What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders

Economic

Forex

Summary:

With Donald Trump's recent victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, I’m re-evaluating the potential impact on the EUR/USD pair.

Trump win is marked as USD-positive, suggesting that significant dollar strength could reshape EUR/USD trends in the months ahead. Here, we will dive into the primary factors shaping this pair in the wake of Trump’s win and the implications for both short-term and long-term trading strategies.

Trump’s Victory and a “Red Wave” Congress: The Impact on USD

Trump’s re-election, alongside a Republican majority in Congress, sets the stage for aggressive fiscal stimulus and assertive trade policies. This alignment represents a potent "red wave" scenario, positioning the U.S. dollar for notable strength. Let’s explore the major factors and the expected effects on EUR/USD.

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_1

Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus Boosts USD Demand

With full Congressional support, Trump is expected to implement substantial fiscal measures aimed at accelerating U.S. economic growth amidst a slowing global economy. Key impacts include:

Increased Economic Growth Expectations: As fiscal stimulus supports economic resilience in the U.S., investors worldwide may look to USD-denominated assets, fuelling dollar demand.

Downward Pressure on EUR/USD: For Europe, facing recession risks and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB), this may mean capital flows favour the USD, driving EUR/USD lower. Traders tracking fiscal policy announcements could find success in taking short EUR/USD positions during these periods of heightened U.S. growth expectations.

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_2

Assertive Trade Policies Reinforce USD Strength

Trump’s anticipated protectionist trade stance could include new tariffs and policies targeted at key U.S. trading partners, particularly the Eurozone and China. These moves are likely to have a two-fold effect:

Additional Downward Pressure on the Euro: European exporters may suffer amid trade uncertainties, making the EUR more vulnerable.

Strengthened Dollar Position: As the U.S. seeks a competitive advantage through trade restrictions, USD is likely to gain, further driving EUR/USD lower.

For EUR/USD spot traders, maintaining short positions during trade policy announcements could be profitable, especially with news hinting at new tariffs or import restrictions.

Elevated Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Response

Historically, Trump’s fiscal stimulus and trade policies have contributed to inflationary pressures, and this dynamic may re-emerge in 2025. Persistent inflation might force the Fed to reassess its stance, potentially shifting from a dovish position to a more hawkish one. For EUR/USD traders, key considerations include:

Volatility Catalysts: Inflation data and Fed communications will be essential for determining shifts in USD strength.

Short EUR/USD Strategy: Favourable trades may emerge following inflation data that heightens the Fed’s likelihood of maintaining rate hikes or delaying cuts. Traders may want to leverage inflation-driven USD strength to optimize entry and exit points.

FedWatch Toll

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_3

Strategic EUR/USD Positioning in 2025

With the “red wave” and Trump’s fiscal and trade policies setting the stage, here’s how EUR/USD trading could unfold:

Short-Term (Year End 2024)

Expect downward momentum for EUR/USD as U.S. fiscal and trade policies continue to support the USD. Traders could find strong opportunities with short EUR/USD positions around high-impact fiscal announcements, trade-related news, and inflation data.

Medium to Long-Term (H1 2025)

As the initial impacts of fiscal stimulus and trade policies stabilize, the USD’s upward momentum may moderate. If the Fed continues easing policy in late 2024 or early 2025 in response to slowing growth, traders may find opportunities to pivot to EUR/USD longs in anticipation of a USD pullback.

Chart-Based Strategy Insights for 2025

The Trump vs. Harris matrix offers a strategic framework for 2024, emphasizing USD strength. However, flexibility will be crucial as market conditions evolve. Traders should consider:

Short EUR/USD Positions: The matrix suggests a strong preference for short EUR/USD, especially as fiscal and trade policies favour USD strength.

Volatility Triggers: Inflation reports, fiscal announcements, and trade policy changes are expected to drive market fluctuations, offering entry and exit points for responsive.

Long-Term Strategy Adjustment: With potential Fed rate cuts to continue during 2024, economic cooling could signal an inflection point, making it possible to pivot to EUR/USD longs when conditions suggest a USD pullback.

Harris x Trump Matrix

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_4

Trading EUR/USD in a Post-2024 Trump Landscape

Trump’s 2024 victory and a red-wave Congress mark a USD-positive scenario, aligning with the “Fiscal Activism & Assertive Trade Policy” quadrant of the matrix. This setup creates a favourable environment for short EUR/USD trades in the near term, especially as fiscal stimulus and assertive trade policies unfold.

