Liquidations in Bitcoin, Altcoins Cooling Off

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The crypto market cap has shrunk to $3.6 trillion, down around 2% in the last 24 hours. The main volatility has been in Bitcoin, with Ethereum affected to a lesser extent and a barely noticeable ripple at the altcoin level. This is a strong signal of a short-term shakeout but not a change in sentiment.

Thursday’s US session saw a strong wave of profit-taking, which quickly turned into a liquidation of marginal long positions. Both bullish and bearish liquidation created a swing range of almost 13% in less than 24 hours. At its lowest point, the price of Bitcoin was down to $91,000. By early European trading, it had stabilised just below $98,000, back to where it started the day on Thursday.

Other stars of recent flights are also cooling off. Tron has stabilised around $0.32, roughly in the middle of this week’s range. XRP is cooling off, pulling back to $2.30, which is near the 76.4% level from the early November lows.

News Background

There is a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s rise above $100,000 and Tether’s increased supply of USDT stablecoin, said CEO Paolo Ardoino. Over the past 20 days, the stablecoin’s capitalisation has increased by approximately $16 billion.

CryptoQuant identified significant institutional demand from US investors based on Coinbase’s premium dynamics.

Mining company Hut 8 will sell $500 million worth of shares. The funds will be used to expand the company’s data centre infrastructure and to purchase Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) sees the integration of AI with blockchain, tokenisation and stablecoins as key areas of development for the crypto industry in 2025.

Justin Drake, one of Ethereum’s core developers, said the Solana network, touted as a “killer” of Ethereum, is not really a threat or even a direct competitor.

Arkham Intelligence noted that the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange moved 24,052 BTC ($2.47 billion) to an unknown address. This is the first major move of the exchange’s assets since 12 November, when the platform sent 2,500 BTC to two unknown addresses.

Source:FxPro

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Justin

Economic

The Canadian labour market gained 50.5k positions in November. Most of them were full-time jobs, which rose 54.2k, while part-time employment fell 3.6k.

The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% as more people joined the labour force (+138k). The labour force participation rate rebounded 0.3 percentage points to 65.1% after two months of decline.

Employment by sector showed gains in trade (+39k), construction (+18k), and professional, scientific and technical services (+17k). Declines were seen in manufacturing (-29k) and transportation and warehousing (-19k).

Lastly, despite so many new jobs, total hours worked fell 0.2% month-on-month due to labour disputes. Wages were up 4.1% year-on-year (from 4.9% in October).

Key Implications

Today’s jobs report had a lot of moving parts. Yes, the unemployment rate rose significantly, but this was due to a massive increase in the labour force rather than outright job losses. Remember that Statcan has cautioned people on using its jobs report population figures, which don’t match recent demographic data (also means caution of labour force figures). So, we should be taking this with a heavy hand of salt. Rather, we focus on the trend, where employment growth has held up well, with cyclically sensitive sectors driving gains over the last few months.

The Bank of Canada will make an interest rate announcement next Wednesday and markets are still on the fence as to whether the bank will cut by 50 or 25 bps. Recall that the BoC accelerated its rate cutting cycle with a 50 beeper in October as weak growth and an inflation undershoot raised fears that it was behind the curve. But since then, economic data have shown more resilience, with consumer spending, the real estate market, and price pressures rebounding. Even with the messiness of today’s employment report, the economy continues to add jobs, reinforcing our view that the labour market is on solid foundations. We think this should be enough to convince the central bank to revert to a 25 bp cut next week, but it will remain a close call for the central bank.

Source:Bank Financial Group

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

A political vacuum in France and Germany, the EU’s two biggest and most influential players, spells trouble for an already ailing European economy.

Yesterday the French Parliament voted no confidence in the Prime Minister, making Michel Barnier the shortest-serving head of government under the Fifth Republic.

President Emmanuel Macron will now be under pressure to appoint a replacement – and is even facing calls to resign himself.

The political dispute which tipped Barnier over the edge, over the 2025 annual budget, suggests it will now be even harder to address the country’s economic woes. With a deficit of 6.2% of GDP, France already has the worst budget imbalance in the eurozone.

Barnier’s plan sought to address that longstanding shortfall – using the maximum, seven-year timeframe that new EU fiscal rules allow.

