"Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running

Economic

Summary:

ABS confirms wage price index rose an annual rate of 3.5% in September quarter, bringing some relief to households battling cost of living pressures.

Australians’ wages have increased faster than inflation for a fourth quarter in a row, bringing some relief to households battling with cost-of-living pressures.

The wage price index rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in the September quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That result compared with a pace of 3.6% expected by economists and the 4.1% rate reported by the ABS for the June quarter. Annual headline consumer inflation was 2.8% for the July-September period. "Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running_1

"Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running_1

On a quarterly basis, the WPI was up 0.8%, compared with market expectations of a 0.9% increase and the June quarter’s 0.8% advance. Quarterly CPI was just 0.2%.

The easing in wage price increases was roughly matched across both the public and private sectors. Public sector employees saw their wages rise a seasonally adjusted 3.7%, the lowest annual rate since the September quarter of 2022.For the private sector, where about four in five people are employed, wages were up 3.5%, or matching the annual increase in the September quarter of 2023.

Inflation expectations can be self-fulfilling. Here’s why that matters for AustraliaRead more

The latest wage increase marks a year of rises after adjusting for inflation. While welcome, the gain will only partly claw back some of the retreat when prices took off much faster than wages in late 2022 into 2023.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will home that real wage increases don’t stoke inflation, meaning interest rates would have to stay high for longer. Prior to Wednesday’s data, investors weren’t fully pricing in a cut to the cash rate until July.

National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey, released on Tuesday, though, found that labour cost growth has continued to ease, dropping from a quarterly pace of 1.9% in the three months to September to 1.4% in the three months to October.

The RBA will likely be content that wage increases are continuing to ebb, albeit at a slower pace than headline inflation. Employer-worker wage agreements tend to make wage increases a lagging indicator in the economy, particularly with the jobless rate close to the lowest in half a century.

Stocks pared some of their losses in midday trading on Wednesday, in a modest sign investors were a bit more hopeful of a near-term interest rate cut. The Australian dollar was little changed, hovering a bit above 65.2 US cents. "Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running_2

"Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running_2

“Wage rises for many jobs can be directly or indirectly linked to the outcomes of the Fair Work Commission Annual Wage Review decision,” said Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at ABS.

That decision resulted in a 3.75% wage increase 1 July 2024, or two percentage points lower than for the same quarter of 2023, Marquardt said.

‘Worst of a bad bunch’: Choice names NIB and Meta among worst Australian products and services of the yearRead more

The ABS noted the proportion of jobs reporting a wage change was similar for the quarter – at about 45% – from the same period a year ago. The average size of hourly wage changes, though, was lower at 3.7% from 5.4% in the September quarter of 2023.

Jim Chalmers welcomed the four quarters of real wage gains, with the treasurer describing the data as “very, very encouraging”.

"Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running_3

“Real wages growth is one of the things I focus most on,” Chalmers said. “I read a lot of stuff over a period of time that said you couldn’t have strong wages growth and have inflation moderating. We’ve shown that’s possible. We’ve shown it’s happening.”

“There is not a whiff of a wage-price spiral in our economy, and that’s a good thing,” he said, adding “we’ve got a lot of ground to make up”.

Catherine Birch, a senior ANZ economist, said wage growth had slowed across awards, enterprise bargaining agreements and individual arrangements.

“This may give the RBA more confidence that wages growth is returning to a pace consistent with its inflation target band, in the face of continued weakness in productivity growth,” Birch said.

The ANZ continues to forecast the RBA’s first rate reduction will land in February, although “the risks remain tilted towards a later start to cuts … given the slow pace of disinflation and labour market resilience”.

The ABS will release October labour market data on Thursday.

Source:TheGuardian

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Economic

Forex

Looking at recent moves in major currency pairs, it’s clear that market participants have come to terms with Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and are starting to prepare for changes to the global economic landscape. Among the new president’s campaign promises was the introduction of additional tariffs on imports to the U.S. For instance, Trump has proposed around a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and a range of 10% to 20% for goods from European nations. Unsurprisingly, the prospect of potential trade wars is impacting the pricing of pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/USD

The Euro has been in decline for the second consecutive week. Yesterday, it hit a new yearly low near 1.0600 but found support at 1.0590, bouncing slightly. If the 1.0600-1.0580 range turns into resistance, the pair may test the lows seen in 2023, around 1.0520-1.0460. A sustained upward move is likely only if the pair firmly clears 1.0730-1.0680.