However, as the economic cycle matures, traders should remain vigilant for shifts in the Fed’s stance, which could prompt a pivot in EUR/USD strategies. The Trump vs. Harris matrix thus provides a valuable framework for navigating both immediate opportunities and potential shifts, guiding a structured approach to trading EUR/USD in 2024 and beyond.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

For the past few years only cursory attention has been paid to the unemployment figures because the jobless rate has been low and there have been plenty of unfilled vacancies for those seeking work. But, thanks to a slowing economy and decisions made by Rachel Reeves in last month’s budget, that could be about to change.

For the next few months every release on the state of the labour market will be scrutinised to see what impact two announcements made by Reeves last month are having on jobs.

Inevitably, the chancellor’s decision to increase the national minimum wage by 6.7% and increase employer national insurance contributions will have some effect but it will take months to assess how big those effects will be.

The good news for Reeves is that she has pushed up the cost of employment when the labour market is in pretty good shape. The unemployment rate in the three months to September stood at 4.3%, up from 4% in the three months to August. However, the problems the Office for National Statistics is having with the data for its labour force survey means that increase should be treated with caution. Britain’s jobless rate is still low by historical standards.

The less good news for the chancellor is that there are some signs of the labour market cooling. An alternative measure of calculating jobs growth – payroll numbers from HMRC – was down by 5,000 in October and has fallen in five of the past seven months.

Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies dropped by 35,000 in the three months to October and at 831,000 is now only slightly above their pre-pandemic levels. On the face of it, the increase in average earnings growth from 3.9% in the three months to August to 4.3% in the three months ending in September paints a stronger picture but the annual comparisons are distorted by one-off payments to civil servants in the summer of 2023.

Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said the figures from the ONS pointed to a steady loosening in the labour market, which makes it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates but creates a potential headache for Reeves.

For now there is not much for the chancellor to worry about. But as Raja notes: “There are some cracks appearing in the labour market – even before budget measures start to bite.”

Source: TheGuardian

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ACY

Economic

Forex

USD Outlook: The Role of Domestic Policies and Global Trade Dynamics

The outlook for the U.S. dollar (USD) is heavily shaped by domestic policies, particularly those emphasizing tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation under the Trump administration. Most likely this focus on protective tariffs could increase import costs for the U.S., exerting pressure on foreign economies while potentially incentivizing U.S.-based production. At the same time, measures such as easing regulations for businesses and offering tax incentives are expected to strengthen domestic industries, which could add momentum to the USD. However, a stronger dollar is not a foregone conclusion. Reactions from global markets and countermeasures by other governments could offset these U.S. policies, leading to a more balanced currency outcome.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_1

Recent volatility in the USD has highlighted market sensitivity to policy uncertainties. A rise in profit-taking in several currency pairs, a reflection of traders’ cautious approach to the unpredictable trajectory of tariffs and other economic measures. This pattern suggests that while some expect short-term gains in the USD, there is hesitancy given the possibility of rapid shifts in trade policies. In response to potential U.S. economic moves, other nations may take strong fiscal actions. China, for example, could introduce further stimulus, while Germany may contemplate fiscal expansion, both of which could mitigate the effects of U.S. policies on the USD. While U.S. domestic measures lean toward strengthening the USD, these potential international responses might reduce the overall impact, underscoring the complexity of the dollar’s outlook.

EUR Outlook: Economic Pressures and Policy Challenges for the Euro

The outlook for the Euro (EUR) is clouded by economic challenges and policy uncertainties across the Eurozone. GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone, estimating a 0.5% contraction due to mounting trade tensions and potential spillover effects from global economic policies. To address this economic drag, I’m anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) may pursue further rate cuts as a stimulus measure, which would likely exert downward pressure on the Euro.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_2

Trade policies, even those primarily targeting China, could still indirectly impact the Eurozone. As the U.S. considers interest rate hikes to counter inflation, the ECB may lean toward rate cuts to stimulate the struggling Eurozone economy, amplifying the divergence between U.S. and Eurozone monetary policies. This split in policy direction may lead to a weaker Euro, as the growing interest rate gap makes the currency less attractive to investors. Should U.S. tariffs and inflation continue to rise, you can check how the inflation is shaping the USD on this blog I’ve done: USA CPI to be higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate could drop by as much as 3%, potentially even approaching parity. This scenario is likely to play out if U.S. inflation and interest rates outpace those of the Eurozone, where economic stimulus and a declining interest rate differential might amplify pressure on the Euro.

The widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Eurozone as a central driver for potential shifts in the EUR/USD exchange rate. With U.S. inflation possibly spurring further rate hikes and the Eurozone moving in the opposite direction, this divergence could strengthen the USD relative to the Euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate closer to or even below parity (1:1).

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_3

Risk factors and policy timing will play a key role in determining the extent of this movement. Should inflation rise significantly in the U.S. due to increased tariffs, the Federal Reserve may respond with rate hikes to control inflationary pressures. Conversely, if European fiscal policy fails to sufficiently support economic growth, the ECB may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting strategy, intensifying downward pressure on the Euro. Looking further ahead, forthcoming 2025 outlook will incorporate the intricate interplay between these monetary policies and the broader global fiscal response. Although short-term forecasts lean toward a stronger USD, the long-term trajectory may evolve with ongoing policy developments.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

"They [EU countries] don't take our cars. They don't take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price," said Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential candidate, shortly before the election.

Following his victory, the EU is now considering its options to address a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US - a major proposal from Trump's 2024 re-election campaign.

Which EU countries would be most affected by a potential 10% tariff? Which European nations have the largest share of the US in their extra-EU exports? What percentage of each EU country's exports go to the US?

Euronews Business has analysed the potential impact of Trump's proposed tariffs by highlighting the value of goods exported to the US by EU countries.

In 2023, Germany led by a wide margin, exporting €157.7bn in goods to the US according to Eurostat. Italy and Ireland followed, with exports valued at €67.3bn and €51.6bn, respectively.

Together, these three countries make up 55% of the EU's exports to the US.

France exported €43.9bn, the Netherlands €40.5bn, Belgium €31.3bn, and Spain €18.9bn.

Focusing on shares over volume

Analysing the share of the US in extra-EU exports and the share of the US in total goods exports for each EU country would highlight the potential risks for each nation, even for those with smaller overall export volumes.

"Extra-EU" refers to transactions with all countries outside the EU - in other words, trade with the rest of the world, excluding EU member countries.

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?_1

In 2023, Ireland had the highest share of exports to the US among EU countries, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports directed to the US. This means that nearly half of Ireland's exports outside the EU were destined for the US.

In addition, seven other EU countries had proportions of 20% or more, ranging from 20% to 26%. These countries included Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.

Among the EU's top four economies, Spain had the lowest share of exports to the US in its extra-EU exports at 13%, followed by France at 16%.

This proportion was less than 10% in seven EU countries. These are Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, Romania and Greece.

Share of the US in total exports of goods

Ireland is by far the most reliant EU country on exports to the US. In 2023, more than a quarter (26.6%) of all Irish goods exports were directed to the US, according to the Eurostat. This makes Ireland a clear outlier, highlighting the country's significant dependence on the US market.

Finland, Italy and Germany followed, with 11.1%, 10.7% and 9.9% of their total goods exports going to the US, respectively.

Among the EU's top four economies, France's exports to the US accounted for 7.3%, while Spain's stood at 4.8%.

Nordic countries have significant exports to the US

The US also held a significant share in the exports of the Nordic countries. Besides Finland (11.1%), which ranked second, Sweden (8.9%) and Denmark (8.3%) ranked fifth and sixth among EU countries in terms of export share to the US.

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?_2

This proportion was also above 5% in other EU countries, including Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%) and Belgium (6.3%).

In total, the share of the US in exports exceeded 5% in 10 EU countries.

Thus, a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US would have a significant impact not only on Ireland, Germany and Italy but also a number of other countries.

Swedish PM acknowledges possible "severe impact on Swedish exports"

Accepting the potential risks, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that his country has been preparing for various scenarios and developments. "One risk is a trade war between the US and China, along with higher tariffs in general, which could severely impact Swedish export companies," he said, according to Swedish media including Ttela.

Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape

Kenneth Kraszewski, Counsel at Borenius Attorneys, noted in his blog that Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape as the US considers imposing tariffs on European goods. The US is Finland's largest trading partner outside the EU, and "Finnish industries - particularly those in steel, paper, machinery, and technology - could encounter higher barriers to entry into the US market," he wrote.

