Trump In The Lead – House Control Still Up In The Air

Economic

Summary:

In focus today Today, the US election dominates the spotlight as investors eagerly anticipate the final outcomes. At the time of

In focus today

Today, the US election dominates the spotlight as investors eagerly anticipate the final outcomes. At the time of writing, Trump has secured a victory in North Carolina and Georgia, with attention fixed on the remaining five swing states. Republicans have been called majority winners in Senate, and the sweep now largely depends on the House elections.

This morning, we are hosting two conference calls where we present our instant views on the election results and implications for markets and the economy: Conference call on the implications of the US election for Global and Scandi markets at 8:40 – 9:10 CET and US elections morning call – Macro need-to-knows at 9:15 – 9:30 CET.

In the euro area, the final PMIs for October are released. Additionally in Germany, we will receive data on factory orders for September, providing a hint of what the industrial production data will show on Thursday.

In Sweden, the monthly Swedish inflation expectations survey is published. We do not expect any surprises, but rather confirmation that the more important 5-year horizon remains stable around 2%.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, swing state North Carolina and Georgia were called for Trump, boosting his electoral vote tally to 246. Onlookers are closely watching, as the results from the remaining six swing states continue to unfold. At the time of writing, initial tallies show Trump leading in all five, with Harris closely trailing.

Current sentiment (stronger USD, higher yields) is likely to extend into European morning after Trump is expected to win Georgia and North Carolina with larger than anticipated margins. He is also in the lead in Pennsylvania, which is extremely important for both candidates, but finalizing the state’s count might take until Wednesday afternoon (European time). Harris still has a path to victory, but she needs to have performed better-than-expected in the election day voting in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Senate is likely to flip to Republican majority (as expected), but House race remains very uncertain as none of the most competitive seats have been called.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin soared to a new record high just shy of the USD 75,000 mark as Trump draws ahead in the US presidential election. Crypto investors anticipate less regulation and potentially public financial backing in the event of a Trump win.

What happened yesterday

In the US, the presidential election began as voters amassed at the polls to cast their votes in the race split 50-50 between Trump and Harris. The battleground states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most likely tipping points of the election. We think a Republican sweep would provide support for broad USD and lift yields at both short and long ends of the USD curve on the back of rising inflation and debt sustainability concerns. A Harris win and/or a divided Congress could have the opposite effect if fiscal policy stance remains closer to status quo. Trump could hike tariffs even as a ‘lame duck’, complicating the outlook especially for USD FX.

Coinciding with the election, US stocks climbed as the ISM report on US non-manufacturing sector showed PMI 56.9 in October (cons: 53.8, prior: 54.9). The headline index was driven higher by the employment index recovering sharply, while prices and new orders weakened. Overall, both PMIs and ISM showed gradually moderating business activity and inflation in services sector in October, which should allow the Fed to continue cutting rates a gradual pace over coming meetings.

Equities: US futures are higher, led by small caps. The three major indices in the US, Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq, are higher by approximately 1%. Please note, these are not outsized moves. The Russell 2000 is up 2.6%. Listening to commentators, the small cap outperformance is surprising given yields on the long end rising by 12bp. However, this aligns with our observations of small caps performing well as Trump gained in polls and yields increased; thus, this should not come as a surprise.

European futures are intriguing; the EURO STOXX 50 is down by approximately 0.5%, while earlier this morning it was marginally higher. The FTSE 100 future is marginally higher. This European underperformance, particularly in common currency, is likely due to heightened concerns about trade wars and tariffs. However, the movements are not outsized, suggesting that reactions to the election outcomes should be measured. Japanese stocks are significantly higher this morning as the yen weakens, with USDJPY at 153, entering what we call intervention territory. Japanese banks are performing exceptionally well, with the Topix bank index up almost 5% at the time of writing.