Whoever forms the new government will now have great difficulty pushing tax and spending proposals through. There can be no new elections until the middle of next year, and none of the three blocs in France's National Assembly can muster a majority.

Many on the left have called to unwind wider reforms to the pension system which were a centrepiece of Macron’s liberal agenda; in the immediate term, the far-right Marine Le Pen was calling for the costly policy of indexing pensions in line with inflation.

Worse still, the crisis in Paris comes alongside a malaise in the EU’s other economic and political powerhouse – Germany.

The bloc’s biggest member will next year also be its economically worst performing: Germany is predicted by the European Commission to grow 0.7% next year, after shrinking in 2024.

And Berlin is facing political troubles of its own. The ruling three-party coalition collapsed in November, following disagreements on fiscal policy between socialist leader Olaf Scholz and his liberal finance minister Christian Lindner.

Scholz has called early elections for February. During the intervening governance chaos, Berlin has not sent the EU any plan for how it will address its deficit over the coming years – despite having led the political call for Brussels to have strict fiscal rules.

Europe’s gloomy economic picture isn’t likely to get rosier.

There are increasingly frosty relations with major trading partner China, as the EU seeks to “derisk” from an increasing geopolitical foe.

US President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to impose 10% tariffs on European goods will pose a further headache – imposing both a direct economic cost on EU exporters, and a tough choice for national leaders as to how to retaliate.

The threat of Russian aggression, and possible US turn away from NATO, will also mean Europe needs to reach into their pockets to invest in the military.

And the political vacuum threatens to hamper

wider efforts to address a sluggish European economy.

In recent months, two former Italian Prime Ministers Draghi, Letta have issued gloomy warnings about European competitiveness, which has been far outpaced by the US.

But with little guidance from Paris and Berlin, the two capitals seen as the motors of the European project, it’s not clear if their proposed solutions will be heeded.

Draghi and Letta have proposed some politically difficult ideas: common borrowing via euroboonds, building up capital markets, or a new pan-European investment fund, matching the US’s massive green tech subsidies.

In practice those ideas could involve risk sharing with other governments, increased financial contributions to Brussels, further reform pensions systems or sweeping away national financial watchdogs. That’s a toxic political mix for any national government to champion; still less a fatally weakened one.

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

ING

Central Bank

227k jobs added, but remember to factor in strikes and Hurricane Milton haha

US non-farm payrolls have come in at 227k for November, very close to the 220k consensus. There were 56k of upward revisions to the past two months. Private sector payrolls are weaker though, posting an increase of 194k versus a 205k consensus figure while the usual suspects of government, leisure & hospitality and private education & healthcare services accounted for 165k of the total 227k figure. Moreover, this report has to be viewed in the context of the returning Boeing workers who had been on strike through October and return of workers not counted due to Hurricane Milton impacting the number count in Florida and other states. Therefore the “true” payrolls figure is closer to 115k. If we take an average of October and November to account for the distortions it is 131.5k, so the cooling trend remains very much in place.

Monthly change in US non-farm payrolls (000s)

Softish US Jobs Report Favours a December Rate Cut_1

Market momentum builds for a 25bp cut on 18 December

The household survey was weaker, showing that employment on that basis fell 355k after a 368k drop in October. This has led the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% from 4.1% (consensus was for it to stay at 4.1%). In fact we weren't too far from getting a 4.3% figure on rounding since to 3 decimal places it was 4.246%. We also see that the number of full-time workers fell again while part-time employment continues to rise. This yet again suggests that the quality of jobs that the US economy is generating is not especially great.

On balance this report keeps the 25bp December rate cut narrative in favour over a no change outcome – the market is currently pricing 23bp of a 25bp cut versus 16bp just ahead of the data release. We continue to think the Fed will indeed cut by 25bp, just to keep policy moving from restrictive territory towards neutral. However they are set to signal a slowing in the pace of cuts with a pause at the January FOMC meeting looking likely. This risk to that view is next week’s core CPI print coming in hot. The consensus is 0.3%, but so long as that is closer to 0.25% rather than 0.349% we think they will indeed opt to cut on 18 December.

Source: ING

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Commodity

Europe’s industry is set to lose further competitiveness as high energy prices, rising natural gas prices, and concerns about gas supply this winter are increasing uncertainty about factory utilization amid rising costs.

