Loonie’s Turbulent Times Have Just Begun

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The Canadian dollar collapsed by more than 1.4% against the US dollar after Trump threatened to impose new 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and to increase tariffs on China by 10% immediately after taking office.

Following the announcement, USDCAD jumped to 1.4170, a high since 23 April 2020. The context is interesting in this case, as a few days earlier, the price of oil went into negative territory for the first time in history. Previously, the highest price of the pair was recorded in early 2016, when oil fell below $30. So, these were periods of extremely low oil prices compared to current oil prices.

Over the past 20 years, USDCAD has only reached these levels during periods of turbulence, trading above 1.4100 for only a few dozen days cumulatively in the two episodes of 2016 and 2020. However, the phrase “period of turbulence” could well apply to the currency market for much of the Trump presidency, with sudden announcements and outbursts which are then dramatically reversed by periods of warming and de-escalation.

Historically, the Canadian dollar depreciated steadily against the US dollar between 1997 and 2003. This was also due to a period of extremely low energy prices caused by rising supply and the Asian crisis.

USDCAD has now reached levels above 1.4000, with oil prices much more comfortable. A further fall in ‘liquid gold’ prices could be the anchor that pulls the Canadian Loonie down. However, there is a positive side to this relationship: the Republican Party often supports the interests of companies involved in the production of conventional hydrocarbons.

Investors face a fork in the road here. The first path is to create the conditions for an increase in the price of oil. This could be done by increasing purchases into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or by lobbying for the interests of US companies abroad through tariffs and sanctions.

The second way is to try to maximise overall profits by increasing production, the so-called “drill, baby, drill” that was so expected from Trump’s policy.

So far, we see more chances of the first scenario unfolding, which could be good news for the Canadian dollar in the long run. In the short term, however, the period of turbulence could continue, suggesting that the best time to open USDCAD shorts is yet to come.

On the daily timeframe, the pair is far from the overbought conditions that reversed the momentum earlier and could well slip into the 1.4500 area and higher before peaking.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Economic

Global Macro and Markets

Global Markets: Monday's dramatic rally in bond prices saw a mild reversion on Tuesday. 10Y yields were up 2bp to 4.30% while yields on the 2 year UST were down 1bp to 4.256%. This still leaves yields well off the highs seen in previous weeks. And we continue to anticipate a market preference to do some more downside testing for yields in the coming weeks. Trade talks are clearly heating up with president-elect Trump tweeting that he will impose tariffs of 25% on all goods from Mexico and Canada and additional tariffs of 10% on goods from China (already subject to tariffs). This has shifted the risk of more action coming sooner than end of 4Q - which we were previously expecting. EURUSD fell below 1.05 and the USD strengthened against most currencies especially the Mexican peso and IDR. The IDR might flirt with 16K levels today. Equity markets were buoyed by some US consumer confidence data that rose to the highest in a year and markets appeared to look past the tariff talk. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were both up about 0.6%, with gains led by consumer discretionary and software.

G7 Macro: FOMC minutes showed broad support for a careful approach to future rate cuts. The Conference Board’s confidence gauge rose 2.1 points to 111.7 this month. The figure was in line with the median estimate. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly the strong labour market. Today we get another data point that will impact the Fed’s thinking – the core personal consumer expenditure deflator. This favoured measure of inflation incorporates contributions from both the CPI report and the PPI report, and given the data we have had, it points to a 0.3% MoM outcome. We need the MoM rate to average 0.17% MoM over time to bring the annual rate down to 2%, so a 0.3% outcome is too hot for the Fed to be completely comfortable with the inflation story.

