BRICS Gears Up for Strategic Foreign Ministers’ Meeting as Brazil Drives 2025 Agenda

Economic

Summary:

In just five days, BRICS foreign ministers will convene in Rio de Janeiro to discuss strategic issues under Brazil’s 2025 chairmanship, including AI, climate change, health, and the institutional strengthening of the expanded bloc....

Brazil assumes leadership role amid expanded BRICS structure

On April 28–29, the foreign ministers of BRICS countries will gather in Rio de Janeiro for a pivotal summit focused on shaping the bloc’s strategic direction under Brazil’s rotating chairmanship. The meeting, followed by a high-level security dialogue in Brasília on April 30, signals a renewed momentum within the expanded BRICS framework, which now includes 11 member states after its significant enlargement in January 2024.

According to Russian Ambassador to Brazil Alexey Labetsky, Brazil has energetically embraced its leadership role, continuing the proactive trajectory initiated by Russia in 2024. Labetsky praised Brazil’s agenda alignment with Russia’s previous presidency, including the emphasis on key global concerns like health, artificial intelligence, climate change, and financial reform—fields where consensus among members is building.

Strategic themes and institutional ambitions in focus

In addition to the ministerial summit, a series of expert-level discussions are concurrently being held in Brasília, with themes spanning environmental protection and the ethical governance of AI technologies. These technical consultations are helping shape the groundwork for long-term cooperation, institutional resilience, and potentially the establishment of common BRICS regulatory frameworks.

One of the core objectives of Brazil’s chairmanship is to accelerate the institutional development of BRICS. As Ambassador Labetsky noted, Brazil has signaled a commitment to deepening the bloc’s cohesion following the precedent set by the Kazan Declaration in 2024. This includes improving coordination structures, policy alignment mechanisms, and advancing operational integration among both new and original members.

Post-expansion dynamics and geopolitical recalibration

The upcoming meetings come at a time of substantial change for the organization. Since the January 1 expansion that welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the BRICS grouping has further widened its network of strategic partners. Nations like Belarus, Bolivia, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan have joined as observers or dialogue partners, while Indonesia became a full member on January 6. Most recently, Nigeria was designated as the next formal partner, continuing the bloc’s southward and multipolar expansion.

This widening footprint has turned BRICS into a significant alternative platform for countries seeking multipolar engagement outside traditional Western-led institutions. It also brings growing internal diversity, which the April summits aim to reconcile through stronger institutional frameworks and a clearer policy agenda.

Security, diplomacy, and the pursuit of balance

The meeting on April 30 in Brasília, featuring senior officials responsible for national security, underscores the bloc’s intent to broaden its influence beyond economic coordination. As regional and global security challenges grow more complex—from AI governance to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe—BRICS is exploring how to collectively respond with more strategic coherence.

Previous meetings in February and March—featuring deputy foreign ministers and Middle East policy coordinators—have already laid the groundwork for coordinated geopolitical dialogue. The continuity and intensification of such exchanges reflect the group’s efforts to become a more structured diplomatic force.

As Brazil prepares to host back-to-back BRICS meetings in Rio de Janeiro and Brasília, the bloc stands at a strategic inflection point. The shift from symbolic expansion to substantive institutionalization requires a delicate balance of inclusivity, alignment, and governance capacity. Brazil’s leadership in 2025 could determine whether BRICS evolves into a more coherent geopolitical force or struggles under the weight of its expanded diversity. What unfolds at the Rio summit may mark the beginning of a new phase for the global South’s most prominent multilateral alliance.

Source: TASS

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Gerik

Bond

Strategic shift in UK debt issuance to counter fiscal strain

On April 23, the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) announced significant adjustments to the country’s government bond issuance strategy in response to a worsening fiscal outlook. The move follows fresh data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which revealed that the public sector borrowing requirement for fiscal year 2024–2025 had surged to £151.9 billion ($202.1 billion), exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March forecast by £14.6 billion.

