March 18th Financial News

Daily News

Summary:

Canadian Prime Minister Carney seeks to align with UK and France to counter U.S. pressure; Lebanon and Syria agree to border ceasefire…

[Quick Facts]

1. Canadian Prime Minister Carney seeks to align with UK and France to counter U.S. pressure

2. Lebanon and Syria agree to border ceasefire

3. The U.S. military launched a new wave of airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels

4. February retail sales data fuels concerns over consumer spending

5. EU is fortifying trade protection measures, contemplating restrictions on aluminum imports and scrap metal exports

[News Details]

Canadian Prime Minister Carney seeks to align with UK and France to counter U.S. pressure

During his inaugural international visit following his appointment as Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney advocated for a stronger alliance with European partners. This initiative reflects Canada's strategic objective to mitigate its reliance on the U.S., particularly amidst escalating tensions with its southern neighbor. In discussions with French President Macron in Paris, Carney emphasized the necessity for Canada to fortify its trade and security partnerships with European democracies. "I aim to ensure robust collaboration between France, and indeed the entirety of Europe, with Canada, a nation that, while not geographically European, embodies European values," he stated. Carney, who assumed office on Friday, further affirmed Canada's continued commitment to North America while simultaneously pursuing "the most constructive possible relationship with the U.S."

Lebanon and Syria agree to border ceasefire

Following discussions between the Lebanese Minister of National Defense and the head of the Syrian Ministry of Defense, addressing the evolving situation along the Lebanon-Syria border, a ceasefire agreement was reached. Intelligence agencies from both nations will maintain communication to prevent further escalation and protect civilian lives. Concurrently, a meeting between the Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs addressed the recent developments on the border, with both parties agreeing to ongoing dialogue to safeguard national sovereignty and avert a deterioration of the security situation.

The U.S. military launched a new wave of airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels

According to sources from Yemen's Houthi rebels, U.S. forces conducted airstrikes on the evening of the 17th, local time, targeting the Salif and Bajil districts within the Houthi-controlled Hodeidah province. The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that the initial U.S. strikes in Yemen involved over 30 targets, including Houthi training facilities. A U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson stated that this was "not an open-ended offensive" and was unrelated to any regime change in the Middle East. The spokesperson clarified that the operation has a clearly defined endpoint, contingent upon the Houthis' commitment to cease attacks on U.S. vessels and to stop endangering American lives.

February retail sales data fuels concerns over consumer spending

Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Monday indicated a 0.2% MoM increase in retail sales for February, following a downwardly revised 1.2% decrease in January, marking the largest decline since July 2021. This figure fell short of expectations, compounded by the downward revision of the previous month's data, intensifying concerns regarding a contraction in consumer spending.

Of the 13 categories covered in the report, 7 experienced declines, notably motor vehicles, which were anticipated to rebound after a weak January performance. Sales of gasoline, electronics, and apparel also decreased. Restaurant and bar spending, the sole service sector category in the retail report, saw its largest drop in a year.

While retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation and primarily reflects goods purchases, which constitute a relatively smaller portion of overall consumer spending, its current performance is particularly significant. This is due to the potential for tariffs imposed by the U.S. on substantial imports from major trading partners to elevate prices. The data further suggests a downturn in consumer spending, potentially exacerbated by tariffs that could reignite inflation and impede economic growth. With declining consumer confidence and notable signs of financial strain, businesses, investors, and economists are adopting a cautious outlook.

EU is fortifying trade protection measures, contemplating restrictions on aluminum imports and scrap metal exports

A draft plan from the EU indicates that the European Commission is considering import restrictions, driven by concerns that the Trump administration's metal tariffs could trigger an influx of aluminum into Europe. The plan also contemplates tariffs on domestic scrap metal exports to bolster the industry. Furthermore, the European Commission intends to introduce a new proposal by Q3 of this year, aiming to replace the existing measures, which expire on July 1, 2026, with a "tariff rate quota"-based steel trade mechanism.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 17:00 ECB Governing Council member Rehn speaks

UTC+8 17:00 ECB Governing Council member Escrivá speaks

UTC+8 20:30 Canada February CPI YoY

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. February Housing Starts YoY

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. February Building Permits

UTC+8 21:15 U.S. February Industrial Production MoM

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

Another Wall Street strategist is lowering her year-end target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC), citing economic growth concerns.

