November 5th Financial News

Daily News

Economic

Summary:

With the election just around the corner, Trump and Harris are intensifying their efforts to rally voters in key battleground states; a recent survey reveals that OPEC's oil production rose in October; ahead of the U.S. election, traders sell emerging market bond ETFs as a hedge...

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump and Harris prepare for final push in battleground states.

2. U.S. dollar sees its biggest drop since late Aug. amid Trump Trade doubts.

3. The Dow drops and the VIX rises above 20.

4. A survey shows OPEC's oil production rose in October.

5. Traders sell emerging bond ETFs as a hedge ahead of U.S. election.

[News Details]

Trump and Harris prepare for final push in battleground states

As the U.S. presidential election enters its final countdown, both Trump and Harris are making a final push in a highly competitive race. Both candidates describe the election as a critical moment for America's future.

Despite numerous shocking events that have blurred the focus of the election in recent months, voters' opinions remain highly polarized, both nationwide and in the seven key battleground states that will likely determine the outcome. The result may not be clear until a few days after voting ends on Tuesday.

According to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab, more than 80 million voters have already cast early ballots. Both candidates plan to make a last-minute push to ensure their supporters vote on Tuesday.

U.S. dollar sees its biggest drop since late Aug. amid Trump Trade doubts

On Monday, the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%, while U.S. Treasury futures saw a slight increase. The Mexican Peso rose by over 1%, leading gains among emerging market currencies. The prospect of a Trump victory had caused the dollar index to rise to a four-month high last week, but polling data ahead of Tuesday's election led some investors to scale back the so-called "Trump trade." This resulted in the largest drop in the dollar index since the end of August, while U.S. Treasury futures increased. That means bullish bets on the dollar are being revalued.

Investors believed Trump's tax cuts and high tariffs would boost economic growth and inflation, but recent polling data suggests Democratic candidate Harris may be leading in some swing states. Overall, the race remains too close to call, with risks of increased market volatility as Election Day approaches.

The Dow drops and the VIX rises above 20

On Monday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 100 points, down over 0.29%.

With the U.S. presidential election remaining highly competitive, financial markets are expected to remain volatile this week, with polls on Monday and Tuesday likely to add to market fluctuations. Recent polls show a tight race between Democratic Vice President Harris and former Republican President Trump in the 2024–2028 White House race. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 20, indicating increased market anxiety.

A survey shows OPEC's oil production rose in October

A Reuters survey found that, due to the resolution of Libya's political crisis, OPEC oil production rebounded in October from the lowest level of the year in September, despite further efforts from Iraq to comply with OPEC+ production cuts.

The survey showed OPEC's oil production in October was 26.33 million barrels per day, an increase of 195,000 bpd from September's total. Libya saw the largest increase, while Venezuela also raised production to 860,000 bpd, its highest level since 2020, according to the Reuters survey.

Traders sell emerging bond ETFs as a hedge ahead of U.S. election

With increasing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, investors pulled money out of emerging market bond ETFs in October, reflecting caution about market risk.

The iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB.US) saw $732 million in outflows in October, the largest single-month drop since March. The Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY.US) also saw $78 million in outflows.

The extra yield investors demand to own the dollar debt of emerging-market governments rather than Treasuries fell 23 basis points to around 337 basis points in October, its third straight monthly decline, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co index.

This shift is mainly due to market skepticism regarding Trump's election prospects. While markets had previously bet on Trump's victory, as Harris' support in key swing states has risen, markets are now reassessing.

As markets await the election results, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar reversed some of their earlier gains in New York trading.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 09:45 China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

UTC+8 11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia November Interest Rate Decision

UTC+8 12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's Monetary Policy Press Conference

UTC+8 14:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Oct)

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Economic

The countdown to the US presidential election is almost finished, with the polls opening on Tuesday. Market participants have been speculating about the economic agendas of both candidates for a while, trying to discount the likely market impact on the key asset classes. Putting the market analysis aside, the focus of this report is on the procedural aspect of November 5.

What is at stake on November 5?