FI: US Treasury yields rose significantly as the markets expect a Trump victory and a possible Republican sweep as the Republicans have won the Senate. Hence, 10Y Treasury yields are up some 12-13bp this morning: However, several of the key swing states are yet to publish results at the time of writing, but it looks like a Trump victory. The US curve is steepening from the long end.

FX: On this election morning the USD has been the clear outperformer amid the outlook for a new Trump presidency and by extension tariffs and US-first policy. EUR/USD fell sharply below 1.08 but has rebounded over the last hour amid the potential for less expansionary fiscal policy should the Congress end up split. TRY stands out as a clear winner with markets pricing in a more Erdogan-friendly outlook while CAD and to some extent CHF and GBP are among the overperformers in G10 space. At this stage the CNY has kept up remarkably well. Unsurprisingly, the JPY has been a clear underperformer with the rise in yields sending USD/JPY above 153.50 whilst MXN has also come under pressure. Price action in the Scandies has so far been very muted which to some extent likely reflects poor overnight liquidity and bears watching when markets open.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

As Americans await the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, the potential economic impact of a Trump administration on Federal Reserve policy has emerged as a key question for investors.

While nearly all analysts agree that Trump's proposed tariff measures are likely to drive inflation higher, concerns also surround the potential influence he could wield over Federal Reserve policy and the risks he might pose to the central bank's independence.

Trump's inflationary policies could prompt a hawkish Fed response

Trump has pledged to reintroduce tariffs on imports, proposing a 60% tariff on Chinese products and a 10% tariff on imports from other countries.

Combined with potential tax cuts and stricter immigration policies, economists widely view these proposals as inflationary, and likely to intensify price pressures within the US economy.

A recent analysis by JP Morgan suggests that these tariffs, along with tax cuts, could push inflation up by an estimated 2.5 percentage points. Should inflation rise significantly, the Fed, which is mandated to ensure price stability, might have little choice but to respond with tighter monetary policy.

The bank's traditional tool for managing inflation - a hike in interest rates - would probably become necessary, or at the very least, anticipated rate cuts for 2025 could be put on hold.

Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jan Hatzius projects that Trump's proposed policies could push core inflation above 3% in 2025, exceeding the Fed's 2% target.

This, Hatzius noted: "might well be a reason to delay cuts that might otherwise occur more quickly".

If Trump's economic policies were to accelerate inflation, the Fed's ability to ease monetary conditions would be constrained, potentially complicating Trump's own growth agenda.

Could Trump undermine the Fed's independence?

The independence of the Federal Reserve from political influence is widely considered a cornerstone of a stable and credible monetary policy framework. This autonomy allows the Fed to make decisions based on economic data and the central bank's dual mandate - promoting maximum employment and stable prices - rather than political pressures.

An independent Fed is essential to maintaining control over inflation, upholding public trust in the currency, and fostering sustainable economic growth.

While the US president does not have direct control over Fed policy decisions, there are indirect ways a president can exert influence. For instance, a president's public statements, criticisms, or even threats regarding the Fed's decisions can create market noise and potentially sway public opinion.

This pressure could undermine public confidence in the Fed's independence if it appears the institution is responding to political rather than economic imperatives.

During his previous term, Trump frequently criticised the Fed and its Chair Jerome Powell, whom he appointed in 2018. Trump often urged the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, publicly pressing for rate cuts and even calling for negative interest rates when the federal funds rate was near zero.

Data analysis of Trump's Twitter feed reveals over 100 tweets targeting the Fed during his first three years as President, many demanding lower rates or critiquing Powell's hawkish stance.

"During Trump's term in the White House, he routinely pressured the Fed and his hand-picked Fed chair, Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates, foreshadowing how he might approach the Fed in a second term," wrote Sarah A. Binder, senior fellow at Brookings institution.

The expert believes that Trump will "undoubtedly" pressure the Federal Reserve if he is elected.

Trump's potential influence on future Fed leadership

If re-elected, Trump has indicated that he would not support reappointing Powell for a second term as Fed Chair when his current term expires in May 2026.

