IMF Chief Urges Countries to Move 'swiftly' to Resolve Trade Tensions That Threaten Global Growth

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The head of the International Monetary Fund urged countries to move “swiftly’’ to resolve trade disputes that threaten global economic growth.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the unpredictability arising from President Donald Trump’s aggressive campaign of taxes on foreign imports is causing companies to delay investments and consumers to hold off on spending.

“Uncertainty is bad for business,’’ she told reporters Thursday in a briefing during the spring meetings of the IMF and its sister agency, the World Bank.

Georgieva’s comments came two days after the IMF downgraded the outlook for world economic growth this year. The 191-country lending organization, which seeks to promote global growth, financial stability and to reduce poverty, also sharply lowered its forecast for the United States. It said the chances that the world’s biggest economy would fall into recession have risen from 25%, to about 40%.

Georgieva warned that the economic fallout from trade conflict would fall most heavily on poor countries, which do not have the money to offset the damage.

Since returning the White House in January, Trump has aggressively imposed tariffs on American trading partners. Among other things, he’s slapped 145% import taxes on China and 10% on almost every country in the world, raising U.S. tariffs to levels not seen in more than a century. But he has repeatedly changed U.S. policy — suddenly suspending or altering the tariffs — and left companies bewildered about what he is trying to accomplish and what his end game might be.

Trump’s tariffs — a sharp reversal of decades of U.S. policy in favor of free trade — and the resulting uncertainty around them have caused a weekslong rout in financial markets. But stocks rallied Wednesday after the Trump administration signaled that it is open to reducing the massive tariffs on China. “There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are at their highest since January 2025.

Inflows to exchanges down to levels last seen in December 2016.

Bitcoin’s negative funding rates could set up a short squeeze.

BTC price is above major moving averages, which can now provide support.

Bitcoin’s price rose to a new range high at $94,700 on April 23, its highest value since March 2.

Several analysts say the next psychological resistance remains at $95,000, and the price might drop to test support levels below.

“The $94K–$95K zone is clearly the resistance to beat,” said Swissblock in an April 24 post on X.

The onchain data provider asserted that the next logical move for Bitcoin would be a pullback toward the $90,000 zone to gain momentum for a move higher.

“The $89K–$90K zone could be next to test bulls, but with BTC’s structure strength, these dips are for buying.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Swissblock

Popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC opined that the asset will likely consolidate in the $93,000-$95,000 range “before pushing higher to take liquidity above 100K.”

Source: AlphBTC

Several bullish signs suggest that BTC is well-positioned to break above $95,000 in the following days or weeks.

Bitcoin ETF demand rebounds

One factor supporting the Bitcoin bull argument is resurgent institutional demand, reflected by significant inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On April 22 and April 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net flow totaling $936 million and $917 million, respectively, as per data from SoSoValue.

As Cointelegraph reported, these inflows have been the highest since January 2025 and more than 500 times the 2025 daily average. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_3

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_3

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

This trend reflects growing confidence among traditional finance players, as observed by market analysts like Jamie Coutts, who noted global liquidity hitting new all-time highs, historically fueling asset price rallies. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_4

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_4

Source: Jamie Coutts

Institutional buying creates sustained upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price by absorbing the available supply.

Less BTC supply on crypto exchanges

The trend of decreasing Bitcoin exchange inflows continues, suggesting a potential reduction in sell pressure.

The total amount of coins transferred to the exchanges has dropped from a year-to-date high of 97,940 BTC per day on Feb. 25 to 45,000 BTC on April 23, as per data from CryptoQuant.

This is reinforced by a reduction in the number of addresses depositing Bitcoin to exchanges, which has been “steadily declining since 2022,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

He highlights that this metric’s 30-day moving average has dropped to 52,000 BTC, a level last seen in December 2016.

“This trend is bullish in itself,” as it represents a fourfold reduction in coin sales over the last three years, the analyst said, adding:

“Essentially, this represents growing HODL sentiment, which significantly reduces selling pressure, creating a foundation for further growth.”

