The Commodities Feed: Markets Await Election Outcome

ING

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices have held relatively steady as the market awaits the outcome of the US election.

Energy – Middle distillate cracks continue to firm

Oil prices have held relatively steady as markets await the outcome of the US election, in what is expected to be a very close race. ICE Brent settled above $75/bbl yesterday with a weaker USD likely supporting the market. Oil will likely be vulnerable to broader moves in markets as we get more clarity on how the US election plays out. For oil fundamentals, a Trump victory could provide some short-term upside with the risk of stricter sanction enforcement against Iran. However, in the medium to longer term, a Trump victory could be more bearish for oil due to trade and foreign policy. Meanwhile, a Harris victory would likely keep the status quo.

In addition to a weaker USD, a decision by OPEC+ members to delay their gradual increase in supply by one month will also support prices, along with the potential for supply disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical Storm Rafael.

In refined products, middle distillates continue to strengthen. The ICE gasoil crack is trading at its strongest level since early September. The strength seen in middle distillates has been driven by the jet fuel market, evident in the widening of the jet regrade, which is fairly common as we move into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Metals – Complex rises on Chinese stimulus hopes

Copper rose for a third straight session with other industrial metals also edging higher yesterday as hopes for more stimulus measures from China supported the complex. Beijing is expected to unveil more support measures this week at the National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee meeting. In the latest comments, China’s Premier, Li Qiang, said that the government has the ability to drive sustained economic improvement and has ample space for fiscal and monetary policy. More fiscal stimulus measures are likely to revive investor sentiment and boost metals prices. Li Qiang also reaffirmed that China would reach its economic growth target of around 5% for the year.

The latest LME COTR report shows that investors decreased their net bullish position in zinc by 3,515 lots to 35,553 lots (the lowest since the week ending 4 October 2024). A similar move was seen in aluminium, with speculators decreasing their net bullish bets by 2,850 lots, after reporting gains for two consecutive weeks, to 124,473 lots over the last reporting week. In contrast, money managers increased net bullish bets in copper by 7,577 lots after reporting declines for three consecutive weeks to 74,752 lots as of last Friday.

Agriculture – ISMA maintains 2024/25 sugar output estimates

The first advance estimates from the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) show that gross sugar production in India remains unchanged from its preliminary projections of 33.3mt for 2024/25, compared to output of 34.1mt in 2023/24. The association added that sufficient availability of sugar will sustain the ethanol blending program, while also increasing the chances of exports. There are also suggestions that the government might consider increasing the minimum sale price of sugar in the coming days.

Recent data from the European Commission shows that EU soft-wheat exports for the 2024/25 season dropped to 7.8mt as of 3 November, down 32% compared to 11.3mt reported in a similar period a year ago. Weaker output has weighed on exports.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cohen

Economic

Wall Street Indexes rose in the early hours of the US session helped by a surprise US services activity print. Market participants continue to wait with bated breath on the outcome of the US Presidential election.

The ISM Services PMI in the US unexpectedly jumped to 56 in October 2024, the highest since August 2022, from 54.9 in September and beating forecasts of 53.8. The strong gain was mostly driven by a rebound in employment.

Concerns about political uncertainty grew compared to the previous month. Issues from hurricanes and labor problems at ports were often mentioned, but the impact of the longshoremen’s strike was less severe than expected because it was short-lived, according to Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

The ISM data gave Wall Street Indexes a boost with the S&P 500 seeing all 11 sectors in the green with Industrials .SPLRCI, Consumer Discretionary .SPLRCD and Information Technology .SPLRCT adding more than 1.3%.

On the earnings front, Palantir’s (PLTR.N) stock jumped 23% to a new high after the company increased its yearly revenue prediction for the third time. As the election has drawn closer Trump media continues its rally, with the group surging 14.4%. Big tech stocks also gained on the day, with Tesla increasing by 4% and Nvidia rising by 3.1%.

