China Rare Earths Issue Remains Unresolved, US Lawmaker Says

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

A U.S. delegation said the rare earths dispute with China remains unresolved, while talks also touched on TikTok’s U.S. spin-off, a possible Boeing deal, fentanyl, and China’s nuclear buildup.

The US-China dispute over Beijing’s control of rare earth supplies has yet to be resolved, the head of a visiting US congressional delegation said after meeting Chinese officials, signaling a key irritant persists in bilateral relations.

Representative Adam Smith described continuing challenges on the matter in a press briefing on Tuesday in the Chinese capital, where he’s leading the first official visit by US House lawmakers since 2019 as relations steady before a potential meeting between the countries’ presidents.

“I don’t think we resolved the rare earth question,” Smith said, without specifying what the sticking points are. “I think that that still needs to be worked on.”

China dominates the global supply and processing of the minerals, which are vital for everything from electric vehicles to advanced weaponry. Beijing has used its position as a strategic lever as trade tensions with the Trump administration escalated earlier this year.

The two governments reached a framework agreement in June that includes a Chinese commitment to review applications for shipping rare earth magnets, although few details of the deal have been disclosed. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week said supplies to his country had “bounced back up significantly,” although European companies have complained about shortages that threaten to halt production.

Smith also struck a note of caution in response to a reporter’s question about whether Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd. will have any role in maintaining the app’s algorithm in the US. Citing privacy and security concerns, he said the matter has “not been 100% resolved,” while adding that he wasn’t privy to the negotiations.

The US and China are nearing an agreement to hive off the US operations of social media platform TikTok to a consortium that includes software giant Oracle Corp. Under the spin-off arrangement being discussed, TikTok will be majority-owned and controlled by Americans, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. Many of the finer details of the agreement have yet to be made public.

Joined by US Ambassador to China David Perdue, the delegation’s visit may build more goodwill ahead of a possible sitdown between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month in South Korea.

The world’s two largest economies are in the final stages of negotiations for a “huge” Boeing Co. aircraft order, Perdue said at the briefing. Such a deal, which has been years in the making, would be the centerpiece of a trade agreement between the two nations but has been contingent on an easing in tensions.

On the security front, Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, urged Beijing to engage in talks over its “rapidly growing nuclear arsenal” to prevent miscalculation.

“When you’re getting up into the hundreds, close to 1,000 on nuclear weapons, it’s time to start having a conversation about it to make sure that we understand each other,” Smith said. He stressed the need for better military-to-military dialogue, a message he delivered in meetings with Chinese officials including Premier Li Qiang since the delegation arrived on Sunday.

During the trip, the US delegation has also discussed the flow of fentanyl and called for fair access to China’s market for US firms.

The group met with National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji and Foreign Minister Wang Yi later on Tuesday.

Wang praised the exchanges between the two heads of state for steadying relations and called on both sides to uphold them.

“Their conversations have set the tone and chartered the course for the bilateral relationship. In the recent period, this relationship has stabilized,” Wang said in his opening remarks. “This is not easy. We need to preserve this.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Devin

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there is “no risk-free path” for the central bank's next policy move as inflation remains elevated but the job market weakens.

It's "a challenging situation," Powell said during a speech in Rhode Island on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed must balance its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability.

"Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path,” he added.

Powell’s comments repeated many of the same points he made last Wednesday after the central bank voted to cut interest rates 25 basis points and officials penciled in a median estimate of two more 25 basis point cuts by year-end.

The chairman in in a difficult spot, trying to maintain consensus within the Fed at a time when policymakers are divided about the future path of monetary policy and the White House is applying maximum pressure on the Fed to bring rates down further.

Stephen Miran, the newest Federal Reserve governor, said Monday in a speech that he believes benchmark interest rates should be around two percentage points lower than their current 4% to 4.25% range. He argued that today’s rates are too restrictive and could lead to more layoffs and worsening unemployment levels.

Miran, who is on a leave of absence from his White House job while serving as the newest Fed governor, was the lone dissenter last week when the Fed voted to cut rates by a quarter point. He preferred a larger 50 basis point cut.

The Fed has a dual mandate to keep inflation in check while maximizing employment, and an economic environment where the labor market is weakening but inflation remains elevated leaves the Fed without a clear interest rate policy path.

