USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The US dollar is soaring, and Treasury yields are climbing, reshaping the outlook for USD/JPY and gold. With the Fed’s rate cut path in doubt and inflation expectations rising, directional risks are shifting fast. This note breaks down the key levels and potential moves heading into year-end.

Overview

The Japanese yen and gold price were hit hard by Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the US presidential election, driving a wave of US dollar strength and significantly higher US Treasury yields as the Republicans closed in on a Congressional clean sweep. Now that the uncertainty surrounding the election has passed, this note will examine the implications for USD/JPY and gold as we approach year-end.

US Treasury yields react to expansionary fiscal outlook

Amid the huge moves in stock and FX markets in response to the election result, one of the most underappreciated market moves was the significant selloff in the US Treasury market. With Trump’s fiscal plans being highly expansionary, including the removal or reduction of corporate and personal taxes, the prospect of faster economic growth, higher inflation, and larger fiscal deficits pushed yields higher across the entire US interest rate curve.

The chart below tracks the movement in US two, 10, and 30-year Treasury yields since September, with the bottom pane showing the change over the past 24 hours.

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_1

While yields hit fresh multi-month highs across all tenors, the selloff at the long end of the curve was the most pronounced as investors demanded increased compensation given the prospect of higher inflation and greater Treasury issuance.

Inflationary environment expected

Traders expect stronger inflation, as seen in the US inflation breakevens, which measure market views on average annual inflation over a set period. They spiked on the election result with the 10-year rate, shown below, pushing back to levels where policymakers at the Federal Reserve were previously reluctant to commit to rate cuts.

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_2

Fed rate cut bets slashed

While a Trump presidency and probable Republican clean sweep is unlikely to derail a rate cut from the Fed tomorrow with markets nearly fully priced for a 25-point move, looking further ahead, doubts are creeping in about the scale of easing the Fed will need to deliver.

The next chart examines the shape of the Fed funds futures curve between two dates to assess how overnight borrowing costs are expected to evolve. The left-hand chart measures expectations for the remaining two meetings this year, implying only around a 70% chance of another 25-point move in December.

Looking from now until the end of next year, just four 25-point cuts are expected. That figure stood at nine around the time when the Fed cut rates in September.

Considering the strength the US economy was showing even before the election result, it’s debatable whether the economy will need any rate cuts if major fiscal stimulus is on the way.

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_3

USD/JPY surge may prove hard to stop near-term

For financial assets offering low or no yields that are valued against the US dollar, the rapidly changing rate outlook has potentially serious ramifications for USD/JPY and gold.

The analysis below reinforces this, showing from left to right the daily chart for USD/JPY, US Treasury yields, and the rolling 20-day correlation between both. Whether we’re talking Fed rate cuts, short or long-term Treasury yields, correlation coefficient scores ranging between 0.84 and 0.93 emphasise the importance of the US interest rate outlook on USD/JPY movements.

Honestly, you don’t even need the correlation analysis to grasp the relationship – it’s visually obvious. And if we do see a further reduction in Fed rate cut pricing, which seems to be the risk, that points to upside risks for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_4

Having easily broken above the October highs following the election result, the question now is how far the move can extend. 155.36 could be a target for bulls, a minor level that acted as support and resistance earlier this year. The price consolidated either side of 157.70 in July, although that may reflect where the 50-day moving average was at the time. Keep an eye on it. Beyond that, 160.23 is a major level, just before the multi-decade peak of 161.95.

While the MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal, it’s yet to be confirmed by RSI (14), which remains in a modest downtrend. If we were to see a pullback after the rally around the election, buyers may step in around 153.88. That’s one potential setup traders might consider, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level for protection. The next downside level to watch is the 200-day moving average, although reaching that would likely require a steep and unlikely reversal in US Treasury yields.

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_5

Gold hammered, but for how much longer?

Gold suffered one of its largest daily declines in years on Wednesday, buckling under the weight of a stronger dollar and sharply higher US yields. However, it’s held up against those headwinds for much of the past two years, which raises the question: how long will this latest unwinding last?

USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks_6

While yesterday’s daily candle was ugly for bulls, it’s notable the rout stopped at the uptrend established in August. With RSI (14) and MACD both providing bearish signals, there’s a decent chance we could see further selling today, potentially retesting the 50-day moving average, another level that’s been respected in the past.

While momentum indicators favour selling pops rather than buying dips in the near term, let the price action guide you on what to do.

