Big Tech Earnings, US Jobs Data Highlight Busy Week for Markets

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

With the S&P 500 on pace for a solid week of gains, the U.S. benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.

A packed upcoming week for markets will test a U.S. stocks rebound, with investors focused on a wave of corporate results led by Apple and Microsoft, while the prospect of global trade developments threatens to cause volatility at any time.

The monthly U.S. employment report, data on first-quarter U.S. economic growth and an inflation update add to the potential market-sensitive events in the coming week, as investors weigh whether the recent strength suggests the worst of a tariff-induced equities tumble is over.

With the S&P 500 on pace for a solid week of gains, the U.S. benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.

Sentiment for equities has been lifted this week by signals of easing in the Trump administration's trade stance, including possible de-escalation with China. But the situation remains fluid and fresh developments on tariffs could undermine the market gains.

"There seems to be some potential for compromise on the tariff situation," which has supported the recent rally, said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

But stocks will remain sensitive to "the news flow that day," Mullaney said. "If it's positive on tariffs, the market goes up. If it's negative on tariffs, the market goes down."

Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after President Donald Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July. Trump's pullback came after his April 2 announcement of sweeping levies set off severe stock volatility and rattled the bond market.

Tariff uncertainty will be a critical topic for upcoming corporate reports.

About 180 S&P 500 companies representing over 40% of the index's market value are set to post quarterly results in the coming week, according to UBS. Chief among them are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms, four of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap tech and growth companies whose shares have faltered in 2025 after putting up massive gains the prior two years.

With over one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported, profits are on pace to beat expectations for the period. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, up from an estimate of an 8% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.

"People were expecting the worst, and that typically happens when markets retrench," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management in San Francisco. "But the numbers really haven't been that bad."

Still, some companies have pointed to challenges ahead. Consumer staples company Procter & Gamble, soda and snacks company PepsiCo and medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher all cut their annual profit forecasts.

Investors also will watch the extent to which the new global trade regime is hitting economic data, with broad concerns the new tariffs will drive up prices and slow growth.

Data in the coming week includes gross domestic product for the first quarter, and the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation reading.

The monthly U.S. jobs report, due on May 2, could provide the biggest test for markets. The labor market has demonstrated stability in recent months, and employment is expected to have climbed by 135,000 jobs in April, according to a Reuters poll.

But doubts about the economic outlook are being fueled by dour readings in consumer sentiment and other surveys, with investors eager to see if such troubling "soft data" will translate into weakness in reports seen as giving more concrete evidence about the economy.

"If the consumer is going to be the engine of ongoing growth in the U.S., it puts the burden of proof onto the jobs report," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

Paul Atkins’ first public event as chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was a crypto roundtable on Friday, where the new agency chief devoted his inaugural speech to assuring the industry that he'll continue to remake securities policy to favor digital assets innovation.

The agency and industry have been awaiting congressional action to establish crypto market-structure oversight that will likely set guardrails, and Atkins told an audience at the SEC's Washington headquarters that the regulator will work toward delivering "a rational, fit-for-purpose framework" for crypto.

However, in answer to a question from CoinDesk after his speech, Atkins indicated that the agency may be able to act to some degree during this wait for new laws.

"It's always good to have Congress' input, and if there's a statute to back up what we're doing, I think that's all the better," Atkins said. "But we have ample room to maneuver under existing rules and laws."

Atkins further suggested that he thinks the concept of special-purpose crypto broker dealers, a little-used registration most prominently represented by Prometheum, has been very successful and may need to be reconsidered, and he said the agency will look at whether custody rules need to be changed to "accommodate crypto assets and blockchain technology."

Atkins previously appeared at a swearing-in ceremony earlier this week in the White House, where Trump said "he's the perfect man to lead this agency" at a time when the digital assets sector needs regulatory clarity, and Atkins said a "top priority of my chairmanship will be to provide a firm regulatory foundation for digital assets." But Friday's event at the SEC's headquarters represented his first full-fledged engagement with the public.

The crypto sector has high hopes for Atkins, though his stand-in for the past few months — Commissioner Mark Uyeda — already took a number of decisive actions to reverse the regulator's earlier crypto reluctance under former Chair Gary Gensler. As interim chairman, Uyeda reversed or sidelined a number of crypto policy efforts pursued under Gensler and has abandoned most of the regulator's prominent enforcement actions targeting the industry.

Until now, industry expectations for Atkins' leadership were based on conjecture rooted in his experience advising and investing in digital assets firms, especially since his Senate confirmation hearing failed to explore his crypto views.