Cutting rates can help spur hiring, but may fuel inflation further. Raising rates can help tamp down inflation, but comes with added risks for the job market.

While signs of a weakening labor market spurred the most recent cut, many Fed officials are urging caution around further rate cuts because inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, stands at 2.9%. A new reading covering August data will be released on Friday.

Powell reiterated that weakening employment shifted the balance of risks away from inflation and led to last week’s cut. He said he views the current policy stance as “modestly restrictive” and said Fed policy “is not on a preset course” and the central bank will continue to respond to new economic data, outlook changes, and the balance of risks.

Some Fed officials this week have reiterated their worries about inflation. St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said Monday he supported cutting interest rates last week as a “precautionary move” to guard against the risk of higher unemployment, but cautioned there is limited room for further rate cuts before risking a boost in inflation.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Monday that inflation concerns would make him hesitant to support another rate cut in October.

“I am concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time,” Bostic told the Journal. The Fed’s next meeting is Oct. 28-29.

The Fed needs to be "very cautious" in removing restrictive policy with inflation still above the central bank's 2% target, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added on Monday.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

The general line of thinking in markets this year has been that with Trump's erratic policies and tariffs, it is all serving to bite at the US economy and the dollar. I admit, even I have been sold on the narrative that a weaker dollar has been in part driven by a shake up in confidence and credibility to the currency in the past few months.

But besides the evidence we can see in FX flows, there's another story in the background that is worth taking notice of.

The latest Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July actually showed that foreign demand for US-denominated assets remain strong. That despite alleged concerns about tariffs and the administration's policy incoherence in handling many things, including the whole Fed ordeal.

Now, the monthly data hasn't quite yet captured the dovish pivot by the Fed itself but after the rate cut decision last week, it's not to say that the Fed has leaned overly dovish in any case.

So, let's take a look at what some of the TIC data is saying.

For one, foreign investors ended up with net purchases of long-term US securities worth $78.8 billion. The year-to-date figure shows net purchases worth $865.1 billion. For some context, the 2024 figure showed net purchases worth $1,180.4 billion. So, it's not to say that there has been a material slowing down in investor appetite for US assets.

The large chunk of those buying for July were in Treasury bonds/notes and corporate bonds/notes, amounting to $85.4 billion. That is partially offset by equity outflows on the month, which totaled to $16.2 billion. Now, are investors moving away from US stocks? Not quite.

The net outflow in July comes after record inflows during May and June, which amounted to $115.8 billion and $163.1 billion respectively. And we all know, one month doesn't make a trend.

Looking into more details, total foreign holdings of Treasuries also moved up to hit a record $9.2 trillion. And of note, EU holdings of US-denominated assets also hit a record of $8.9 trillion in July. (h/t @ Credit Argicole)

As such, that continues to underscore the strong appetite for US assets even during these supposed testing times for the dollar and the US economy.

So, what does this all tell us?

The dollar may be softer this year amid poor market sentiment and a confidence struggle in general. But if and when these headwinds come to pass, the underlying flows suggest that any potential rebound in the dollar is one that is going to carry a large weight supported by the still strong investor appetite for US assets.

And if anything else, this does shoot down the thinking that foreign investors are moving away from the dollar and the US. In fact, it's far from the reality as seen above.

Source: investinglive

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

Fed Chair Powell to Make First Comments Since Rate Cut By Vicky Ge Huang

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks on the U.S. economy Tuesday at an event hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, just one week after the central bank approved its first interest-rate cut of 2025. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran said Monday that steep rate cuts are needed, but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem signaled caution over supporting further easing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is looking at options to provide Argentina a financial lifeline as the country struggles to overhaul its economy. And Sweden's central bank on Tuesday made a quarter-point rate cut, citing the need for further support to economic activity and to stabilize inflation at the target in the medium term.

Top News Fed's Bostic Sees Little Reason to Cut Rates Further for Now

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation concerns would make him hesitant for now to declare support for cutting rates again in October, even though economic risks have shifted in recent months toward greater worries about employment.

Bostic said in an interview that he penciled in only one rate cut

for all of 2025 at the Federal Reserve's meeting last week. Because officials cut rates last week, that suggests Bostic doesn't currently anticipate the need for another reduction at either of the two meetings remaining this year.

