Gold Trades To A New All Time High

Commodity

Summary:

Gold reaches new record, buyers in control with upside target near $3,055. Rally expected to continue as sellers struggle to shift bullish bias.

Gold continues its bullish momentum, surging $30.60 (1.02%) to $3,031.76, marking a new all-time high. The precious metal is now up 15.57% in 2025, following a 27.2% rally in 2024. With record highs being set, traders must ask: "What could derail this rally, even in the short term?" Until a clear bearish signal emerges, buyers remain firmly in control, and the trend can persist.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

On the hourly chart, gold recently tested its 50-hour moving average and an upward sloping trendline. Buyers stepped in at these support levels, propelling the price higher. Today’s bullish momentum has pushed gold away from those key supports, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. A break below these levels would be the first signal that sellers are gaining some traction, but until then, the path of least resistance remains higher.

Upside Potential

If momentum continues, traders will eye the upper parallel trendline, currently near $3,055 and rising, as the next potential target. The saying "the trend is your friend" remains true here—gold’s upward trajectory shows no immediate signs of slowing.

Bottom Line

The uptrend remains intact, and sellers have little control until key support levels break convincingly. A downside move may pause the rally, but it will take more than that to shift the broader bullish bias. For now, gold remains in the hands of the buyers, and the rally can extend further.

Source: ForexLive

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Owen Li

Economic

Headline CPI inflation increased in February to 2.6% year-on-year (y/y), above expectations and up from 1.9% in January. The GST/HST holiday that ended Feb. 15th, played a key role in higher inflation.

Not surprisingly given the sales tax holiday, restaurant prices contributed the most to the acceleration in headline CPI in February. Prices for food in restaurants were down 1.4% versus a year ago compared to -5.1% y/y in January.

Slower energy price gains at the pump moderated the increase in inflation. Gasoline prices were up 5.1% y/y in February, down from 8.6% y/y in January.

Inflation continued to slow for the key shelter component (+4.2% y/y) and transportation (+3.0% y/y). Shelter has been a major source of inflation in recent years, but should be a moderating force in the months ahead.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred “core” inflation measures were also hotter-than-expected, averaging 2.9% y/y in February, up from 2.7% y/y in January. The trends over the past three months suggest that core inflation is set to head a bit higher in the months ahead, with the three-month annualized pace running slightly above 3% in February.

Key Implications

Headline inflation was a little hotter than expected as the sales tax holiday came to an end. However, the three-month annualized trend in core inflation has been tracking above 3%, signaling that core inflation should continue to grind higher. Our Quarterly Economic Forecast published today shows core inflation rising next quarter as tariffs contribute to price pressures.

This puts the BoC in a difficult place. Canadians’ inflation expectations have risen, but the hit to demand from uncertainty and the tariffs themselves are already weighing on demand. How tariffs play out remains highly uncertain. Our forecast assumes elevated U.S. tariffs over the next six months, and then gradual reductions. In this world, we expect the Bank of Canada to provide some further cushion in the form of two more 25 basis point rate cuts at its next two rate announcements. Markets have lowered their odds of a cut on April 16th slightly in the wake of today’s inflation numbers, but we will know a lot more about the path of tariffs by the time the decision rolls around.

Source:Bank Financial Group

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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ING

Economic

Eurozone trade data showed some decent increases in both exports and imports in January, with imports increasing more (when looking at seasonally-adjusted data). For both, this was the strongest reading in more than a year. For the eurozone, the trade surplus declined slightly from €14.2 to €14bn. Last year showed weak demand for European goods from abroad and relatively lacklustre domestic demand as consumers were frugal and investment was slow. This slightly better start to 2025 may be attributed to some anticipation of tariff wars and a recovery in manufacturing but with imports outgrowing exports right now, don’t expect a big positive impact on GDP growth in the first quarter.

For the US specifically, a notable pickup in both exports and imports can be seen when correcting data for seasonal effects. The January data showed an increase of €2.7bn in exports and €2.6 in imports. This is likely driven by anticipation of tariffs coming into effect. It resulted in a slightly widening trade surplus for the eurozone. That bucks the overall trend of a narrowing trade surplus.

The outlook for the trade balance remains highly uncertain, as upcoming tariffs could significantly disrupt international trade in the coming months. For now though, eurozone manufacturers indicate that new export orders have been bottoming out, hoping for a rebound in the months to come. That seems uncertain of course. On the other side of that balance, eurozone imports continue to be held back by weak investment and cautious consumers.

Source:ING

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ING

Economic

The German parliament has just agreed to a €500bn infrastructure fund and changes to the debt brake to allow for higher defence spending and more fiscal space for state governments. It passed with a two-thirds majority. After tough negotiations and a compromise between CDU/CSU, SPD and the Greens, the deal was almost sealed last Friday, but negotiations on the controversial move continued through the weekend.

