Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Summary:

Crypto's widespread acceptance translated into major gains for investors who were along for the ride.

Crypto was once a fringe sideshow for the investing public, a concern for D.C. policymakers and a subject of ridicule for top Wall Street figures.

That changed in 2024.

Digital assets such as bitcoin (BTC-USD) can now be owned and traded by regular Americans like a stock. Some of the biggest players on Wall Street are hailing it as a wise investment. And an incoming administration in Washington, D.C., is promising major legislative changes to support the industry.

Crypto's widespread acceptance translated into major gains for investors who were along for the ride.

Those holding bitcoin are up 126% since the beginning of the year as the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency set new records and surged past $100,000 following the election of Donald Trump. The market value of all crypto swelled by nearly $1.7 trillion, according to Coinmarketcap.

"It's all lining up for the crypto industry right now," Ian Katz, a managing partner with Capital Alpha, told Yahoo Finance.

Enthusiasts don’t see the rally ending anytime soon.

This time next year, "we're going to have the same conversation, that bitcoin has had an incredible run," Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan told Yahoo Finance. Bitwise expects bitcoin to cross $200,000 before the end of 2025.

One of the biggest Wall Street beneficiaries of this shift, BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink, was once a "proud skeptic" of bitcoin. The boss of the world’s largest money manager has evolved into one of its best-known advocates.

"I was a proud skeptic, and I studied it, learned about it, and I came away saying, 'OK, you know, my opinion [for] five years was wrong,'" Fink said earlier this year while discussing his previous views with CNBC.

His firm, BlackRock, now recommends intrigued investors put "as much as 2%" of their portfolio into bitcoin.

"We believe bitcoin is an asset class in itself; it is an alternative to other commodities like gold," Fink told analysts during an October earnings call.

Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024_1

BlackRock and 10 other money managers such as Fidelity Investments and Franklin Templeton got the green light in January to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, allowing everyday investors to get exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency without having to own it.

BlackRock's ETF, IBIT, then became the fastest-growing ETF in history. The 11 ETFs that launched amassed $100 billion in assets under management as of Dec. 18, according to JPMorgan Research.

"You had folks who would have been allocating to bitcoin, but because there was no traditionally trusted, easy, efficient way to do it for their circumstances, they weren't in it," Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets, told Yahoo Finance. "And then the ETFs changed that."

BlackRock’s embrace of crypto (it also launched a smaller spot ether ETF in late July) coincided with an election year where pro-crypto congressional candidates received lots of industry support. Some of crypto's biggest players — including Coinbase Global (COIN), Ripple, and venture firm Andreessen Horowitz — spent some $135 million via super PACs.

Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024_2

As a candidate, Trump also made a number of promises to the industry. He pledged to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, one of the industry’s greatest antagonists; appoint a crypto presidential advisory council; and establish a "strategic national bitcoin stockpile" with the help of Congress.

Whether the president-elect will make the US government a bitcoin holder or even buyer remains a hot debate.

But Gensler has already given his resignation notice and will be replaced by well-known crypto lawyer Paul Atkins if confirmed. For years, Atkins has made it clear he favors clearer regulations of cryptocurrencies that don’t stifle innovation or impose unnecessary oversight.

Trump has also appointed venture capitalist David Sacks to the role of AI and crypto czar. Through his venture firm, Sacks has already backed a number of crypto and AI firms.

Some other Trump Cabinet appointees have also in the past disclosed or discussed their exposure to crypto.

Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024_3

If those executive branch appointees weren't enough, the industry is also eagerly awaiting what will easily be the most pro-crypto Congress in history.

"People are shocked by it because we're a new industry, and we're newly influential in Washington," Nic Carter, a partner and co-founder of crypto venture firm Castle Island Ventures, told Yahoo Finance.

The GOP is expected to push forward pro-crypto legislation that would offer clear regulation of stablecoins and the broader crypto market and even give big banks a better route to interact with digital assets.

Carter has met with Republicans to discuss the crypto world's lack of US banking access.