"I am concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time," Bostic said. "And so I today would not be moving or in favor of it, but we'll see what happens." The Fed's next meeting is Oct. 28-29.

Transcript: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Discusses the Economic Outlook

St. Louis Fed's Musalem Cautious About Further Rate Cuts

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem voiced skepticism of further interest-rate cuts, pushing back on broad expectations in financial markets that the Fed will continue to ease borrowing costs this year. Speaking in Washington, D.C. at The Brookings Institution, a think tank, Musalem said that he supported last week's quarter-point rate cut because he believes risks to the labor market have increased. But with inflation nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed's 2% target, further cuts could mean excessive complacency about rising prices, Musalem said. "If the public begins to doubt that inflation will converge to 2%, the job of restoring price stability would be more difficult and potentially costly for the economy," Musalem said, according to a published text of his remarks. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Fed's Miran Argues Steep Rate Cuts Are Needed

In his first speech as a member of the central bank, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran argued that significant interest-rate cuts are needed

to avoid unnecessary damage to the labor market, backing demands from President Trump that the Fed pull rates sharply lower.

U.S. Treasury Chief Hints at Argentina Financial Rescue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a series of posts on X, laid out the options

administration officials are reviewing to backstop Argentina if the country under President Javier Milei's leadership can't overcome its financial woes.

Riksbank Cuts Key Rate and Signals Further Easing Is Unlikely

Sweden's central bank cut its key policy rate

by a quarter percentage point to 1.75% on Tuesday and suggested the move could mark the final monetary easing of the current cycle.

U.S. Economy Lower Rates Are Set to Juice the Commercial-Property Market

The Federal Reserve's rate cut last week is unlikely to help many Americans soon buy a home. But for the businesses involved in buying, selling and financing offices, apartment buildings and malls, the benefits could show up much more quickly .

Tariffs Will Hit Slowing U.S. Economy Hard in 2026, OECD Says

The U.S. and global economies are set to slow less sharply

this year than previously expected, but will continue to lose momentum in 2026 as higher tariffs take an increasingly large toll on activity, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

Chicago Fed's NAI Increased in August, Stayed Negative

A monthly index estimating U.S. economic growth from the Chicago Fed improved in August but remained negative, indicating that economic growth remained below trend. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to minus 0.12 in August, from minus 0.28 in July. The index's three-month moving average improved to minus 0.18, from minus 0.20 a month earlier. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Who Uses H-1B Visas the Most, in Charts

The worker visas that President Trump says now require $100,000 application fees fill a tiny portion of the U.S. workforce but include high-value jobs

concentrated among some of the biggest technology companies in some of the wealthiest coastal states.

Can Lower Fed Rates Help Fix the Government's Debt Problem?

Since the U.S. government spends about $1 trillion annually on interest for its debt, a lower interest rate should reduce those costs... right? WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin discusses why the answer is more complex than it may initially seem.

Listen Now

Forward Guidance Tuesday (all times ET)

9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI

10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

10 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in Macro Musings podcast

Wednesday

10 a.m.: New Residential Sales

4:15 p.m.: FRB San Francisco President Mary Daly speech on the U.S. economic outlook

7 p.m.: G77 Annual Meeting of Foreign Ministers

7 p.m.: ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast

Research Fed Can't Hand Out Cuts Like Candy at a Party

The U.S. two-year yield has rebounded past 3.60% even after Trump-linked economist Stephen Miran argued that the neutral rate is much lower than current levels and that he would cut rates by 150 basis points very quickly to get there. It's the kind of comments that are so far-stretched they can't be taken seriously enough to shift market expectations, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Proof? The two-year yields have moved higher, she adds. That's a sign that lowering rates wouldn't necessarily bring down long-term borrowing costs if the size and the speed of easing aren't warranted, she says. The reality is that the Fed can't hand out rate cuts like candy at a party, she says. - James Glynn

Housing Supply Drops in August Due to Sluggish Demand

Active listings of homes for sale fell 1.4% month-over-month in August, the largest seasonally-adjusted decline since June 2023, according to Redfin. They rose 9.7% from a year earlier--the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2024. New listings also cooled, falling 1.1% month-over-month to the lowest seasonally-adjusted level since January 2024 and declining 2.6% year-over-year. Sellers have been pulling back because homebuyer demand is sluggish, with sales still far below pre-pandemic levels. Pending home sales and existing home sales were both little changed in August. Redfin expects existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024. - Chris Wack