Apart from the US presidency, with the new President officially taking over on January 20, 2025 when Inauguration Day occurs, 435 members of the House of Representative and 33 Senators will be elected. It is critical for the new president to have the support of the Congress in order to be able to implement his/her government plan. Otherwise, deadlock will ensue, tensions will remain high, with the usual political shenanigans taking place at every major issue, for example, during the debt ceiling discussion.

How is the US president elected?

Voters at each state elect electors. On December 17, the Electoral College will convene and vote for the new President. There are 538 electors with both Harris and Trump aiming to secure the support of at least 270 electors. It is worth nothing that these electors are expected to vote in favour of the candidate that earned the highest number of votes on November 5 at the state they represent.

When does voting stop?

In the majority of US states, polls will close at around 9pm ET (2am GMT). Alaska is the last to close its polls at 1am ET (6am GMT) while California has a deadline of 11pm ET (4am GMT).

Which are the safe states, where an upset could signal a surprise election result?

There are some traditional states that tend to consistently vote for Democrats or Republicans since the 1970s. For example, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming are called red states for usually voting in favour of the Republican candidate.

On the flip side, California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington tend to support the Democratic candidate.

Which are the key battleground states?

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine the election outcome. They have a total of 93 electors. In 2020, President Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, losing only North Carolina to Trump.

In 2016, Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin, but lost Nevada to Clinton.

Why TV channels “call” the states?

The Associated Press and the big US channels tend to “call” the US states for one of the two main candidates fairly quickly. This is based on actual votes, exit polls and their own analysis of the remaining votes to be counted. This is not the official result, but it is considered a very secure estimate.

Does it take a long time to count the votes?

Most states allow absentee voting and voting by mail, and they have the right to count these votes during the time that polls are still open, sometimes ever before November 5. This means that once polls are closed, they can quickly announce the results of these votes. Word of caution though as these early figures might not be representative of the final result.

Colorado, Florida and South Carolina are among the states that tend to quickly count their votes. Others like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota are usually slow in counting the cast ballots.

Who declares the results?

There is no single federal agency that tallies the results and declares the winners. This means that states will declare, officially announce the winner, wherever counting has completed. For most states this declaration will take place in the 12-24 hour window after polls close, but it can take much longer in certain cases.

When will we know the final result?

If one of the two main candidates does not have a clear lead in the swing states, it could take a few days for the final result to be declared. For example, in 2020, Biden was officially declared the winner when the Pennsylvania result was confirmed, four days after the election day.

Additionally, most of these key states automatically recount all the votes if the margin is less than 0.5% or 1%, potentially postponing the final result even further.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Economic

Political

An investor dubbed the “French whale” has sparked fascination with his lavish bets on the outcome of this year’s US presidential election. Fredi9999, as one of his accounts is known, is wagering at least $30 million that Donald Trump will win in the Polymarket prediction market.

That’s peanuts compared with what may be the biggest bet of all on the 2024 election, which is what Trump himself stands to gain — or lose. Through his ownership stake in Trump Media and Technology Group, the stakes for Trump amount to at least $4 billion, which is more than all the presidential election bets on Polymarket combined.

Trump Media, known by its ticker symbol, DJT, is broadly viewed as the one financial asset serving as a binary bet on whether Trump wins or loses the presidential race. If Trump wins, DJT, which houses the Truth Social networking app, could gain a surge of users and revenue, making it a viable social media network able to compete with the likes of X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. But if Trump loses, DJT’s already weak financials could erode further, threatening the whole business. Some investors think the stock could go to 0, imperiling the company.

Shares of DJT have been wildly volatile during the last two months, surging or crashing based on market perceptions of whether Trump is likely to win. There’s a tight correlation between Trump’s odds in betting markets and the direction of DJT shares.

Trump Has Billions Riding On Whether He Wins_1

In mid-September, for instance, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris pulled ahead of Trump in betting markets. DJT shares sank and closed September at $12.15, the lowest level since the company went public back in March.

Then Trump’s election odds improved, hitting 64% in the Real Clear Politics aggregate on Oct. 29. On the same day, DJT closed at $51.51, a 324% gain from its September low. There was no company news during that time indicating any sort of improvement in the company’s financial or operating performance, which is weak.

