Rebate For Solar System Installation Under Solaris Extended Till April 2025 — Energy Transition Ministry

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said Monday that Korea's economic growth is likely to fall below 2 percent next year, citing various downside risks, including the recent domestic political turmoil.

The Bank of Korea and other institutions had earlier projected growth of approximately 2 percent for Asia's fourth-largest economy in 2025, reflecting a slower-than-expected recovery in domestic demand amid heightened uncertainties at home and abroad.

"Given the significant downside risks, next year's growth forecast is likely to be revised downward, potentially dipping slightly below the country's potential growth rate," Choi said during a press briefing.

The minister highlighted weakened consumer sentiment following the "unfortunate incident," referring to President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief imposition of martial law earlier this month, which was overturned by the National Assembly.

"While this is not a crisis-level outlook, the expansion of uncertainties poses challenges," Choi added.

To address such challenges, the government plans to front-load 431.1 trillion won ($300.2 billion), or 75 percent of the 2025 fiscal budget of 574.8 trillion won, during the first half of the year.

Choi said the focus will be on stabilizing livelihoods and supporting socially vulnerable populations, particularly self-employed businesses mostly affected by the prolonged domestic slump.

"I have instructed for a fundamental shift in our approach to ensure that the budget can be utilized as early as Jan. 1," Choi said, emphasizing the importance of timely and efficient resource allocation.

Choi, who doubles as deputy prime minister for economic affairs, reiterated the government's commitment to maintaining credibility among foreign investors.

"Amid uncertainties in the global trade environment, especially with the inauguration of the Donald Trump administration, our focus will be on responding proactively while enhancing Korea's industrial competitiveness over the long term," Choi stated. (Yonhap)

Source: Koreatimes

(Dec 23): Bitcoin marked its first weekly decline since Donald Trump’s election victory as the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy outlook tempered optimism over the president-elect’s embrace of the crypto sector.

The largest digital asset was down more than 7% for the seven-day period through 9.27am on Monday in Singapore, the biggest such drop since September. A wider crypto market gauge, encompassing smaller tokens such as Ether and meme-crowd favorite Dogecoin, suffered a sharper decline of about 10%.

The Fed on Wednesday delivered a third straight interest-rate cut while signalling a slower pace of monetary easing next year to keep inflation in check, sending global stocks into a tailspin. The hawkish pivot also damped the speculative spirits unleashed in the crypto market by Trump’s pledge of friendly regulations and his backing for a national bitcoin stockpile. A record outflow from US exchange traded funds investing directly in bitcoin last week will weigh on prices in the near term, said Sean McNulty, the director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

“We should hold the US$90,000 (RM404,280) level for bitcoin into year end, but if we break below that, it could trigger further liquidations,” McNulty said, adding that “meaningful downside hedging” was seen in the options market last week, with large buyers for January, February and March puts in US$75,000 to US$80,000 strikes. 

The original cryptocurrency changed hands at about US$94,344, nearly US$14,000 below the record high set on Dec 17. The token is up nearly 37% since the presidential election on Nov 5.

Choppy price action in the near term ahead of a “bullish trajectory” into the first quarter of 2025 is still the “most likely scenario”, David Lawant, the head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, wrote in a note.

Lawant said a “low-liquidity environment may bring more volatility as we enter into the final days of the year, especially because on Dec 27 crypto is likely going to see the biggest options expiry event of its history”.

All eyes are on whether leveraged bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc, the former dot-com-era software maker, continues its weekly buys of the largest cryptocurrency into the US on Monday and hits the next price trigger, traders said.   

Source: Theedgemarkets

Source: Reuters

Last week that was: new highs for USD, new lows for JPY on contrasting central bank performances

Chart: EURGBP

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Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs

Some spectacular trend readings in the USD/commodity dollar pairs – these are looking very stretched, but if the current bout of risk aversion deepens badly, the US dollar can continue to extend before something gives.

The Italian confidence data framework remained mixed again in December, confirming the lack of a clear direction. Confidence weakened again among consumers and, on the business front, in manufacturing and construction, and improved in services.

Consumers increasingly concerned by economic developments and future unemployment

Consumer confidence has declined for the fourth consecutive month, driven by growing concerns about the future economic situation and future unemployment. The unemployment index has reached its highest level since November 2022. While consumers are not yet indicating a significant negative impact on household finances, they are becoming less willing to purchase durable goods. This trend is a warning signal for consumption patterns in 2025. We maintain the assumption that private consumption will be a key driver for GDP growth next year, based on the continued resilience of the labour market. However, if employment weakens, the risk of a negative surprise in consumption will increase.

Manufacturers report softening orders and increasing inventories

On the business front, the renewed weakening of manufacturing confidence is not surprising, given the recent developments in the external backdrop. In December, confidence was dragged down by a further softening in order books, both domestic and foreign, and by weaker expectations for economic developments. Manufacturers are signalling a marked increase in inventories, and a growing intention to reduce the workforce. The overall interpretation of these signals suggests that the conditions are not yet favourable for an end to the two-year-long manufacturing recession. Manufacturing has likely continued to hinder growth in the fourth quarter and is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2025.

Construction sector confirms divergence between dwellings and infrastructure

In the construction sector, confidence unsurprisingly fell on the month, reaching the lowest level since November 2022. Admittedly, the decline remains very gradual, despite the end of the generous Superbonus incentive. Two forces are likely at play here: a residual effect of the incentive as projects are being completed, and some momentum from the non-residential component as recovery fund money is being spent. The good news is that firms in the dwelling sub-sector do not signal any intention to reduce their workforce.

Services the bright spot, a candidate growth driver

The obvious bright spot in the confidence data is the service sector. After falling in November, confidence rebounded solidly in December, propelled by solid gains in information and communication and services to businesses, and by further improvements in tourism. Confidence in the retail sector confirmed recent gains, with assessments of current sales and expectations of future sales reflecting this positive trend. The service sector looks thus set to remain the growth driver of the Italian economy, at least in the short run.

Italian economy still in a soft patch as the year ends

The release confirms that the Italian economy ended the year in a soft patch. Whether it manages to post small positive quarterly GDP growth, which remains our base case, will depend on how well services can compensate for manufacturing weakness. This is likely to remain the main theme over the first part of next year. For the whole of 2025, given the likely backdrop of soft export demand, Italy's growth performance will likely depend on two factors: private consumption and the actual spending of recovery funds, where progress has been slow. We currently expect Italian GDP growth to be 0.7% in 2025 (from 0.5% in 2024) and see very limited room for upward surprises.