Australia: A mixed bag for Australian October, inflation, as the headline inflation rate remained at 2.1% for a second month (lower than expected) but the trimmed mean rate rose from 3.2% to 3.5%. All in all, there is nothing in this to shake our thoughts that the RBA will remain on the sidelines until next year.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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IC Markets

Economic

Markets Rally After Trump Tariff Update – Nasdaq Adds 0.45%

US stock markets rallied on Tuesday as the market reacted to President-elect Donald Trump’s updated tariff pledges and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The Dow finished 0.19% higher, while the Nasdaq and S&P both added 0.45% on the day. The dollar continued to strengthen, particularly against the CAD, MXN, and CNH, with the DXY closing up 0.1% at 106.89. Treasury yields also rose following the Fed meeting minutes, which highlighted a split within the FOMC regarding the pace and extent of rate cuts. The two-year yield edged up by 0.6 basis points to 4.258%, while the ten-year yield climbed 4.6 basis points to 4.306%. Oil and gold prices remained relatively subdued, with haven factors balancing each other out as the Middle East ceasefire contends with increasing tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Brent crude fell 0.27% to $72.81, WTI dropped 0.25% to $68.77, and gold edged up 0.18% to $2,629.86.

Tariff Trades to Dominate FX Going Forward

FX traders received a glimpse of what lies ahead yesterday, as President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his plans to implement tariffs once he assumes office in early 2025. The dollar has strengthened significantly over recent weeks, particularly against the currencies of nations Trump has pledged to target, with China, Mexico, and Canada at the forefront. However, this trend had momentarily eased following the announcement that market-friendly Scott Bessent will serve as Treasury Secretary.

Trump’s strong update yesterday reignited market movement, with the dollar surging over 2.5% against the MXN, 1.5% against the CAD (hitting a four-year high), and the CNH reaching levels last seen in late July. For many traders, the session evoked memories of his previous term, when Trump’s tweets often wielded more influence than macroeconomic fundamentals. Many now anticipate a similar dynamic to unfold in 2025.

Action-Packed Trading Calendar Today

An eventful macroeconomic calendar and ongoing geopolitical developments are set to keep traders alert today. It is a busy session for antipodean markets, with key Australian CPI figures due ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest interest rate decision. Markets remain divided over whether the RBNZ will announce a 50 or 75 basis point cut.

The London session has no notable economic releases, but the New York session promises to be active, as several US economic indicators are set to be published before the Thanksgiving holiday. Prelim GDP, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, and core PCE data are all scheduled. The core PCE figure is likely to have the most significant impact, especially if it deviates substantially from the forecasted 0.3% month-on-month increase.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Venu Holding Corp., the company behind Notes Live, Inc., is gearing up for an initial public offering (IPO) that could mark a significant step forward in the live event and streaming technology sector. Based in Colorado Springs, Venu Holding aims to raise $10 million in its IPO by offering 1 million shares at a price range of $10 per share. The company’s focus on providing cutting-edge virtual event management solutions and streamlining live event experiences places it in a promising position in an increasingly digital world.

What Is Notes Live, Inc.?

Notes Live, the flagship platform of Venu Holding Corp., is designed to manage both in-person and virtual live events. With a growing demand for hybrid events — those that combine live and virtual elements — Venu Holding has identified an opportunity to become a leader in this niche sector. By offering tools for seamless event streaming, ticketing, audience engagement, and event management, the platform caters to a broad range of industries, from entertainment to corporate events.

The platform has become an integral solution as businesses and event organizers seek to reach global audiences while managing both in-person and remote participants. As hybrid events continue to be in demand due to their flexibility and global reach, Notes Live is positioned to grow its market share in this fast-evolving space.

IPO Details and What to Expect

Venu Holding Corp.'s upcoming IPO plans to raise funds through the sale of 1 million shares, priced at $10 each. The company is seeking a total of $10 million in gross proceeds. These funds will be pivotal in further developing Notes Live, expanding the company's technology infrastructure, and supporting its growth strategies in the live event sector. The IPO is a significant step in the company’s trajectory to scale its operations and invest in new product development to cater to an expanding market for hybrid and virtual events.

The $10 per share price point is an appealing entry for investors, considering it is relatively modest compared to similar tech offerings. If successful, the IPO could allow Venu Holding to accelerate its growth and become a key player in the live events and digital streaming industries.