Below the 50-day moving average, $2600, the uptrend established in June, $2560.17, and $2531.81 are levels to watch. If the price bounces today, $2685.67 could provide a setup for either bears or bulls depending on the initial interaction. Before the latest rout, offers were noted above $2740, with the record high of $2790 being the next topside target after that.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Economic

[Quick Facts]

Japan's base pay sees the biggest increase in 31 years.

Trump wins the presidential election, Republicans control the Senate.

Trump 2.0 may lead to surging deficits and higher inflation.

The Bank of England may slow down rate cuts.

[News Details]

Japan's base pay sees the biggest increase in 31 years

The pace of gains in base pay quickened to 2.6% year on year in September versus a 2.4% clip in August, marking the strongest increase in over 31 years, according to data from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare on Thursday. Nominal cash earnings grew by 2.8%, falling short of the widely expected 3%. A more stable measure, excluding bonuses and overtime pay, indicated that full-time employees' wages grew by 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% in the previous month.

Despite some signs of softness, the wage increase momentum remains largely steady, sending a positive signal to authorities hoping for a wage growth cycle that would drive spending and demand-led inflation. Although the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at last week's policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his view that Japan is on track to achieve its inflation target, hinting at potential future rate hikes.

Trump wins the presidential election, Republicans control the Senate

Republican candidate and former President Trump has garnered over 270 electoral votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to projections and reports by several U.S. media outlets on October 6. Additionally, Republicans will control at least 52 seats in the Senate, also securing a majority.

U.S. election analysts believe that voter concerns about economic issues like inflation and illegal immigration played a significant role in Trump's victory. Additionally, his increased support among African American and Latino voters contributed to his win. Following Trump's victory, U.S. stock markets surged, with the three major indices reaching record highs. Optimism surrounding tax cuts, a still-dovish Federal Reserve, and the potential for better economic conditions fueled the rally.

Another key driver for the stock market in the near term will be reduced political uncertainty, a dynamic that often results in strong year-end returns during a presidential election year. With election uncertainty resolved, recent resilient economic growth data and the Fed's ongoing rate cuts support a positive short-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

Trump 2.0 may lead to surging deficits and higher inflation

President-elect Trump is set to re-enter the White House with ambitious plans, including broad-based import tariffs, immigration restrictions, and further tax cuts. Analysts suggest that while these plans may boost the economy in the short term, they could also lead to a widening budget deficit, sluggish labor force growth, and rising inflation.

Trump hopes to extend all 2017 tax cuts set to expire after 2025. During his campaign, he also proposed additional tax cuts, such as waiving taxes on Social Security retirement income, tips, and overtime pay. With no other revenue-raising plans beyond tariffs, the federal deficit is expected to grow rapidly.

If Congress supports his fiscal agenda, Oxford Economics analysts expect GDP to accelerate in 2026 and 2027, before sharply slowing toward the end of Trump's second term. They wrote in early November that by 2028, the deficit-driven stimulus will diminish, and the negative impacts of immigration and trade restrictions will become more prominent, leading to a slowdown in economic growth.

Increased deficit spending, restrictive trade and immigration policies, and tax cuts boosting demand could trigger higher inflation. At present, U.S. inflation is expected to return to the Fed's 2% annual target next year. According to Oxford Economics' model, inflation could exceed their baseline forecast by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points, which may limit the size of Fed rate cuts.

The Bank of England may slow down rate cuts

A report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts that, despite stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of the year, the British annual growth will remain around 1%, gradually increasing to 1.2% in 2025.

On the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, NIESR's report indicates that in September, the British consumer price index dropped to 1.7%, and the Bank of England is expected to continue cutting rates. However, considering that consumer prices may rise to around 2.5% early next year, the Bank is likely to slow the pace of rate cuts.

Regarding the autumn fiscal budget, NIESR's report highlights that the new budget raises national insurance rates for employers, which may negatively affect employment and increase the U.K.'s unemployment rate.

The Bank of England is set to hold a policy meeting this week. The market expects a 25-basis-point rate cut due to weak economic growth. Given the impact of fiscal easing on prices, the Bank may pause cuts in December to observe how the economy will evolve.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+ 15:30 ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane Speaks

UTC+ 15:35 ECB Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras Speaks

UTC+ 16:10 ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel Speaks

UTC+ 18:00 Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (Sept)

UTC+ 20:00 Bank of England's November Rate Decision

UTC+ 20:30 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's Press Conference

UTC+ 21:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

UTC+ 22:30 ECB Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras Speaks

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ING

Economic

As if an already dramatic day for the global economy needed any more excitement, Germany has delivered a significant political upset of its own. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced tonight that he has fired his finance minister Christian Lindner. Lindner’s party, the FDP, left the government.