Trump or Harris: Congressional Elections Results also Key

As the election race heats up the latest polls are showing a tight race. There is growing attention to the congressional elections as well and this may be more important for market participants. The data suggests that US stocks perform better under a unified government as that would allow the President to make significant policy changes. A divided congress can at times be a hurdle for the incoming President especially with the opposing view on the economy and at times foreign policy.

Trump or Harris? Why Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Might Not Care Who Wins_1

Volatility has thus far been low this week as market participants weigh the various risks still ahead this week. After the elections we also have the Federal Reserve decision, the BoE and the University of Michigan sentiment preliminary numbers will be released on Friday.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 broke below the ascending channel but failed to push lower ahead of the election. Given the caution on display by market participants it is no surprise that US indexes have failed to push lower after last week’s selloff.

The Nasdaq has broken back above the lows of the ascending channel, however there is a chance that the US election could still be a shot in the arm for a deeper pullback.

Given the excellent US stock market performance this year, I think markets may be oblivious to whoever wins the election. Rather we could just get a spike in volatility and liquidity before markets continue their trend.

In the lead up to the election, many US voters were of the opinion that former President Trump is more pro free markets and better for the economy, however given the performance under the Biden administration markets might remain optimistic with a Harris victory. This makes the potential reaction by markets even more intriguing.

Either way, immediate resistance rests at 20484 and 20675 before the all-time highs around 20790 come into focus.

Conversely, a break below last week’s low at 19918 brings the possibility of a retest of the 100-day MA which rests at 19671. A break below this level will lead to a third touch of the ascending trendline which rests just below the 100-day MA.

Trump or Harris? Why Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Might Not Care Who Wins_2

Support

19918;19750;19536.

Resistance

20484;20675 (all-time highs);20790.

Source: MarketPulse

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Economic

Political

After much back-and-forth, a 25-bps cut is a done deal

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver its second rate cut of this easing cycle on Thursday, with the size of the reduction no longer in question following a string of upbeat economic indicators out of the US. A 25-basis-point cut is more than 98% priced, as investors have shifted their expectations away from large 50-bps reductions to the possibility of a pause at one of the upcoming meetings.

The receding expectations of aggressive easing have spurred a more than 4% rally in the US dollar, as measured by its index against a basket of six major currencies. However, Fed rate cut bets have not been the only factor pushing up the dollar.

Trump energizes dollar bulls

Increasing odds of Donald Trump winning the presidential race on November 5 have also contributed to the greenback’s incredible bullish run during October as his policies are seen to be inflationary. The clash with the timing of the elections is why the Fed meeting is a day later than usual. However, even if the outcome of the election is known by the time FOMC members cast their own votes, it’s unlikely to influence the decision, at least not before the next president has taken office.

Hence, policymakers will be focusing on how the labour market and inflation picture have evolved since the last meeting. All indications are that the American economy remains in good shape with few signs of a severe downturn or even a slowdown. GDP grew by an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q3 and growth in the current quarter is running at 2.3% according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate.

Striking a balance

For the Fed, its primary concern has been the signs of cracks in the jobs market. July’s soft payrolls numbers that swayed the Fed towards cutting rates by 50 bps in September appeared to be a temporary weakness until the October report came along. However, the October readings were heavily affected by the impact of the hurricanes as well as the strike at aerospace giant, Boeing. More importantly, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, having jumped to 4.3% in July.

Overall, though, jobs growth definitely appears to be slowing, and the Fed may need to move faster over the course of next year. But for now, policymakers have to strike a balance with still persistent price pressures. The Fed’s favourite inflation metric – the core PCE price index – was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in September, defying forecasts for a small drop. Other price gauges also support the case for caution; the ISM manufacturing prices paid index jumped from 48.3 to 54.8 in October.

Powell’s tone and election results will be crucial

All this suggests the Fed will stick to its latest messaging of gradual rate cuts going forward but Chair Jerome Powell will probably keep the door open to 50-bps moves. With no updated dot plot or economic projections at the November meeting, investors will be scrutinizing Powell’s every word in his press briefing, hoping to get some fresh hints from his views on the latest data and the state of the economy.