Growth Potential and Market Position

Venu Holding’s timing for an IPO could not be more strategic. As the world adapts to more virtual and hybrid events, companies like Venu Holding have an opportunity to disrupt the traditional live event space. The global live events industry is evolving, and solutions that integrate in-person and digital components are becoming more necessary for companies to remain competitive and relevant in this new landscape.

The company’s technology enables organizations to host dynamic events that are accessible from anywhere in the world, allowing both speakers and audiences to connect virtually. With significant attention on tech-driven live events, particularly in the entertainment, education, and corporate sectors, Notes Live offers a comprehensive suite of tools designed to make event management easier and more impactful.

Risks and Considerations

While the growth potential is evident, as with any IPO, investors must weigh the risks. The live event technology sector is highly competitive, with established players already offering similar services. Additionally, the success of the IPO depends on broader market conditions and how effectively Venu Holding can scale its technology platform and attract a steady stream of users. The company will need to prove that its platform can meet the evolving needs of the event industry while maintaining user engagement and profitability.

What’s Next for Venu Holding Corp.?

Looking ahead, Venu Holding aims to expand its market reach and solidify its position as a leader in the live event technology sector. The IPO will help fuel this expansion, enabling the company to reinvest in its platform and enhance its offerings. Investors will need to monitor the company’s performance post-IPO and evaluate whether its growth trajectory aligns with the ambitious goals outlined in its prospectus.

Conclusion

Venu Holding Corp. (Notes Live, Inc.) is preparing for a promising IPO that presents an exciting opportunity for investors interested in the live event and digital streaming markets. With its innovative platform, solid market positioning, and timely entry into the booming hybrid event space, the company has strong growth potential. However, as with any investment, careful evaluation and consideration of the risks involved will be crucial for potential investors.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

The CJMB IPO, set to be launched by Callan JMB Inc., presents an intriguing opportunity for investors, particularly those interested in the growing tech and financial sectors. This public offering is attracting attention due to its combination of market potential and the strategic positioning of the company. Here's an overview of the Callan JMB IPO, what investors should expect, and the factors that could influence its success.

What is CJMB (Callan JMB Inc.)?

CJMB, or Callan JMB Inc., is a company focused on innovative technology solutions and financial services. The company's core strengths lie in its unique offerings within both sectors, as it looks to leverage emerging technologies and disrupt existing market paradigms. Its business model includes a blend of traditional financial services and cutting-edge technology solutions, making it attractive to a wide range of investors.

The IPO Details

The Callan JMB IPO is set to issue shares under the ticker CJMB, with the offering amount expected to be significant. Based on the latest available details, the company is targeting a price range that would position it in the mid-tier tech space in terms of valuation. The pricing details and the volume of shares to be issued will be finalized as part of the offering process, with a potential for strong demand given the growing interest in IPOs within the tech space.

Market Position and Potential

CJMB's core business operations involve cutting-edge fintech solutions, and it aims to capitalize on the booming global demand for technological advancements in finance. The company has already established a strong presence in investment platforms, fintech apps, and automated trading technologies, placing it in a promising position for future growth.

The market conditions are ripe for this IPO, especially as investors are increasingly looking for high-growth tech firms. The global fintech market is expected to continue its expansion in the coming years, making CJMB a potential beneficiary of this trend.

Financial Outlook and Valuation

Though precise financial data from the company is not fully available at the moment, expectations are high. Based on previous filings and the nature of its industry, Callan JMB Inc. has the potential to raise significant capital during this IPO. The valuation of the company will largely depend on investor demand, market conditions, and the company's financials once they are disclosed.

It's important to consider that tech and fintech IPOs, especially those tied to the growth in automation and blockchain technologies, often attract heavy attention from institutional investors. This could drive the valuation upwards, especially if the IPO is met with strong demand.