Highest hurdle taken, Federal Council will be next

The official agreement consists of a €500bn infrastructure fund over the next 12 years, of which €100bn will immediately be channelled into the Climate Transition Fund. The remainder of the fund remains dedicated to additional infrastructure investments, with €300 billion designated for the federal government and €100 billion for the state governments. Also, defence spending of more than 1% of GDP will be exempted from the debt brake and state governments will be allowed to run annual deficits of up to 0.35% of GDP.

The final hurdle will now be the Federal Council (Bundesrat), where the regional states’ governments will vote on the draft law. Here, the number of votes every state government holds differs according to the size of the population. And it is an unwritten rule that state governments only agree to a draft law if all coalition parties of the state government agree. The last potential stumbling block seems to be Bavaria, where the coalition partner of the CSU, the Free Voters, has not yet agreed to support the fiscal package.

Also, let’s not forget that there is still no new German government. The coalition negotiations have only just started. After the public outcry after the release of a draft outline, we expect tough negotiations with potential tensions on where to cut government expenditure. Remember, the draft outline included proposals for VAT cuts for restaurants, a return of the exemption of the diesel tax for farmers, a higher minimum wage and other election gifts. Those measures alone would increase the German deficit significantly from its current 2% of GDP.

After today’s vote, we would expect CDU/CSU to push for stricter austerity measures than initially included in the draft outline. However, once the fiscal package has also passed the Federal Council, it no longer matters who will lead the next government. Fiscal space is now a given.

Implications for Europe

The German debt brake had always been stricter than European fiscal rules. With today’s decision, the brake is not officially dead but buried alive. Germany has given up on leading the group of fiscal frugals in Europe for the sake of boosting its economy. If the incoming government doesn't come up with additional structural reforms and longer-term austerity measures, such as changes to the pension system and the retirement age, then Germany will have a hard time convincing the rest of Europe to tighten its belt.

Cyclical rebound coming up but more is needed to restore competitiveness

Just loosening the fiscal debt brake, by the way, does not automatically lead to higher growth. In fact, the escape clause of the debt brake has been activated frequently over the last few years, and it hasn’t prevented the German economy from falling into its current structural stagnation. Perhaps I could argue that things could have been worse.

The difference between a looser fiscal debt brake due to the escape clause and today’s decision is the €500bn infrastructure fund. Implemented in the right way, investment in infrastructure should lead to at least a cyclical upswing. The caveat to all of this, however, remains that these measures alone - impressive as their size might be - will do very little to improve the economy’s competitiveness. Modern infrastructure is essential for one of the world's largest economies, but it doesn't inherently drive innovation, sector transformation, or new growth opportunities.

Regardless, the chances of a cyclical rebound in the German economy on the back of positive sentiment effects and later actual spending have clearly increased. How long this cyclical rebound will last and whether it could become a structural recovery will now highly depend on whether or not the official coalition talks will eventually lead to real structural reforms. Otherwise, today's fiscal package will only be a very huge flash in the pan.

Source:ING

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Golden Gleam

Commodity

XAU/USD quotes continue to move within the development of growth and a bullish channel. At the time of publication of the forecast, the price of Gold for today is 3019 Dollars per Troy Ounce. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines upwards, which indicates pressure from asset buyers and potential continuation of growth from current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a fall and a test of the support level near the 3005 area. From where we should expect an upward rebound and continued growth in the price of Gold with a potential target above the level of 3155.

GOLD Forecast and Analysis for March 19, 2025

An additional signal in favor of the growth of XAU/USD quotes will be a test of the bullish trend line on the relative strength indicator (RSI indicator). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the option to increase prices for Gold on March 19, 2025 will be a fall in prices and a breakout of the 2975 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall in asset quotes to the area below the 2945 level. It is worth expecting an acceleration in the growth of XAU/USD quotes with a breakout of the resistance area and a price close above the 3045 level.

GOLD Forecast and Analysis for March 19, 2025 suggests an attempt to develop a bearish price correction and test the support area near the 3005 level. Further, the continuation of the growth of non-ferrous metal quotes with a target above the 3155 level. The cancellation of the option to increase prices for Gold will be a fall in the value of the asset on the markets and a breakout of the 2975 level. This will indicate a continuation of the decline in the price of Gold with a potential target below the 2945 mark.

Source: forex24.pro

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Michelle

Political

Israel launched overnight airstrikes across Gaza that Hamas said killed hundreds of people, shattering a nearly two-month ceasefire with the Palestinian group.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Tuesday to act “with increasing military strength,” saying Hamas had repeatedly refused to release its remaining hostages. The move brought to an abrupt end any immediate hope the truce would be extended into a second phase, initially slated for the start of this month.