Unless there are any surprises, dovish or hawkish, the US dollar will possibly be driven more by the election headlines. If the early results out on Wednesday point to a Trump victory, both the dollar and Wall Street are likely to gain. But if Kamala Harris gets an early lead, the dollar would be susceptible to a selloff, while US equities will be choppy at the very least even if there is no clear reaction.

Is the dollar set for a roller-coaster ride?

For the dollar index, another wave upwards would likely face friction at the psychological 105.00 and 106.00 levels. But in the most bearish scenario, the October upleg could be entirely reversed, with supports probably seen at 103.00 and the 50-day moving average around 102.28.

However, if it appears that it could be days or weeks before a decisive winner can be declared, market volatility is sure to spike.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) surged as much as 25% in after-hours trading on Tuesday as investors brace for more wild swings with early voting results underway. Shares have since retreated, rising a more modest 10%.

Trump has clinched Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, according to the Associated Press, while Harris has claimed Vermont.

The stock had a wild session during market hours after trading was halted several times due to volatility, with shares quickly erasing 15% gains and reversing Monday's double-digit percentage rise to kick off the week.

Shares were still able to somewhat recover from steeper losses, although the stock still closed down a little over 1%.

Last week, shares suffered their largest percentage decline and closed down around 20% to end the five-day period on Friday, which shaved off around $4 billion from the company's market cap. The stock has still more than doubled from its September lows.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_1

The latest price action comes as investors await the results of the presidential election between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Volatility in the stock is expected to continue. One investor has warned that if Trump loses the election, shares of DJT could plunge to $0.

"It's a binary bet on the election," Matthew Tuttle, CEO of investment fund Tuttle Capital Management, recently told Yahoo Finance's Catalysts.

Tuttle, who currently owns put options on the stock, said the trajectory of shares hinges on "a buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading strategy.

"I would imagine that the day after him winning, you'd see this come down," he surmised. "If he loses, I think it goes to zero."

Interactive Brokers' chief strategist Steve Sosnick said DJT has taken on a meme-stock "life of its own."

"It was volatile on the way up, and when a stock is that volatile in one direction, it has a tendency to be that volatile in the other direction," he said on a call with Yahoo Finance last week.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_2

Prior to the recent volatility, shares in the company — the home of the Republican nominee's social media platform, Truth Social — had been steadily rising in recent weeks as both domestic and overseas betting markets shifted in favor of a Trump victory.

Prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all showed Trump's presidential chances ahead of those of Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris. That lead, however, narrowed significantly over the weekend as new polling showed Harris surpassing Trump in Iowa, which has historically voted Republican.

And as betting markets tighten, national polls show both candidates in a virtually deadlocked race. Polls in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are likely to decide the fate of the election, also show razor-thin margins.

In September, the stock traded at its lowest level since the company's debut following the expiration of its highly publicized lockup period. Shares had also been under pressure, as previous polling in September saw Harris with a bigger lead over the former president.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_3

Trump founded Truth Social after he was kicked off major social media apps like Facebook (META) and Twitter, now X, following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. Trump has since been reinstated on those platforms. He officially returned to posting on X in mid-August after about a year's hiatus.

As Truth Social attempts to take on social media incumbents, the fundamentals of the company have long been in question.

On Tuesday, DJT dropped third quarter results after the market close that revealed a net loss of $19.25 million for the quarter ending Sept. 30. This was narrower than the $26.03 million the company reported in the year-ago period.

DJT also reported revenue of $1.01 million, a slight year-over-year drop compared to the $1.07 million it reported in the third quarter of 2023. Over the past nine months ending Sept. 30, revenue has fallen 23% from the prior-year period.

Last month, the company revealed that its COO had stepped down in September.

Trump maintains a roughly 60% interest in DJT. At current levels of around $35 a share, Trump Media boasts a market cap of about $6.8 billion, giving the former president a stake worth around $4.1 billion.