Risks and Considerations

As with any IPO, there are inherent risks. Investors should be aware of the volatility that often accompanies early-stage public offerings, particularly in the tech sector. The market for financial technology, while expanding rapidly, is highly competitive, with many other companies vying for similar market share. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny in financial markets is increasingly becoming stringent, which could impact growth projections.

Conclusion

The CJMB IPO, from Callan JMB Inc., offers investors a compelling opportunity to tap into the rapidly growing tech-financial services sector. The company’s innovative approach to integrating financial technologies with traditional markets makes it a promising contender in the fintech space. However, as with all IPOs, there are risks involved, and potential investors should weigh these carefully.

With the IPO date approaching, the market will soon see if CJMB’s offering can meet the high expectations set by its initial filings. Keep an eye on this IPO, as it could become a significant player in the fintech landscape.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Pony AI Inc., a rising star in the autonomous driving industry, is set to debut on the public markets with its Initial Public Offering (IPO). As of the week of November 27, 2024, Pony AI aims to raise $260 million by offering 20 million shares at a price of $13 per share. With its cutting-edge technology and strong backing from some of the world’s top financial institutions, the IPO has attracted significant attention. The launch is poised to give investors an opportunity to capitalize on the rapidly growing autonomous vehicle market.

The Rise of Pony AI: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous Driving

Founded in 2016, Pony AI is spearheading innovation in the autonomous vehicle space. Its mission is to make transportation safer, more efficient, and more accessible through advanced AI-driven self-driving technologies. Pony AI’s self-driving system leverages deep learning, computer vision, and big data analytics to allow vehicles to operate autonomously in urban environments, as well as on highways. This technology enables vehicles to navigate with minimal human intervention, making the roads safer and paving the way for a fully autonomous future.

The company has achieved impressive milestones in the realm of autonomous driving, with successful tests conducted across multiple cities and its technology integrated into various test fleets. Pony AI has also collaborated with major automakers and tech companies to refine its systems and expand its reach. These partnerships have not only accelerated the development of its technology but also bolstered its credibility in a competitive industry. As of its IPO filing, Pony AI is looking to expand these partnerships and continue enhancing its AI capabilities.

The IPO Process: Backed by Heavyweights

Pony AI's IPO is being underwritten by a group of prestigious financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Securities, Deutsche Bank Securities, Huatai Securities, and Tiger Brokers. These companies bring decades of experience in managing high-profile public offerings, positioning Pony AI for a successful debut in the market.

The IPO aims to raise $260 million by offering shares at an initial price range of $13 each. The funds generated from the offering will be used to accelerate the development of Pony AI’s autonomous driving systems, expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles, and scale its operations. As the global demand for autonomous vehicles continues to grow, Pony AI plans to use the capital to capitalize on market opportunities in both the consumer and commercial sectors.

Market Growth Potential: Autonomous Vehicles on the Horizon

The autonomous vehicle market is poised for explosive growth in the coming decades. Analysts estimate that the industry could reach trillions of dollars by 2030, driven by increasing demand for safer, more efficient, and eco-friendly transportation solutions. Pony AI, with its strong technology base and strategic partnerships, is well-positioned to become a key player in this multi-billion-dollar sector.

Beyond consumer vehicles, Pony AI has been exploring applications for its technology in logistics, ride-hailing, and freight. The company’s potential to disrupt multiple sectors with its self-driving solutions makes it an attractive investment prospect for both traditional and tech-focused investors. Moreover, the company's innovations in AI and machine learning provide a competitive edge that will allow it to scale rapidly as market demand increases.

What Investors Can Expect

The market reaction to Pony AI’s IPO will likely be closely watched, with expectations high given the company’s strong market position and future growth potential. The IPO not only offers a chance to invest in a cutting-edge technology but also aligns with broader trends in the automotive and technology sectors, making it an appealing option for investors looking to tap into the next frontier of transportation.

Pony AI’s IPO is also noteworthy because it signals the continued maturation of the autonomous driving industry. As more companies go public, including established firms and startups, investors will have a wider array of opportunities to gain exposure to this transformative technology. For Pony AI, the IPO marks the next step in its journey toward becoming a global leader in self-driving solutions.

