The Commodities Feed: Geopolitical Risks Build

ING

Economic

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Oil prices have been somewhat insulated by the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine. However, natural gas prices have been more sensitive to these developments, while gold, as one would expect, has benefitted from safe-haven demand.

Energy – Natural gas proves to be more sensitive to geopolitical risks

Oil prices edged lower yesterday despite growing geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine. Having fired a US made missile into Russia earlier in the week, there are reports that Ukraine has now fired British made missiles into Russia. For oil, the risk is if Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure, while the other risk is uncertainty over how Russia responds to these attacks. However, as mentioned earlier in the week, Iran’s pledge to stop stockpiling uranium does counter some of the geopolitical risk, with it potentially reducing some of the supply risks related to Iran ahead of President-elect Trump entering office.

EIA weekly data yesterday showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 545k barrels over the last week with stronger crude oil imports (+1.18m b/d WoW) almost offset by stronger crude exports (+938k b/d WoW). For refined products, gasoline stocks increased by 2.05m barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 114k barrels. The gasoline build came about despite refiners reducing utilisation rates by 1.2pp over the week. Lower refinery activity was more than offset by weaker implied demand. Gasoline demand fell by 964k b/d WoW.

European natural gas has been unable to escape the rising tension between Russia and Ukraine. TTF settled almost 2.5% higher yesterday on the back of this growing geopolitical risk, while the market is also keeping a close eye on Russian pipeline flows to Europe after Gazprom halted supplies to OMV. However, up until now Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine remain stable. Meanwhile, European gas storage has fallen below 90% and is also now just below the 5-year average of 91% for this time of year. The narrowing that we have seen between Asian spot LNG and TTF should mean that Europe starts to pull in more LNG as we move deeper into the winter months.

Investment funds remain bullish towards the European gas market with them increasing their net long by a little more than 47TWh over the last reporting week to almost 273TWh, which is a record high. With storage not as high as initially expected going into the winter and a number of supply risks, speculators continue to favour gas from the long side.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

FxPro

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Market Picture

The cryptocurrency market cap is up 0.3% in 24 hours to $ 3.09 trillion. This slight increase masks an impressive altcoin pullback that failed to cap the 1% rise in BTC. However, sentiment indicators remain in extreme greed territory. Solana is down 3% overnight and around 6% from Tuesday’s high. Litecoin has pulled back 14% from Saturday’s high and is a few steps away from $100.

Bitcoin climbed close to $94K on Tuesday night, updating all-time highs. Unlike last week’s attack, the new highs were not followed by stop orders and margin calls from shorts. Instead, they moved into the $100K-plus area.

Like Litecoin, Ethereum is becoming a boring story. The rally in early November stopped just short of an overbought level, with profit taking at 61.8% of the initial momentum—significantly deeper than Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Such an adherence to classic technical analysis may be convenient for traders, but it is hardly to the liking of enthusiasts, who have probably moved on to other altcoins.

News Background

In another recalculation, the difficulty of mining Bitcoin exceeded 102T for the first time in history. The average hash rate for the two-week calculation period rose to 755.3 EH/s.

According to JPMorgan, the hash price, a measure of Bitcoin mining profitability, rose 29% in the first half of November. The rally in BTC ahead of the hash rate increase and the increase in transaction fees as a percentage of block reward contributed to the significant improvement in mining economics.

MicroStrategy plans to issue a $1.75 billion five-year bond to be used for BTC acquisitions and general corporate purposes. The company’s reserves have reached 331,200 BTCs, on which it has spent ~$16.5 billion at an average purchase price of $49,874 per coin.

QCP Capital believes the ‘real altcoin season’ will begin after the bitcoin dominance index falls to 58% vs 59.4% now. Before that, by the end of the year, BTC could break through the psychologically important $100K mark.

According to the Financial Times, the Donald Trump-linked Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) is in the advanced stages of a deal to buy struggling platform Bakkt.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Forex

UK Inflation Challenge

The UK continues its battle with inflation, and more importantly services inflation which ticked up slightly from September with a print of 5% vs the prior month’s 4.9%. The increase in headline inflation might also be a concern now as the annual inflation rate rose to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September.