During the last few days, Trump’s election odds have fallen to around 55%, while DJT shares have slipped to about $31. Polls show the two candidates are essentially tied, with Harris possibly benefiting from a wisp of last-second momentum.

Trump owns 57% of DJT, and the value of his stake has yoyo-ed in proportion to the stock price and his election odds. In July, before Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, DJT’s market value was around $7.7 billion, putting the value of Trump’s portion at about $4.4 billion. At its low point in September, DJT was worth $2.4 billion, with Trump’s share at $1.4 billion. After the October surge, DJT was worth $10 billion, and Trump’s share $5.7 billion.

So from the September bottom to the October top, the value of Trump’s shares varied by $4.3 billion. That’s probably the minimum loss Trump would suffer if he loses the election, because that swing is based on a minimum DJT price of $12.15. If the stock goes to 0, Trump’s losses from peak to trough would be $5.7 billion, the value of his shares as of Oct. 29.

Trump Has Billions Riding On Whether He Wins_2

Many investors have been placing “Trump trades” on assets they think will do better or worse if Trump gets elected, including buying DJT stock outright or buying options that could pay off based on future movements in the stock price. Other Trump trades include cryptocurrency, private prisons, and gold. But it’s hard to imagine any single investor other than Trump could have more than $5 billion riding on the election outcome, making Trump the ultimate election whale.

Trump would not be losing $5.7 billion that he actually invested in the company. Trump made little or no financial investment in DJT, instead adding to its value through his personal brand and the attention he’s able to bring to its main product, Truth Social. Other investors plowed about $1 billion into the company in its startup phase, however, and they’d lose much of their principal if the stock collapses. If DJT does crater, the company could still operate as a non-public company if somebody bought it or its owners chose to take it private.

Trump would still take a massive financial hit if he loses the election and DJT craters. In late October, with DJT near its peak, Bloomberg estimated Trump’s net worth to be around $6.6 billion, and most of that was his stake in DJT. Without that stake, Trump’s net worth might be around $1 billion. That’s obviously a lot, but much of his wealth is illiquid, and if defeated, Trump would face heavy claims on his wealth long into the future.

Trump is already on the hook for an $83.3 million judgment against him in the E. Jean. Carroll defamation case and for $454 million in a New York fraud trial. Those payments are on pause as Trump appeals them. Trump is still entangled in three criminal cases that could drag on for years as legal bills pile up. Two of those cases are federal cases Trump could have dismissed if he wins the White House — but will likely have to keep fighting if he loses. The third is a Fulton County, Ga., case that Trump can’t close down even if he’s president.

If Trump loses, he would also endure reputational damage as a 78-year-old two-time presidential loser with no obvious next move. Trump stokes his fame, branding power, and fundraising ability by constantly staying in the news and frequently delighting his followers. If he fades into the background, all of that fades with him. All told, it could mark the greatest financial stake ever in the outcome of a presidential election.

Source: yahoo finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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ING

Economic

Global Macro and Markets

Global Markets: The Trump trade began to unwind yesterday on reports that Kamala Harris was leading in Iowa, a state which neither party have made a battleground, and which could be a bellwether for nearby swing states. 2Y Treasury yields fell 4.6 basis points, and 10Y yields were down 9.9bp to 4.285%. Voting starts later today, but it could be Thursday / Friday Asia time before we have more of an idea of who will likely emerge as the winner of this very tightly contested election. Markets are likely to be volatile in the meantime. EURUSD had risen sharply at yesterday’s open and traded above 1.0910 briefly before settling lower at around 1.0880. The pattern of sharp early gains followed by some subsidence was reflected in most G-10 currencies. Asian FX was mostly stronger on Monday. The THB led the charge with a 0.56% gain, followed by the SGD and CNY. USDCNY is now 7.1009. The PHP bucked the trend, rising to 58.3450. US equities were softer yesterday, probably as rising prospects for a Harris win dampened thoughts of corporate tax cuts.

G-7 Macro: OK, sure, there is some US macro data today, but let’s not pretend anyone will watch the service sector ISM data today while the final stages of this US election rage. The same goes for the smattering of European service PMI and production data. Today is all about US politics.

