Germany’s government is poised to cut its prediction for Europe’s biggest economy, and now expects no expansion at all this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials in Berlin are set to cut their forecast for growth in 2024 to — at best — stagnation, down from 0.3% previously projected, said the people, who declined to be identified because the predictions remain confidential for now. 

Such an outcome would mean yet another lost year for an economy that has been weighed down by the weakness of its industrial sector, amid the shutdown in gas supply after the invasion of Ukraine, as well as feeble Chinese demand and its struggle to pivot to electric vehicle production.

The prospect of no growth is an effective admission of defeat by the coalition government and another blow to the record of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who hasn’t seen the economy grow for two consecutive quarters since taking office in December 2021.

With an election now less than a year away, it also narrows the window perilously for him to achieve any meaningful pickup before going to voters, whose discontent has already made itself known this year in ballots for the European Parliament and in eastern states. 

Traders now see a roughly 80% chance of a quarter-point reduction next month, swiftly off the back of a move in September, as signs keep mounting that the euro-area economy is slowing.

The government’s final estimate for 2024 might come in even weaker than zero growth for Germany depending on industrial orders and output data due shortly before the release of its updated forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) on Oct 9, the people said. 

Economy Ministry officials are currently working on the new projection, which could still change before its final release. 

No expansion, if that can be achieved, would still exceed the result of a 0.1% contraction anticipated by the nation’s leading economic institutes in the past week.

A string of bad news — from Volkswagen AG’s threat to close factories in Germany to Intel Corp’s decision to postpone a €30 billion (US$33.5 billion or RM138.53 billion) investment decision for a new chip plant in the country’s east — underlines the additional headwinds bearing down on the economy. 

Together with weak demand from China and the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House, Germany is heading towards a perfect storm, which could depress GDP even further, one of the people said.

Weaker growth prospects would dent tax revenues, which could further complicate efforts in Scholz’s ruling coalition to close a budget gap in the 2025 finance plan. However, it would also allow more net new borrowings — roughly an additional €2 billion — under a debt rule that allows the government to take on more debt in economic difficult times, the people said.

A spokesperson for the Economy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. 

Source: The edge markets

Singapore’s former biggest oil trader Lim Oon Kuin and his heirs have received a bill for $3.5 billion to settle with the liquidators of Lim’s trading business, Bloomberg has reported, citing unnamed sources in the know.

The oil tycoon was earlier this year convicted on three charges, including two charges of deception targeting lender HSBC and one charge of document forgery with the intent to deceive the bank. These were the only three criminal charges that reached court of a total of 130 charges of forgery and cheating, the Business Times reported at the time.

Lim set up his company Hin Leong Trading Pte. back in the 1970s and it eventually turned into the biggest oil trading entity in Singapore. However, it all came crashing down when it was revealed that Lim had used his employees to forge documents aimed at deceiving HSBC that Hin Leong had sealed two oil sale deals with Chinese companies: Unipec and China Aviation Oil.

These deals made the basis for a request for financing from the British lender. The sum of the loans that the oil trader received under false pretenses was at least $111.7 million. Lim denied he had asked employees to forge documents for the purpose of deceiving the company’s lender.

However, that deal turned out to be just the tip of the iceberg. Last year, after Hin Leong Trading went into compulsory liquidation, liquidators alleged that Lim and his children has been engaged in fraud for years, presenting the company as a healthy going concern when in fact it had been loss-making for a decade.

Between 2010 and 2020, the liquidators alleged, Lim and his two children had overstated Hin Leong’s profits by $2.1 billion, while the company had in fact incurred losses of some $808 million from trade with futures and swaps, Channel News Asia reported a year ago. It was in this case that the court ruled the family must pay $3.5 billion in compensation - the sum that liquidators had asked to be awarded to them.

Source: OILPRICE

Bitcoin’s price will benefit from the upcoming United States presidential election regardless of who wins, according to the investment chief behind ZX Squared Capital.

The impact of April’s Bitcoin halving event has historically led to strong fourth quarters, and both US presidential candidates have failed to address a key issue that could play into Bitcoin’s favor, CK Zheng, chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, told Cointelegraph. 

“As both Republican and Democratic parties do not appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election, this will be very bullish for Bitcoin especially post the US election.”

Bitcoin has also benefited from uncertainties regarding previous US presidential elections, and Zheng said it won’t be any different this time.

Additionally, CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin has historically soared in the fourth quarter, rallying more than 50% six times since 2013. Years in which Bitcoin halving events occur has often boosted those gains.

During the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rallied 168% in the fourth quarter; it also happened to be the year the last US presidential election took place.

Zheng expects Bitcoin to notch a new all-time high in Q4 or soon after.

Still, Samantha Yap, CEO and founder of Web3 PR firm YAP, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin rallies and their resulting price rises are often the “least interesting aspect.” 

“What matters is the surge in retail interest across the crypto industry that follows. Media attention often follows retail attention, kicking off a whole media frenzy. The hope for the crypto and Web3 space during these moments is that there are more usable and accessible applications ready for newcomers to adopt.”

Zheng said the Federal Reserve’s “aggressive” 50 basis point interest-rate cut could also be “bullish” for Bitcoin and risk-on assets if the US economy can achieve a “soft landing.”

Central banks aim to achieve soft landings by changing interest rates enough to prevent an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, but not enough to cause a downturn.

If the Federal Reserve is successful, Zheng expects Bitcoin’s price to be closely correlated with the NASDAQ. 

”Liquidity is slowly being reintroduced into the market, which may set the stage for stronger price movements in the months ahead,” said Leo Fan, a founder of zero-knowledge proof generation and verification layer 1 Cysic.

“Bitcoin’s growing narrative as ‘digital gold’ and a hedge against macroeconomic instability is likely to attract more institutional capital, especially as traditional markets remain volatile.”

Source: COINTELEGRAPH