The updated deficit figure amounts to 5.3% of GDP, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous fiscal year and ranking as the eighth-highest since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. The decision to restructure bond issuance reflects the government’s attempt to manage elevated borrowing needs while mitigating exposure to rising long-term interest rates.

Rebalancing toward shorter maturities to lower financing risk

In response to market pressures, the DMO is scaling back its long-term gilt issuance while expanding short-term debt sales. Specifically, net sales of Treasury bills for FY2025–2026 will increase by £5 billion to £10 billion. Meanwhile, total gilt issuance will slightly decline by £0.1 billion to £299.1 billion. Most notably, issuance of long-term gilts—defined as bonds with maturities over 15 years—will decrease by £10.4 billion, bringing the total to £29.8 billion. This will reduce long-term gilts to just 10% of all issuance, the lowest share in 35 years.

Conversely, short-term gilt issuance (3–7 years maturity) will be raised by £7 billion to £117.9 billion. Medium-term and index-linked gilt issuance will remain unchanged, while an additional £3.3 billion will be allocated to unallocated tranches, where maturity dates are to be confirmed based on market conditions.

This shift reflects a correlation, if not causation, between market interest rate volatility and issuance maturity strategy. By favoring shorter-term debt, the UK government is reducing its immediate interest rate exposure while retaining flexibility to adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Market response and macro-financial context

The realignment in bond strategy came amid easing long-term yields. On the same day as the announcement, the 30-year gilt yield dropped by 12 basis points to 5.24%, tracking movements in U.S. 30-year Treasury yields. This decline follows a recent peak of 5.649% on April 9, the highest since May 1998, triggered by a market reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcement imposing a 104% duty on Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, 5-year gilt yields remained stable at 3.98%, underscoring a divergence in investor sentiment between shorter and longer-term government securities. The inverse movements in yields across maturities highlight shifting risk premiums and inflation expectations, factors that heavily influence the government’s debt management strategy.

Balancing fiscal policy with market constraints

The UK’s strategy reveals an attempt to reconcile the tension between fiscal expansion and borrowing cost containment. While the surge in the fiscal deficit necessitates increased debt issuance, the government is selectively minimizing long-term borrowing to avoid locking in historically high yields over decades. This balancing act also underscores how global economic developments—such as U.S. trade actions and inflation fears—can indirectly impact UK sovereign debt markets.

By leaning on short-term debt instruments and adjusting issuance flexibility, the DMO is aiming to maintain market confidence while preserving optionality for future fiscal maneuvers. However, this approach also introduces rollover risks and future interest rate uncertainties, especially if inflation persists or monetary policy tightens.

The UK’s recalibration of bond issuance is a direct response to a deteriorating fiscal balance and heightened bond market volatility. By shifting toward short- and medium-term borrowing, the government is seeking to optimize its debt profile in a challenging macroeconomic environment. This approach, though prudent in the short term, also reflects broader systemic pressures—from fiscal overshoot to geopolitical trade shocks—that continue to test the resilience and adaptability of UK public finance strategy.

Source: Reuters

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Diana Wallace

Cryptocurrency

ARK Invest has updated its projection for Bitcoin, forecasting a staggering price target of around $2.4 million by the year 2030. This ambitious outlook is grounded in a detailed modeling framework that evaluates Bitcoin’s potential market share, trends in adoption, and supply characteristics, offering insights into the cryptocurrency’s possible trajectory.

What does the 2030 Bitcoin Target Entail?

This projected price implies an impressive annual compound growth rate of roughly 72% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2030. The report also details alternative scenarios, with a base case estimating Bitcoin at $1.2 million (53% CAGR) and a more pessimistic view placing it at $500,000 (32% CAGR).

How Does Institutional Investment Influence Bitcoin’s Value?