"We were an industry that's been picked on relentlessly for the last four years, and it's only natural that we would try and protect our interests," he added.

Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024_4

But many regulated US banks still can’t touch crypto, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted at a recent Reuters conference.

"Everyone's speculating as to how that regulatory framework will evolve, but it's still unclear how the regulatory framework is going to evolve," Solomon added.

It’s still anyone's guess how long it could take for the first piece of crypto legislation to land before the House and Senate and then Trump.

"I would just caution people, if you think on Jan. 20 a switch is going to flip and everything's going to be better and roses for bitcoin and the digital asset community, it's just not how Washington works," Anthony Scaramucci, a crypto investor who worked in Trump’s first administration, told Yahoo Finance.

Crypto Got Everything it Wanted in 2024_5

These unknowns aren't giving much pause to some crypto evangelists though.

"Every day for the past four years I've said, buy bitcoin, don't sell the bitcoin. I'm going to be buying more bitcoin,” MicroStrategy chairman and staunch bitcoin bull Michael Saylor told Yahoo Finance this month.

“I'm going to be buying bitcoin at the top, forever."

Even some remaining skeptics on Wall Street admit it would have been smart to get in earlier.

“Of course, I wish I bought something that trades at 100 times the price it traded at a few years ago, right?” Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said at the NYT DealBook Summit earlier this month.

“We all have FOMO.”

Source: yahoo finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

Toyota Shares Gain for Second Day after Report on ROE Target_1

The stock gained 6% in Tokyo, capping an 11%, two-day gain. Shares advanced on Wednesday after the Nikkei newspaper reported the company plans to increase its ROE to 20%, citing an unidentified executive. A spokesperson said that Toyota “doesn’t have an explicit target or deadline” for ROE.

If the report is accurate, “the company would need to boost earnings from the value chain, in order to further propel profit margins upward,” Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. analyst Shinji Kakiuchi wrote in a report. “We’ll also be watching for Toyota, as a part of moves to improve capital efficiency, to take funds from selling its equity holdings to bolster shareholder returns further.”

Toyota shares have jumped over 20% this year, outperforming the broader Topix index, as a weaker yen helped boost income in its home currency. Still, the latest announcement by the world’s biggest automaker showed global sales plateaued in November as lackluster demand coalesced with a pause in production at two plants.

Here are what other analysts and investors are saying on Toyota:

Toyota Shares Gain for Second Day after Report on ROE Target_2

SBI Securities Co. (Koji Endo)

Toyota first revealed its 20% ROE target in its interim financial results briefing

The target is ambitious; Toyota will need to take on drastic measures, and a large-scale shareholder return policy will be essential to achieve its goal such as increasing dividends or conducting buybacks

Shinkin Asset Management Co. (Naoki Fujiwara)

Talks of Toyota’s 20% ROE target leads to expectations of unwinding of cross-holdings, and shareholder returns

Investors likely focused on the speed of which all this may happen

Daiwa Securities Co. (Eiji Kinouchi)

Many investors have been underweight the stock, so there are expectations its positive performance will continue after the new year

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Economic

Forex

BEIJING (Dec 26): China revised upwards its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.7% to 129.4 trillion yuan (US$17.73 trillion or RM79.3 trillion), a top statistics official said on Thursday, while releasing the fifth national economic census.

Policy support late this year has set China's economy on track to hit a growth target of "around 5%" as activity warmed slightly, but challenges such as potential US tariff hikes still weigh on prospects for next year.

Kang Yi, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, made the remarks at a press conference in Beijing, the capital, adding that the bureau would publish further details of the revision on its website in the next few days.

China's economy has "withstood the test of multiple internal and external risks over the past five years, and maintained a generally stable trend while progressing," Kang said.

The fifth economic census carried out over the past five years encompassed the three years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which had a significant impact on the economy, he said.

The international environment had witnessed "profound and complex changes" since the previous such census, he added.

The revision of 2023 GDP would not have a significant impact on China's 2024 GDP growth rate, Lin Tao, the bureau's deputy head, told the same briefing, however.