However, it is uncertain if Trump would seek to oust Powell from the position only a year before his term ends.

Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, suggested that Trump may aim to reshape the Fed through future appointments rather than attempt to remove Powell prematurely.

"It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his efforts on securing Senate approval for future nominations to the Fed Board of Governors," Brown explained.

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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ING

Forex

Economic

USD: Trump trades boost the dollar

Trump trades are in full swing as the counting of US ballots continues. Georgia and North Carolina have been called for US presidential candidate Donald Trump, and he is leading in all other swing states at the moment. The New York Times estimates Trump’s chances of victory are above 95% and now also sees the balance for the popular vote having tilted in favour of the Republicans. That has implications for the House maths, and with the Senate already been called for the Republicans, the base case for financial markets is currently a red clean sweep. Still, the House race remains a very close one, and the Congress split is likely to have deep implications for risk sentiment and the dollar.

The reaction so far in the FX market has been, as expected, a strong dollar across the board. There is no huge divergence across G10 currencies performance, where daily losses amount to around 1.0-1.7% except for the Canadian dollar, which is down by less than 1%. That mirrors a view that a Republican clean sweep is positive for the US economy and, by extension, Canadian exporters, as well as the fact that CAD will be less exposed to tariffs on China and geopolitical developments under a new Trump presidency.

The bear steepening and widespread selloff across the Treasury yield curve mirrors widespread expectations for an inflationary mix of domestic (fiscal and migration) and external (tariffs) policies from Trump. We are also observing some action in the short-term USD swap rates linked to a hawkish repricing in Fed rate expectations. In line with our expectations and consensus, markets are holding on to expectations for a 25bp FOMC cut to 4.75% tomorrow, but the OIS curve has recorded some 10bp+ repricing across 2025 tenors. That embeds a policy rate close to 4.0% in June 2025, almost 100bp higher than mid-September pricing.

We will wait for the election to be called by major US networks before updating our FX forecasts. But if the growing consensus for a Republican clean sweep ends up materialising, we expect a prolonged period of dollar outperformance.

EUR: Europe braces itself for Trump 2.0

European politicians will be waking up to face their fears this Wednesday morning. As it now seems likely now that Trump will take the presidency with a strong popular mandate, his trade agenda of levelling the playing field will weigh heavily on the open economy of continental Europe.

The euro has so far proved the weakest of the G10 currencies overnight and you can see why. The expectation is that Donald Trump extends his trade war from just China in his first term more broadly in his second term. This at a time of stagnant eurozone growth and self-reflection – especially in Germany – as to its future business model. Plans to export its way out of stagnation are no longer an option for the eurozone.

While a Trump win is an absolute negative for EUR/USD, it is still a close call whether a red sweep can be secured with a House win. Should the Republicans fail to win the House, we believe this would be the worst scenario for EUR/USD – faced with renewed trade wars yet without the support to global growth that extended US tax cuts could deliver. Under such a scenario, EUR/USD could be sub parity in late 2025. This would be a scenario where the European Central Bank would have to cut rates deep into accommodative territory.

For the short term, EUR/USD would probably have fallen harder today if markets had not started to price a Trump win in October. But the direction of travel over coming days looks to be towards the 1.0550/0600 area, with EUR/USD struggling to sustain gains over 1.0800/0850 now.

Given the UK economy’s smaller exposure to trade than the eurozone and some recently announced fiscal stimulus in the UK, EUR/GBP looks likely to press support at 0.8300 and looks biased to 0.8200 now. Elsewhere in Europe, the Swedish krona depreciation today is in line with G10 peers, and given EUR/SEK hasn't moved higher, we stick with our call that the Riksbank will cut by 50bp this week.

JPY: House vote will be key

USD/JPY is just over 1% higher today as it reacts to the rise in US yields. The yen also acts as a liquid proxy to Asian currencies about to be hit with another trade war. The Bank of Japan will not like another big run up in USD/JPY, although FX intervention looks unlikely amidst broad dollar gains.