The US is the top destination for British exports

Among major European countries outside the EU, the US holds a significant share of the UK’s goods exports. According to the ONS, the US accounted for 15.6% of UK exports in 2023, totalling approximately €74bn (£61.5bn).

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Economic

Stocks

Market sentiments cools slightly following Trump-induced rally

The new week brought some slight consolidation in Wall Street following a Trump-induced surge, but there seems little in the way to stop the broader upward trend for now. US election uncertainties are clearing, the rising prospects of a ‘Red Wave’ may support easier deregulation passthrough and higher fiscal spending, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on its path for gradual rate cuts, while US economic conditions continue to surprise on the upside. The US economic surprise index is now at its highest level since April this year. Not to mention that year-end seasonality tends to be in favour of taking on risks.

What to expect for the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data?

This week will bring US CPI data in focus. Expectations are for US headline inflation to edge to 2.6%, up from the 2.4% prior. The core aspect is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Month-on-month, headline and core CPI are expected to stay unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

Before the next Fed meeting on 18 December, policymakers will have November job report and two consumer inflation data to digest beforehand. With September core inflation ticking higher to 3.3% (its first uptick since April 2023), another month of uptick above the 3.4% level in the October’s read may likely question how much room the Fed truly have in terms of rate cuts.

Amid ongoing concerns around the inflationary effects that Trump’s policies may bring, any higher-than-expected read in the US CPI could call for some paring in dovish bets, which may offer further boost to the US dollar. Currently, markets are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point (bp) cut in December with a 85% probability, in line with what policymakers have previously guided for, hence any signs of persistence in pricing pressures may likely call for some recalibration.

S&P 500: Clearing of US election risks triggers risk-on mood

The clearing of US election risks helped to fuel a risk-on mood in Wall Street, as market positioning rushes to mirror the Trump trade seen in 2016, which means being long on financials, technology, energy and particularly, small caps as the beneficiaries for Trump’s “made in America” agenda. The S&P 500 punched to a new record high, with a broad rising channel pattern in place.

Sentiment indicators do not seem to scream for overextended levels just yet, looking at the AAII bull-bear spread, NAAIM exposure index and CNN Fear & Greed index. Ahead, the 6,168 level may be on watch next, where the upper channel trendline resistance stands, while immediate support may be at the 5,873 level.

Levels:

R2: 6,168;

R1: 6,000.

S1: 5,873;

S2: 5,674.

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_1

Sector performance

A risk-on environment fuelled by Trump 2.0 prospects has seen broad-based gains across all S&P 500 sectors last week, with the broader index up 5.1%. The consumer discretionary sector (+12.1%) was the outperformer, with Tesla’s 44% weekly gain offering much of the boost, alongside Amazon’s 5.7%. Financials (+7.8%) registered strong outperformance as well, with a less dovish Fed’s rate outlook from Trump 2.0 directly supporting room for net interest margin expansion ahead. Trump’s focus on “Made in America” onshoring and likelihood of strong infrastructure spending with a potential ‘Red Wave’ has given industrials a strong boost too, with the sector gaining 6.9%. All Magnificent Seven stocks closed higher for the week. Apart from Tesla’s 44% surge, Nvidia was up 6.8% to touch a new record high, while Alphabet was up 6.6%. S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_2

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_2

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_3

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_4

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_5

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FxPro

Economic

Market Picture

The total capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market approached $3 trillion, rewriting the record set almost exactly three years ago. During the day, the indicator grew by more than 8%. The nature of the movement indicates the liquidation of short positions in the largest coins, primarily bitcoin. At the same time, individual altcoins are increasingly shooting up.

The first cryptocurrency soared almost 10% in 24 hours, coming close to $90K, although only a little over a day ago, it tried to consolidate at $80K. Reaching the $100-110K target area now looks like a matter of a couple of weeks or even days.

Dogecoin is even more actively destroying sceptics with open positions. In 24 hours, it soared 44% to $0.4. It traded sustainably higher for only 15 days in May 2021. This area was pivotal in April and June that year, so it’s worth paying extra attention to it this time around as well.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global crypto fund investments rose by $1.978bn last week after inflows of $2.177bn previously. The positive trend continued for the fifth consecutive week. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $1.796bn, Ethereum by $157m, and Solana by $4m. Investments in funds with multiple crypto assets increased by $23m.