On Thursday, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.

The economic census showed changes in China's job market, with 25.6% more people employed in the tertiary industries at the end of 2023 than at the end of 2018, but secondary industries had 4.8% fewer employees.

As a severe property crisis hobbles a macroeconomic rebound, employees of property developers fell 27% to 2.71 million by the end of 2023 against the corresponding 2018 figure, the economic census data showed.

Overall employment in the property industry rose 40.2% to stand at 1.04 million by the end of 2023 over the figure at the end of 2018.

Tertiary industries range from retail to transport, catering, accommodation, finance and property, while secondary industries cover mining, manufacturing, utilities and construction, for example.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Cohen

Economic

Commodity

Crude oil prices ticked higher today as traders turned optimistic following the latest news about Chinese government stimulus for consumer spending.

Brent crude was trading at $73.80 per barrel at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $70.32 per barrel, both up from opening in Asia, after the Chinese finance ministry announced a new package of funds to go into higher pensions, medical insurance, and consumer goods trade-ins.

The stimulus move is the latest in a series aimed at supercharging the Chinese economy and, like all the stimulus reports before it, suggests higher oil demand, fueling the optimism of oil traders.

“Hopes for China's stimulus measures are supporting the market,” Rakuten Securities analyst Satoru Yoshida told Reuters. “Expectations that fossil fuel production and demand will expand after Donald Trump takes office as U.S. President next month are also bolstering oil prices,” Yoshida added.

“The obvious caveats apply with reading too much into price action at this time of year, but those that are still putting orders through the market are net buyers,” Pepperstone Group head of research Chris Weston told Bloomberg.

In addition to the China stimulus news, the latest weekly report on U.S. crude oil inventories also played a part in strengthening oil buyers’ appetite for the commodity. The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that inventories had shed 3.2 million barrels in the penultimate week of 2024. The estimate from the Energy Information Administration is due out later today. According to a Reuters poll, crude oil inventories could dip by 1.9 million barrels, accompanied by declines in fuels, of which 1.1 million barrels are in gasoline and 300,000 barrels are in middle distillates.

Looking at 2025, the same factors that drove oil prices this year will continue to drive them in the new year as well, with the notable addition of the Trump presidency, which is widely seen as bearish for prices due to his pro-oil and gas stance.

Source: OILPRICE

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Stocks

Asian shares were mostly higher Thursday in thin post-Christmas holiday trading, while oil prices rose.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surged 1.1% to 39,568.06, on strong gains in retailers and tourism-related stocks after Japan agreed to ease visa conditions for Chinese tourists.

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, a major department store group, gained 7.7%. J. Front Retailing Co., owner of the Matsuzakaya and Daimaru department store groups, jumped 8.3%. Automakers also saw large gains.

China and Japan also agreed Wednesday to conduct talks on contentious security issues and other sources of friction during a visit by Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya to Beijing, where he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.4% to 2,429.67, while the Taiex in Taiwan gained 0.1%.

The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% higher, to 3,398.08.

Thailand’s SET fell 0.1%.

Markets were closed Thursday in Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia.

U.S. markets were closed on Wednesday and will reopen Thursday, when an update on U.S. unemployment benefits is due.

Gains in Big Tech stocks have contributed to a “Santa rally” for Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite climbed 1.3%.

Also early Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil was up 8 cents at $70.18 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 4 cents to $73.21 per barrel.

The dollar rose to 157.41 Japanese yen from 157.19 yen. The euro fell to $1.0398 from $1.0410.

The year’s end historically has been a very cheerful season for the U.S. markets. The last five trading days of each year, plus the first two in the new year, have brought an average gain of 1.3% since 1950.

So far this month, the U.S. stock market has lost some of its gains since President-elect Donald Trump’s win on Election Day, which raised hopes for faster economic growth and more lax regulations that would boost corporate profits. Worries have risen that Trump’s preference for tariffs and other policies could lead to higher inflation, a bigger U.S. government debt and difficulties for global trade.