Atkins had served as an adviser to crypto entities such as the Digital Chamber and as a board member of tokenization firm Securitize, and his ties to Off the Chain Capital had previously linked him to its investment stakes in big crypto companies like Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Kraken.

Friday's roundtable was the third in a series the agency has held on crypto matters, this time focused on custody in the industry. Crypto custody has been a particularly dicey topic at the agency, which under Gensler's reign had sought to approve a policy demanding investment advisers put their clients' digital assets only with certain qualified custodians. Gensler had argued that the rule was meant to exclude most of the existing crypto platforms as suitable custodians, but the effort was put on ice.

Atkins was asked by reporters on the event's sidelines about President Trump's own crypto interests and whether Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP, will rob credibility from the White House on industry policy.

"I have no comment on any of that," Atkins said.

Source: Coindesk

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Manuel

Political

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

The European Union will do all it can to engage with the U.S. on trade and reduce the massive uncertainty that is weighing down the global economy, Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said on Friday, underscoring unity among the bloc's members.

"What we are trying to do in our engagement with the U.S. through the (European) Commission is try to identify ways in which we can reduce that uncertainty and find a way of reaching an agreement," Donohoe told Reuters during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.

The meetings have been dominated by a tsunami of tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, including a 10% tariff on most countries except China, Mexico and Canada. The import duties have upended the global trading system and are dampening growth.

The IMF on Tuesday slashed its economic forecasts for the U.S., China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. It forecast global growth of 2.8% for 2025, a cut of half a percentage point from its January forecast.

Donohoe said he was confident the EU would remain unified in its dealings with the U.S. EU Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis is due to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday.

On Wednesday, Dombrovskis stressed that the EU would prefer to reach a negotiated solution with the U.S. over trade but will respond with countermeasures if discussions do not lead to a solution.

"The trade competence is very clearly with the Commission," Donohoe said. "We will be supporting the Commission in their work and working hard to maintain unity and consensus in the Commission's work, which they are doing an excellent job in maintaining."

Donohoe said this week's meetings in Washington left no doubt about the risks facing the global economy.

"I'm walking away from these meetings with a clear sense of everything that is at stake and the risks that are there for jobs, for growth, for living standards all over the world," he said. "The meetings here ... reminded me of why we need to leave no stone unturned in the next few weeks and months to see how we can reduce that uncertainty."

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin continued to soar Friday morning, surging above $95,000 per coin as stocks remained mostly flat.

The biggest cryptocurrency by market cap was recently priced at $95,354, CoinGecko data shows, after rising by nearly 2% over a 24-hour period. In the past seven days, it has risen nearly 13%.

Bitcoin rose as high as $95,563 earlier Friday. That's the highest price recorded since February 24.

Bitcoin's jump comes after the coin took a hit earlier this month and traded below $75,000, following announcements from President Trump about his planned "reciprocal" global trade tariffs.

The stock market and other "risk-on" assets also took a beating and have since recovered—but Bitcoin has recovered more.

"Crypto's behavior the last few days has been different to stocks," GSR Research Analyst Carlos Guzman told Decrypt. "[Crypto investors] thought the worst of tariff news was over, and investors are buying back in," he added, noting that Bitcoin's narrative as a store-of-value asset is strengthening.

Bitcoin and other major crypto assets have in the past traded with U.S. equities—in particular, tech stocks.

The new Bitcoin ETFs have received huge amounts of cash from bullish investors: Since Monday, investors have pumped over $2.6 billion into the funds, data from Farside Investors shows.

Investors shorting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are having their positions closed due to the crypto market's rise. CoinGlass data shows that over the past day, nearly $300 million in positions have been liquidated, with shorts making up $193 million worth.

Of that number, almost $78 million were in Bitcoin short positions—speculators betting on the asset to drop in price.

Other major digital coins and tokens such as Solana, Dogecoin, and Ethereum have all risen significantly over a seven-day period. Solana was recently trading at $152, while Dogecoin was priced above $0.19. Ethereum, the second-biggest coin, was recently trading for $1,800.

Source: decrypt

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Adam

Forex

Economic

The dollar headed for its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday after China granted some tariff exemptions for U.S. imports, raising hopes that the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be closer to abating.

The U.S. currency has been whipsawed this week by conflicting signs for a thaw in the fraught relations between Washington and Beijing.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of their tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway. By Friday, a number of businesses that had been notified of the changes said China had granted some exemptions from its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and was asking companies to identify the goods that could be eligible.

Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said his administration was talking with China to strike a tariff deal and that Chinese President Xi Jinping has called him. Beijing, however, continues to dispute the U.S. characterization of the talks.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies , up around 0.2% on the day and set for a modest weekly gain, its first since the middle of March.

"I don't think that anything's necessarily much clearer now, but it does feel like there's no more ramping up. It feels like it's coming the other way and if anything, it seems to be heading more towards de-escalation than escalation," said City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta.

However, even with some exemptions in place, there was still not enough clarity over the bigger picture to fully reverse some of the investor flows out of the dollar, which has dropped 4% since Trump first announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2.

"We have seen this pull out of oversold territory. But it's definitely too early to be cracking open the champagne for the dollar recovery, we're not quite there yet," said Cincotta.

SAFE HAVENS DROOP

The dollar was up 0.82% on the day against the yen at 143.775 and was up 0.42% against the Swiss franc at 0.82985 francs.

The euro fell 0.24% to $1.1363, while the pound declined 0.12% to $1.332, even after surprisingly strong UK retail sales figures.

Trump had rocked the dollar at the start of the week, sending it spiralling lower against other major currencies with his threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. It then jumped back on Tuesday when the president said he never had any intention of replacing the central bank boss.

Washington has made some progress in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.

The Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said after meeting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that there were no talks on currency targets. Trump has accused Tokyo of weakening its currency to help its exporters.

Japan's chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who is also economy minister, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week.

"Even if reports are correct that there will be some easing of tariff rates, a hit to U.S. growth is still coming that will ensure volatility levels remain higher, equity markets are pressured to the downside and the global backdrop remains unfavourable for any sustained move higher in dollar/yen," said MUFG strategist Derek Halpenny.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday reiterated the central bank's commitment to raising interest rates if underlying inflation moved towards the 2% target as projected. But he repeated that policymakers needed to scrutinise the fallout from U.S. tariffs.

The BOJ is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its two-day meeting that ends on May 1.

Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York and Amanda Cooper in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Joe Bavier

Source : reuters

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Thomas

Central Bank

China–U.S. Trade War

Japan may have averted U.S. pressure for a stronger yen in bilateral finance talks on Thursday, but a closer look at officials' descriptions of the meeting suggests currencies and the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy may remain key factors in broader trade negotiations.

Speaking to reporters after his first face-to-face talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said they did not discuss exchange-rate targets or a framework to manage yen rates.

There was no accusation made by the U.S. that Japan was intentionally weakening the yen, according to a Japanese finance ministry official who accompanied Kato.

But Kato was tight-lipped on the details of the 50-minute meeting with Bessent, which was held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

When asked whether the U.S. made any specific requests to Japan, Kato said: "I can't comment because that goes straight into actual discussions." The U.S. Treasury Department had issued no statement about the Kato-Bessent meeting as of early Friday afternoon.

Still, there were some hints.

For one, Kato said Japan and the U.S. will continue close and constructive dialogue on exchange rates "in relation to the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations" - language some analysts saw as a sign Washington could make demands on the yen as part of broader trade talks.

The meeting preceded top Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa's scheduled visit to Washington next week for a second round of bilateral trade talks that may prove tortuous for the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump's focus on addressing the trade deficit, and his past remarks criticizing Japan for intentionally maintaining a weak yen, have fueled market expectations that Tokyo will face pressure to strengthen the yen's value against the dollar and give U.S. manufacturers a competitive advantage.

"President Trump strongly believes that Japan and China have been intentionally depreciating their currencies. There's little sign of him changing that view, so markets remain cautious," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

"If next week's trade negotiations between Akazawa and Bessent do not go well, Washington's attention could turn towards exchange rates again," he said.

BOJ RATE HIKES

Another key sign was Kato's remark that he explained to Bessent Japan's recent economic developments "including wage hikes." He added that in doing so, he also talked about Japan's "price developments."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Central Bank

Economic

US President Donald Trump has some well-known nemeses: illegal immigrants, low-flow showers and last, but definitely not least, the head of the US central bank.

Elevated by Trump to lead the Federal Reserve starting in 2018, Jerome Powell almost immediately found himself under fire - described on social media as a bonehead and questioned about reports that the president wanted him gone.

But however uncomfortable Powell might have been then, his position has only gotten worse.

Not only is he overseeing an economy where the risk of recession is rapidly rising, Trump has been flirting publicly with his removal, writing on social media last week: "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!"