Bitcoin exchange depositing address count. Source: CryptoQuant

Negative funding rates can fuel BTC rally

Bitcoin price has rebounded to levels last seen in early March, but futures trades are not entirely on board yet.

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates remained negative between April 22 and April 23, despite the price rising by 11% over the same period, data from Glassnode shows. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_6

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_6

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates. Source: Glassnode

Negative funding rates imply that shorts are paying longs, reflecting a bearish sentiment that can fuel a short squeeze as prices rise.

In an April 22 post on X, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlighted a similar divergence in Bitcoin’s price and Binance funding rates.

“Whereas BTC continues to climb, funding rates on Binance have turned negative, currently sitting at around -0.006 at the time of writing,” Darkfost explained.

He added that this is a rare occurrence, which has historically been followed by significant rallies, like Bitcoin’s surge from $28,000 to $73,000 in October 2023, and from $57,000 to $108,000 in September 2024. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_7

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_7

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may rally from the current levels, breaking above the resistance at $95,000 toward $100,000.

Bitcoin trades above the 200-day SMA

On April 22, Bitcoin price rose above a key level: the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at $88,690, fueling a marketwide recovery.

The last time the BTC price broke above the 200-day SMA, it experienced a parabolic move, rallying 80% from $66,000 on Oct. 14, 2024, to its previous all-time high of $108,000 on Dec. 17.

This level should provide significant support as Bitcoin trades above this key trendline. But if it doesn’t hold, the following levels to watch will likely be $84,379, the 50-day SMA, and the $80,000 psychological level. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_8

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_8

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

For the bulls, the resistance levels at $95,000 and $100,000 are the primary ones to watch. Rising above that would pave the way for a run toward the Jan. 20 all-time high above $109,000.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Businesses across multiple industries are increasing prices, cutting financial guidance and warning of growing uncertainty as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war pushes up costs, up-ends supply chains and stirs concerns about the global economy.

Comments on Thursday from the world's biggest packaged food companies underscored worries among business executives and investors that Trump's tariffs and his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hurt confidence on Main Street.

"Some political decisions, economic decisions taken have rather undermined already soft consumer confidence," Nestle CEO Laurent Freixe told reporters in an earnings call.

Dove soap maker Unilever, which was also reporting earnings, described "declining consumer sentiment" in its North American markets.

Stocks drifted on Thursday and a rebound in the dollar fizzled out as investors tried to pick through the Trump administration's fast-changing announcements on tariffs and the leadership of the Fed, the U.S. central bank.

While most of the tariffs have been paused for 90 days until July 8, a 10% universal rate and duties on aluminium, steel and car imports remain in place, as do eye-popping levies on goods imported from China, to which Beijing has responded in kind.

The Trump administration will look at lowering tariffs on imported Chinese goods pending talks between the two countries, a source told Reuters on Wednesday.

With the first-quarter earnings season entering its second busy week, companies were counting the costs of the chaos and setting out how they plan to stem the fallout.

Medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher Scientific and soda and snacks giant PepsiCo became the latest companies to cut annual profit forecasts, citing the trade turmoil.

Thermo Fisher also warned of the impact of the Trump administration's proposed cuts to academic research funding.

Hyundai Motor said it had launched a task force to handle its response to the tariffs and moved production of some Tucson crossover vehicles from Mexico to the United States.

"We expect a challenging business outlook to continue due to intensifying trade wars and other various unpredictable macroeconomic factors," it said.

The automaker is also considering whether to move production of some U.S.-bound cars from South Korea to other locations, it said as it reaffirmed its annual earnings targets.

Hyundai and affiliate Kia, which together are the world's third-biggest automaking group by sales, generate about one-third of their global sales from the U.S. market and imports account for roughly two-thirds of their U.S. car sales.

Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com said nearly 3,000 firms have already made enquiries about its 200 billion yuan ($27.35 billion) fund, announced on April 11, to help exporters sell their products domestically over the next year.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT

In another sign of ebbing consumer confidence, Essity's CEO Magnus Groth told Reuters the Swedish tissue maker had seen a drop in demand for hygiene products from hotels and restaurants in North America because people are eating out less and may not be travelling.

Phonemaker Nokia flagged a short-term disruption from U.S. tariffs, while Dassault Systemes, which sells software to automakers, airplane manufacturers and defence companies, cut its forecast profit margin due to tariff-related market volatility, knocking its shares.

Nestle and Unilever delivered better-than-expected quarterly sales, but they and their big-brand rivals are easing U.S. price increases to avoid losing American shoppers to retailers' less expensive private-label brands.

That may help soothe concerns that tariffs will fuel a spike in inflation and slow the U.S. economy, although other companies, including Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica, LG Electronics and Interparfums have said they are hiking U.S. prices or may do so.

"As we look ahead, we expect more volatility and uncertainty, particularly related to global trade developments, which we expect will increase our supply chain costs," PepsiCo Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta said on Thursday.

"At the same time, consumer conditions in many markets remain subdued and similarly have an uncertain outlook."

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

U.S. applications for jobless benefits rose modestly last week as business continue to retain workers despite fears of a possible economic downturn.

Jobless claim applications inched up by 6,000 to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s just barely more than the 220,000 new applications analysts forecast.

Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered a proxy for layoffs, and have mostly stayed in a healthy range between 200,000 and 250,000 for the past few years.

The four-week average of applications, which evens out some of the week-to-week volatility ticked down by 750 to 220,250.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of April 12 declined by 37,000 to 1.84 million.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

The recent optimism on Wall Street dissipated early Thursday as companies continued to reassess their financial outlooks due to uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies.

Futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.1% before the bell, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3%. Nasdaq futures were off 0.1%.

Thursday’s nominal downturn in markets comes after a two-day rally that was fueled by Trump backing off his criticism of the Federal Reserve and softening his tough talk about trade with China.

PepsiCo fell 1% in the premarket after the beverage and snack maker lowered its full-year earnings expectations, citing increased costs from tariffs and a pullback in consumer spending. A 25% tariff on imported aluminum for cans is among those hitting PepsiCo and other beverage makers.

Southwest Airlines became the latest carrier to pull elements of its profit forecast over uncertainty about the economy. Its shares fell 4% before markets opened. Earlier this month, Delta Air Lines scratched its performance expectations for 2025, citing similar uncertainty over tariffs and consumer spending.

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reports its latest results after the bell Thursday.

Calling Trump’s policy announcements “headline turbulence,” Tan Jing Yi of the Asia & Oceania Treasury Department at Mizuho Bank warned that global economies could be hurt in the long run, adding, “Sentiments swing from hopes of intense relief to inflicted economic gloom.”

Much of the recent market volatility is because of uncertainty about what Trump will do with his economic policies. Adding to some relief was Trump saying late Tuesday that he has “no intention” to fire the head of the Federal Reserve.

Trump’s tough talk had frightened investors because the Fed is supposed to act independently, without pressure from politicians, so that it can make decisions that may be painful in the short term but are best for the long term.

While a cut to interest rates by the Fed could give the economy a boost, it could also put upward pressure on inflation. Trump also said U.S. tariffs on imports coming from China could come down “substantially” from the current 145%.

“It won’t be that high, not going to be that high,” he said.

Investors are hoping Trump would lower his tariffs after negotiating trade deals with other countries. Trump said this week that he would be “very nice” to the world’s second-largest economy and not play hardball with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday.