Markets were expecting an uptick in headline inflation to around 2.2% while the MoM inflation number came in at 0.6% above the estimated 0.5% as well. The concern however remains with the service inflation number which is keeping headline inflation elevated.

Looking more closely at the data and a lot of the stickiness in the October number comes from categories that the Bank considers less important or less likely to show lasting inflation. This would include things like rent, airfares and package holidays which could in part explain the uptick in services inflation.

A good example of this is when looking at the core services inflation which strips out the data of rent and airfare and we have an entirely different narrative. Given there is no single definition for this, however it has been aptly broken down by ING Think which showed the ‘core services number’ had actually dropped from 4.8% to 4.5% in October.

Source: ING Think

This does not change a thing for the BoE when it comes to the upcoming December policy meeting. I still expect a 25bs cut following the recently released GDP numbers from the UK. Growth is beginning to turn sour, much like the European Union. This is something the BoE would like to avoid and in my opinion may factor heavily at the December meeting.

Based on probabilities, market participants are now pricing in around an 85% chance of a hold at the December 19 meeting with a possible rate cut in February given a 50% chance. This should in theory lend some support to the GBP as the US is expected to cut in December and the Bank of Japan is likely to continue hiking rates in 2025. Will such a move and a GBP recovery come to fruition?

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD rose in the early part of the week but failed to hold onto any material gains. The weakness in the US Dollar Index did not yield any significant gains for the GBP and with the DXY looking at a recovery today, Cable may face further downside pressure.

At present the key level around the 1.2680 handle is proving a tough nut to crack with UK inflation data helping the GBP/USD to break above this level but failing to find acceptance. If a daily candle close above this handle occurs, bulls may be emboldened which could push cable higher.

A move above the 1.2680 handle may face resistance at 1.2750 and 1.28200 (which is where the 200-day MA rests). The next key hurdle for bulls will be the 1.3000 psychological level which may prove to be a hurdle too far.

Looking at the potential for a break to the downside and the most recent swing low at 1.2600 will be the first area of support before the 1.2500 and 1.2450 handles come into focus.

The driving force behind any move is likely to come from the US Dollar Index (DXY) and its performance in the coming days. Further US Dollar strength could facilitate a retest of the 1.2500 handle.

GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 20, 2024

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Support

1.2600

1.2500

1.2450

Resistance

1.2680

1.2750

1.2820

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY has been inching its way lower since topping out just shy of the psychological 200.00 handle. A pullback helped yesterday by renewed safe haven flow also helped GBP/JPY push further away from the 200.00 handle.

Looking at the technicals and we have some mixed signals. We have a death cross formation as the 100-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA hinting at downside momentum. The candlesticks on the other hand show a sharp rejection following the brief stint below the MAs yesterday with the daily candle finishing as a hammer candlestick hinting at further upside.

The mixed signals do not make it easier, however when combining this with the fundamentals, further upside seems more likely in the short-term. The question is will the 200.00 handle prove a step too far for bulls?

A move higher from current prices for GBP/JPY could face resistance at 198 and 199.30 respectively.

A move lower will first require a daily candlestick close below the two MAs resting around the 194.30-194.60 range. A break of this zone could push GBP/JPY toward the 192.50 and 190.00 handles respectively.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 20, 2024

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Support

194.30 (200-day MA)

192.50

190.00

Resistance

198.00

199.30

200.00

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex trading is a dynamic and fast-paced market where success hinges on the ability to anticipate price movements. While no one can predict market movements with absolute certainty, traders use various methods to make educated guesses about future price trends. This guide explores key techniques and strategies to help you predict forex movements more effectively.

Understanding the Forex Market

The forex market operates 24 hours a day, influenced by multiple factors ranging from global economic data to geopolitical events. Predicting movements requires a deep understanding of these influences and the tools traders use to interpret them.

1. Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis focuses on economic, social, and political factors that impact currency prices.

Key Tools for Fundamental Analysis:

Economic Indicators: Pay attention to reports like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation data. For instance, a rising inflation rate may prompt central banks to hike interest rates, boosting the currency's value.