European benchmark natural gas prices are hovering around a one-year high hit last month as cold snaps in November dashed hopes and prayers of a third relatively mild winter in a row.

In recent weeks, Europe has been depleting its natural gas stocks at the fastest pace since 2016 as demand has increased with the colder temperatures.

This adds to the looming end of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 and growing competition for spot LNG supply with Asia for winter demand.

As a result, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, jumped last month to a 2024 high and continued to rise in early December, boosting power prices across Europe and raising energy costs for businesses.

This winter could inflict more pain on industries relying on natural gas and force curtailments in production, analysts and industry executives have told Reuters.

The much higher energy costs in Europe are putting its industries at a disadvantage compared to the U.S., Asia, or the Middle East.

For example, the current Dutch hub price is almost five times higher than the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub.

The highest spot-based electricity prices in Europe since February 2023 threaten industrial production in key economies and loom large over business sentiment.

The rising energy costs threaten major European economies, just as Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter of the year. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, Eurostat’s flash estimate has shown. That was higher than expected as the two top economies, those of Germany and France, outperformed forecasts.

Source: OILPRICE

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Stocks

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures are trending up +0.01% this morning as investors cautiously awaited the all-important U.S. jobs report that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve will lower or hold interest rates in December.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended lower. Synopsys plunged over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chip design software firm provided below-consensus 2025 revenue guidance. Also, SentinelOne slumped more than -13% after the cybersecurity company reported a wider-than-expected Q3 loss.

In addition, American Eagle Outfitters tumbled over -14% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and cutting its full-year comparable sales forecast. On the bullish side, Brown-Forman climbed more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat FQ2 results. Also, Tesla gained over +3% after BofA raised its price target on the stock to $400 from $350.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +9K to a 6-week high of 224K, compared with the 215K expected. Also, the U.S. October trade deficit narrowed to -$73.80B from -$83.80B in September, better than expectations of -$75.70B.

“We’ll get a fuller picture from [Friday’s] monthly jobs report, but for now, the story continues to be a labor market that occasionally appears to bend, but avoids breaking,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 32.5% chance of no rate change at December’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that November Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 218K, compared to October’s figure of 12K.

A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 45% of investors expect key U.S. jobs data to be “mixed/negligible,” 32% anticipate it will be “risk-off,” and 23% foresee “risk-on.”

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists expect November figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to remain steady at 4.1% in November.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will come in today. Economists forecast the preliminary December figure to be 73.1, up from last month’s figure of 71.8.

U.S. Consumer Credit data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to stand at $10.10B in October, compared to the previous figure of $6.00B.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.195%, up +0.32%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.34% this morning as investors continued to monitor political developments in France while also awaiting the key U.S. jobs report. Final data from Eurostat released on Friday confirmed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany’s monthly industrial production fell again in October, highlighting ongoing challenges in the sector.

Meanwhile, French President Macron pledged to appoint a new Prime Minister in the coming days and form a “government of general interest.” Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, told Bloomberg News that a budget could be delivered within weeks. In corporate news, Direct Line Insurance Group Plc climbed over +6% after receiving a sweetened takeover offer from Aviva Plc.

Germany’s Industrial Production, Eurozone’s GDP, and Eurozone’s Employment Change data were released today.

The German October Industrial Production arrived at -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

Eurozone GDP has been reported at +0.4% q/q and +0.9% y/y in the third quarter, in line with expectations.

Eurozone Employment Change stood at +0.2% q/q and +1.0% y/y in the third quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.05%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.77%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today amid expectations that Chinese authorities will announce additional stimulus measures at a key policy meeting next week. The benchmark index posted its second consecutive weekly gain. Insurance and technology stocks outperformed on Friday.

Healthcare stocks also gained ground on upbeat sentiment following media reports that U.S. lawmakers are considering a potential compromise on the Biosecure Act. Meanwhile, investors are looking forward to the Central Economic Work Conference for potential policy updates.