France’s CAC 40 and the German DAX each shed 0.2% by midday, while Britain’s FTSE 100 ticked down 0.1%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.5% to finish at 35,039.15. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to 7,968.20. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.1% to 2,522.33. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.7% to 21,909.76, while the Shanghai Composite was little changed, inching up less than 0.1% to 3,297.29.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude rose 74 cents to $63.01 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 70 cents to $65.88 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 142.37 Japanese yen from 143.15 yen. The euro cost $1.1389, up from $1.1322.

Source: AP

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

The German government cut its economic growth forecast on Thursday and now sees stagnation in 2025 instead of a 0.3% expansion as uncertainty from global trade disputes is set to hobble growth and dampen investment.

Germany was the only G7 economy that failed to grow for the last two years, and the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump could put Europe's largest economy on track for a third year without growth for the first time in history.

Germany's export-driven economy was already struggling with weak global demand for its products and foreign companies chipping away at its competitiveness.

While announcing the figures, which were reported by Reuters on Tuesday, Economy Minister Robert Habeck called for the European Union and the U.S. to find a solution on trade but also for the EU to prepare countermeasures if needed.

"Now the German economy is once again facing major challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the United States," Habeck said in a written statement.

"Given the German economy's close integration into global supply chains and our high level of foreign trade openness, the new US protectionism could have significant direct and indirect effects on our economic growth," he said.

For 2026, the government now expects growth of 1%, down slightly from its January forecast of 1.1%, expecting some uptick under the incoming government of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz.

Exports are expected to fall by 2.2% this year, following a 1.1% decline in 2024. Next year, exports are expected to rise by 1.3%.

Earlier this month, German economic institutes cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.1% from the 0.8% expected in September, taking into consideration initial U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars.

However, a survey on Thursday showed German business morale unexpectedly improving in April, though expectations were still slightly gloomieras companies remain uncertain about how the tariff escalation with the United States will play out.

The German government foresees inflation falling to 2% this year and then to 1.9% next year, down from 2.2% last year.

Economic weakness will take its toll on the labour market, with the unemployment rate expected to go up to 6.3% this year from 6.0% last year, before falling to 6.2% in 2026.

Source: Reuters

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Catherine Richards

Economic

The dollar, battered and bruised by US tariff uncertainty and recession fears, has much further to fall, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius says.

The dollar has fallen over 4.5% in April, set for its biggest monthly drop since late 2022, as investors dump US assets, sparking talk of a crisis of confidence in the world's No 1 reserve currency.

It has slumped 8% this year against a basket of other major currencies.

Further falls would exacerbate price pressures when tariffs are already pushing up inflation, Hatzius writes in an opinion piece in the Financial Times.

A weaker dollar, by making exports cheaper, would also help narrow the US trade deficit and help buffer the economy from recession. But Hatzius notes the drivers of dollar weakness matter and reduced appetite for US assets could offset the impact of a weaker currency on financial conditions.

"I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation and interest rates," said Hatzius.

"But with all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go."

Hatzius, noted that two historical periods with similar dollar valuations to the present day — the mid-1980s and early 2000s — set the stage for a 25%-30% depreciation.

The IMF estimates non-US investors hold around US$22 trillion in US assets. Hatzius says this perhaps makes up a third of combined portfolios, with half of this in equities that are often not hedged for currency moves.

Hatzius adds a US current account deficit of US$1.1 trillion has to be financed by a net capital inflow of the same amount every year. In theory, this comes from foreign buying of US assets, so even a pause in foreign US asset purchases could hurt the greenback.

Hatzius says such factors would not carry so much weight if the US economy continued to outperform its peers, but this looks unlikely.

The IMF on Tuesday forecast US economic growth will drop by a full percentage point to just 1.8% in 2025 from 2.8% last year.

For Hatzius, dollar weakness should not be confused with a loss of its reserve currency status.

"Barring extreme shocks, we think the dollar’s advantages as a global medium of exchange and store of value are too entrenched for other currencies to overcome," he writes.

Deutsche Bank believes the euro could reach US$1.30 over the remainder of the decade, from US$1.13 right now, as the dollar loses favour.