Australia: The RBA will meet today to consider their monetary stance. We see nothing in the recent data to shift them from their position of leaving rates at 4.35% for as long as it takes to ensure that inflation sustainably comes within their target. 100% of the Bloomberg consensus seems to agree. The statement text will be worth a look to see if the position is shifting at all, though we don’t expect any significant semantic changes.

Indonesia: 3Q GDP is due around midday today. This figure implausibly hugs 5% so tightly in most quarters, that no one looks at it very much anymore. Deviations to two decimal places are irrelevant. The consensus is for exactly 5.0%. Why not?

Philippines: October CPI inflation is released at 0900 SGT/HKT, and is expected to edge higher to 2.3% YoY, though still well within BSP’s target. What happens next with policy rates will depend not just on Philippine inflation but on how Asian currencies like the PHP respond to the US Presidential election result. A period of uncertainty lies ahead until we have more clarity.

South Korea: Consumer price inflation eased to 1.3% YoY in October from 1.6% in September, below the market consensus of 1.4%. The fall in food and energy prices (-0.7%) was the main reason for the moderation, but core inflation excluding food and energy also slowed slightly to 1.7% from 1.8% in the previous month (vs 1.8% market consensus). Last year's high base also contributed to the slowdown.

The gradual phasing out of fuel tax cuts in November and December is likely to push inflation temporarily back up to close to or above 2%. In addition, the increase in industrial electricity prices last month may continue to push up some goods prices with a time lag. Nevertheless, we continue to expect inflation to remain below 2% for most of next year, but the cumulative pressure of price hikes in utilities and public service fees will spike inflation from time to time.

We don't think today’s lower-than-expected inflation will prompt the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates at its November meeting. Although inflation is clearly trending slower, we believe that the Bank of Korea's interest rate cuts will be limited given the imbalances in financial markets. The BoK would like to monitor the impact of its earlier cut on the housing market. However, the three-month forward guidance could change in a dovish direction. At the last meeting, one board member expressed that further easing should be considered in three months. Our baseline scenario is for an April cut, which is quite hawkish compared to the market consensus, but we acknowledge that the probability of an earlier cut than our current forecast is increasing.

South Korea inflation slowed more than expected but is expected to rebound by the end of this year

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

Let’s start with the history-making possibility that a defeated president might be re-elected for the first time in 130 years.

Trump could win because…

He’s not in power

The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.

Inflation hit levels not seen since the 1970s in the aftermath of the pandemic, giving Trump the chance to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

In 2024, voters around the world have several times thrown out the party in power, partly due to the high, post-Covid, cost of living. US voters also seem hungry for change.

Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going in and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook.

Harris has tried to be the so-called change candidate, but as vice-president has struggled to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden.

He seems impervious to bad news

Despite the fallout from the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol, a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable all year at 40% or above.

While Democrats and “Never-Trump” conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he’s the victim of a political witch-hunt.

With both sides so dug in, he just needs to win over enough of the small slice of undecided voters without a fixed view of him.

His warnings on illegal immigration resonate

Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often decided by an issue with an emotional pull.

Democrats will hope it’s abortion, while Trump is betting it’s immigration.

After encounters at the border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on the immigration - and that he’s doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections.

A lot more people don’t have a degree than do

Trump’s appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and making the protection of American industry by tariffs almost the norm.

If he drives up turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states this can offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.

He’s seen as a strong man in an unstable world

Trump’s detractors say he undermines America’s alliances by cosying up to authoritarian leaders.

The former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, however, and points out that no major wars started when he was in the White House.

Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel - and think America is weaker under Biden.

A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan's, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.

Harris could win because…

She’s not Trump

Despite Trump’s advantages, he remains a deeply polarising figure.

In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.

This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor about a Trump return. She’s called him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from “drama and conflict”.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. Harris will be hoping voters - especially moderate Republicans and independents - see her as a candidate of stability.

She’s also not Biden

Democrats were facing near-certain defeat at the point Biden dropped out of the race. United in their desire to beat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from a standing start, she delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.

While Republicans have tied her to Biden’s more unpopular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant.

The clearest of these is age - polls consistently suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has flipped, and it is Trump who’s vying to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.