Interest Rates: Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investments, increasing demand for a currency.

Geopolitical Events: Elections, trade agreements, and conflicts can cause significant market fluctuations.

Example: The release of a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payroll report often leads to a surge in the USD against other currencies.

2. Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves studying historical price data to predict future trends.

Popular Technical Tools:

Charts and Patterns: Look for patterns like head-and-shoulders, double tops, or trend lines to anticipate reversals or continuations.

Indicators: Commonly used indicators include:

Moving Averages: For identifying trend direction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): To gauge overbought or oversold conditions.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): For understanding momentum.

Support and Resistance Levels: These key price zones help determine where a currency might reverse or break out.

3. Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis evaluates how traders feel about a particular currency pair.

How to Measure Sentiment:

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Tracks the positioning of major players in the market.

News Headlines: Positive or negative sentiment around an economy can influence market trends.

Sentiment can often be a leading indicator, providing hints about potential reversals before they materialize.

4. News Trading

Major news events like central bank meetings, employment reports, or geopolitical developments can cause rapid price movements.

Tips for News Trading:

Economic Calendars: Use tools like Forex Factory to track upcoming events.

Volatility Awareness: News events often cause sharp and unpredictable movements, so use tight stop-loss orders.

5. Using Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms

Modern traders increasingly rely on AI and machine learning to analyze vast datasets and identify trading opportunities. Algorithms can detect subtle patterns in price movements that human traders might miss.

6. Combining Strategies for Maximum Accuracy

Successful traders often use a blend of these strategies:

Combine technical indicators with fundamental events for a more comprehensive view.Use sentiment analysis to validate or challenge predictions based on technical data.

Tips to Improve Prediction Accuracy

Stay Educated: Constantly update your knowledge on global markets.

Backtest Strategies: Test your methods on historical data before applying them in live trading.

Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.

Practice Patience: Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups.

Conclusion

Predicting forex movements requires a combination of tools, insights, and disciplined trading practices. While the market can be unpredictable, using fundamental analysis, technical indicators, sentiment analysis, and AI-based tools can significantly enhance your ability to anticipate trends. Consistency and a well-rounded approach are key to succeeding in the forex market.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Risk is an inevitable part of any personal, professional, or financial endeavor. While it cannot be entirely eliminated, it can be managed effectively to minimize potential downsides. Risk management ensures that you are prepared for uncertainties, protecting your resources and goals. This article outlines a practical 7-step guide to managing risk and maintaining control over unpredictable situations.

Step 1: Identify the Risks

The first step to managing risk is recognizing it. Risks can stem from various areas, including market fluctuations, operational mishaps, or unforeseen circumstances.

How to Identify Risks

Brainstorming: Gather your team or use personal reflection to list potential threats.

Historical Data: Analyze past projects or ventures to identify common issues.

Industry Analysis: Review risks inherent to your sector or activity.

Example: A financial trader may face risks from market volatility, while a business might encounter risks in supply chain disruptions.

Step 2: Assess the Risks

Once identified, assess each risk based on two factors: likelihood and impact.

Tools to Assess Risk

Risk Matrix: Plot risks on a matrix to visualize which are high, medium, or low priority.

Quantitative Analysis: Assign numerical probabilities to risks and potential losses.

Example: A high-probability, high-impact risk (e.g., a key supplier going bankrupt) should be prioritized over a low-probability, low-impact risk.

Step 3: Prioritize Risks

Not all risks are equally urgent. Focus your resources on those that could cause the most damage.

Criteria for Prioritization:

Critical Risks: High-impact events that are likely to occur.

Moderate Risks: Manageable risks with moderate impacts or low probabilities.

Low Risks: Risks that require minimal attention but should still be monitored.

Tip: Use the Pareto Principle—address the 20% of risks that could lead to 80% of the issues.

Step 4: Develop Risk Mitigation Strategies

Create plans to reduce the likelihood or impact of risks. These strategies may include preventive measures or contingency plans.

Mitigation Methods:

Avoidance: Eliminate the activity causing the risk.

Reduction: Implement measures to lower risk exposure.

