Stinking Retail Sales Report Sees Pound Sterling Add to Losses against Euro and Dollar

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound fell against the Euro, Dollar and other currencies after the ONS revealed a shock decline in retail sales for December.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate dropped from 1.1872 to 1.1842 in the minutes that followed news UK retail sales fell 0.3% in December. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate dropped from 1.2215 to 1.2185.

The fall is because the market was prepared for a decent bounce of 0.4% in December, which is a crucial month for the UK's retail sector.

News of the -0.3% decline represents a significant miss that confirms UK consumers are in hibernation, which poses significant downside risks to economic growth in the coming months.

Retail sales were 3.6% year over year in December, well below the consensus estimate of 4.2%.

The miss in expectations was largely down to food stores, a sector dominated by supermarkets, where sales volumes fell 1.9% on the month, putting the index at its lowest level since April 2013.

"Despite the festive season, consumers tightened their belts, with ongoing financial pressures and caution around the cost of living weighing heavily on spending," says Phil Monkhouse, UK Country Manager at Ebury. "Looking ahead, with the Bank of England holding rates at a frosty 4.75% and fresh concerns around the UK’s growth outlook, there could still be room for downside in consumer confidence."

Stinking Retail Sales Report Sees Pound Sterling Add to Losses against Euro and Dollar_1

Above: GBP dropped as the retail sales figures came out.

Retail sales data are the latest to point to the significant slowdown in economic growth that has followed the Labour Party's victory in July.

A barage of negative messages about the economy, tax rises, minimum wage rises and new red tape have sent business sentiment plummeting, and it looks as though consumer activity is also suffering.

The British Pound's decline in 2025 reflects these emerging realities on the ground. Stinking Retail Sales Report Sees Pound Sterling Add to Losses against Euro and Dollar_2

Stinking Retail Sales Report Sees Pound Sterling Add to Losses against Euro and Dollar_2

However, Lisa Hooker, an analyst at PwC, says the consumer might not be as downbeat as the headlines suggest.

"There are some positive signs of consumer spending momentum, particularly in the leisure sector. This reflects the higher disposable income of typical households following wage increases, lower inflation and lower national insurance contributions experienced in 2024," she explains.

This suggests consumers are choosing to put their money into experiences and not the shops.

Hooker says hospitality and travel have reported far better results over the period, with more returning to holidaying over the festive period.

Rising Prices to Pressure the Sector

Analysts say retailers might continue to struggle in 2025 as they look to pass on the cost of higher taxes and wages to customers.

"2025 will see a return to higher price inflation as retailers pass on the increasing cost of doing business, in particular, due to the National Living Wage and employer National Insurance contributions from April," says Hooker.

The tax on wages - National Insurance - will increase in April, while the threshold at which the tax becomes liable also increases. The minimum wage will meanwhile see a second consecutive year of above-inflation increases.

This is all paid for by businesses, with retailers being particularly prone to the increases as the sector is a major employer of those on the minimum wage.

"The lacklustre results are a triple negative for retailers as they go into 2025. The softer close to 2024, will be compounded by the growing tax burden levied by the increase in the employer’s national insurance contributions. Add to that rising customer expectations, and brands face a tough 2025," says David Paulding, VP of International at Nextiva.

The Bank of England Will React By Cutting Interest Rates

The UK recorded a below-consensus 0.1% month-on-month economic growth rate for November, while inflation unexpectedly undershot expectations by 0.1 ppt in December.

Slowing retail sales will add to signs of subdued demand, which will give the Bank of England confidence that inflation will track expectations.

Markets now think a February rate cut at the Bank is a near certainty, and see heightened chances that three further rate cuts are delivered this year.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

As US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration looms, Bitcoiners prepare for a potential price pump — a reflection of his pro-crypto promises that may include the adoption of a national Bitcoin reserve.

At the center is Senator Cynthia Lummis’ contentious BITCOIN Act of 2024, which would compel the Treasury to acquire 1 million BTC over five years in annual purchases of 200,000 BTC.

This bill has sparked intense debate among crypto pundits. While some see a Bitcoin reserve as a solution to a failing fiat monetary system, others warn of significant risks. It could slide the dollar into hyperinflation, some say. Others believe that if the US doesn’t take the plunge now, it may fall behind.