Coming at a time when Trump has pushed to expand presidential power, while cowing political opponents and ploughing past judicial efforts to check his action, it has raised alarm that he is more serious about, and might be more able to, exert control over the Fed than during his first term.

The tensions cooled this week, when Trump, a day after a market slide that some analysts tied to the comments, denied to reporters that he ever had any intention of firing Powell.

It came amid other hints of de-escalation in Trump's economic rhetoric as his policies, especially trade tariffs, have faced rising political and business backlash.

But Trump did not offer much assurance that he would limit his interventions at the Fed, maintaining his right to have a view and noting that he might call Powell to discuss his concerns about the bank's interest rate policy.

Donald Kohn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, said the shift in tone appeared intended to calm financial markets but he did not think it marked the end of a fight over the Fed, an institution considered vital to the health of the world's largest economy.

"It's a testimony to the market's response," he said. "But I think it's way too soon to say that there's a stability there."

What is Trump's problem with Powell?

Trump's clash with the Fed is ostensibly rooted in differences over where the bank should fix its key interest rate, which plays an influential role shaping borrowing costs for credit cards, mortgages and other loans.

Lower rates make it easier to borrow and tend to deliver an economic boost. Higher interest rates dampen activity, helping to keep prices stable.

Trump, who cut his teeth professionally taking out loans as a property developer, has long confessed to liking a low interest rate policy.

He objected when the Fed raised rates in his first term and has been pushing Powell to cut them now, arguing that inflation has cooled and keeping rates too high could do unnecessary economic damage.

"There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," he wrote on social media earlier this week, referring to Powell.

A threat to Fed independence?

Trump is hardly the first politician to cast the bank as a scapegoat at a moment of economic turmoil - or to press for lower interest rates.

Nor is he alone in his criticism of Powell, who infamously initially dismissed post-pandemic price inflation as "transitory" and has been faulted for being too focused on backward-looking data.

His pressure on the bank, however, breaks with Washington tradition in recent decades of presidential deference to the Fed.

It has drawn comparisons to former President Richard Nixon, who pushed his Fed chairman to loosen its policies ahead of the 1972 election, moves later blamed for feeding the high-inflation, low-growth "stagflationary" dynamic of that decade.

The idea that Trump could exert control over the Fed elicits horror among many economists, who say history is littered with examples of countries where political interference at central banks led to spiralling prices and economic ruin.

Sarah Binder, professor at George Washington University and a scholar of the Federal Reserve, said confidence in Fed independence is key to maintaining market faith that inflation will be controlled.

If shaken, it could lead to higher borrowing costs for everyone, as investors demand higher interest rates for holding debt, she warned, noting that should the Fed eventually cut rates, it is likely to spark speculation about Trump's influence - regardless of how, if at all, it played into the decision.

"That's ultimately the problem. It is perceptions of independence that really matter and that's what the pernicious effects of the attacks are they do raise doubts about whether the Fed can be as stalwart as central bankers want to be," she said.

Can Trump fire Powell?

Joe Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, who served on the National Economic Council during Trump's first term, said he saw little need for Trump to dial back his attacks, noting that he was making a "very classic macro argument" about the bank's flaws.

"I'm completely on board with the president's sympathies or comments that the Fed has historically been late," he said, adding that he thought stock market falls had been driven primarily by questions about trade policy.

He said he believed that Fed officials would remain more responsive to financial conditions than the president, noting that, if anything, Trump's pressure could make it more hesitant to cut, lest it be perceived as being cowed.

"Ultimately the Fed is going to do what's prudent," he said. "The question is just the timing."

Powell, a longtime Washington lawyer whose term as chair is due to end next year, has maintained that he is unbothered - and uninfluenced - by the criticism and asserted that Trump does not have the legal authority to remove him.

But the strength of his position is a matter of legal debate.

By law, Fed governors can only be removed for cause, but it is unclear whether that protection extends to the role leading the board.

The administration has already taken steps to reduce the Fed's regulatory role and is engaged in a legal battle over expanding presidential authority over other government agencies set up with features, like for cause protections, intended to insulate them from partisan pressure.

Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer of the Washington-based investment advisory firm Potomac River Capital, who has worked with Prof Binder on Fed studies, noted that the tradition of Fed "independence" had evolved over time, often after political or economic crisis.

"Things that are given can be taken away," he said, hours before Trump appeared to back off.

Asked again for his thoughts a few days later, Mr Spindel wrote back just two words in reply: "Damage done."