A key factor in the optimistic forecast is institutional investment, which ARK Invest identifies as crucial for Bitcoin’s growth. It is projected that approximately 6.5% of the global financial market portfolio, excluding gold, could be allocated to Bitcoin, laying the groundwork for this future valuation.

The report also explores Bitcoin’s potential as “digital gold,” suggesting it could provide a more flexible and transparent value storage option. If Bitcoin manages to capture 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market value, it could significantly boost the optimistic scenario.

● Emerging markets may drive demand as Bitcoin serves as a hedge against inflation.

● A projected 13.5% contribution to the $2.4 million target comes from a 6% market penetration rate.

● New developments in corporate treasuries and financial services could further enhance Bitcoin’s appeal.

● Active supply adjustments, including previously held or lost Bitcoins, could elevate price targets.

ARK Invest highlights that current valuation models fail to consider the scarcity of Bitcoin and its lost supply, suggesting there may be untapped potential in the market. The comprehensive analysis provided aims to shed light on Bitcoin’s evolving role within financial portfolios, offering valuable context for enthusiasts and stakeholders alike.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Fiona Harper

Daily News

Altman and Musk Outline Future AI Prospects

In a recent event, Sam Altman and Elon Musk provided their perspectives on the future of AI, emphasizing both opportunities and risks. Their comments are shaping industry narratives and public expectations about AI's capabilities.

Altman discussed his leadership at OpenAI, focusing on large language models. Musk, known for his AI ventures, reiterated the importance of AI safety, reflecting past dialogues and ongoing commitment.

Elon Musk, CEO, SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, – Frequently comments on AI safety and future risks relevant to the ongoing discussions.

AI Ethics Dialogue Ignites Academic Debate

The event sparked widespread discussion in academic and tech communities about AI's ethical implications. However, immediate market reactions remain subdued, with no significant changes in crypto asset prices.

Observers noted that while AI-themed tokens like AGIX and FET often react to news, direct market impacts were absent. Historical data shows past announcements triggering investor activity only alongside tangible product launches.

Speculative AI Tokens Struggle Without News

Historically, AI advancements such as ChatGPT-4 prompted debates but caused minimal market shifts. Speculative rallies in AI-themed tokens were seen previously but rarely sustain without accompanying developments.

Experts from Kanalcoin highlight current trends reflecting theoretical interests rather than market-driven responses. Continued advancements in AI systems might prompt future regulatory attention, according to analysts.

Source: CryptoSlate

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. South Africa's G20 Presidency warns of escalating trade friction

2. Canadian Finance Minister: Canada must combat U.S. tariffs

3. U.S. may reach understanding on trade with South Korea next week

4. ECB will consider adjustments to its monetary policy strategy to be more flexible in response to price shocks

5. Trump says he has set deadline for Russia-Ukraine issue, when U.S. attitude may change

6. Polling data indicates a tight race in Canada, with the Conservative Party narrowing the gap with the Liberal Party

7. Several major U.S. companies cut revenue estimates as uncertainty grows

8. Tokyo inflation rises to two-year high, supporting BOJ's rate hike stance

9. Lane: Trade shocks are unlikely to trigger recession

10. Waller: Higher tariffs would support lower rates if they lead to increased unemployment

11. U.S. March home sales record lowest for the same period since 2009

[News Details]

South Africa's G20 Presidency warns of escalating trade friction

The Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, representing the G-20 Presidency, has expressed grave concerns regarding the escalation of global trade tensions. "The acrimony has become so pronounced," stated Lesetja Kganyago following the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Washington. "This adversarial environment may preclude dialogue. Even if conciliatory gestures are extended, they may be overlooked due to the prevailing high tensions."

Canadian Finance Minister: Canada must combat U.S. tariffs

During a press conference at the G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Washington, D.C., on April 24, local time, Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne emphasized the necessity for Canada to counter U.S. tariffs, citing their impact on a significant volume of Canadian goods. Furthermore, he indicated that these tariffs could potentially fuel inflation and impede global economic expansion. François-Philippe affirmed the continued unity of the G7, while acknowledging existing tensions regarding U.S. tariff policies. He also mentioned recent interactions with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, and stated that further details on trade negotiations with the U.S. would be disclosed following the Canadian federal election.

