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After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
However, the trend reversed in the latter half of the week, with FPIs offloading equities worth over Rs 4,102 crore in the subsequent three sessions. This resulted in an overall net outflow of Rs 976 crore during the week, data from National Securities Depository Limited showed.
Despite this short-term reversal, the broader December trend remains positive. FPIs have infused Rs 21,789 crore into Indian equities so far this month, reflecting continued confidence in India's economic growth potential and its resilient markets.
FPIs adopted a cautious approach due to the US Fed meeting and uncertainty about its outcome and future policy direction, said Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.
While the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, it signalled fewer rate cuts in the future, dampening investor sentiment and triggering global market sell-offs, he added.
Additionally, factors like high valuations, weak corporate earnings for the September quarter, expectations of subdued results for December, rising inflation, slower GDP growth, and a depreciating rupee have further weighed on investor confidence, he noted.
"Rising US dollar (dollar index above 108) and steady increase in the US 10-year bond yields to 4.5 per cent contributed to the FPIs selling.
"India-specific issues like slowing growth concerns and flat corporate earnings in Q2 also contributed to the FPIs selling. The strength of the US economy, good corporate earnings growth, and strong dollar are factors favouring the US," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
FPI selling has brought down the prices of certain large-cap segments, such as banking, making valuations more attractive. Investors can take advantage of this market downturn to invest in quality large caps.
Sectors like pharma, IT, and digital platform companies are expected to remain resilient and defy the downtrend.
Earlier in November, FPIs pulled out a net Rs 21,612 crore and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October, the worst monthly outflow on record.
Interestingly, September had marked a nine-month high for FPI inflows, with a net investment of Rs 57,724 crore, highlighting the volatility in foreign investment trends.So far in 2024, FPI investment has reached Rs 6,770 crore, data with the depositories showed.
US crude oil shipments to northwest Europe are expected to fall early next year from record highs in November as arbitrage for transatlantic shipments has been shut and freight rates have risen, according to a Reuters report.
The spread between the US West Texas Intermediate crude oil and Brent futures has narrowed significantly in the last few trading sessions.
At the time of writing, the spread between the two benchmarks was hovering around $3.48 per barrel.
This is the smallest closing spread since October 2023.
A narrower spread makes it less economical to ship oil barrels from the US across the Atlantic.
Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho told Reuters:
A discount of $4, in my opinion, is always the line in the sand between a big export number versus a small export number.
US crude oil exports: rising rates and falling storage
According to the report, the spread between the two oil benchmarks has narrowed due to rising freight rates and falling inventories in the US.
In the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI crude, stockpiles have dropped to 23 million barrels.
This is the lowest mid-December level in 17 years.
Reuters said that declining storage in Cushing meant that the US barrels were being priced to stay in the country.
US exports of crude oil had been higher last month as the spread between WTI/Brent widened to $4.50 per barrel at the end of November.
This had encouraged more crude flows across the Atlantic Ocean to higher priced markets, thereby lifting US exports.
Higher freight rates
The rise in exports from the US across the Atlantic may be short-lived.
Freight rates for moving shipments from the US Gulf Coast to northwest Europe have risen roughly $1 from November to around $3.80 per barrel in December, Reuters quoted data from commodity pricing firm Argus.
The narrowing WTI/Brent spread contributed to the higher freight rates.
This is also being used to price shipments for late January arrivals, according to the report.
“We would expect more limited U.S. to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp flows in the short-term to emerge,” Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities told Reuters.
The inclusion of WTI Midland crude in the dated Brent index has meant that the spread between the two is increasingly correlated to freight rates, as the price of Dated Brent is set by WTI Midland on many trading days.
U.S. exports bound for Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hit a record high of 771,000 barrels per day in November, according to data from ship tracker Kpler.
WTI was priced at a steeper discount than $4 per barrel against Brent through most of October, when those cargoes would have been booked, making those flows more profitable.
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