She's championed women's rights

This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.

Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Harris, and we’ve seen in past elections - notably the 2022 midterms - that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.

This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’s favour.

The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters.

Her voters are more likely to show up

The groups Harris is polling more strongly with, such as the college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.

Democrats ultimately perform better with high-turnout groups, while Trump has made gains with relatively low-turnout groups such as young men and those without college degrees.

Trump, for example, holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

A key question, then, is whether they will show up this time.

She’s raised - and spent - more money

It’s no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive ever.

But when it comes to spending power - Harris is on top. She’s raised more since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that her campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.

This could play a role in a razor-tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.

Source:BBC

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

Ex-President Donald Trump is darkening what is already the most dystopian closing argument in modern American history and flinging new and baseless claims that Democrats are cheating.

Vice President Kamala Harris, while warning about the perils of a Trump second term, is claiming momentum and invoking optimism and aspiration as she lays claim to a “new generation of leadership in America.”

Voters — more than 75 million of whom have already cast their ballots — are finally face-to-face with an election that could profoundly change the country and the world and that has people on both sides fearing for their way of life should their candidate lose.

Nervous tensions are coming to a boil as Trump and Harris dash through the swing states that are likely to decide a race marked by extraordinary twists that nevertheless ends with them neck-and-neck in the polls.

The former president will start Monday in North Carolina — a state Republicans expected to lock down long ago — before heading to Pennsylvania, which could end up deciding who wins. He’ll close his third presidential bid with a late-night rally in Michigan. Harris, who held her final Michigan rally on Sunday, will spend Monday in another vital blue wall state, Pennsylvania, including a big finish in Philadelphia with Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Trump is getting more extreme by the hour in outbursts that seem to augur a fresh attempt to defy the will of voters if he loses. For instance, he claimed falsely in Pennsylvania on Sunday that Democrats are “fighting so hard to steal this damn thing” and that voting machines would be tampered with, while saying he shouldn’t have left the White House in 2021.

Harris is trying to reanimate the feeling of joy and possibility that infused her early campaign rallies. On Sunday at a Black church in Detroit, she condemned those who “sow hate, spread fear and spread chaos” in a reference to her rival. “In these next two days we will be tested,” she said. “We were born for such a time as this.”

But the vice president also sought to summon the best angels of America’s nature, striking aspirational notes that her Republican foe abandoned long ago. Harris said in North Carolina on Saturday, “I have lived the promise of America. And today, I see the promise of America in everybody who is here. In all of you, in all of us. We are the promise of America.”

History is beckoning

If Trump wins on Tuesday, he will be only the second defeated president to win a nonconsecutive term. He will complete one of the most staggering political comebacks ever after trying to torch democracy to stay in power after the 2020 election, being convicted of a crime and escaping two attempts on his life this year.

Harris could shatter the line of nearly 250 years of male commanders in chief and become the first female president. It would be a stunning feat after she unified the demoralized Democratic Party in July when President Joe Biden’s reelection bid was destroyed by the ravages of age.

On the last day of the campaign, the massive stakes of the election are heightened by the sense that no one can possibly say who will win.

Polls nationally and in the vital swing states show no clear leader, reflecting a country that is polarized just as sharply as when the race started. But the possibility remains that one candidate has managed to fashion a late advantage in battlegrounds including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, and could sweep to a wider-than-anticipated win.

Democrats are encouraged by apparently strong early turnout among women voters, with abortion rights a potentially pivotal issue in the first presidential election since the Trump-built Supreme Court majority overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Harris has also worked to repair fissures in the traditional Democratic coalition, trying to appeal to Black men and Latino voters in particular.

Trump is banking on voters weary of high food and housing prices and still feeling the trauma from now-cooled inflation, and he has demonized undocumented migrants to highlight a southern border crisis. The Biden administration struggled for months to recognize the gravity of each issue and to offer effective remedies, meaning the seeds of a possible Harris defeat may have long been sown. And Trump’s team is convinced he will eat into traditional minority Democratic constituencies and again bring out people who don’t typically vote.