U.S. may reach understanding on trade with South Korea next week

Following discussions between the U.S. and South Korea, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on Thursday that a trade "understanding" could be reached as early as next week. "Our bilateral discussions have been highly productive," Bessent stated to reporters during a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Norwegian Prime Minister in the Oval Office. "Progress may be more rapid than anticipated; we anticipate addressing technical aspects as early as next week, with a potential understanding to be reached by the end of the week."

ECB will consider adjustments to its monetary policy strategy to be more flexible in response to price shocks

Sources familiar with the matter indicate that the European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to consider adjustments to its monetary policy strategy, aiming for enhanced flexibility in addressing price shocks amidst the current volatile global environment. These anonymous sources suggest that members of the ECB's Governing Council will initiate in-depth discussions on the ongoing strategic review during an informal meeting in Porto, Portugal, scheduled for May 6-7. The rationale behind potential shifts in monetary policy strategies will be a key focus of these discussions. The meeting will involve a review of reports prepared by two working groups established for this assessment, as well as the Monetary Policy Committee, which comprises senior economists from the ECB and the central banks of the 20 Eurozone countries.

Trump says he has set deadline for Russia-Ukraine issue, when U.S. attitude may change

On April 24, local time, U.S. President Trump addressed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, stating that both Ukraine and Russia demonstrate a willingness for peace and must engage in negotiations. He also indicated a deadline concerning the situation, after which the U.S. stance would evolve.

However, on April 23rd, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov refuted that Trump had specified any date, deeming the establishment of a ceasefire deadline inappropriate. Addressing Russia's actions, Trump expressed disapproval of the attacks on Kyiv. When questioned about potential sanctions against Russia, Trump deferred, stating he would "rather answer that question in a week," but warned that if a resolution to the conflict could not be achieved, "things will happen," emphasizing the U.S.'s commitment to collaborating with Ukraine. Regarding the cession of Ukrainian territories, Trump stated that it would be contingent on the specific territories involved. Furthermore, Trump suggested that Russia is not the impediment to peace, asserting that the U.S. is exerting significant pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to advance the peace process.

Polling data indicates a tight race in Canada, with the Conservative Party narrowing the gap with the Liberal Party

Rolling polls released on Thursday reveal that the incumbent Liberal Party in Canada maintains a lead ahead of the upcoming general election, although the margin separating them from the trailing Conservative Party is diminishing. According to a CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll, the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Carney, holds 42.9% support, while the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, has 39.3%, and the New Democratic Party stands at 7.2%.

As of Wednesday, the difference between the two leading parties is 3.6 percentage points, a decrease from the 5.6-point lead the Liberals held over the Conservatives in the same poll conducted a day earlier. If these results hold until election day, the Liberals would secure a fourth consecutive term, but Carney might only secure a minority in the House of Commons, necessitating reliance on smaller parties for governance.

According to Paul Thomas, Professor Emeritus of Political Studies at the University of Manitoba, a potential surge in support for the Conservative Party could be attributed to a perceived de-escalation of recent threats from U.S. President Trump towards Canada. The focus on U.S. tariffs and Trump's rhetoric regarding the annexation of Canada has been a key concern for the current administration.

Thomas suggests that the sense of crisis may have diminished. He further posits that the electorate's focus may be shifting back to concerns about the cost of living, and Poilievre's moderated campaign tone could also be garnering voter support. Nanos Research polls indicate that Carney remains the preferred choice, though Poilievre is narrowing the gap.