Transfer: Use insurance or contracts to shift risk to a third party.

Acceptance: Recognize and prepare for risks that cannot be avoided.

Example: A company may reduce cybersecurity risks by investing in robust firewall protection and employee training.

Step 5: Implement Safeguards

Put your risk mitigation strategies into action. Ensure every plan is communicated clearly to all stakeholders involved.

Examples of Safeguards:

Financial Safeguards: Maintain emergency funds or set stop-loss orders in trading.

Operational Safeguards: Install safety protocols and train staff to follow them.

Tip: Use project management tools to track the progress and implementation of safeguards.

Step 6: Monitor and Review

Risks evolve, and so should your strategies. Regularly monitor your environment and adjust your plans as needed.

How to Monitor Effectively:

Key Risk Indicators (KRIs): Use metrics to signal changes in risk levels.

Regular Audits: Periodically review strategies and their effectiveness.

Feedback Loops: Collect input from stakeholders to improve processes.

Step 7: Plan for Recovery

Despite your best efforts, some risks may materialize. A recovery plan ensures minimal disruption and swift resolution.

Elements of a Recovery Plan:

Crisis Communication: Keep all stakeholders informed during a risk event.

Contingency Funds: Reserve resources to manage unexpected costs.

Resilience Measures: Build adaptability into your processes to bounce back quickly.

Example: Companies often establish disaster recovery plans to restore operations after a natural disaster.

Conclusion

Risk management is a continuous process that protects your goals and ensures resilience against uncertainties. By following these seven steps—identifying, assessing, prioritizing, mitigating, implementing, monitoring, and planning for recovery—you can minimize risks and position yourself for sustained success.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Drawdown is a critical concept in forex trading, directly linked to the performance and risk management of a trading account. Understanding drawdown helps traders evaluate their risk tolerance and adapt strategies for long-term success. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a beginner, mastering the nuances of drawdown can mean the difference between sustained profits and financial setbacks.

What is Drawdown?

Drawdown in forex trading refers to the reduction in the capital of a trading account, measured as the difference between the account's highest point (peak) and its subsequent lowest point (trough). It is typically expressed as a percentage of the peak balance.

Types of Drawdown:

Absolute Drawdown: The difference between the initial account balance and the lowest point reached.

Example: Starting with $10,000, if your account drops to $9,000, the absolute drawdown is $1,000.

Relative Drawdown: A percentage that shows the account's maximum loss compared to its peak balance.

Example: If your account peaks at $20,000 and drops to $15,000, the relative drawdown is 25%.

Maximum Drawdown: The largest observed drop from a peak to a trough during the account's lifetime.

Significance: Used as a benchmark for evaluating a trader’s risk tolerance and strategy robustness.

Why is Drawdown Important in Forex?

Drawdown highlights the risk exposure and recovery requirements for a trading account. It serves as a key metric for evaluating trading performance and psychological resilience.

Impacts of Drawdown:

Capital Management: Excessive drawdowns can deplete account balances, reducing trading opportunities.

Psychological Pressure: Large drawdowns can cause emotional stress, leading to impulsive decisions or abandoning strategies.

Recovery Challenge: Higher drawdowns require exponential gains for recovery.

For instance: A 10% drawdown requires an 11.1% gain to recover.

A 50% drawdown demands a 100% gain.

Key Insight: Limiting drawdowns is essential to maintaining consistent trading momentum.

How to Manage Drawdown in Forex Trading

Managing drawdowns involves combining robust risk management techniques with disciplined trading.

1. Use Proper Position Sizing:

Trade only with an amount that aligns with your risk tolerance. Typically, traders risk 1-2% of their account per trade.

2. Apply Stop-Loss Orders:

Set stop-loss levels to cap potential losses and safeguard against excessive drawdowns.

3. Diversify Your Trades:

Avoid over-concentration by spreading your investments across different currency pairs or trading strategies.

4. Monitor Risk-to-Reward Ratios:

Aim for trades with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, such as 1:2 or higher. This ensures potential gains outweigh possible losses.

5. Limit Leverage Usage:

While leverage amplifies gains, it also magnifies losses. Use it cautiously to avoid significant drawdowns.