But there are also foreboding signs from Trump. His behavior already looks like a new attempt to try to overturn the result if he loses after his conduct following the last election led to an invasion of the US Capitol by supporters who beat up police and tried to thwart the certification of Biden’s victory. Harris has said that she’s ready to respond if the ex-president makes a premature victory declaration, and his maneuverings suggest that, absent a clear victory by either side, uncertainty over the election could last days.

The end of Trumpism — or the start of an extreme new era?

This is no ordinary election, due largely to the smoldering presence of Trump, already the most disruptive president of the modern age, who is vowing unfettered strongman rule if he wins back the Oval Office. If he follows through on his own promises, the twice-impeached Republican nominee would subject America’s governing, judicial and constitutional institutions to their greatest test in generations in a term he is pledging to root in personal vengeance.

Trump has outlined the darkest, most authoritarian platform of any presidential candidate in modern memory. He is proposing the biggest-ever mass deportation of migrants — an operation that by definition would involve law enforcement and possibly even the military in a domestic crackdown that would challenge civil liberties. He has openly considered using US armed forces against his political opponents whom he labeled “enemies from within” and vermin, emulating the language of some of history’s most notorious tyrants.

The ex-president also proposes a transformation of the economy in the name of working Americans who have flocked to his populist, nationalist message after seeing their livelihoods hollowed out by decades of globalization. But his love of tariffs risks causing a backlash that could throw the economy into reverse. Trump also plans a purge of Washington bureaucrats and gutting of agencies like the Justice Department that constrained him in his first term and that he wants to weaponize to expunge his criminal prosecutions and fulfill his personal and political whims.

More than nine years after first entering the presidential fray, Trump may be as strong politically as he has ever been. He’s crushed dissent inside the GOP and cemented his unshakable bond with tens of millions of Americans who believe he speaks for them and confounds elites who they believe disdain them.

Yet Harris heads into Election Day with a chance to end the Trump era and hand a second straight electoral defeat to a Republican Party that appeased his lies and threats to the Constitution in the hardline pursuit of power.

She is offering voters the chance to dodge the tumult and peril to the rule of law that Trump’s own campaign suggests he represents. The vice president also proposes reforms to improve the lives of working Americans — but hers are less revolutionary than Trump’s. She’s promising steps to make housing more affordable, to crack down on what she calls price gouging by supermarket giants and to guarantee better health care at more reasonable prices.

Harris has taken a risk by offering continuity at a time of deep dissatisfaction with domestic economic and political realities and growing concern in the country about a world in which tyrants are on the march. She’s also struggled to separate herself from an 81-year-old president who is deeply unpopular despite presiding over the industrialized world’s most robust economic recovery since the Covid-19 pandemic.

A campaign that exploded to life in a surge of joy is ending with the most searing warnings that Trump is a fascist who could destroy America’s democratic way of life, alienate US allies and subjugate the country’s vital national image as he genuflects to autocrats in Russia and China whom he apparently wishes to emulate.

The route to 270

Harris’ best route to the presidency runs through the Democratic blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. CNN’s Poll of Polls, averaging the last five nonpartisan surveys, shows no clear leader in any of the trio, though CNN/SSRS surveys last week indicated a narrow edge for Harris in the first two of those states and a tie in the Keystone State. If she loses Pennsylvania, Harris would need a combination of other swing states, including Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, where poll averages also show no clear leader. If Trump wins Pennsylvania — as he did in 2016 — he could take a huge step toward a second term.

The vice president’s campaign has claimed that she’s generating late momentum in the race. “It’s helpful, from experience, to be closing a presidential campaign with late-deciding voters breaking by double digits to you and the remaining undecideds looking more friendly to you than your opponent,” David Plouffe, a Harris adviser, wrote on X on Friday.

Democrats experienced a new surge of optimism on Saturday when the last poll of the campaign from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom showed Harris at 47% and Trump at 44% among likely voters in a state he won easily in 2020 and 2016. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state. But the findings, which suggested a shift toward Harris from the previous Iowa Poll in September, also showed the vice president with a strong advantage among women. If such a pattern is repeated nationwide, the vice president could be headed to victory if she can limit her deficit to Trump among White males especially.