Inflows into crypto-ETFs since the beginning of the year reached $31.3bn. Due to price growth, global assets under management reached a new all-time high of $116bn. Trading volumes rose to their highest level since April. The combination of a favourable macroeconomic environment (Fed rate cuts) and seismic shifts in the US political system (after Trump’s victory) are likely reasons for such favourable investor sentiment, CoinShares suggests.

According to founder Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy bought an additional 27,200 BTC between 31 October and 10 November for $2.03 billion (at ~$74,463 per coin). The firm now holds 279,420 BTC, acquired for $11.9bn at an average exchange rate of $42,692.

MN Consultancy head Michael van de Poppe said that the much-anticipated altcoin season has begun in the background of Bitcoin’s new all-time highs. He described Ethereum’s rise in recent days as impressive. The altcoin bull cycle could last until 2026 or 2027 and transform into a full-blown Supercycle.

In the past few days, the bankrupt FTX has filed 23 lawsuits against various companies and individuals to recover funds from creditors. In the lawsuit against Binance, FTX’s lawyers are demanding the return of $1.8bn paid as part of a share buyback in 2021.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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JPMorgan

Economic

Progress on disinflation and recent employment data supported the decision to move toward a more neutral policy stance, although possible robust incoming economic data or fiscal policy shifts could decelerate the pace of future cuts.

The statement language was tweaked but remained largely consistent in messaging:

“Job gains have slowed” was changed to “Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased” likely in reference to oscillating monthly payroll figures and declining job openings.The word “further” was removed in the line “Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective” as disinflationary progress has somewhat plateaued above 2% with the latest CPI report coming in slightly above expectations.The phrase “has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” was also removed, an omission that Powell justified since this “confidence” was a condition required to commence an easing cycle that has now begun.Finally, the phrase “In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks” became a pithier “In support of its goals” likely reducing the emphasis on inflation alone as labor market data comes to the fore.

In the press conference, Chair Powell tried to evade political questions and redirect prognosticating on the December rate decision. Powell did not want to comment on the contribution of the fiscal backdrop to the recent rise in yields, but he did note that while the election has no near-term impact on monetary policy decisions, fiscal policy shifts could be factored in over time.

Looking ahead to December, Powell also commented that now is not an appropriate time for forward guidance given the high level of uncertainty. Markets are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate cut in December, although forthcoming inflation and labor market data will be the key determinants. Beyond December, the Committee could be put in an increasingly difficult position if possible future tariff and tax policies reignite inflationary pressures. However, Powell noted that the Committee is prepared to adjust the pace and destination of future cuts.

In response to the rate decision, 10-year Treasury yields continued to slide while equities rallied. As the dust settles on the election, investors ought to focus not on policy uncertainty but rather economic realities: disinflation, above-trend growth, a healthy labor market, and solid earnings growth, all of which should be supportive for equities. Fed cuts should translate to falling yields, but the recent rise in yields provides attractive income and presents a compelling entry point for bonds. How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?_1

How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?_1

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What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders

Trump’s Victory and a “Red Wave” Congress: The Impact on USD

Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus Boosts USD Demand

Assertive Trade Policies Reinforce USD Strength

Elevated Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Response

Strategic EUR/USD Positioning in 2025

Short-Term (Year End 2024)

Medium to Long-Term (H1 2025)

Chart-Based Strategy Insights for 2025

Trading EUR/USD in a Post-2024 Trump Landscape

UK Jobs Market in Spotlight After Reeves’s Tax Rises on Employers

Source: TheGuardian

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies

USD Outlook: The Role of Domestic Policies and Global Trade Dynamics

EUR Outlook: Economic Pressures and Policy Challenges for the Euro

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?

Focusing on shares over volume

Share of the US in total exports of goods

Nordic countries have significant exports to the US

Swedish PM acknowledges possible "severe impact on Swedish exports"

Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape

The US is the top destination for British exports

Source: Euronews

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI

Market sentiments cools slightly following Trump-induced rally

What to expect for the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data?

S&P 500: Clearing of US election risks triggers risk-on mood

Levels:

Sector performance

Crypto Punishes Sceptics

Market Picture

News Background

How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?

Risk Disclosure