We think the yen can outperform on the crosses especially were the Republicans not to gain the House. Under this scenario, US equity markets (particularly bank stocks) could hand back some of their recent gains. For the time being, however, expect broad dollar strength to dominate and 155 to prove the direction of travel.

EM: Key battle grounds

USD/CNH is up around 1% as markets price in renewed trade wars. In our pre-election scenario analysis, we felt something like 7.30 would be the best case for the onshore USD/CNY under a Trump win scenario where local Chinese authorities would not allow further depreciation. We take the view that they would not devalue the renminbi – as they did in summer 2019 – and instead are playing the long game of keeping the renminbi as a store of value to compete on the world stage. However, the renminbi will of course remain under pressure.

In Europe, much attention is on the Hungarian forint. It looks like the National Bank of Hungary will have to abandon its easing cycle to concentrate on supporting the forint, where EUR/HUF is moving through 410. Look out for action at National Bank of Hungary open market operations – e.g., leaving the market short of liquidity in an attempt to tighten overnight rates and support the forint. Hungarian forward points look to stay under widening pressure.

In Latam, the Mexican peso has been hit hard (off 3%). 2025 could be a rough year for the peso were presumed president Trump to opine about not renewing the USMCA at its review in 2026. High volatility is also undermining the carry trade and it’s hard to rule out a move to 22.00 over coming weeks. Both BRL and CLP had a poor Trump 1.0. Both will be under pressure again but a 50bp rate hike from Brazil today should offer some reprieve.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Pepperstone

Economic

WHERE WE STAND

Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 presidential election, and become just the second man – after Grover Cleveland – to serve two non-consecutive terms as President.

While votes continue to be counted, Trump has been called as the winner of key battlegrounds Georgia and North Carolina, while also being ahead in the ‘Rust Belt’ states, leaving Harris’ potential path to victory as almost impossibly narrow.

Financial markets became convinced of such a victory relatively early on election night, after North Carolina was called in Trump’s favour, and after a considerably better than expected showing for Trump in the hotly contested battleground state of Georgia.

While significant, the market reaction to Trump’s electoral victory has been largely as expected, though most assets trade off overnight extremes, as attention turns to the makeup of Congress.

In the FX space, the greenback has rallied sharply across the board, gaining substantial ground against both DM and EM peers. The dollar index (DXY) gained as much as 1.5%, the biggest jump since March 2020, vaulting north of the 105 figure, to its best levels since July. While all G10s trade well over 1% softer, it is trade-sensitive currencies that have underperformed to the most significant degree.

Nowhere is this more obvious than the MXN, which has slumped almost 3% to its weakest in a couple of years, as USD/MXN rips towards the 21 handle, amid substantial market concern that a second Trump Administration will lead to renewed trade barriers with Mexico. The CNH has also slumped, by around 1%, though rumours are abound that domestic banks have been selling USD offshore in order to prop up the CNH, at least to some degree.

The election outcome strengthens the existing USD bull case, with US economic growth set to continue outperforming that of peers for the foreseeable, and participants not especially perturbed by the Fed’s rapid pace of policy normalisation, which is broadly synchronised with that being taken by G10 peers.

The buck’s gains have come amid a sizeable sell-off across the Treasury curve, led by the long-end. This selling pressure has seen both 10- and 30-year yields rise by almost 20bp, with the former nudging towards 4.50%, and the latter on its way to a test of 4.65%, though around half of this sell-off has since been retraced.

As noted prior to the election, there are two primary catalysts for this selling pressure. Firstly, as growth expectations re-rate to the upside amid expectations that Trump’s proposed tax cuts, and significantly greater government spending, will act as a short-term fillip for the economy. And, secondly, amid higher inflation expectations given the risk of a resurgence in price pressures upon the imposition of the tariffs that Trump mooted throughout the election campaign.