Source: yahoo finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

A historic and at times tumultuous presidential campaign will come to a close on Nov. 5. But the outcome may not be known on election night.

A historic election that saw an incumbent president drop his campaign, a woman rise to the top of the Democratic ticket and multiple assassination attempts against the Republican candidate will come to an end on Nov. 5.

But the outcome may not be known on election night.

It took four days for the race to be projected for President Joe Biden in 2020 as mail-in voting expansions, and other changes made to help Americans participate during a global pandemic, delayed counting in several key states.

"It can take a few days and sometimes more," said Barry Burden, the director of the Elections Research Center at University of Wisconsin-Madison.

An especially tight race, as expected this year, can make it even more difficult to project a winner in the hours after polls close, experts told ABC News. Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck heading into Election Day.

Each state has its own rules to administer elections, including different ways to process mail ballots and deadlines for curing signatures or other issues, which means some may take longer than others to tabulate results.

538 has compiled a complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and when to expect results in every state.

"There are a variety of things that have to be done because there are these safeguards in place to try and minimize the possibility of fraud," said Mitchell Brown, a professor of political science at Auburn University. "And so in states that have those rules, it takes a while in order to process all the ballots."

Trump, in 2020, prematurely declared victory before all votes were counted. Misinformation spread online about the integrity of the election as the country awaited a final result and Trump or his allies later challenged the outcome by baselessly claiming widespread fraud, particularly with mail ballots.

"Not knowing the result on election night is not an indication of election malfeasance ever," Brown emphasized.

All eyes will be on the seven swing states that will likely determine whether Harris or Trump win the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In two of those states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- mail or absentee ballots cannot even begin to be processed until the morning of Election Day. That includes opening envelopes, verifying voter information and preparing them to be scanned before they can be counted, which can lead to delays.

In 2020, Wisconsin wasn't projected for either candidate until the day after Election Day and Pennsylvania was called the Saturday after Election Day.

In other key battleground states, mail or absentee ballots may be processed but cannot be counted until Election Day, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. That includes Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina.

In Arizona, a state that votes heavily by mail, mail or absentee ballots received before Election Day can be processed and counted upon receipt. But a sizable portion of those ballots get placed in drop boxes on Election Day, and those results may not be collected or counted until polls close, which may hold up a clear result depending on how close the race is.

In Nevada, another state where the presidential race wasn't projected until the Saturday after Election Day in 2020, some changes were made to help speed up vote counting -- including allowing mail or absentee ballots to start being counted 15 days before Election Day.

"It's really a product of the laws and depending where the Electoral College spotlight is in any given year, it can mean a faster count or a slower one," Burden said.

While news organizations often project a winner based on analysis of the vote count as its reported, results are not official until states certify them. States have their own certification deadlines, some of which extend into December, according to the Election Assistance Commission.

Recounts and legal challenges, especially litigation related to certification, could arise between a race being projected by media networks and the results being certified.

On Dec. 17, electors will meet in the states to vote for president and vice president.

Election officials in some key states are already warning that results may not come in on election night, and that it is normal.

"We will always prioritize accuracy and security over efficiency," Michigan's Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recently said on CBS, estimating her state will be able to have a result by end of day on Nov. 6. "Understanding how much people will want those results, we're still going to make sure the process is secure and accurate before we put anything out to the public."

"We want to make sure we have an accurate count, and like we did in 2020, have a free and fair, safe and secure election," said Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on ABC's "This Week."

Source:ABC News

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Justin

Political

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.

Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs. Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the closest presidential election in over a century.

The presidency

Let’s start with the race everyone is watching. According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails.

Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically “ahead.”

More than any other factor, our forecast is so close because the polls are so close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2.1 percentage points or fewer in all seven swing states. Trump currently leads by 2.1 points in Arizona, 0.9 points in North Carolina, 0.8 points in Georgia and 0.3 points in Nevada. Harris is up by 1.0 point in Wisconsin and in Michigan. And in Pennsylvania (the state that’s most likely to decide the outcome of the election), Harris has a tiny 0.2-point edge.