Trump’s campaign sent out acerbic memos assailing the Iowa Poll and a set of New York Times/Siena College surveys. And the ex-president immediately used the new data to flesh out his claim that he’s a victim of a rigged election. “We’ve been waiting nine years for this, and we’ve got two days, and we got all this crap going on with the press and with fake stuff and fake polls,” he said in Pennsylvania.

But with Election Day hours away, none of the polls matter anymore. Americans are about to make their choice.

Source:CNN

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin heads into US Presidential Election week with its own battle for $69,000 and new all-time highs.

A wide order book and heightening liquidity characterize the start of what will likely be a surprising week for Bitcoin traders.

Election day is almost here, and so are warnings of a “sell the news” event once the result is in.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will come just two days later, providing another crypto volatility catalyst.

Bitcoin market cap dominance is at its highest levels in three-and-a-half years after a key monthly close.

Bitcoin network fundamentals are due to hit new all-time highs all around this week.

BTC price struggles with old resistance

Bitcoin kept bulls frustrated over the weekend as an ongoing comedown from last week’s tap of $73,500 liquidated longs.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms a weekend wick below $67,500, with BTC/USD managing only a modest rebound before running out of momentum. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Now, with the US Presidential Election due, volatility is all but guaranteed.

“Currently there's two clear areas of market liquidity & orderbook depth,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of his latest analysis on X.

“$67K - $65K : bid liquidity & bid depth $73K + : ask liquidity & ask depth.”

Skew predicted that rapid moves between the past week’s low and high could come at short notice.

“In coming days it will be very important how this market trades especially around areas of market liquidity,” he concluded.

“Quite easy to influence price & volatility between $66K & $73K given the wide orderbook.” US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart with liquidity data. Source: Skew/X

Others looked at what could come next, with popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto suggesting that another tap of all-time highs could precede a deeper BTC price correction.

“Lower timeframes looking very constructive here- $BTC looks to be forming a bottom here for that push to ATH,” he told X followers. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_3

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_3

BTC/USD 15-minute chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows increasing order book bid liquidity stacking above $67,000 into the new week. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Familiar resistance levels in play since 2021, headlined by $69,000, thus remain in play.

Election sparks Bitcoin “sell the news” warning

The 2024 US Presidential Election is here, and regardless of the result, crypto and risk-asset traders expect fireworks.

Market volatility is expected to reign supreme in the coming days, with moves both up and down on the cards.

As Bitcoin gave hodlers a taste of what might be to come over the weekend, Skew said that the environment was reminiscent of the build-up to key macro events in the past.

“Positioning decay well underway here & temporary hedges scaling into the US election,” he told X followers while analyzing perpetual swaps.

“Underweight positioning & over hedged market is something to look out for in terms of the next predatory move. Market seeks out liquidity into big events.”

In another post, Skew acknowledged that Bitcoin markets looked “more healthy” than last week during the trip to near all-time highs.

“Likely to be a taker dominated market till post US election results,” he continued.

“Slight improvement in market quoting ahead of early week trading, would need to see sustained spot premiums & spot bid to maintain price.”

Trading firm QCP Capital meanwhile had bad news for short-term BTC speculators. In its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers, it predicted a sell-off after the Nov. 5 election.

“While Trump has been favoured as the next POTUS, bets on Trump have come off significantly from a 66% high on Polymarket, to 57% for Trump and 43% for Harris,” it noted about election odds over the weekend.

“Regardless of the outcome, we believe the Elections will be another sell-the-news action, replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.”

FOMC meeting comes at a key moment for DXY

Besides the election, this week hosts another key macroeconomic date in crypto traders’ diaries: the Federal Reserve interest rates decision.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7 will show once and for all how the Fed intends to handle conflicting inflationary forces.

As Cointelegraph reported, these have come in the form of overshoots in inflation gauges combined with lukewarm employment. Last week, nonfarm payroll data came in dramatically below expectations, with the prior two months’ numbers also being revised downward.

“The Fed made it clear that maintaining strength in the labor market is taking precedent over fighting inflation,” trading firm Mosaic Asset noted in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on Nov. 3. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool confirms that markets expect a 0.25% rate cut to result from the FOMC meeting.