Meanwhile, in the equity space, futures have advanced, with both the S&P and Nasdaq gaining over 1%. This move owes partly to the aforementioned tax cuts, and boost to earnings that will follow, but also due to the certainty that the election appears to have produced, with a drawn-out process to tabulate ballots, akin to that seen in 2020, seemingly having been avoided.

Of course, also as mentioned yesterday, the longer-run equity bull case remains intact. Economic growth continues to be strong, earnings growth throughout Q3 reporting season has been solid, and the forceful ‘Fed put’ continues to underpin sentiment. Now, with electoral uncertainty having been removed, the course is clear for further gains to take the market into year-end.

LOOK AHEAD

Naturally, participants will continue to digest the election results today, with particular focus on the makeup of Congress. While the GOP appear to have over 50 seats required to flip control of the Senate, only time will tell as to whether they are also able to flip control of the House, though full results here will likely take some time to become clear.

Were a so-called ‘red wave’ scenario to come to fruition – where the GOP control the Presidency, House, and Senate – some further downside would likely be seen in Treasuries, given the lack of constraints that would be applied to any of Trump’s fiscal proposals. In turn, the dollar could well find further demand by virtue of a ‘hunt for yield’, and continued bets on the ‘US exceptionalism’ theme.

In some ways, a ‘divided government’ scenario could be a goldilocks one for markets – with a perceived pro-business and pro-deregulation President providing a boost to sentiment, while deadlocked Congress keeps a lid on any fiscal largesse.

Away from the election, the docket is relatively quiet, while most releases will likely have little major market impact. That can certainly be said of this morning’s eurozone prints – the final services PMI figure, and September’s PPI data. Today’s 30-year US supply could well be considerably more interesting, with demand for the tap likely to be plentiful, given the 20-odd bp ramp higher in yields seen overnight.

Lastly, we hear from ECB President Lagarde today. What more could one want after an all-night long election shift than to listen to her! Still, I suppose there’s a degree of symmetry at least – we started this note talking about a perma-tanned individual, and end it talking about a different one.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Cohen

Economic

Shares of Tesla surged overnight as investors bet a potential Donald Trump election victory would benefit major backer and CEO of the carmaker, Elon Musk.

Tesla shares jumped 8% in overnight trading on Robinhood brokerage platform.

Last month, Musk donated almost $75 million to America PAC, which is the super political action committee that he established earlier in the year to support the Republican nominee.

Trump has promised to appoint Musk as the head of a government efficiency commission, if elected. During his speech at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in late October, the SpaceX owner said he could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget in that role.

“Your money is being wasted, and the department of government efficiency is gonna fix that,” he said at the rally. “We’re going to get the government off your back and out of your pocketbook.”

Tesla Jumps in Overnight Trading as Trump-backer Musk Seen Benefiting_1

As of Tuesday’s close, the stock has substantially underperformed the broader market this year, with shares rising about 1.2% compared with the 21.2% year-to-date gains seen by the S&P 500.

In Tuesday’s regular session, Tesla advanced 3.5%, breaking a six-day losing streak.

The move comes even as Trump has been viewed as unfriendly to clean energy stocks — a group that can include EV manufacturers such as Tesla.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Market reaction to potential Republican sweep

After stumbling on Monday following the release of weekend polls indicating a tight White House race, the market appears poised to invest in trades that could benefit from a Republican sweep.

Electoral college update

As the electoral college tally unfolds, Trump holds a significant lead over Harris. According to CNN, Trump has secured 211 votes, while Harris holds 153. The Associated Press reports Trump with 230 votes compared to Harris's 179.

With 270 votes needed for victory, key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada remain too close to call.

Potential Republican policies

A Republican sweep could usher in notable policy changes, including Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariffs on most imports, affecting allies like the European Union (EU) and Japan. For Chinese imports, tariffs could escalate to 60% or more if he secures the presidency.