But it is worth stressing that the polls will not be exactly correct. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans.

In other words, you should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very narrow advantages for the leader in each key state, that means there’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the election.

And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout. If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with 319 Electoral College votes

Meanwhile, Trump would win with 312 electoral votes if the polls underestimate him by the same amount.

Hopefully, you can see just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it.

The House of Representatives

In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans managed to win back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But they dramatically underperformed historical expectations, especially in seats where their candidates denied the results of the 2020 election. They ended up winning just 222 seats — barely enough to wield a functional majority (and sometimes it wasn’t even that functional).

According to 538’s final House forecast, the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024. We give them a 49-in-100 chance of controlling the House, while Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of taking control. But whichever party wins a majority may find it so narrow as to be ungovernable: The median outcome in our forecast is that Democrats win just a one-seat majority.

Yet there is considerable uncertainty here, too. Because House polls are subject to a lot of error, and the other indicators that our House uses can be very noisy, our model thinks there is about a 1-in-2 chance that one party wins a double-digit majority.

To win a double-digit majority, Democrats would have to win all of the seats our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic” and “Toss-up” and secure two out of the 23 seats we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.” Conversely, Republicans would have to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, all the “Toss-ups,” and four seats where Democrats are currently favored. Such performances sound ambitious, but it’s common for parties to sweep most or all of the toss-ups when they beat expectations.

One final point on where to expect surprises. We already know that we aren’t going to pick the “right” winners in each seat. That’s by design. Our goal isn’t to pick winners; it’s to correctly estimate probabilities. And for us to succeed in that regard, candidates with a 75-in-100 chance of winning need to win 75 times out of 100 — and lose 25 times out of 100. Our final forecast rates 66 seats as “Toss-up,” “Lean” or “Likely.” Based on how well our model would have predicted similar races in past elections, we expect 14 of those districts to go to the party that’s not favored to win. What’s more, we expect three upsets in districts rated as “Solid” for either party — which means they have at least a 98-in-100 chance of winning.

The Senate

And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. Our model gives Republicans a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate).**

Republicans’ strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a 41-in-100 chance of beating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, just a 1-in-1,000 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat.

If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95 percent of the time, they will need to pick up another seat elsewhere in order to keep their majority. According to our forecast, their best chances of doing so are in Florida or Texas, but they only have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That’s not nothing; it’s about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a 1. But it’s still a fairly uphill climb for Democrats.

Our final word

This is a good time to remind people that our forecasts are not crystal balls. And especially in a year with races this close, they cannot provide more certainty than the data available to us. The point of creating election forecasting models, as I wrote last week, isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all doubt about what could happen. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are.

In the presidential and House elections, if the polls are off a historically normal amount, either party could come out ahead. In the Senate, the polls would need to be off by more than they were in 2020 in at least one state. That is possible, but given the other information available to us about the seats up for grabs, we think it’s unlikely Democrats will hold the chamber.

Footnotes

*Technically, Harris has a 50.33 percent chance to win and Trump has a 49.45 percent chance to win, and there is a 0.22 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. This is why the rounded numbers appear not to add up to 100 percent.

**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party.

Source:ABC News

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Justin

Political

The Republican Party is determined not to be outmanned in the courts regarding the 2024 elections, with GOP leaders leaning heavily on a new, litigation-focused "election integrity" effort launched earlier this year in a bid to avoid many of the same pitfalls as 2020.

The two-pronged effort seeks to improve the GOP ground game across the country, both by recruiting and training poll observers and by adding more transparency to the voting process, senior Republican Party officials told Fox News Digital in an interview.

To date, they have recruited some 230,000 volunteers across the country, RNC officials said, including 5,000 lawyers concentrated primarily in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On the eve of Election Day, it is the lawyers whose talents could be especially useful in the days and weeks to come.