In a short speech explaining the decision, Olaf Scholf was on fire, at least for someone from Hamburg, accusing Lindner of breach of trust and clientelism. Scholz positioned himself as a well-balanced leader who didn’t want to choose between social welfare and investment or support for Ukraine. Scholz also mentioned that he had proposed triggering the national escape clause of the national debt brake for 2025 but Lindner had refused to agree. Notably, Scholz explicitly stated that Germany's public finances were healthy and government debt was among the lowest in Europe, clearly distancing himself from Lindner who last week described a picture of worrying public finances. Let’s not forget that this announcement marked the beginning of the next election campaign. The official reaction by Christian Lindner shows that a mud fight or blame game between Scholz and Lindner was playing out.

Tonight's decision was not surprising but rather the climax of a long series of growing tensions within the government. The latest episode was a paper issued by Lindner last week.

Vote of confidence on 15 January, snap elections probably end March

Looking ahead, Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on 15 January. If he loses this vote, which is highly likely, the federal president would have to call snap elections within two months. Scholz himself already mentioned the end of March as a possible moment for the snap elections. Based on Scholz’s comments, a minority government doesn’t seem to be an option. Until then, the budget for 2025 still needs to be agreed. Tonight's comments suggested that the SPD and FDP will be trying to get the opposition CDU on board to support another year of pausing the constitutional debt brake. The next few days will show whether this strategy succeeds. Otherwise, Germany could enter the new year with only a rudimentary budget.

Given the neverending tensions within the government and clear disagreement on how to get the German economy out of its current state of stagnation and structural weakness, the collapse of the government could also be a blessing. Elections and a new government could and should end the current paralysis of an entire country and offer new and clear policy guidance and certainty.

Consequently, the election campaign will probably focus mainly on the economy and less on immigration, potentially weakening support for the AfD, and therefore offering a clear strategy to restore growth and competitiveness. This is an election campaign that will push the political parties to show their hands on where they stand on the debt brake or better, on the question of debt-financed investments. Whether this debate will really make it into the living rooms of German voters, is a different question. On the day Donald Trump won a second term in the White House, Germany is preparing for the first snap elections in almost 20 years, with politicians set to offer their own answers on how to make the German Economy Great Again.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Owen Li

Economic

Political

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House, having promised action on issues including immigration, the economy and the war in Ukraine.

He looks likely to enjoy plenty of support for his political agenda in Congress after his Republican Party regained control of the Senate.

In his victory speech, Trump vowed he would "govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises."

But in some cases, he has given little detail of how he might achieve his aims.

Asked in 2023 by Fox News whether he would abuse his power or target political opponents, he replied he would not, "except for day one".

"No, no, no, other than day one. We're closing the border, and we're drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I'm not a dictator."

Deport undocumented migrants

While campaigning, Trump promised the biggest mass deportations of undocumented migrants in US history.

He also pledged to complete the building of a wall at the border with Mexico that was started during his first presidency.

The number of crossings at the US southern border hit record levels at the end of last year during the Biden-Harris administration, before falling in 2024.

Experts have told the BBC that deportations on the scale promised by Trump would face huge legal and logistical challenges - and could slow economic growth.

Moves on economy, tax and tariffs

Exit poll data has suggested the economy was a key issue for voters. Trump has promised to "end inflation" - which rose to high levels under President Joe Biden before falling again. But a president's power to directly influence prices is limited.

He has also promised sweeping tax cuts, extending his overhaul from 2017. He has proposed making tips tax-free, abolishing tax on social security payments and shaving corporation tax.

He has proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on most foreign goods, to cut the trade deficit. Imports from China could bear an additional 60% tariff, he has said. Some economists have warned that such moves could push up prices for ordinary people.

Cut climate regulations

During his first presidency, Trump rolled back hundreds of environmental protections and made America the first nation to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

This time, he has again vowed to cut regulations, particularly as a way to help the American car industry. He has constantly attacked electric vehicles, promising to overturn Biden's targets encouraging the switch to cleaner cars.

He has pledged to increase production of US fossil fuels - vowing to "drill, drill, drill" on day one in favour of renewable energy sources such as wind power.

He wants to open areas such as the Arctic wilderness to oil drilling, which he argues would lower energy costs - though analysts are sceptical.