The following news could significantly influence EUR/USD pricing:

Today at 11:00 (GMT +3), a European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy

Today at 13:30 (GMT +3), Germany’s 10-year treasury bond auction

Today at 16:30 (GMT +3), release of the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI)

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP/USD sellers broke through a critical support range at 1.2830-1.2800, with the price declining to 1.2720 before correcting to 1.2760. The price’s behavior around the 1.2800-1.2760 range will be key for identifying the next trend. A rejection at this level may lead to further declines towards 1.2720-1.2700, while a break above 1.2800 could signal the start of an upward correction.

Key events that could affect GBP/USD today:

12:45 (GMT +3) – Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann

13:00 (GMT +3) – Release of data on the sale of 4-year treasury securities in the UK

21:30 (GMT +3) – Speech by Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Schmid

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FOREX.com

Economic

Forex

EUR/USD falls ahead of US inflation data

EUR/USD is falling for a fourth straight day, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and attention turns to US inflation data.

US CPI is expected to rise to 2.6% YoY in October, up from 2.4% in September, and core inflation is expected to remain sticky at 3.3%. Hotter-than-expected inflation could see the market rein in Fed rate cut expectations further.

The U.S. dollar has rallied following Trump's victory on expectations that the Fed will need to cut rates at a more gradual pace owing to the new President’s inflationary policies. The market is pricing in a 60% probability of a December rate cut down from 80% prior to the election.

The EUR has fallen sharply since Donald Trump's victory, fueled by fears over the impact of trade tariffs on already fragile eurozone growth. Tariffs could knock growth off course and force the ECB to cut interest rates more aggressively.

Yesterday, German ZEW economic sentiment was weaker than expected amid rising concerns over Trump's trade tariffs and political uncertainty in Germany.

The eurozone economic calendar is quiet today. Attention will turn to tomorrow's GDP figures for more insight into the health of the region's economy.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

After failing at the 100 SMA, EUR/USD has rebounded lower, breaking below several key supports, including the 200 SMA, to test 1.06, the April low.

Sellers will look to extend the bearish trend by taking out the 1.006 support, opening the door to the 1.05 round number and 1.0450, the 2023 low.

Any recovery in the price would need to rise above 1.0670, the June low, and retake 1.07 to extend gains towards 1.08. A rise above her negates the near-term uptrend.

FTSE inches cautiously higher from a 3-month low

UK stocks are inching higher after closing at a three-month low on Tuesday, as investors looked cautiously ahead to US inflation data.

The FTSE has struggled since Trump's victory, trading lower in five of the past six trading days as investors consider the likelihood of President-elect Trump imposing tariffs and adopting a tougher stance on Europe and China.

Meanwhile, data yesterday showed that UK wages accelerated more than expected in September, although the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly, which leaves the Bank of England in a difficult position as it considers whether to cut interest rates in December. Comments by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, he considered wage growth still too strong, which means that a February rate cut is more likely than a December move.

Attention is turning to US inflation later today. Weaker US inflation could see the market price in a higher chance of the Fed cutting rates in December, which would be positive for stocks.

The UK economic calendar is quiet today. UK GDP and retail sales are due later in the week.

In corporate news, Smith Group shares jumped by 21% to a record high after the company lifted its revenue and margin forecasts amid strong growth across all divisions and started its shareholder buyback programme.

Experience shares traded lower despite solid guidance, potentially owing to a weak than expected recovery in its Latin American broker-to-broker business.

FTSE forecast - technical analysis

The FTSE has broken out of the familiar range of 8150 – 8325, within which it has been trading since May. It has formed a series of lower lows and lower highs and has also broken below the 200 SMA for the first time this year as the price heads toward 8000. The 50 SMA is crossing below the 50 SMA in a bearish signal.

Should sellers take out the 8000 support, this opens the door 7910, the August 5 low.

On the upside, resistance can be seen at 8120, the 200 SMA and 8150. Above here 8250, the 100 SMA comes into play. EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two Trades to Watch_2

EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two Trades to Watch_2

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SAXO

Economic

Macro data and headlines:

President-elect Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will head a new Department of Government Efficiency that will be given the task to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies.”Germany will have an election on February 23 after the government presumably fails a confidence vote next month.

Equities

U.S. – The rally in U.S. equities took a pause, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.29%, marking its first decline since the election-driven surge. Tesla's momentum cooled, retreating by 6% after its extended rally, while Shopify jumped 21% on better-than-expected earnings, with net income doubling to $344 million on revenue of $2.16 billion. SEA Limited also saw a 10.4% gain after reporting a second consecutive profitable quarter, surpassing estimates with $153 million in net income.