Even so, the U.S. market remains on pace to deliver strong returns for 2024. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 26.6% so far this year and remains within roughly 1% of the all-time high it set earlier this month — its latest of 57 record highs this year.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed for a fourth day, the longest winning streak since September, led by Japan and Taiwan,China. Japanese shares also rose after central bank governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday avoided giving any clues about a possible interest-rate hike. Most major markets in Europe will stay shut for the Christmas break Thursday, while trading will reopen in the US.

Equity bulls are pinning their hopes on what’s known as the “Santa Claus Rally” in which stocks rise during the final five trading sessions of a year and the first two of the new one. This time around that window started Tuesday.

“A follow-through from pre-Christmas momentum will mean a continued drift higher for Asian markets,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte in Singapore. “Weakness in the yen on the back of recent Fed-BOJ policy divergence has offered some support for Japanese equities in today’s session, coupled with the year-end positive seasonality around the Santa Claus rally.”

Japanese retail shares gained after the country agreed with China to introduce more measures to promote tourist visits. The two nations also agreed that Beijing’s top diplomat should visit Japan in 2025, adding to signs the two nations are repairing ties that have been strained in recent years.

Department store operator J. Front Retailing Co., which also got a boost from better-than-expected earnings, jumped as much as 9% in Tokyo, while Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. and Takashimaya Co. also climbed.

Toyota Motor Corp. was the largest contributor to gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, following a report the automaker is planning to double its target for return-on-equity.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on Wednesday avoided giving a clear signal he might raise rates next month by reiterating the need to keep monitoring risks for the economy in comments that nudged down the yen.

Shares of Chinese computing-equipment makers advanced after the nation said it planned to include the sector into the investment scope of local government special bonds. Kingsignal Technology Co. surged as much as 20% as did Broadex Technologies Co.

Treasury 10-year yields climbed two basis points to 4.61% before the US auctions $44 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday. The dollar was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has generated average and median returns of 1.3% during the “Santa Claus” period, widely outpacing the market’s average seven-day gain of 0.3%, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.

US Futures in Tight Range after Asian Shares Gain: Markets Wrap_1

“When investors are on the ‘nice’ list, and Santa delivers a ‘positive’ Santa Claus Rally return, the S&P 500 has generated an average January and forward annual return of 1.4% and 10.4%, respectively,” he said.

The S&P 500 closed 1.1% higher on Tuesday, extending this year’s advance to 27%. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%.

“The action of the past few weeks shows that the big-cap tech names are still the key leadership group,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “These big-tech names are highly overweighted in the portfolios of a huge number of institutional investors. Any buying they do over the next week is likely to be concentrated in these names.”

In commodities, oil held gains after an advance on Tuesday, with China’s stimulus measures and the outlook for US stockpiles in focus.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Titan FX

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Key Highlights

Ethereum found support near $3,100 and corrected some losses.

ETH traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $3,680 on the daily chart.

Bitcoin price must settle above $100,000 to start a fresh increase.

XRP could gain bullish momentum if it clears the $2.50 resistance.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum declined heavily from $4,100 like Bitcoin. ETH traded below the $3,500 and $3,350 support levels before the bulls appeared near $3,100.

Looking at the daily chart, the price remained well above the 100-day simple moving average (red) and the 200-day simple moving average (green). A low was formed at $3,092 and the price recently started a recovery wave.

There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,105 swing high to the $3,092 low. Immediate resistance is near the $3,600 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,105 swing high to the $3,092 low is also near $3,600. The next major resistance is near the $3,720 level. A daily close above the $3,720 resistance zone could start another steady increase.

In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $3,880 level. The next stop for the bulls may perhaps be to $4,000 or a new all-time high.

On the downside, Ethereum might find support near the $3,220 level. The next major support is $3,150, below which the price could slide toward $3,100. Any more losses might call for a move toward the $3,000 level.

Looking at Bitcoin, there was a steady increase above the $95,000 level, and the price might continue to rise toward the $105,000 level.