Following the S&P 500's recent 10% drawdown, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end target to the S&P 500 to 6,200 from 6,600. Calvsina's revised outlook on the S&P 500 comes after both Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research lowered their targets last week.

"While we don’t believe that a pullback beyond the 10% drawdown that has already been sustained is inevitable, we do believe that the path for stocks between now and December has gotten rockier with stronger headwinds," Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night.

A gloomier outlook on US economic growth from the RBC Capital Markets economics team contributed to the more subdued S&P 500 projection. RBC's economic forecasters now project the economy to grow 1.6% this year, down from a prior estimate of 2%. Calvsina noted that the stock market has often fallen in years when GDP is in a "sluggish" range of 1.1%-2%.

"Some economic forecasters around the Street have started to dial down their 2025 GDP forecasts, but are not calling for a recession," Calvasina wrote. "Historically, the dialing down of economic growth on its own presents a significant headwind for the stock market to overcome."

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin also highlighted a cut to GDP forecast from Goldman's economics team when moving his target to 6,200 from 6,500.

"Our revised estimates reflect the recently reduced GDP growth forecast of our US Economics team, a higher assumed tariff rate, and higher level of uncertainty that is typically associated with a greater equity risk premium," Kostin wrote.

With slower economic growth expected and several companies already trimming their first quarter forecasts, Calvasina now sees earnings per share for the S&P 500 ending 2025 at $264, lower than her team's prior projection of $271. Calvsina also projects a lower possible bear case, now seeing a potential scenario where the S&P ends 2025 at 5,550, down from a prior forecast of 5,775. The bear case would represent another 2% fall for the benchmark index from current levels.

For now, the new base case of 6,200 bakes in the idea that the S&P 500 has likely seen — or closed near —its lows for the year. But Calvasina's conviction on that call "isn't incredibly high."

Recent survey data, from both consumers and businesses, have deteriorated over the past several months as concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies have weighed on the market mood. For now, there hasn't been much feed-through from those so-called soft data points to hard data like the monthly jobs report.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Devin

Economic

Commodity

Oil’s recent descent has prompted Goldman Sachs analysts to lower their price target for the year, in part due to expectations of softer economic growth amid President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

The firm reduced its December 2025 forecast for Brent by $5 (BZ=F) to $71 per barrel.

Brent prices have fallen more than 3% year-to-date. Initiatives by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and efforts for a potential nuclear agreement with Iran have eased supply worries. Meanwhile, some economists have cut their growth forecasts amid a string of disappointing data and uncertainty over Trump's tariff policies.

“The selloff mostly reflects a shift in market focus from downside risk to Russia and Iran supply to softer US GDP growth,” Goldman Sach’s Daan Struyven wrote.

Struyven and his team expect oil demand will grow less than expected “incorporating slower US GDP growth on higher tariffs.”

Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from all countries. The European Union responded with retaliatory levies against the US.

More US tariff plans are expected to be announce in early April.

Goldman Sachs analysts also anticipate higher OPEC+ supply next quarter.

Earlier this month futures fell after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) surprised Wall Street by announcing it would bump up production in April as a first step toward unwinding its production cuts.

On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) jumped around 1% to trade above $67 per barrel while Brent also gained roughly 1% to trade above $70.

The gain came after the US indicated it would continue to launch an offensive against Iranian backed Houthi rebels until their shipping attacks in the Red Sea stopped.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

February saw a sharpselloff in tech stocks, catalyzed by chipmaker Nvidia, whose stock was batteredafter DeepSeek – the Chinese startup – released their new AI chatbot. When AIenthusiasm then waned, the tech sector suffered overall, and this was exacerbated by the economic uncertaintyimplied by President Trump’s plans to impose import tariffs on America’strading partners.

Some tech firms, however,have had a better time than others. For readers interested in online sharetrading, whether on the iFOREX platform or any other one, we offer our overviewof five of the biggest movers and shakers in the sector so far this year.

Between the beginning of2024 and mid-February 2025, Pinterest stock appreciated by 8% – considerablyless than the 26% gains recorded by the broader S&P 500 index. One of thefirm’s main challenges was that of heightened operational costs, but theirstock started to perk up in Q4 2024.

One week into February2025, Pinterest stock rose as much as 19.1% in share trading when Wall Street absorbedtheir results for the previous quarter. The firm had drawn in revenues of $1.15billion, making for year-on-year growth of 18%. Pinterest – which offers avisual platform for idea discovery – also raised their sales forecast for Q12025 from $837 million to $852 million.