Basis Points The eurozone economy faces the threat of higher inflation rates

and slower economic growth if supplies of rare earth minerals from China are disrupted, the European Central Bank said Tuesday. Business activity in Europe expanded this month , but at a level that suggests the wider economy is growing only slowly. The composite purchasing managers' index for the eurozone rose to 51.2 this month from 51.0 in August, reaching its highest level in 16 months. Indonesia and the European Union have signed a long-awaited trade deal

that comes as Asian countries reposition themselves in a landscape reshaped by U.S. tariffs. France's slide into political and fiscal dysfunction is generating a groundswell of support

for a sweeping wealth tax that would represent a radical break from the pro-business agenda of President Macron. Ukraine has found a new way to disrupt Russia's economy, and it's scrambling the global oil market. The biggest winners so far are refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum, which are profiting from wider profit margins on products like gasoline and diesel. Ukraine has been attacking Russian refineries with drones as the war drags on. (Barron's) About Us

source: marketscreener

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Daniel Carter

Political

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

The Israeli government has shown a clear intent to establish permanent control over Gaza and to ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank, a United Nations commission said in a report on Tuesday.

The U.N. report details Israeli authorities' extensive, systematic demolition of civilian infrastructure in Gaza's corridors and buffer zone - resulting in Israel expanding control to 75% of the Gaza Strip by July this year.

"Israeli forces have also intentionally altered the geography of Gaza" through the creation of military corridors, expanding the border buffer zone and establishing security zones, the report by the U.N.'s Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory said.

Israel maintains that its war is not against the population of Gaza but against the Hamas militant group whose fighters led the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that precipitated the war.

ISRAEL SAYS REPORT 'HAS EVERYTHING BACKWARDS'

The Israeli mission in Geneva dismissed the report's findings.

"Hamas has genocidal intent towards Israel, the report has everything backwards. This Commission does not miss an opportunity to reveal its true character and politically-driven agenda."

The Commission also found that since October 2023, Israeli policies have demonstrated clear intent to forcibly transfer Palestinians, expand Jewish settlements, and annex the entire West Bank.

"Increasing violent attacks by settlers have resulted in the forcible displacement of communities and subsequent Judaization of areas of the West Bank," the report stated.

It also highlights military operations in Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams refugee camps, which resulted in destruction of homes and infrastructure and displacement of residents - actions the Commission deems unjustified militarily and tantamount to collective punishment.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has previously said the operation had sharply reduced the threat from armed Palestinian groups.

Hamas' October 7 attack killed 1,200 people and its fighters captured 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

The subsequent war in Gaza has killed more than 65,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, while a global hunger monitor says part of the territory is suffering from famine.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

For all the talk of an AI bubble, of exorbitant valuations, and of investor exuberance, analysts are finding more reasons to be bullish, and not just for the next quarter.

But the impacts of tariffs are still unfurling. And the Fed's latest easing came with additional risks and uncertainty. Central bankers aren't just battling pricing pressures but the real prospect of rising unemployment — not to mention incursions against their own independence. The reasons to be careful are also piling up.

Part of understanding why market optimism seems to be winning out — despite the factors weighing against it — is the timeline experts and investors are using to derive their optimism. It isn't just the muscular corporate results expected for the rest of the year that are powering lofty expectations. Projected returns for 2026 and even 2027 are driving the growth story too, with AI efficiencies and a more dovish Fed boosting corporate fundamentals.

By one measure, according to an analysis by DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is back to trading at dot-com era levels. Its price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing 10-year earnings is now 40x. That underscores the benchmark index's impressive returns in a year of economic tumult and historical parallels that hint at overextension.

That's not to say that we're on the verge of an epic sell-off. The math is more suggestive than prophetic. But it does prompt people interested in the stock market to consider what it would take to keep the party going.

"The S&P 500 is not just historically expensive on 2026 earnings but also based on an optimistic view of 2027 results," Colas wrote in a note to clients Sunday.

For the S&P to maintain its estimated earnings multiple, the index would need to grow its earnings 13.4% next year and another 15% in 2027.

"Investor confidence must remain well above average over the next two years for the S&P to match its long-run rate of return," he wrote.

Corporate profit margins holding up exceptionally well is one way to get there.