Asia – Asian markets mostly edged down on Wednesday, as investors reassessed risk ahead of U.S. inflation data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 2.8%, hitting a six-week low after disappointing October credit data from China, which fell to a 15-year low. Concerns are mounting over Trump's potential hawkish appointments, raising fears of increased tariffs. China's market showed some resilience with the Shanghai Composite flat and the CSI 300 index slightly positive, buoyed by reports that Beijing may consider reducing home-buying taxes.

Europe – European stocks experienced a pullback yesterday as concerns grew around Trump’s cabinet picks and potential impacts on Sino-European trade relations. The DAX fell over 2% as Germany grapples with political uncertainty, further exacerbated by the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator’s unexpected drop, with the Present Situation portion of that indicator sitting at a fresh post-pandemic low. In France, the CAC 40 shed 2.7%, reaching a three-month low, largely led by losses in luxury stocks due to renewed doubts about China's economic stimulus. Key European stocks, including luxury and tech sectors, posted broad declines amid this cautious sentiment.

Volatility

Volatility remains a focal point as markets brace for the U.S. CPI release. While the VIX continues to trend lower overall, indicating an easing of election-related anxiety, short-term volatility measures, such as the VIX1D, are showing slight increases. VIX futures also reflect a rise, underscoring market caution ahead of today’s CPI numbers. Additionally, both the Put/Call Ratio for equities and indices have ticked higher, with the equity PCC at 0.841 and index PCCI at 1.103, suggesting an increase in hedging activity as investors seek protection against potential inflation surprises that could disrupt recent gains.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasuries declined yesterday, with yields rising by 8 to 14 basis points in a bear steepening move, led by intermediate maturities. This sell-off was driven by a growing slate of new corporate bond issuances totalling $30 billion and followed renewed pressure from investors digesting the impact of Donald Trump’s election. The 10-year yield reached around 4.435%. European sovereign bonds also saw a bear flattening, with UK gilts underperforming Bunds but outperforming U.S. Treasuries as real rates rose on bets tied to Trump trade strategies. UK 10-year real yields rose 7 basis points, and traders scaled back BOE rate cut expectations. Today, the focus shifts to U.S. CPI data, with headline inflation expected to rebound to 2.6% from 2.4%, while core year-over-year inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 3.3%.

Commodities

Gold found support below the key 2,600 level but has not shown much bounce yet after tumbling from its 2,790 top. The next important technical area to the downside is near 2,475. Elsewhere, silver rallied before hitting the important USD 30 per ounce level. Crude oil prices remain heavy near post-election lows as the market mulls declining OPEC demand forecasts for this year and next and whether US president-elect Trump’s policies will bring fresh US supply online. The 70-dollar area in Brent and 65-dollar area in WTI crude are significant price lows.

Currencies

The USD posted new local highs against most major currencies yesterday, likely as US treasury yields marched back higher on the anticipated impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s policies. EURUSD traded briefly below the significant 1.0600 level and thus the lowest level of the year, while USDJPY rose above 155.00 for the first time since late July, just before the Bank of Japan’s surprisingly large rate hike. Today is a significant test for this USD surge on the US October CPI release. Elsewhere, sterling stumbled badly, likely as UK gilt yields followed US treasury yields higher, aggravating concerns on whether the Labour government’s new heavy spending ambitions are going to far and will spark volatility in the gilt market.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

London stocks nudged higher in early trade on Wednesday, steadying after heavy losses in the previous session, but with gains muted ahead of the latest US inflation reading.

At 0830 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up just 0.1% at 8,032.97.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "There’s some relief for the FTSE 100, with the index making gains in early trade after a disappointing start to the week. However, it’s still hovering around three-month lows as concerns linger about global growth. China’s economy continues to be a worry, with the authorities’ attempts to inject the economy with stimulus seen as underwhelming.

"The impact of a second Trump term and its implications for global trade is also being mulled over. Brent Crude is trading close to two-week lows, as investors digest OPEC’s re-assessment of demand for energy across the world next year. The hot enthusiasm which powered Wall Street higher following Trump’s re-election has cooled off. Investors are assessing the realities of governing for Trump’s second term, while the control of the House of Representatives is yet to be decided, with critical votes still being counted."

On the macro front, all eyes will be on the US consumer price index for October, which is due at 1330 GMT.