CEO Bill Ready boaststhat “the platform has never been more actionable and our lower funnel focus isdriving results for users and advertisers”. Another thing Bill has going in hisfavour is a client base of monthly active members surpassing 553 million, whichbodes well for the future.

Netflix

During 2022, and then inthe excitement surrounding AI stocks, traders largely forgot about videostreamer Netflix. The company’s shares, however, gained a substantial 13% nearthe end of February 2025 for several good reasons. Traders were happily surprisedby the company’s Q4 results, which included figures like 16% revenue growth. Inaddition, Netflix added as many as 18.9 million subscribers, making the WallStreet estimate of 9.2 million pale in comparison. The company also raised itssubscription prices, which look set to drive further revenue growth.Specifically, they hiked the prices of their ad-supported tier from $6.99 to$7.99 in America in a move thoroughly approved of by JP Morgan and otheranalysts.

Netflix hosted theenormously successful fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul last year, whichwas reportedly the most watched sporting event in history. Since the firm hasdirect access to a viewer base numbering 300 million people, the field of live sportingevents could prove even more fruitful for them in times to come.

Sony

Sony’s biggest growthengine is its gaming segment, which lately churns out the popular PlayStation 5platform. Their fiscal year saw a significant drop in gaming sales in Q2, butthe following quarter saw a heartening 16% increase in sales year-on-year.Beyond gaming, the company offers services in music, film, and even financialservices, all of which experienced growth in fiscal Q3. Their earnings pershare for the quarter came in at $0.41 – better than analysts’ expectations of$0.30.

The firm raised theirrevenue forecast in February, sparking a 10.7% surge in share trading atmid-month. Now they anticipated sales for the year to come in 4% higher thantheir November estimate. All this came on the back of solid performance inSony’s gaming and music divisions in Q3. For instance, 9.5 million units of thePlayStation 5 console were sold, dwarfing predictions of only 8.2 million. Onefigure that makes CEO Hiroki Totoki particularly proud is the company’s 5%year-on-year rise in active user accounts.

Meta Platforms

The start of February waspositive for Meta, who recorded their 12th consecutive session ofshare price gains, bringing their market capitalization up to $1.8 trillion. Asto DeepSeek’s earlier shakeup of AI stocks, this actually left Meta with reasonto smile, namely that the company is “the only one of the ‘Magnificent 7’ tofocus on an open-sourced model”, in the words of Angelo Zino of CFRA Research,which we’ll explain.

Software is calledopen-sourced when its developers publicize its source code, making it possiblefor others to use and build upon it. By contrast, closed-sourced software,whose foundational code remains wrapped in mystery, functions under the controlof the developer. DeepSeek’s most recent AI model, called R1, falls under theopen-source category, and this contributed to its attractiveness. That’s because this software type is cheaper, which lowerscosts for developers, thus promoting more aggressive innovation. CEO MarkZuckerberg believes his firm’s AI assistant will become the most popular ofthem all.

Intel

Under President Biden,moves were made to bolster the US’s manufacturing prominence in the face ofEast Asian strength. The US Chips and Science Act channeled American taxpayerfunds to Intel – the only American company capable of producing AI chips. In orderto merit the continued flow of capital, however, the firm has to meet deadlinesin terms of new manufacturing activity, which is why a delay – announced at theend of February – in the opening of Intel’s semiconductor plant in Ohio wasquite disappointing.

Rewinding to mid-month,however, Intel had clocked in 23.6% gains in only one week, inspired by rumoursof a possible partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSCM) –Intel’s arch nemesis. It was also reported that the US government mightcontinue pumping capital into the newly created entity. Trump’s statedintention of protecting domestic manufacturers could bring even more benefitsto the US chip firm in months and years to come.

FinalThoughts

The tech sector is hometo some of the most pioneering companies in the stock market today. Operatingin fields like artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and cloudcomputing, they ceaselessly find means of improving the ways we work,communicate, shop, and use our leisure time. It’s widely agreed that – blipsaside – the sector will adopt a commanding role in our future society. Whetherprices are rising or falling, you can benefit from these companies’ growthstories through CFD trading on thecelebrated iFOREX CFD trading platform.