6. Review and Adjust Strategies:

Regularly assess your trading approach to identify weaknesses and adjust for market conditions.

Recovering from Drawdowns

While minimizing drawdowns is ideal, recovery is equally important.

Steps for Recovery:

Pause Trading:

Analyze the reasons for the drawdown without rushing into new trades.

Reassess Your Strategy:

Identify and rectify flaws in your trading plan.

Reduce Position Sizes:

Trade smaller volumes to rebuild confidence and account balance.

Focus on Consistency:

Prioritize steady gains over risky, high-return trades.

Pro Tip: Recovery is a gradual process; patience is key to avoiding compounding losses.

Examples of Drawdown Scenarios

Scenario 1: Conservative Trader

Peak Balance: $10,000Drawdown: 5% ($500)

Recovery Required: 5.3%

Scenario 2: Aggressive Trader

Peak Balance: $10,000Drawdown: 50% ($5,000)

Recovery Required: 100%

Conservative strategies often outperform aggressive ones in sustaining long-term profitability.

Conclusion

Drawdown is more than just a financial metric—it is a reflection of trading discipline and risk management capabilities. By understanding, managing, and recovering from drawdowns, traders can safeguard their capital and build a sustainable trading career. Whether you are trading forex as a hobby or a profession, keeping drawdowns under control is paramount to achieving long-term success.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Businesses are bracing for the economic impact of a second Trump presidency, which, if his campaign promises are to be believed, will mean tariffs across nearly all imports to the US, especially those from China.

But amid the gloom over the spectre of a renewed global trade war, some manufacturers may be looking to those who already have a playbook on dealing with aggressive US levies, such as China’s solar companies.

China all but owns the global solar market. Its share in every stage of the solar panel manufacturing chain exceeds 80%, according to the International Energy Agency. Last year it exported a record high of 227 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels – more than the entire installed solar capacity of the United States.

But virtually none of those panels were destined for the US. Less than 1% of the 54 GW of solar panels the US imported last year came from China.

More than a decade of US duties on Chinese solar cells and panels – which are expected to be ramped up further by Trump – have all but eliminated Chinese solar equipment from the US.

This has spurred some Chinese companies to rapidly shift and expand their supply chains overseas in what US government agencies allege is an attempt to dodge US levies – an alleged approach that may be setting an example for other manufacturers.

Because although less than 1% of the US’s solar imports come from China, more than 80% of them come from four countries in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Last year, the US Commerce Department concluded that certain Chinese photovoltaic (PV) companies had been re-routing their supply chains through those countries in order to avoid US tariffs.

China’s major PV technology companies have been opening factories in south-east Asia since at least 2016. That year, the world’s third-largest solar manufacturer, Longi, expanded to Malaysia with its first overseas production base, and the launch of a Thai subsidiary. It also has a facility in Vietnam, and this year began construction of another Malaysian project and a joint-venture factory in the US. “The company’s shipment capabilities in the US market are expected to be enhanced,” it said in its 2023 annual report.

In 2022, Longi denied findings by the US Department of Commerce that a Vietnam subsidiary, Vina Solar, was among a number of Chinese companies circumventing tariffs by finishing products in south-east Asia, and said it was obeying US law.

But decision-makers in Washington see the expansions into south-east Asia very specifically as “an attempt to circumvent antidumping and countervailing duties”, said Cory Combs, associate director at Trivium China, a research company.

Longi denied the commerce department’s findings in 2022, and in its interim annual report this year said the “trade barriers” imposed on PV producers had “increased uncertainty” for companies, appearing to suggest that the global expansions were aimed at diversifying supply chains.

Last month, the commerce department announced new preliminary duties on several Chinese solar manufacturers that were exporting from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The decision follows a complaint from US solar panel companies that alleged Chinese companies were using their factories in those four countries to flood the US market with panels priced below their cost of production.

Longi was not among the solar manufacturers on the list, and it is not clear if the list includes one of its subsidiaries. Longi did not respond to repeated requests for clarification or comment.

