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Germany goes to the polls, but far-right AfD unlikely to form government.German CPI data might be bigger driver for the Euro.US inflation also in the spotlight as PCE report awaited.CPI releases in Australia and Japan, Canadian GDP also on tap.
Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) sensation DeepSeek plans to release key codes and data to the public starting next week, an unusual step to share more of its core technology than rivals such as OpenAI have done.
The 20-month-old start-up, which surprised Silicon Valley with the sophistication of its AI models last month, plans to make its code repositories available to all developers and researchers. That allows anyone to download and build on or improve the code behind the well-regarded R1 or other platforms, it said in a post on X.
With the move, DeepSeek is pushing harder on an open-source approach to AI development that’s won more advocates since its models outperformed OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc competitors in benchmark tests. Companies such as Meta already make their models available to the public, allowing users to customise the platform for their own applications. OpenAI began as partially open source, though it has since retreated from that mission. But DeepSeek says it intends to go further by publicising the underlying code, the data used to create it, and the way it develops and manages that code.
It also potentially escalates a race between the US and China to develop ever-more advanced AI models. By making its coding secrets freely available, DeepSeek is helping to ensure wider adoption of its technology, which is already spurring concerns about security among governments from the US to Australia.
“We are a tiny team exploring AGI. Starting next week, we will be open-sourcing 5 repos, sharing our small but sincere progress with full transparency,” DeepSeek announced on its X handle on Friday.
A code and data repository is a digital storage space, where the data and resources needed for training, running, and evaluating AI models are organised and managed. The Hangzhou-based start-up said its technology had been fully tested, deployed and documented.
DeepSeek’s surprising progress has forced larger, more established rivals like Baidu Inc to adopt the open-source framework. But global competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic still keep their AI models, repositories and data proprietary.
Investors in the biggest US AI start-ups like Anthropic PBC and xAI have ploughed tens of billions of dollars into the industry in the hope of a big payday. DeepSeek, which emerged out of a quantitative hedge fund run by founder Liang Wenfeng, has so far not revealed outside backing, and could face less pressure to build a revenue model.
“No ivory towers — just pure garage-energy and community-driven innovation,” the start-up posted on X.
Oil prices dipped in midday trading on Friday but were still on track to record a large weekly gain on concerns of tightening supply and a weaker dollar.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.50 per cent lower at $76.10 a barrel at 12.04pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 0.52 per cent at $72.10 a barrel.
This week, worries about crude oil supply intensified when a drone strike – which Moscow blamed on Ukraine – hit a Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pumping station in Russia's Krasnodar region.
Moscow said that oil shipments through the pipeline, Kazakhstan's main export route, had dropped by 30-40 per cent. landlocked Kazakhstan depends on the pipeline for more than 80 per cent of its oil exports and lacks alternative transportation options.
The Central Asian country has achieved record-high oil production levels despite damage to its export route, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing industry sources. The country’s oil and gas condensate production reached about 2.12 million barrels per day (bpd) on February 19, the sources said.
Oil markets have been volatile in recent weeks as investors weigh the prospects of a global trade war and a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Moscow’s energy industry.
This week, Washington and Moscow began talks aimed at ending the war that began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“While we anticipate the prospect of a peace agreement between Russia-Ukraine to have sizeable ramifications for natural gas, any associated easing in sanctions on Russia is not likely to comprise considerable increases in aggregate Russian crude oil flows,” MUFG said in a research note on Thursday.
Russia's crude oil production is limited by its Opec+ target of 9 million bpd, rather than by current sanctions, which affect the destination of its exports but not the overall volume, the Japanese lender said.
Despite US pressure to reduce prices, Opec+ is considering delaying planned monthly production increases set to begin in April, according to a Bloomberg report from Tuesday.
The group has held back 5.86 million bpd of supply from the market as part of a series of output curbs since 2022. It plans to gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd through monthly increases by late 2026.
Oil prices were also supported this week by a weaker dollar, lowering the cost of oil for investors.
After reaching its lowest point of the year, dipping below 106.4 on Thursday, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's value against a group of major currencies, was up by 0.10 per cent at 106.48 at 11.57am UAE time.
The dollar weakened after Mr Trump hinted at a potential trade deal with China, easing market uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
On Wednesday, the US President said he expected Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit the US, though he did not provide a timeline for the visit.
Mr Trump told reporters on Air Force One that a new trade deal between the US and China is “possible”.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, offering support to an economy which barely grew last quarter, according to economists polled by Reuters who expected a further 50 points of easing this year.
After unexpectedly holding its policy rate steady last month, South Korea's central bank signaled it needed to wait for domestic political turmoil, which weighed on the currency, to stabilize before easing further.
With the won rebounding around 2.5% against the U.S. dollar this year and inflation at 2.2% in January, not far from the BOK's medium-term target of 2%, the central bank now has room to cut rates to support a weak economy.
All but one of the 36 economists polled February 14-20 expected the BOK to cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Tuesday.
"We believe the BOK is going to cut by 25 basis points. They will be acknowledging that the economy will face a greater negative output gap, which justifies the BOK's move to address growth," said Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities.
"As long as FX volatility remains subdued, I think there is a chance for the BOK to implement additional rate cuts this year."
The central bank, in its last policy statement, projected economic growth to be slower this year than the previously estimated 1.9% due to weaker exports, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and ongoing political turmoil, which is expected to remain a drag on growth this year.
Asia's fourth-largest economy, which heavily depends on semiconductor exports - particularly to the U.S. - faces significant risks from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats against major trading partners, which could hit South Korean shipments.
That increases pressure on the BOK to cut policy rates to stave off a potential recession.
A strong majority of economists, 32 of 35, predicted a quarter-point rate cut to 2.50% in Q2, with most also forecasting another cut in Q3, bringing the rate 75 bps lower than currently, to 2.25%.
That was despite the U.S. Federal Reserve projected to make fewer or no cuts in coming months. A separate Reuters poll showed economists divided on the timing of the next Fed rate cut, with most expecting it by mid-year and some seeing it later or not at all.
Median forecasts showed Korean rates would remain unchanged at 2.25% in Q4 2025, a view unchanged from the January poll.
"Our view is the Fed will only cut once this year, in June... the U.S. (Fed) is pausing because they're getting closer to the neutral, but (BOK) still has some room to cut in order to get to the neutral," said Bum Ki Son, North Asia economist at Barclays.
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