Source: ForexLive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Danske Bank

Central Bank

We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday 20 March in line with consensus and market pricing. We expect the vote split to be 6-3 with the majority voting for an unchanged decision and Dhingra, Taylor and Mann voting for a cut. Note, this meeting will not include updated projections nor a press conference following the release of the statement.

Overall, we expect the BoE to stick to its previous guidance noting that “a gradual and careful approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate“. We expect the MPC to highlight heightened uncertainty due to domestic fiscal policy initiatives and trade policy tensions. By extension, we expect them to be in no rush to alter the current guidance. Since the last monetary policy decision in February, data has been mixed. The economy continues to stagnate, the labour market is gradually loosening while price pressures continue to be elevated. The economy ended 2024 on a slightly stronger note than in the MPC’s projection, growing 0.1% q/q in Q4 2024. However, PMI data and monthly GDP estimate for January signals that growth remains muted, increasing the downside risks to the growth outlook. While private sector wage growth was slightly lower than expected at 6.2% in the three months to September (vs BoE forecast of 6.3%) it remains significantly elevated. On the inflation front, inflation was slightly higher than expected in headline terms but still showed broad based easing when looking at the service sector. The reaction to the impending increase in employers’ national insurance contribution from April remains a risk for the labour market.

Bank of England Preview – Quarterly Cuts Amid Elevated Uncertainty_1

BoE call. We expect the BoE to stick to quarterly cuts, leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% by YE 2025, which is lower than markets are expecting. Markets are pricing around 55bp for the remainder of the year. However, we highlight that the risk is skewed towards a swifter cutting cycle in 2025, given the dovish bias within the MPC.

Market reaction. We expect the market reaction to be rather muted upon announcement with an unchanged decision fully expected by markets and the BoE aiming to keep its options fully open. More broadly, we expect EUR/GBP to move lower in the coming quarters driven by a relatively hawkish BoE, and a growth pickup in the UK relative to the euro area in 2025. The key risks are continued elevated uncertainty, more euro optimism and a more forceful policy easing stance from the BoE.

Source: Danske Bank

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Saif

Economic

Retail and food services sales rose just 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), disappointing expectations for a stronger rebound following January’s contraction. Data revisions also expanded January’s contraction to -1.2% m/m from the initially reported 0.9% decline.

Vehicle and parts sales fell for the second consecutive month, weighing on the headline (-0.4% m/m). Sales at gasoline stations also posted a sizeable decline, falling by 1% from the prior month. Building materials and equipment stores’ sales edged slightly higher (+0.2% m/m), posting the first gain since September 2024.

Sales in the “control group”, which the excludes volatile components above (i.e., gasoline, autos and building supplies) fared much better than the headline, increasing by 1% on the month, fully reversing January’s drop.

Online sales rebounded 2.4% on the month, but sales were mixed across brick-and-mortar retailers. The largest gains were in health & personal care stores (+1.7% m/m). Sales also increased at food and beverage stores (+0.4% m/m) and general merchandise stores (+0.2%). On the other hand, February marked the second consecutive month that sales declined at the clothing and accessories stores (-0.6%) and sporting goods & hobby stores (-0.4% m/m).

Sales at bars and restaurants posted a large decline, falling by 1.5%, extending the disappointing performance in this category to three consecutive months.

Key Iplications

The rebound in the total retail sales was soft, but the gain in core sales was more robust, entirely reversing the January’s pullback which was likely influenced by inclement weather across much of the U.S. Still, the yo-yo like movements in the last couple of months leave core retail sales with little progress, stuck at the same level they were back in December of 2024. As a result, we expect real consumer spending to lose momentum in Q1, expanding by just 1.5% (annualized), less than half its pace in the fourth quarter of 2024.

For the year as whole, consumer spending is expected to be much softer. U.S. consumers are getting nervous about the intensifying trade fight which is fanning flames consumer anxiety about inflation. As a result, households’ confidence rapidly deteriorated in recent months. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer confidence showed year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.9% in March, up from 4.3% in February and 2.8% in December 2024. This is the highest level since November 2022, when core PCE inflation was running north of 5%. Even as the labour market continues to hold up reasonably well and household wealth is still significant, the drop in sentiment will likely manifest in weaker spending over the coming quarters.