Streeter said: "The CPI report is expected to show an uptick in price pressures, bumping the annual rate back to 2.6% for October. Although the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the Core PCE reading, from the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, todays data is still expected to indicate how stubborn inflation might prove to be.

"It’s particularly pertinent given concerns that Trump’s tariff policies will be inflationary, increasing costs for American consumers, so if prices are already looking unruly, expectations will rise for Trump’s threats to be watered down."

In equity markets, Smiths Group jumped to the top of the FTSE 100 as it raised its growth and margin guidance and beefed up its share buyback programme after an "outstanding" first quarter.

Flutter Entertainment was a high riser as it slightly lifted its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. Ladbrokes owner Entain also gained.

SSE was in the black as it posted a rise in half-year earnings and said its long-standing chief executive was standing down. SSE posted adjusted operating profits of £860.2m in the six months to September end, up on last year’s £693.2m. On a reported basis, operating profit rose 40% to £902.8m.

Weapons maker Babcock surged as it reported a sharp jump in half-year profits and held annual guidance as geopolitical tensions increased demand from governments for military hardware.

Trainline advanced on the back of an upbeat 'Tempus' column in The Times.

Just Eat Takeaway shot up after agreeing to sell US business Grubhub to Wonder Group for $650m.

On the downside, Intermediate Capital and Experian were both weaker after results.

Source: Sharecast

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ING

Economic

Forex

USD: Inflation may stay too hot

The second round of post-election Trump trades has now taken the DXY dollar index to the 2022 highs as markets sink their teeth into the dual narrative of a wider rate and growth gap between the US and other developed countries. The latest news on the government appointment side is that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a “department of government efficiency”, which aims to slash bureaucracy and spending. It is too early to tell what this will effectively mean for public finances, but this confirms that Musk will play a key advisory role in the Trump administration, which likely fuels expectations for de-regulation and looser taxation.

The strong dollar is currently pricing in a good deal of Trump’s policy mix, and data releases/dovish Fed comments might offer good opportunities to take profit in bullish dollar positions. However, our house view for today’s US inflation report is that core CPI kept rising at a consensus 0.3% MoM in October, and headline CPI at 0.2%. This is above the 0.17%MoM rate that needs to be averaged over time to hit the 2% inflation target, and should keep markets on the dovish side of the pricing for the Fed.

Still, pricing is already quite cautious on further Fed easing, with only 15bp priced in for December and 23bp by January. This means there is probably an asymmetric downside risk for the dollar today in case of a slightly lower-than-expected core CPI print. There are also a few Fed speakers to monitor today: Kashkari, Williams, Musalem and Schmid.

If we are right with our CPI call, then the dollar rally could find a bit more steam and DXY consolidate above 106. Nevertheless, the recent bullish move is starting to look a bit stretched, and the risk of a positioning-led short-term USD correction similar to the 7 November one is quite high.

EUR: 1.06 is in line with rate gap

EUR/USD has remained under intense pressure from a broad USD rally and may well make a move below 1.06 today if the US core CPI comes in at 0.3% MoM. Despite the size of the recent EUR/USD drop, we must note that 1.060 is the short-term fair value level implied by short-term rate differentials. The USD:EUR two-year swap rate gap has continued to widen rapidly, and is currently around 185bp.

In other words, there is not much additional risk premium being added to EUR/USD compared to what rates are suggesting, as markets are doubling down on expectations that the ECB will slash rates more than the Fed ahead of the tariff impact on growth.

We are, by all means, in the dovish camp with our ECB call, and actually think markets are still underpricing (30bp) the chances of a 50bp cut in December.

The eurozone calendar is quite quiet today and US news will drive EUR/USD. A stretched positioning argues for some short-term upward correction in the pair, but as per the USD section above, we don’t expect this to happen today given a still-hot US CPI. Regardless of short-term adjustments, the direction of travel is bearish for EUR/USD, in our view, and we target 1.04 for year-end.

GBP: Eyes on Mann today

The main event in sterling markets today is a speech by Bank of England’s Catherine Mann, the most hawkish member of the MPC. Markets will be attentive to any comments about the implications of the recent budget for monetary policy and any colour on the latest jobs/wage figures. Given her arch-hawkish stance, we suspect she could stress – if anything – the inflationary aspect of the government’s spending boost and perhaps focus more on the sticky wage figure rather than the rise in the unemployment rate in September.