End Ukraine war

Trump has criticised the tens of billions of dollars spent by the US on supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia - and has pledged to end the conflict "within 24 hours" through a negotiated deal.

He has not said what he thinks either side should give up. Democrats say the move would embolden President Vladimir Putin.

Trump wants the US to disentangle itself from foreign conflicts generally. Regarding the war in Gaza - Trump has positioned himself as a staunch supporter of Israel, but has urged the American ally to end its operation.

He has also pledged to end the related violence in Lebanon, but gave no detail on how.

No abortion ban

Against the wishes of some of his supporters, Trump said during the presidential debate with Kamala Harris that he would not sign into law a national abortion ban.

In 2022, the nationwide constitutional right to abortion was overturned by the Supreme Court, which had a majority of conservative judges following Trump's first presidency.

Reproductive rights became a key campaigning topic for Harris, and several states approved measures to protect or expand abortion rights on polling day.

Trump himself has regularly said states should be free to decide their own laws on abortion, but struggled to find a consistent message of his own.

Pardon some Jan 6 rioters

Trump has said he will "free" some of those convicted of offences during the riot in Washington DC on 6 January 2021, when his supporters stormed the Capitol building in an effort to thwart the 2020 election victory of Joe Biden.

Several deaths were blamed on the violence, which Trump was accused of inciting.

He has worked to downplay the riot's significance and recast the hundreds of supporters who were convicted as political prisoners.

He continues to say many of them are "wrongfully imprisoned", though has acknowledged that "a couple of them, probably they got out of control".

Sack Special Counsel Jack Smith

Trump has vowed to sack "within two seconds" of taking office the veteran prosecutor leading two criminal investigations against him.

Special Counsel Jack Smith has indicted Trump over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and over his alleged mishandling of classified documents.

Trump denies any wrongdoing, and managed to prevent either case coming to trial before the election. He says Mr Smith has subjected him to a "political witch hunt".

Trump will return to the White House as the first ever president with a criminal conviction, having been found guilty in New York of falsifying business records.

Source: BBC

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FxPro

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Market Picture

The cryptocurrency market surged with excitement as its capitalization jumped 7% in just 24 hours, reaching $2.45 trillion and briefly peaking at $2.48 trillion, matching the highs seen in July. Trading volumes since the start of the day were the highest since early August and have a chance of surpassing those levels.

Bitcoin has been a key driver of the crypto market rally, rising 6.6% over the past 24 hours to an all-time high of $75.4K before retreating to $73.8K at the time of writing. The current move is within a rising channel that has been in place since September. Its upper border is now near $76.6K (above the recent highs), and the RSI is far from overbought, suggesting that there is still upside potential.

Dogecoin rallied nearly 55% from its November 3rd lows to Wednesday afternoon’s high, fuelled by Trump’s improved chances of victory and anticipation around the election results. In addition to the general positivity for cryptocurrencies, speculators are betting on Musk’s potential position in the new administration. The Tesla founder and head of X (formerly Twitter) has maintained the recognition of one of the first meme coins for many years.

News Background

Another recalculation saw the difficulty of mining the first cryptocurrency jump by 6.24%. The index reached a record high of 101.65 T. The average hash rate over the two-week calculation period dropped slightly (680 EH/s) but is currently back above 720 EH/s.

The Michigan State Pension Fund announced the purchase of shares in two Ethereum funds for approximately $11 million. The organisation was one of the top five holders of ETHE. This is the first pension fund initiative since the launch of spot ETH ETFs in July. Bloomberg called the Michigan authorities’ decision a ‘big win for Ethereum’.

According to Arkham, the largest transaction in recent months was sent by the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox to two unknown wallets: 34,371 BTC ($2.3 billion).

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Glendon

Economic

What is Aureus Greenway Holdings?

Aureus Greenway Holdings, or AGH, operates in the field of green infrastructure, offering solutions that integrate eco-friendly practices with urban development. Its focus spans renewable energy projects, sustainable building practices, and advanced waste management solutions—all geared toward minimizing environmental impact while maximizing social and economic benefits.

With global efforts toward reducing carbon emissions, AGH aims to position itself as a leader in the transition to greener urban infrastructure. By targeting sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable urban planning, and low-emission building technologies, AGH aligns with global sustainability goals, appealing to investors interested in impact-driven growth.