Conclusion: A New Era in Transportation

Pony AI's upcoming IPO marks a critical juncture for the company and the autonomous vehicle industry as a whole. With its advanced technology, strategic partnerships, and growing market demand for autonomous solutions, the company is positioned to lead the way in transforming the transportation landscape. For investors, this IPO offers a unique opportunity to get in on the ground floor of one of the most promising sectors of the next decade.

As Pony AI moves closer to its IPO date, all eyes will be on how the stock performs post-launch. For those with a keen interest in technology and innovation, Pony AI could become a company to watch as it plays an increasingly prominent role in shaping the future of mobility.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin edged off multiday lows on Nov. 26 after a brutal day liquidated over $500 million of crypto longs. Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_1

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin risks new sell-off if $92,500 zone lost

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed $92,600 forming a local BTC price bottom on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD had fallen $5,000 over the course of the Nov. 25 daily candle, and a modest bounce from the lows was not enough to convince market participants that the worst was over.

“Nothing about this chart resembles a validated support test for $BTC,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, commented in part of an X post about 4-hour timeframes.

“At least not without landing on anything that looks like s prior consolidation or R/S Flip level. I could be wrong, but this feels like a short term bounce to trap some longs.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_2

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_2

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

Popular trader Skew flagged the area immediately beneath the local lows as essential for bulls to hold.

“To me the $92.5K - $92K area on BTC is very important now,” he told X followers.

“Losing that I think the market as whole would sell off.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_3

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

A further post described $92,500 as the “pivotal price between higher & a deeper correction.”

“A nice similarity here though is the pullback so far is around the same % as the previous ATH to initial low pullback,” Skew noted, referring to Bitcoin’s first trip to $93,500 earlier in November.

BTC traders retain taste for leverage

Meanwhile, data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put total cross-crypto liquidations over the 24 hours to the time of writing at $525 million.

“See how nicely the levered longs were swept. Nothing left to liquidate on the long side,” Sina, co-founder of asset management firm 21st Capital, reacted on X.

“Now imagine what can happen if the price begins rising and takes out that $1.5B short liquidation level at $97K.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_4

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_4

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Sina added that Bitcoin had a chance to launch another “assault” on $100,000 if funding rates were to stay at manageable levels.

On a cautionary note, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, warned that overall leverage remained elevated despite the liquidation event.

“Despite the recent deleveraging, leverage levels remain high,” he commented alongside CryptoQuant data.

“Key long positions were built around $93K, giving bears a chance to profit before the price approaches this level.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_5

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_5

Bitcoin adjusted estimated leverage ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

Source: Cointelegraph

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Loonie’s Turbulent Times Have Just Begun

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Global Macro and Markets

General Market Analysis – 27/11/24

Markets Rally After Trump Tariff Update – Nasdaq Adds 0.45%

Tariff Trades to Dominate FX Going Forward

Action-Packed Trading Calendar Today

Venu Holding Corp. (Notes Live, Inc.) IPO: A Strategic Move in the Event Tech Space

What Is Notes Live, Inc.?

IPO Details and What to Expect

Growth Potential and Market Position

Risks and Considerations

What’s Next for Venu Holding Corp.?

Conclusion

A Comprehensive Look at the CJMB IPO: What Investors Need to Know

What is CJMB (Callan JMB Inc.)?

The IPO Details

Market Position and Potential

Financial Outlook and Valuation

Risks and Considerations

Conclusion

Pony AI IPO: A Groundbreaking Move in the Autonomous Vehicle Sector

The Rise of Pony AI: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous Driving

The IPO Process: Backed by Heavyweights

Market Growth Potential: Autonomous Vehicles on the Horizon

What Investors Can Expect

Conclusion: A New Era in Transportation

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin risks new sell-off if $92,500 zone lost

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

BTC traders retain taste for leverage

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin adjusted estimated leverage ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

Source: Cointelegraph

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