Source: Bank Financial Group

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

ING

Central Bank

Drama aside, the Bank has – if anything – become more hawkish

Drama is not often synonymous with the Bank of England. But February’s meeting was nothing short of a bombshell. Catherine Mann, who for months had led the opposition to rate cuts, surprised everyone with her vote for a 50bp rate cut. And that posed the question: if the arch-hawk is prepared to vote for faster rate cuts, will the rest of the committee soon follow suit?

For all the excitement, the answer seems to be no. Most officials that have spoken since have struck a much more cautious tone. And looking beyond Mann’s vote, the February meeting had a more hawkish flavour. The statement talked about a “careful approach” to further easing. The new forecasts pointed to higher inflation this year, despite a sharp rise in market rates (which would normally dampen growth and price pressures).

The disagreement boils down to two things. First, Mann believes in a much more activist approach to setting policy than her peers. She was more aggressive on rate hikes, and now takes the same view on cuts. We sympathise with that view; the fixed-rate nature of UK lending (especially mortgages) means that policy changes take longer to feed through than they once did. If you believe the outlook for growth and inflation is shifting, then gradual rate cuts are initially much less effective than they once were.

And that’s the second point: Mann does believe the outlook has materially shifted. In recent comments, she has talked about the risk of “non-linear” falls in employment, in response to hefty tax hikes coming through for employers next month.

Certainly, the vibes surrounding the jobs market have gotten dramatically worse. Survey after survey has pointed to weaker hiring intentions, while talk of layoffs has increased. For now, though, that negativity hasn’t shown up in the hard data. Companies are required to report redundancies to the government via an HR1 notification. These haven’t shown any discernible uptick so far.

Redundancies haven't risen – yet

Bank of England to Hold Rates Against Backdrop of Sticky Inflation_1

Our base case is three more cuts this year

As long as that remains the case, the wider focus at the Bank will stay squarely on inflation. The simple fact is that wage growth is at 6%, while services inflation is bouncing around 5%. That’s an uncomfortable position for the BoE, even if both of those numbers should come lower through this year. Wage growth should gradually tick lower given the jobs market has cooled appreciably over recent months, irrespective of the forthcoming tax hike. Services inflation should be closer to 4%, or perhaps even below, by the summer, on account of more benign annual price hikes this spring.

For now, though, there’s little that’s happened since the February meeting that will have caused officials to shift their position. A rate cut is highly unlikely this week, given the Bank’s well-established pattern of cutting rates once per quarter. And when it comes to the vote split, we suspect we’ll get either a repeat of February’s 7-2 vote in favour of no change (with Dhingra and Mann dissenting, presumably in favour of a 25bp cut), or perhaps a 6-3 (with Alan Taylor joining calls for a cut, having done so back in December).

We expect Bank Rate to fall a bit further than markets are pricing

Bank of England to Hold Rates Against Backdrop of Sticky Inflation_2

Our base case is that the Bank continues on its current course of gradual rate cuts, with moves in May, August and November. We don’t rule out a faster pace though that would require more obvious and abrupt signs of weakening in the jobs market. We doubt the government’s Spring Statement on 26 March, where some spending cuts are widely expected, will dramatically change the story for the Bank.

Markets are still a tad reluctant to bake in those three remaining rate cuts in 2025 fully; 55bp of easing is priced by December. And despite the decent repricing lower in US rates over recent weeks, investors don’t expect rates to go any lower in 2026 or beyond. Markets are pricing a floor for Bank Rate of 3.9%, compared to our own forecast of 3.25%, which we expect to be reached by the summer of 2026.

Source: ING

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

March 18th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Rbc Lowers S&p 500 Year-end Target, Citing Economic Growth Concerns

Source: Yahoo Finance

Goldman Sachs Lowers Oil Price Target On Expectations Of Slower Gdp Growth

Source: Yahoo Finance

2025’s Top Five Tech Stocks So Far

Pinterest

Netflix

Sony

Meta Platforms

Intel

FinalThoughts

Source: ForexLive

Bank of England Preview – Quarterly Cuts Amid Elevated Uncertainty

Source: Danske Bank

US: Retail Sales Edged Higher in February

Key Iplications

Source: Bank Financial Group

Bank of England to Hold Rates Against Backdrop of Sticky Inflation

Drama aside, the Bank has – if anything – become more hawkish

Redundancies haven't risen – yet

Our base case is three more cuts this year

We expect Bank Rate to fall a bit further than markets are pricing

Source: ING

Risk Disclosure