Key Financial Details of the AGH IPO

The AGH IPO is expected to raise $50 million by offering 5 million shares at a price of $10 per share. This funding will be directed primarily toward expanding AGH’s portfolio of renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure projects. The initial capital will also support research into advanced green building technologies and increase the firm’s capacity to take on large-scale projects that promote energy efficiency and resource conservation.

Each share grants investors ownership stakes in a company committed to addressing some of the world’s most pressing environmental challenges. AGH plans to use its IPO proceeds to further its mission in building green infrastructure solutions, such as solar power integration in urban environments, which may yield significant returns as demand for sustainable development rises.

AGH’s Strategy and Market Positioning

AGH is positioned to benefit from several trends that favor the adoption of green solutions. With more cities worldwide striving for carbon-neutrality goals, AGH’s infrastructure projects aim to reduce pollution, conserve resources, and create resilient urban environments that can withstand environmental challenges.

Some of AGH’s ongoing and planned projects include:

Solar-Powered Infrastructure: Developing solar integration projects for commercial and residential buildings, aiming to lower energy costs and reduce carbon footprints.

Eco-Friendly Waste Management: AGH is also exploring waste-to-energy solutions that can help municipalities reduce landfill usage while generating renewable energy.

Sustainable Urban Planning: AGH seeks to collaborate with governments on sustainable urban initiatives, including green spaces, efficient public transport, and eco-friendly residential communities.

Through these projects, AGH envisions itself as a key player in making green urban living more accessible and affordable.

Opportunities and Risks for AGH Investors

Opportunities:

Rapidly Growing Sector: The market for green infrastructure is expanding as governments worldwide are setting ambitious goals for carbon reduction and renewable energy adoption.

Environmental and Social Impact: AGH offers investors a chance to support a mission-driven company aiming to leave a positive footprint on the environment.

Long-Term Revenue Potential: Projects in renewable energy and sustainable construction often provide stable, long-term revenue streams, which could be attractive to investors seeking dependable growth.

Risks:

Regulatory Dependencies: The success of AGH’s projects often hinges on government incentives, which may change based on economic or political factors.

Capital-Intensive Projects: Building green infrastructure can require significant initial capital, meaning AGH may face funding challenges if revenue generation lags or projects encounter unforeseen delays.

Competition and Technological Advancements: The green infrastructure sector is competitive and requires constant innovation. AGH will need to stay at the forefront of technological developments to maintain its edge.

Why AGH’s IPO Matters in Today’s Market

Aureus Greenway Holdings’ IPO comes at a time when environmental concerns are at the forefront of global conversations. With climate change awareness rising, both retail and institutional investors are increasingly looking for investment options that align with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. AGH’s focus on creating sustainable solutions aligns with this trend, positioning it as an attractive option for investors who prioritize social responsibility.

AGH aims to offer a unique value proposition by focusing on high-impact projects that deliver tangible environmental benefits. From green energy generation to eco-friendly waste management solutions, the company’s initiatives are designed to address some of the most pressing environmental issues of our time.

Conclusion: Should You Consider Investing in AGH?

For investors passionate about sustainability, the Aureus Greenway Holdings (AGH) IPO presents a compelling opportunity to contribute to a greener future. With its focus on sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy, AGH is well-positioned to capture value from the accelerating transition toward eco-conscious living and urban planning. However, like any IPO, investing in AGH comes with risks, particularly due to its reliance on capital-intensive projects and evolving regulatory landscapes.

Investors willing to support a mission-driven company with long-term growth potential and a commitment to environmental impact might find AGH a worthwhile addition to their portfolio. While the journey may be challenging, the company’s strong mission, industry positioning, and focus on green innovation offer a unique appeal in the evolving investment landscape.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Political

Former President Donald Trump is projected to be the next president of the United States, according to an ABC News projection issued at 5:31 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, Nov. 6. As of 6 a.m. Eastern, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had been projected for Trump, and the once-and-future president leads in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada as well. At this point, the most likely final outcome appears to be a 312-226 Trump victory. Plus, while it will take some time to count all the ballots, Trump looks likely to win the national popular vote for president, too.

Over the next few months, we at 538 will do a lot of analysis to figure out how exactly Trump won. He may be, after all, only the second Republican presidential candidate since 1992 to win the national popular vote. That warrants not only introspection among Democrats, but a lot of quality analysis, too. And Trump's sweep of the swing states — while not surprising — also represents a new high-water mark for his electoral success.

For now, though, here are three quick possible explanations for Trump's victory tonight. These insights draw primarily on the exit poll, which for various reasons is imperfect but for now remains the best source of available data on why and how different types of people voted. (We reserve the right to revisit these conclusions when more data is available.)