As our former colleague Sam Ro wrote in his TKer newsletter, corporations have proven adept at maintaining historically high margins in recent years, through the shocks of the pandemic, high inflation, tight monetary policy, and, most recently, higher tariffs.

Not only is there momentum, but the margin expansion touted this year by Big Tech companies is expected to broaden to other industries in 2026 from efficiency and productivity gains, AI, and the labor market. After all, the same labor market woes that forced the Fed to initiate a cutting cycle can also work to boost margins: Slower wage growth for workers means lowered costs for corporations.

But there's a delicate balancing act at play.

A more resilient labor market might force the Fed to hold steady, rather than initiate a months-long campaign of cutting. And Fed policymakers disagree over which of its mandates should take precedence.

How that shakes out will certainly do its part to dictate corporate costs, margin growth, and earnings. And at the end of the line, stock prices.

Source: finance.yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Technical Analysis with tradeCompass for Today (September 23, 2025)

Bullish above: $4200Bearish below: $4173Current Price: $4199Primary Bias: Neutral until one side confirmsPartial Targets: $4208.5, $4231.5, $4287.5, $4497.5 (bullish) | $4144.5, $4120, $4065, $3970 (bearish)

Ethereum Market Context and Directional Bias

Ethereum futures trade at $4188, in the middle of the range between the bullish threshold at $4200 and the bearish threshold at $4173. A sustained move above $4200 could open the door to a bullish sequence, while a drop below $4173 activates the bearish playbook.

What qualifies as “sustained” depends on your style: some traders wait for 15 minutes above the threshold, others rely on secondary indicators, and some act on the first tick beyond the line. tradeCompass provides the map, and you choose the trigger.

Until one side is activated, Ethereum remains neutral inside the $4173–$4200 range.

Ethereum Market Backdrop: Declining Volume and What It Might Mean

Over the last 24 hours, Ethereum is nearly flat (+0.10%) but trading volumes have fallen sharply by ~30%. This follows two days of declines and a small rebound attempt.

Ethereum Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass at investingLive.com_1

A drop in trading activity after heavy selling can sometimes indicate that bearish pressure is cooling—panic-driven selling may have run its course, leaving room for stabilization. However, lower volume can also reflect apathy rather than new buying strength. That’s why the tradeCompass thresholds remain critical: confirmation above $4200 or below $4173 will tell us if the next directional wave is ready.

Today’s Ethereum Futures Key Levels and Partial-Profit Strategy

Bullish Trade Plan (above $4200)

First target: $4208.5, just under yesterday’s VWAP. Quick exit to manage risk.

Second target: $4231.5, near today’s high. By default, move stops to breakeven here.

Third target: $4287.5, linked to September 9th’s Value Area Low and prior liquidity.

Final swing target: $4497.5, just under the $4500 psychological barrier.

Bearish Trade Plan (below $4173)

First target: $4144.5, just above yesterday’s Point of Control. Move stop to breakeven here.

Second target: $4120, near today’s third lower VWAP deviation.

Third target: $4065, further downside objective.

Extended target: $3970, beneath yesterday’s low, for those seeking continuation.

Educational Corner: Entry Confirmation and Flexibility

The idea of a “sustained break” can be applied in different ways. Some traders demand multiple candle closes beyond a threshold, while others prefer immediate engagement. Both can work. The key is consistency—decide on your method and apply it systematically. tradeCompass is meant as a flexible framework to integrate with your own playbook.

Trade Management Reminders

One trade per direction per tradeCompass.

After TP2, stops move to breakeven to lock in gains and manage the runner.

Place stops with a small buffer beyond your entry-side threshold—never past the opposite threshold, as that invalidates the setup.

Use confirmation methods that match your risk style.

Ethereum Technical Analysis Conclusion

Ethereum is hovering right at the line between bullish and bearish setups. The steep volume decline hints that sellers may be losing steam after recent declines, but confirmation is everything—$4200 for bulls, $4173 for bears. Until one side breaks, patience is the best position.

tradeCompass Methodology Principles

Defines daily bullish/bearish thresholds.

Encourages partial profit-taking at logical levels like VWAP, POC, VAH/VAL, or round numbers.

Promotes disciplined stop placement linked to thresholds.

Designed to support different trading styles and timeframes.

One trade per direction keeps risk controlled.