As well as freeing the roughly 60 captives still in Gaza, Israel wants Hamas to disarm and step down from power in the territory. The Iran-backed group, designated a terrorist organization by the US and many other countries, had been calling for Israeli troops to withdraw.

Hamas said at least 404 people have been killed while many others are missing since the airstrikes began.

The Gaza operation, along with others overnight by Israel on Lebanon and Syria and US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen since Saturday, have ended the relative calm in the Middle East in recent weeks.

Gold and oil prices have risen. The former increased to a fresh all-time high, while Brent crude is up about 2.1% to $72.04 a barrel in the past two days, heading for its best week since early-January. The Israeli shekel weakened 0.7% as of 12:23 p.m. local time, the worst performer in Bloomberg’s basket of 31 ‘expanded major’ currencies.

The Gaza bombardment is the fiercest since a truce brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US started in January. It officially ended in early March — with Hamas having released around 35 hostages and Israel freeing more than 1,000 imprisoned Palestinians. There was no official extension of the deal as the warring sides disagreed on the way forward during talks through the mediators.

Israel had warned that it could restart military operations if Hamas didn’t agree to release more hostages, of which it believes around 25 are alive.

After the strikes began, Hamas said Netanyahu had decided to “overturn the ceasefire agreement, putting the captives in Gaza at an unknown fate.” The group earlier accused Israel of failing to meet its commitments under the truce, citing the Netanyahu government’s decision to stop aid supplies getting into Gaza.

Large swathes of the Palestinian territory have been destroyed in the 17 months of war, with the vast majority of its 2 million population displaced. More than 48,000 people have been killed, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health authority.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

CryptoQuant’s head chief says Bitcoin’s bull market could already be over — changing his stance from earlier in the month when he said the Bitcoin bull cycle will be slow but “is still intact.”

“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 17 X post.

All signals are currently bearish, says Ju

Ju said that all Bitcoin onchain metrics indicate a bear market. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju said.

It comes only days after Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding long or short positions in crypto futures, are hovering close to 0%, indicating increasing indecisiveness among traders.

Ju’s claim is in stark contrast to his March 4 post, where he said the Bitcoin bull cycle will remain slow but “is still intact,” pointing to neutral readings on key indicators.

“Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online,” Ju said in a March 4 X post.

Other analysts aren’t as bearish. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that “there is no reason to panic.”

Hundal explained that while investors are “spooked” by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, “all the numbers show a global economy that is pointing in the right direction.”

“Money will move to on-risk assets when the market is ready to take on risk.”

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $83,030, down 14.79% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data. ‘Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over,’ CryptoQuant CEO Warns, Citing On-Chain Metrics_1

‘Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over,’ CryptoQuant CEO Warns, Citing On-Chain Metrics_1

Bitcoin is down 14.89% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Some analysts think that given that the global M2 money supply has just reached new highs, Bitcoin could be set for an uptrend.

“I’m saying Global Money Supply just made another new ATH. We are about to see Bitcoin rally again,” crypto analyst Seth said in a recent X post.

Likewise, CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger said that if the historical trend persists, Bitcoin could reach all-time highs by late April.

“Expect Bitcoin to hit a new ATH within a month if its BETA correlation to money supply holds,” Weisberger said in a March 17 X post.

However, based on historical data, Bitcoin’s current price is 67% lower than the lower bound should be, according to former Phunware CEO Alan Knitowski.

“At this stage of the cycle, the lower bound of the historical range should be around $250,000,” Knitowski said in a March 17 X post. ‘Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over,’ CryptoQuant CEO Warns, Citing On-Chain Metrics_2

‘Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over,’ CryptoQuant CEO Warns, Citing On-Chain Metrics_2

Source: Alan Knitowski

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten recently told Cointelegraph that “there’s more than a 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June this year.” Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000 was reached on Jan. 20, just hours before Trump was inaugurated as US President.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Gold Trades To A New All Time High

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Upside Potential

Bottom Line

Source: ForexLive

Canadian Inflation Moves Higher in February as Sales Tax Holiday Ends

Key Implications

Source:Bank Financial Group

Don’t tell Trump: The Eurozone Trade Surplus With the US Widened Slightly in January

Source:ING

Germany Agrees Historic Fiscal Package and Debt Brake Change

Highest hurdle taken, Federal Council will be next

Implications for Europe

Cyclical rebound coming up but more is needed to restore competitiveness

Source:ING

Gold Forecast And Analysis For March 19, 2025

GOLD Forecast and Analysis for March 19, 2025

Source: forex24.pro

Israel Ends Gaza Truce With Strikes, Blaming Hamas for Breakdown

Source: Yahoo Finance

‘Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over,’ CryptoQuant CEO Warns, Citing On-Chain Metrics

All signals are currently bearish, says Ju

Bitcoin is down 14.89% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Source: Alan Knitowski

Source: Cointelegraph

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