25%, signals gradual growth pickup

AUD/USD Daily Report

Source：Actionforex

Reconciling Economic and National Security in US–Australia Relations

Source：Eastasiaforum

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