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, described the debate as a chicken-and-egg dilemma:

Should Bitcoin be adopted early because the dollar is weakening, or could adopting Bitcoin itself be the catalyst for the dollar’s decline? US Bitcoin Reserve Has Pundits in Tailspin as Trump Inauguration Looms_1

US Bitcoin Reserve Has Pundits in Tailspin as Trump Inauguration Looms_1

Source: Ki Young Ju

Pundits say US needs Bitcoin reserve to offset debt

In Suriname, independent presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe is building a campaign centered around anti-corruption. In her eyes, the solution lies in her country taking a page from El Salvador’s playbook: follow the Bitcoin standard.

Parbhoe told Cointelegraph that “endless money printing and [a] Ponzi-like banking system” has created a “loser game that leads to hyperinflation.” She believes the US has been debasing its currency for decades, “robbing its citizens of their hard-earned wealth.”

If Suriname and the US were to adopt Bitcoin, it would “end reckless fiscal policies,” as it would “force governments to live within their means and restore trust in the monetary system,” said Parbhoe.

“Failing to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset is equivalent to ignoring the internet in the 1990s. It’s financial suicide.”

Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin accelerator Jan3, is credited with convincing Parbhoe to run for president. Like Parbhoe, he told Cointelegraph that the US has a chance to free itself from crippling debt through Bitcoin reserves — if lawmakers are bold enough to follow through.

“If the US adopts Bitcoin on a meaningful scale and accumulates reserves comparable to its gold holdings, it could use the future appreciation of Bitcoin to offset or even eliminate the debt. Ultimately, it comes down to rebasing the dollar to Bitcoin.”

As Bitcoin increases in value, it could be used as a financial tool to stabilize or restructure the US economy, shifting the monetary system toward Bitcoin instead of traditional fiat currencies.

Forest Bai, co-founder of Foresight Ventures, told Cointelegraph that from a strategic viewpoint, “not adopting Bitcoin might leave the US behind in the global economic race.”

“Passing the BITCOIN Act is crucial for maintaining America’s financial leadership and ensuring economic resilience.”

Bitcoin as a reserve endangers the dollar, others fear

Last month, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley opined that funding a Bitcoin reserve by borrowing through the Treasury could raise debt costs, while using the Federal Reserve could stoke inflation.

Mow agreed with Dudley. “If the US prints money to buy Bitcoin, it risks accelerating the dollar’s slide into hyperinflation.” As an alternative, Mow suggested, “Transitioning gold reserves into Bitcoin would avoid inflationary consequences while strategically strengthening reserves.”

According to Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter, a Bitcoin reserve simply doesn’t make sense given the size of the US economy. He argued that smaller nations like El Salvador and Bhutan benefit from Bitcoin adoption, but given the US’ role as the issuer and holder of the global reserve currency, it could destabilize the financial system.

“We [the US] shouldn’t do something that would call into question our own solvency,” said Carter in a Bloomberg TV interview on Dec. 17.

“I don’t believe that it would be prudent, frankly, for the US government to signal a move away from the dollar system [and] move to a commodity standard based on Bitcoin.”

Others feel it’s a moot point altogether. Santiago Carbó, an economics professor at the University of Valencia, told Cointelegraph he doubts the bill will pass. Carbó cited Bitcoin’s inability to provide the essential feature of a reserve asset: security.

US Bitcoin reserve may take years to approve

Lummis’ BITCOIN Act was introduced to the Senate at the end of July 2024, before Trump was reelected, and allocated to the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.

It has since laid in wait.

Some speculate that Trump will issue an executive order to buy Bitcoin as soon as Jan. 20, right after his inauguration. What’s more likely, however, is that Trump’s new, carefully positioned pro-crypto lawmakers will help Lummis’ bill rise through the ranks.

Uncorroborated rumors suggest an entirely different bill that would see the Treasury acquire a mixture of US-created cryptocurrencies.

Either way, a bill like Lummis’ will likely encounter serious opposition. Cyber and digital media attorney Andrew Rossow told Cointelegraph he predicted a two-year timeline for the BITCOIN Act to pass.

However, if the bill faces no opposition, “I would anticipate 10-12 months from start to finish.”

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Economic

USDJPY slips toward key support region of 156.65.

Technical signs reflect falling buying appetite.

US CPI inflation figures due for release at 13:30 GMT.

The pair pulled lower and is currently trading slightly above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the lower boundary of a short-term bullish channel, both seen around 156.65. If that base cracks, the bears could forcefully squeeze the price toward the 154.30-154.70 zone formed by the 50-day EMA and the broken resistance trendline drawn from July’s top. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend is adding extra credence to this region, though a break below the tentative support trendline at 153.30 could be a bigger concern for the bulls. In fact, it could cause another steep downfall toward the 200-day EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 151.50.