Bloomberg News reported earlier this week that the nation’s top leaders are expected to outline economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025 at the annual closed-door meeting starting Wednesday. Expectations are also growing among Wall Street banks that the People’s Bank of China will implement its largest interest rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers ramp up efforts to bolster growth and counter deflation.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the firms forecasting cuts of 40 basis points to the PBOC’s main policy rate in 2025. In corporate news, Yibin Paper Industry surged about +10% on plans to apply for a 124 million yuan loan to partially fund the acquisition of an acetate fiber company.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as investors booked profits following four days of gains, with caution prevailing ahead of key U.S. jobs data scheduled for release later in the day. Chip stocks were among the worst performers on Friday, pressured by overnight losses in their U.S. counterparts.

Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index ended the week with gains. Government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s base salary increased at the fastest pace in 32 years in October, boosting real wages after two months of declines.

This could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike in December. Separately, preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, fell more than expected in October.

In addition, data showed that Japanese household spending fell at a slower-than-anticipated rate in October. Meanwhile, Yoshihiko Noda, leader of Japan’s largest opposition party, told Reuters on Friday that the BOJ should hike interest rates and persist in winding down its controversial stimulus program.

In other news, a Reuters poll indicated that the Japanese economy likely grew in the third quarter at the same moderate pace as initially reported, but an uptick in private consumption may be short-lived and could cast doubt about policymakers’ views on the growth outlook. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.10% to 22.92.

The Japanese October Household Spending came in at +2.9% m/m and -1.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and -2.6% y/y.

The Japanese October Leading Index arrived at 108.6, weaker than expectations of 108.9.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Ulta Beauty surged over +11% in pre-market trading after the cosmetics retailer reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year EPS guidance.

Lululemon Athletica climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after the athleisure retailer posted solid Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Source: Barchart

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Commodity

Crude Oil dips below $68.00 on Friday as selling pressure persists once OPEC+ has officially confirmed it will only delay its output normalization schedule by three months. That was the consensus view of markets, and investors took it as far too little in order to solve the current supply glut that is flooding the Oil market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) – which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies – is trading steady ahead of the US Jobs Report this Friday. Expectations of job growth have tempered a little bit after earlier this week several economic data points linked to employment were not sending a solid signal to markets. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will be present as well in today’s economic calendar with four Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day.

Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ assumes too much

The recent OPEC+ decision to delay a revival of supply to April will pare global Oil output next year, tightening balances somewhat, but a glut is still widely expected, according to banks and industry consultants, Bloomberg reports.

Oil flows from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline into the Czech Republic have restarted, according to Orlen SA, a refinery operator, Bloomberg reports.

OPEC+ pointed in its assessment to President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to slap more sanctions on Venezuela and Iran over their Oil exports, which should resolve a portion of the oversupply.

The weekly Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is due at 18:00 GMT. The expectation is for a small uptick to 478 from 477 in last week’s count.

Oil Technical Analysis: This will not resolve itself

Crude Oil price looks set for more downturn with OPEC+ unable to firmly address the issue of oversupply coming from non-OPEC+ countries. President-elect Donald Trump clearly is a key element in the OPEC+ assessment as he has vowed to drill more Oil than ever and promised to issue more Oil embargoes against Venezuela and Iran. OPEC+ seems to be forgetting that one will outweigh the other, and that the current sluggish economic global growth isn’t likely to absorb the persistent oversupply.

The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.11 triggered a firm rejection on Wednesday which is still playing out. Should tensions in the Middle East flare up, $71.46 with the 100-day SMA at $71.54 will act as thick resistance. In case Oil traders can plough through that level, $75.27 is up next as a pivotal level.

On the other side, traders see $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – as the last man standing. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Liquidations in Bitcoin, Altcoins Cooling Off

News Background

Source:FxPro

Canada’s Labour Market Shows Underlying Momentum in November

Key Implications

Source:Bank Financial Group

Political Crises in France and Germany Spell More Trouble for Europe's Ailing Economy - Analysis

Source: Euronews

Softish US Jobs Report Favours a December Rate Cut

227k jobs added, but remember to factor in strikes and Hurricane Milton haha

Monthly change in US non-farm payrolls (000s)

Market momentum builds for a 25bp cut on 18 December

Source: ING

Europe’s Industry Set To Suffer As Natural Gas Prices Surge

Source: OILPRICE

S&P Futures Tread Water With All Eyes on Key U.S. Jobs Report

Source: Barchart

Crude Oil Slips Below $68.00 As Headwinds Mount

Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ assumes too much

Oil Technical Analysis: This will not resolve itself

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Disclosure