Ultimately, the GBP curve does not need many more hawkish hints to move at this stage. Markets are pricing little to no chance of a cut in December, and only 50bp in total by September 2025. In our view, the risks remain skewed towards a dovish repricing and consequent negative impact on sterling, although a repricing lower in rates may take some time to materialise as markets will tread carefully when assessing the inflationary implications of the budget. The soft momentum for the EUR means EUR/GBP could remain close to the 0.8300 gravity line.

CEE: Stronger dollar pulls CEE down further

The market has almost ignored the inflation numbers over the last two days within the CEE region and the global story seems to be in the spotlight still.

Today will not be much different. The calendar offers current account numbers for September in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania. Those produced a positive surprise last month in the Czech Republic and a negative one in Poland, which the market could watch this time around to see if it was a one-off or a trend reversal.

However, the main story remains the declining EUR/USD which should keep pressure on the CEE currencies. We remain bearish here. If anything we see PLN outperforming the region but perhaps later rather than sooner, however yesterday EUR/PLN bounced off 4.360 which seems like a key level. While HUF seems like a separate story now PLN/CZK may get the market's attention given the bounce back from 5.800 which seems like a limit to PLN's weakness here and could get some support.

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ING

Economic

Markets turning more hawkish on the Fed

US rates are moving higher, and this might be the path of least resistance in the coming days, given Trump's victory and the potentially hotter CPI and PPI figures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Markets are continuing to pare back their Fed rate easing expectations. A cut in December is just about a 50/50 probability event in the eyes of the market. The SOFR futures strip bottoms out just above 3.80% and only around late-2026 to mid-2027. The broader Treasury curve, ie, 2s10s has resteepened somewhat, also driven by resuming issuance activities of the wider market.

Overall we are still in a bit of limbo in terms of the timing and impact of Trump's policies. This state where we move from pricing promises to looking at actual policies might last for some months, and in the meantime we think there is still a chance that data will sour and trigger a (temporary) leg lower in rates. But we need to see that cue from the data first.

Euro rates continue to diverge from the US

Looking at the eurozone, we see an ongoing divergence compared to the US. Following the disappointing ZEW reading, front-end rates pushed lower, including pricing for a potentially even larger 50bp cut by the European Central Bank in December.

The 2y ESTR OIS rate tested the downside and is now slightly below last week’s level, while the US 2y SOFR rates increased by 9bp after the Monday holiday. The EUR back end couldn’t fully escape the global trend of rising rates on Tuesday when the US markets reopened. The 10y ESTR OIS rate is now up by 1bp following Tuesday’s late rise, but the spread to SOFR has widened by 9bp to over 170bp – the widest since late 2019.

Where things start to get a little clearer is the timing of elections in Germany after the recent government turmoil – a confidence vote is now slated for 16 December with new elections expected to take place on 23 February. The 10Y Bund has already stabilised over the past few days at around 1-2bp above the 6m Euribor-based swap rate. While the above swaps levels are a first for Bunds, we have made the point before that when comparing to OIS – a largely risk-free rate expectations measure – the currently observed levels “merely” represent a return to the pre-QE situation of 2014.

Wednesday’s events and market view

The US CPI numbers will draw the most attention, with the core CPI expected to come in at a relatively hot 0.3% month-on-month. US CPI numbers triggered sharp global rate reactions over the summer, but more recently the focus has shifted to growth concerns. Later in the day, we have several Fed speakers, including Musalem from the St Louis Fed who will speak about the economy and monetary policy.

In terms of issuance, Italy will auction 3Y, 6Y, 8Y and 15Y BTPs for a total of €8.25bn. Germany has scheduled a 10Y Bund for €4bn, and Portugal a 10Y and 20Y OTs totalling €1.25bn. The UK will be auctioning £4bn of new 3Y Gilts.

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"Australians’ Wages Increase Faster Than Inflation for Fourth Quarter Running

Source:TheGuardian

Euro Hits Yearly Lows, Pound Dips Below 1.2800

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Macro data and headlines:

Equities

Volatility

Fixed Income

Commodities

Currencies

London Open: FTSE Nudges Up Ahead of US Inflation Reading

Source: Sharecast

FX Daily: CPI May Keep Dollar Going

USD: Inflation may stay too hot

EUR: 1.06 is in line with rate gap

GBP: Eyes on Mann today

CEE: Stronger dollar pulls CEE down further

Rates Spark: Another Hot US CPI Expected

Markets turning more hawkish on the Fed

Euro rates continue to diverge from the US

Wednesday’s events and market view

Risk Disclosure