With risk assets tipped for volatility throughout the week, Mosaic eyed the VIX volatility index and US Dollar Index (DXY) for cues.

“The reaction to elections could drive a breakout or breakdown in DXY,” it summarized.

“If the dollar turns back lower at resistance, I believe that’s supportive of risk assets in the near-term.” US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

DXY stood at 103.82 at the time of writing, fighting to preserve a rebound that began in earnest at the start of October.

Bitcoin dominance hits classic reversal zone

Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market cap recently reached a key psychological level — and is holding it.

On Oct. 29, Bitcoin market dominance broke through 60% for the first time since April 2021. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Its performance has not gone unnoticed, as traders tend to equate a strong Bitcoin with flagging altcoins — until the trend changes.

“Bitcoin Dominance is currently around 60.51%, keeping $BTC in the 68k–70k range while altcoins drop 20-40% from recent highs,” analyst Cryptorphic wrote in an X post on the topic on Nov. 4.

“This pattern is common in bull runs, as rising BTC dominance typically pulls altcoins down. In my experience, a rejection zone between 64% and 65.81% could trigger an altcoin rally while BTC hits new all-time highs and moves sideways.” US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

Source: MartyParty

Popular commentator MartyParty suggested that Bitcoin dominance was due for a significant downtrend in line with previous halving years. A chart uploaded to X calculated that 224 days after each halving event, dominance began to drop.

Counterarguments during a subsequent debate included the presence of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) propping up BTC demand and the overall lack of interest in crypto among retail investors.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile noted that dominance had set a conspicuously bullish monthly close from the perspective of the macro price trend.

“That's a historic Monthly Close for Bitcoin Dominance,” he summarized on Nov. 1.

“The last time BTC Dominance closed like this in a macro uptrend was back in early 2019. That's over 5 years ago now.” US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Difficulty and hashrate beat records

Bitcoin difficulty is due to headline network fundamentals this week with a trip to new all-time highs.

The latest estimates from mining pool CloverPool (formerly BTC.com) see difficulty rising 5.1% at its next automated readjustment on Nov. 5. This will take it above 100 trillion for the first time. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: CloverPool

The mining difficulty thus joins the hashrate in exploring new territory as the Bitcoin mining sector emerges from the latest halving.

Meanwhile, a mining-related BTC price metric is busy setting all-time highs of its own.

As noted by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the Bitcoin Energy Value chart is on track to hit six figures.

“Bitcoin Energy Value, the value of Bitcoin in raw Joules, is knocking on $100K for the first time ever,” he revealed last week. US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

Bitcoin Energy Value chart. Source: Charles Edwards/X

Source: Cointelegraph

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November 5th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Preparing For A US Election Marathon

What is at stake on November 5?

How is the US president elected?

When does voting stop?

Which are the safe states, where an upset could signal a surprise election result?

Which are the key battleground states?

Why TV channels “call” the states?

Does it take a long time to count the votes?

Who declares the results?

When will we know the final result?

Trump Has Billions Riding On Whether He Wins

Source: yahoo finance

Asia Morning Bites

Global Macro and Markets

10 Reasons Both Harris and Trump can be Hopeful of Victory

Trump could win because…

He’s not in power

He seems impervious to bad news

His warnings on illegal immigration resonate

A lot more people don’t have a degree than do

He’s seen as a strong man in an unstable world

Harris could win because…

She’s not Trump

She’s also not Biden

She's championed women's rights

Her voters are more likely to show up

She’s raised - and spent - more money

Source:BBC

Trump offers Darkness, Harris offers Optimism on Election eve in America

History is beckoning

The end of Trumpism — or the start of an extreme new era?

The route to 270

Source:CNN

US Election vs. Fed Rate Cut — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

BTC price struggles with old resistance

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart with liquidity data. Source: Skew/X

BTC/USD 15-minute chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Election sparks Bitcoin “sell the news” warning

FOMC meeting comes at a key moment for DXY

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin dominance hits classic reversal zone

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Source: MartyParty

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Difficulty and hashrate beat records

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: CloverPool

Bitcoin Energy Value chart. Source: Charles Edwards/X

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Disclosure