That is because the second half of the election integrity push focuses on litigation. Some of the lawsuits are aimed at ensuring "poll worker parity" and access for Republican observers at many election sites across the country, senior party officials told Fox News Digital.

However, they have also filed dozens of lawsuits aimed at cracking down on voter identification laws, tightening citizenship verification standards and adding new requirements for mail-in ballots and provisional ballots accepted by various states.

The Republican Party has been especially aggressive in filing these pre-election lawsuits, which officials describe as helping "set the rules of the road in key swing states."

As of this writing, party officials said they have filed more than 130 lawsuits—the vast majority of the roughly 200 election-related lawsuits in the 2024 election.

While the flurry of GOP-led lawsuits have dominated headlines in the final race to Election Day—primarily in the seven swing states considered to hold outsize importance in determining the next president— Republican Party officials pointed to courtroom victories won as early as this summer as some of their biggest achievements.

One example was the RNC's successful lawsuit against the city of Detroit in August.

The RNC had sued to add more Republican election inspectors to the city’s 300-plus voting precincts, citing a "7.5-to-one" ratio of Democrat inspectors to Republican inspectors. Republicans successfully argued that the disparity ran afoul of state law, which requires "an equal number, as nearly as possible" of election officials from both major political parties. More Republican observers were added as a result.

A more recent win occurred last week in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where a judge sided with the GOP's request to extend early voting deadlines from Tuesday, Nov. 5, to Friday, Nov. 8.

Republican officials have touted success in achieving more transparency in state elections.

"We really view this as making America's elections run in a transparent and trustworthy way. And that's a net positive for everyone in this country, regardless of Republican or Democrat [party affiliation]," a senior RNC official told Fox News Digital in an interview.

Still, on the eve of Election Day, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will have accomplished their stated goal of establishing more trust in U.S. elections.

That is because the concept of "election security" not only requires certain safeguards to be placed around the voter registration and ballot-casting process, but also that the voters themselves then trust the results of the vote as legitimate.

A fresh AP-NORC poll found that Democrats are far more likely than their Republican counterparts to express confidence in the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

The poll found that while 71% of registered Democratic voters said they have "a great deal" of confidence in the national election outcome, just one-third of their Republican counterparts, or 24%, reported the same.

Looking ahead

While some of these lawsuits could be used by the RNC as a pretext to challenge the outcome of certain states after Election Day, legal experts said it is unclear what impact any of these legal challenges could have in contesting the results — even if the outcome in certain states is just as close as expected in a neck-and-neck election.

Courts are highly disinclined to take up cases after Election Day, Andrew McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York, told Fox News in an interview.

"We want to have the game be fair, in the sense that there's bright lines way before you ever get to Election Day," McCarthy said. "So everybody has their eyes open about what the rules are."

"It's really hard to get a court to involve itself after an election has taken place and where they're in a position of potentially changing the outcome of the election," he added.

Source:Fox News

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The Commodities Feed: Markets Await Election Outcome

Energy – Middle distillate cracks continue to firm

Metals – Complex rises on Chinese stimulus hopes

Agriculture – ISMA maintains 2024/25 sugar output estimates

Trump or Harris? Why Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Might Not Care Who Wins

Trump or Harris: Congressional Elections Results also Key

Technical Analysis

Source: MarketPulse

Fed Set To Cut Rates Under The Shadow Of Us Elections

After much back-and-forth, a 25-bps cut is a done deal

Trump energizes dollar bulls

Striking a balance

Powell’s tone and election results will be crucial

Is the dollar set for a roller-coaster ride?

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in

Source: yahoo finance

Why the Winner of the 2024 Presidential Race Might not be Projected on Election Night

Source:ABC News

538's Final Forecasts for the 2024 Election

The presidency

The House of Representatives

The Senate

Our final word

Footnotes

Source:ABC News

GOP Prepared for Pivotal Court Battles that Could Decide 2024 Election

Looking ahead

Source:Fox News

Risk Disclosure