Several major U.S. companies cut revenue estimates as uncertainty grows

Several prominent U.S. corporations have revised their revenue and profit forecasts due to the uncertainties stemming from the U.S. government's tariff policies, which are impacting both the American and global economies. As a bellwether for the consumer goods sector, Procter & Gamble (P&G) now anticipates that its total net sales for fiscal year 2025 will remain largely flat compared to the previous fiscal year, a significant adjustment from its earlier growth target of 2% to 4%.

Furthermore, consumer sentiment is deteriorating in the U.S., P&G's largest market, with the company observing a notable decrease in consumer spending during February and March. Despite exceeding expectations in its quarterly results announced on the 24, Hasbro, a global toy industry leader, issued a warning during its earnings call, indicating that the company could incur a US$300 million operational loss and a potential profit reduction of up to US$180 million in 2025 if the U.S. government maintains its current tariff policies.

PepsiCo lowered its annual profit outlook on the 24th, cautioning that the U.S. government's tariff policies would escalate the company's production costs and introduce further economic instability.

American Airlines also adjusted its financial projections for 2025 downward. According to American Airlines CEO Robert Isom, economic uncertainties in the U.S. could negatively affect discretionary spending, such as travel, impacting the airline's first-quarter performance and its outlook for the second quarter.

Tokyo inflation rises to two-year high, supporting BOJ's rate hike stance

Tokyo's inflation accelerated from the previous month, reaching a two-year high, thereby bolstering the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) stance on interest rate hikes. According to a report released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose 3.4% YoY in April, influenced by a combination of factors including last year's tuition fee reductions and the current rise in food and energy prices. The median forecast by economists was a 3.2% increase. Overall inflation rose to 3.5% from 2.9% in March. Inflation has consistently exceeded the BOJ's 2% target, and the national core inflation indicator rose to 3.2% in March. However, a series of tariff actions by the U.S. are increasing the growth risks faced globally, potentially making it difficult for the BOJ's policymakers, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, to proceed with interest rate hikes.

Lane: Trade shocks are unlikely to trigger recession

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Thursday that trade tensions are unlikely to trigger a recession in the Eurozone. He noted that while U.S. President Trump's tariff measures could potentially curb economic expansion, the 20-member Eurozone possesses alternative trading partners, thus averting an automatic economic downturn. During a Thursday interview, he remarked, "There is a downward revision, but it's crucial to highlight that it's only a slight adjustment, and the economy continues to grow."

Waller: Higher tariffs would support lower rates if they lead to increased unemployment

In a Thursday address, Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the reinstatement of substantial tariffs by a potential Trump administration could precipitate corporate layoffs, prompting his support for interest rate cuts to safeguard the labor market. However, the Federal Reserve anticipates a clearer understanding of the tariffs' economic impact only in the latter half of the year, suggesting no immediate alterations to the current monetary policy stance.

Given the delayed implementation of some of the most significant tariffs until the summer, I anticipate that substantive shifts in economic data will not be evident until after July. By the second half of this year, I believe we will have a more comprehensive grasp of the developments within the tariff landscape.

Should exceptionally high tariffs be reintroduced, I would not be surprised by an increase in layoffs and a marginal rise in unemployment. If the labor market were to deteriorate significantly, I would deem intervention necessary, considering the Federal Reserve's mandate to achieve maximum employment. While I do not foresee tariffs significantly impacting the economy before July, the persistence of high tariffs could lead to an increase in unemployment, potentially at an accelerated rate.

U.S. March home sales record lowest for the same period since 2009

According to the latest data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the housing market experienced a sluggish start this spring, with existing home sales plummeting 5.9% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, the lowest level for this period since the 2009 financial crisis, due to elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. The data reveals significant regional disparities within the U.S. housing market.