Inflation

For all the hubbub about various issues, statements, rallies and rhetoric during this election, the economy is unique as providing the most obvious gravitational pull toward Trump. Voters rank the cost of living in America as one of their top concerns — and no doubt it is one of the most pressing, salient and visible problems in their lives. It is not a stretch of the imagination to imagine they would punish the incumbent party for this regardless of how unfavorably they viewed Trump; in fact that is what voters have been doing all around the world over the past three years.

According to the exit poll, 35 percent of voters nationally rated the "state of democracy" as the most important factor to their vote. Eighty-one percent of these people voted for Harris and just 17 percent for Trump. But the economy was the next-most-influential issue. Among these voters, Trump led 79 percent to 20 percent. In the end, abortion did not rate as highly as Democrats might have hoped; only 14 percent rated it as their biggest concern.

It's possible that inflation contributed to the growing divide between high-income voters and low-income voters. According to the exit poll, Democrats increased their vote share by 9 points among voters living in households that make more than $100,000 dollars a year. Among households making less, which account for about 60 percent of voters, Republicans gained 12 points on margin.

Racial polarization

Initial exit poll estimates also suggest Democratic support declined among non-white voters and rose among white voters (especially college-educated ones). The exit poll indicates Trump won white voters by 12 percentage points, 55 percent to Harris's 43 percent. Compared to the 2020 exit poll, that is a 5-point improvement for Democrats.

Democrats performed best relative to 2020 among white college-educated voters. They moved 7 points to the left, voting 54 percent to 44 percent for Harris. Non-white non-college-educated voters, meanwhile, moved 13 points toward Trump.

The Republican's gains with nonwhites was particularly acute among Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats' vote margin with the group fell by 26 points, according to the exit poll, to just a 53-percent-to-45-percent margin. Trump's vote share with Latinos looks like it could be the best since George W. Bush's 44 percent in 2004. Latino men moved 33 points toward Trump, one of his biggest swings.

Democratic turnout was poor

In addition to economic headwinds and deteriorating margins with their base, it looks like Democrats also simply had bad turnout. So far, around 137 million ballots have been counted for the 2024 presidential race. Predictions of final turnout are hovering somewhere in the neighborhood 152 million votes. That would be a decrease from the 158 million who voted in 2020 and would be equivalent to about 61 percent of eligible voters. That would be a decline from 66 percent in 2020.

It is also likely that the drop in turnout disproportionately affected Democrats. While we can't be sure until we can review records of who actually voted (states will release those over the next few months), the drop-off in turnout is currently greater in the most Democratic counties across the battleground states. That is something that would uniquely hurt Harris; if you're a Democrat, then lower turnout in the suburbs is bad, of course, but not so bad as missing the mark in Philadelphia or Milwaukee, where you're relying on a lot of votes to carry you to victory.

Over the next few months, we'll be able to pore over even more data about why Trump won (again). The basic explanation is that this was always going to be a hard election for Harris to win. She both failed to persuade swing voters and to get out her base where it mattered most. Democrats will have to do a lot of soul-searching to figure out how to recover.

Source:ABC New

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USD/JPY, Gold Forecast: Soaring US Dollar, Rising US Yields Shift Directional Risks

Overview

US Treasury yields react to expansionary fiscal outlook

Inflationary environment expected

Fed rate cut bets slashed

USD/JPY surge may prove hard to stop near-term

Gold hammered, but for how much longer?

November 7th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

German Government Collapses And Snap Elections Loom In March

Vote of confidence on 15 January, snap elections probably end March

Seven Things Trump Says He Will Do as President

Deport undocumented migrants

Moves on economy, tax and tariffs

Cut climate regulations

End Ukraine war

No abortion ban

Pardon some Jan 6 rioters

Sack Special Counsel Jack Smith

Source: BBC

Crypto Euphoria

Market Picture

News Background

Aureus Greenway Holdings (AGH) IPO: A New Investment in Sustainable Infrastructure

What is Aureus Greenway Holdings?

Key Financial Details of the AGH IPO

AGH’s Strategy and Market Positioning

Opportunities and Risks for AGH Investors

Opportunities:

Risks:

Why AGH’s IPO Matters in Today’s Market

Conclusion: Should You Consider Investing in AGH?

How Donald Trump won the presidency

Inflation

Racial polarization

Democratic turnout was poor

Source:ABC New

Risk Disclosure