Fiscal expansion would likely follow a Republican sweep, with increased spending, lower taxes, and rising debt. Trump plans to make the 2017 personal tax cuts permanent and reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% for domestic manufacturers, which could further widen the deficit, currently at a significant 6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Cryptocurrency and equities trends

The potential for a pro-crypto Republican administration has pushed bitcoin to a record high of $75,080, up 7.15%. Momentum suggests a run towards $80,000 could be within reach.

US equity futures are also trending up, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.20% to 5882, and the Nasdaq 100 adding 1.27% to 20,600.

Market movements

Markets are reacting in textbook fashion to these expectations.

US 10-year Treasury yields have jumped 17 basis points (bp) to 4.44%, a four-month peakUS dollar index (DXY) has surged 1.42% to 104.99, its highest level in four monthsUSD/JPY has traded above 154.00 for the first time since July’s turbulenceAUD/USD has fallen 1.8% to a three-month low of 0.6512, underlining its vulnerability to tariffs and the possibility of a trade war.

Provided the trend in voting observed during today’s Asian session continues in favour of Trump, we expect many of the moves highlighted above to extend into the sessions ahead. However, if the Democrats were to claw back lost ground, the US election could still bring a sting in the market’s tail. Market Reacts to Potential Republican Sweep: Shifts in Treasury Yields and Bitcoin Surge_1

Market Reacts to Potential Republican Sweep: Shifts in Treasury Yields and Bitcoin Surge_1

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TD Securities

Economic

The ISM Services index rose 1.1 points to 56.0 in October, far better than the consensus forecast calling for a pullback to 53.8 and reaching the highest level since July 2022.

The employment sub-index shot higher by 4.9 points to 53, more than undoing recent months’ weaker readings. Meanwhile, both the new orders (-2.0 points to 57.4) and business activity (-2.7 points to 57.2) indexes were lower on the month, though each remain well above their respective prior twelve-month averages.

The prices paid sub-component edged lower (-1.3 points to 58.1), while supplier deliveries times were further elongated, reaching a 27-month high of 56.4.

Fourteen services industries reported growth in October — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Mining; Public Administration; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a contraction in the month of October are: Other Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

Key Implications

The ISM Services index defied expectations and rose to the highest level in over two-years in October. While both new-orders and business activity were a tad lower on the month, they both remain well in expansionary territory. Conversely, the sharp increase in the employment sub-index – reaching the highest level since February 2023 – provides further support that last week’s soft job numbers were likely heavily influenced by Hurricane’s Helene and Milton. Based on survey responses, recent weather events as well as last month’s short-lived port-strike also seem largely to blame for the further uptick in supplier delivery times.

Taking a step back, service spending has remained remarkably stable through most of this year, with the three-and-six-month annualized rates of change holding steady at 2.5% as of September. With measures of new-orders and business activity still at healthy levels, the backbone of consumer spending is likely to remain a sturdy contributor to growth in the fourth quarter and into next year.

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Trump In The Lead – House Control Still Up In The Air

In focus today

Economic and market news

Could a Trump Administration Challenge the Fed's Independence?

Trump's inflationary policies could prompt a hawkish Fed response

Could Trump undermine the Fed's independence?

Trump's potential influence on future Fed leadership

Source: Euronews

FX Daily: Markets Call A Republican Clean Sweep

USD: Trump trades boost the dollar

EUR: Europe braces itself for Trump 2.0

JPY: House vote will be key

EM: Key battle grounds

Trump ‘Take Two’

WHERE WE STAND

LOOK AHEAD

Tesla Jumps in Overnight Trading as Trump-backer Musk Seen Benefiting

Source: CNBC

Market Reacts to Potential Republican Sweep: Shifts in Treasury Yields and Bitcoin Surge

Market reaction to potential Republican sweep

Electoral college update

Potential Republican policies

Cryptocurrency and equities trends

Market movements

ISM Services Jump To A 27-month High In October

Key Implications

Risk Disclosure