The Western region, characterized by the highest home prices nationwide, bore the brunt of the downturn, with home prices experiencing a sharp decline of over 9% month-over-month. Conversely, states in the Rocky Mountain region saw year-over-year growth, driven by robust employment figures. Nationwide, home prices decreased, and sales declined across all regions, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.4%. The data also indicates a surge in the inventory of homes for sale, reaching 1.33 million units, a year-over-year increase exceeding 20%. However, at the current sales pace, this inventory represents only a 4-month supply, while a balanced market typically requires a 6-month supply. Furthermore, the median existing-home price decreased, with the median sales price at US$403,700, although this marked a new high for March, the year-over-year increase narrowed to 2.7%, the smallest gain since August of the previous year.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 14:00 UK March Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales MoM

UTC+8 16:00 Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks

UTC+8 20:30 Canada February Retail Sales MoM

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Grace Montgomery

Cryptocurrency

Economic

According to a fresh report by crypto analytics firm Swissblock, BTC is currently grappling with a critical resistance zone between $94,000 and $95,000.

Swissblock analysts caution that unless Bitcoin decisively breaks through this level, a short-term correction may be likely.

“Bitcoin's next logical move could be a pullback to gain momentum for an authentic rise,” the firm stated.

The $94K–$95K zone is clearly the resistance to beat.

A pullback to gain momentum seems like the next logical move, but how far? The $89K–$90K zone could be next to test bulls, but with BTC's structure strength, these dips are for buying. $89K–$90K Seen as Key Support and Entry Zone. The analysis identifies the $89,000–$90,000 range as a potential support zone and buying opportunity if Bitcoin fails to push higher in the near term.

“The $94,000–$95,000 zone is clearly a resistance that needs to be overcome,” analysts wrote. “A pullback seems like the next logical move to gain more bullish momentum, but for how long?”

How to Invest in Bitcoin According to Former Goldman Sachs Executive?

Swissblock emphasized that Bitcoin’s overall structural strength remains intact, and any dips into support zones should be seen as strategic entry points for investors looking to accumulate.

Market Sentiment Still Cautious.

With global macro conditions and regulatory developments continuing to influence crypto markets, traders appear hesitant to declare a confirmed breakout. Volatility remains elevated, and short-term moves are being closely watched by institutional and retail participants alike.

Swissblock's outlook reinforces a measured bullish stance: While resistance remains a barrier, a temporary retreat may serve as a springboard for Bitcoin's next leg higher—provided that bulls defend key support levels.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Fiona Harper

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Cantor Fitzgerald's president is reportedly preparing to form a new consortium with SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex, aiming to capitalize on the burgeoning cryptocurrency sector during the Trump administration. This initiative is expected to enable the company and its collaborating firms to play a significant role in the acquisition of major crypto assets like Bitcoin.

The Cryptocurrency Consortium

This merger involves prominent financial entities, including SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex. It has been suggested that Brandon Lutnick, the son of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, will also participate in this project, although final decisions regarding its details and implementation have yet to be made.

The foundation of the soon-to-be-formed 21 Capital company was established following Cantor Equity Partners’ successful fundraising of $200 million in January. This vehicle will include a $3 billion contribution in Bitcoin, with Tether providing $1.5 billion, SoftBank contributing $900 million, and Bitfinex offering $600 million in crypto assets. It is noted that the invested Bitcoins will be valued at $10 per share, with a transaction value set at approximately $85,000 per Bitcoin.

Future Plans

The new consortium also aims to secure additional Bitcoins through a $350 million convertible bond and a $200 million private equity placement. This financial instrument will be inspired by MicroStrategy’s crypto asset strategy, with the goal of developing a successful model.

Sources indicate that the anticipated agreement is expected to be announced in the coming weeks, although the figures and conditions may change before reaching final clarity. Industry representatives involved in the project suggest that the process may lead to more crypto asset-focused strategies in the future.

This development, closely monitored in financial circles, is expected to provide significant insights into the future of cryptocurrency markets, with a prediction that investment models may diversify through similar strategies.

The proposed initiative could allow for alternative models in digital asset investment strategies, presenting new avenues for financing for various stakeholders.