Various US tariffs and antidumping duties have since been levied on the industry in the region at either country or company level, or in some cases both, and eyes are on the movements of Chinese industries.

Speaking generally, tariffs “are a bit like whack-a-mole”, said Marius Mordal Bakke, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, a business intelligence company. As soon as import duties are targeted at one country, companies will up sticks and move to another. Rerouting supply chains costs money, “but as long as you can sell your product for three to four times as much in the US market, then it’s probably likely worth it.”

Next stop: the Middle East

The game of whack-a-mole now seems to be spreading to other parts of south-east Asia, such as Laos and Indonesia. In the first eight months of this year, US imports of solar goods from Indonesia reportedly nearly doubled to $246m, while shipments from Laos have also been surging.

The industry is also moving to the Middle East, said Combs.

“As south-east Asia gets hit harder and harder by these tariffs a lot of Chinese investors are moving into the [Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC], particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Oman. Does this happen quickly enough that the GCC becomes the next south-east Asia and then also gets hit with anti dumping and all that stuff? That’s already where the conversation is in DC.”

Chinese companies are well aware of the need to tariff-proof their businesses, and there are signs of plans being made to get ahead of Trump’s promised tariffs, on China and elsewhere.

Tongwei, China’s biggest solar company, said in its annual report that many Chinese photovoltaic companies have “started exploring new avenues for growth, including establishing manufacturing facilities overseas”, citing the US, the Middle East and Vietnam as examples, without elaborating on the company’s own plans.

The US solar market is relatively small. In 2023, it accounted for less than 10% of the solar panel global market, according to analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Given over 93% of global production capacity for polysillicon – the raw material to make solar panels – is in China, it will be nearly impossible for the US solar industry to fully extricate itself from Chinese companies.

Indeed, the biggest risk to the Chinese solar industry from the incoming Trump administration may not be tariffs, but politics. “The solar industry in China has positioned itself to supply the solar equipment needed for a rapid global energy transition,” Myllyvirta said. “And it’s quite clear that the Trump administration is going to try and slow down that transition”.

Source: TheGuardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

The Commodities Feed: Geopolitical Risks Build

Energy – Natural gas proves to be more sensitive to geopolitical risks

Crypto Market Loses Some Spark

Market Picture

News Background

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Price Action Ideas Post UK Inflation Release

UK Inflation Challenge

Source: ING Think

Technical Analysis

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

GBP/JPY

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Source: ACTIONFOREX

How to Predict Forex Movements: A Trader's Guide to Market Insights

Understanding the Forex Market

1. Fundamental Analysis

Key Tools for Fundamental Analysis:

2. Technical Analysis

Popular Technical Tools:

3. Sentiment Analysis

How to Measure Sentiment:

4. News Trading

Tips for News Trading:

5. Using Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms

6. Combining Strategies for Maximum Accuracy

Tips to Improve Prediction Accuracy

Conclusion

Master Risk Management: 7 Steps to Protect Your Success

Step 1: Identify the Risks

How to Identify Risks

Step 2: Assess the Risks

Tools to Assess Risk

Step 3: Prioritize Risks

Criteria for Prioritization:

Step 4: Develop Risk Mitigation Strategies

Mitigation Methods:

Step 5: Implement Safeguards

Examples of Safeguards:

Step 6: Monitor and Review

How to Monitor Effectively:

Step 7: Plan for Recovery

Elements of a Recovery Plan:

Conclusion

Understanding Drawdown in Forex Trading: What You Need to Know

What is Drawdown?

Types of Drawdown:

Why is Drawdown Important in Forex?

Impacts of Drawdown:

How to Manage Drawdown in Forex Trading

1. Use Proper Position Sizing:

2. Apply Stop-Loss Orders:

3. Diversify Your Trades:

4. Monitor Risk-to-Reward Ratios:

5. Limit Leverage Usage:

6. Review and Adjust Strategies:

Recovering from Drawdowns

Steps for Recovery:

Examples of Drawdown Scenarios

Scenario 1: Conservative Trader

Scenario 2: Aggressive Trader

Conclusion

Trump Tariffs Are Coming, But Some Chinese Companies May Already Know How to Avoid Them