According to the falling technical indicators, the risk is skewed to the downside, though if the 156.65 floor stands firm, the bulls may stage another battle within the 158.00-158.75 zone. A victory there would brighten the outlook, likely fueling more buying toward the 160.20 number, and then if the 161.00 mark proves easy to pierce, the focus could turn to the 162.00 area.

In brief, the upward trend in USDJPY seems to be losing power, with sellers eyeing the 156.65 region for more downside. Yet, a real bearish signal could come once below 153.30. USD/JPY at a Crossroads Ahead of US CPI Inflation_1

USD/JPY at a Crossroads Ahead of US CPI Inflation_1

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Cohen

Economic

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline, trading near 2,695, after briefly touching an intra-day low of 2,690. This drop reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts during its next meeting. A stronger US dollar, recovering from its earlier one-week low, further weighed on gold prices, dampening its safe-haven appeal.

US economic data added to the bearish sentiment for gold. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in December, with the annual inflation rate increasing to 2.9% from 2.7%.

Core CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed to 3.2%, slightly exceeding market expectations. While the Fed’s potential for further rate cuts could support gold later in the year, the current policy stance limits its upside.

US Treasury bond yields eased from their 14-month highs, offering some relief to gold. Additionally, uncertainties around global trade policies and geopolitical tensions have tempered selling pressures, keeping gold from deeper declines.

Silver Shows Modest Gains

Silver (XAG/USD) gained mildly, trading at 30.64, supported by a weaker dollar and easing bond yields. The metal benefits as an alternative safe-haven asset amid mixed market sentiment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Market optimism regarding potential Fed policies has capped significant gains for silver, but its resilience highlights sustained investor interest.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is trading at 2694.63, below its pivot at 2697.33, signaling bearish momentum. Silver holds steady at 30.64, remaining bullish above 30.55.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold prices are hovering around 2694.63, reflecting a slight 0.06% dip for the day. The metal remains below the key pivot point at 2697.33, signaling a cautious bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance is positioned at 2720.76, with further barriers at 2745.74, while immediate support is observed at 2658.80, followed by a deeper level at 2633.37.

The 50-day EMA at 2668.35 reinforces short-term support, aligning with the broader bullish structure, while the 200-day EMA at 2652.12 highlights long-term stability. A sustained break above 2697.33 could shift momentum toward the upside, targeting higher resistance levels. Conversely, failure to reclaim the pivot may invite selling pressure, driving prices toward support at 2658.80.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver is trading at 30.64, down 0.07%, reflecting a steady consolidation near its pivot point at 30.55. The metal remains bullish above this level, with immediate resistance at 31.09 and higher targets at 31.75. Conversely, a break below the pivot could trigger a bearish correction, testing support levels at 29.52 and potentially deeper at 28.79.

The 50-day EMA at 30.03 offers short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at 30.24 underscores the broader trend. The slight gap between these EMAs highlights a cautious market sentiment. Traders should monitor the pivot closely, as a move above 30.55 could signal a stronger rally, while a dip below it may shift momentum toward the downside.

Source:FXStreet

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Cohen

Economic

The bank also developed a programme to allow people to make installed payments in either dollars or pesos. The move aims to “bolster currency competition in order to allow people and businesses to use the currency they wish in their daily transactions”, according to a central bank statement on Thursday.

Separately, the bank decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 32% on Thursday, frustrating investors’ growing bets on another borrowing cost cut, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Bloomberg Linea first reported the key rate news on Thursday.

Financial markets had expected a rate reduction after December’s annual inflation slowdown and the central bank’s decision to lower the official currency’s monthly depreciation rate to 1% from 2%.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo added in a post on X that starting from Friday, businesses will be able to post price tags for goods and services in dollars or other foreign currency — alongside the cost in pesos.

Argentina Takes Steps to Dollarise and Holds Key Rate_1

During his presidential campaign, Milei promised to encourage currency competition in South America’s second largest economy, a plan that was widely known as “dollarisation”. The proposal sparked criticism from the opposition because it was seen as impossible amid a shortage of greenbacks. Still, Thursday’s announcement points in the direction of Milei’s pledge.

Argentina still keeps a litany of capital and currency controls in place. Milei has promised to lift those restrictions this year, which could force the central bank to provide more attractive interest rates to stave off a possible currency run.

The International Monetary Fund, which Argentina is hoping will lend it more money to help to lift controls, has long been a proponent of borrowing costs well above inflation.

Government data released on Tuesday showed prices rose 2.7% in December from November, the third straight month below 3% and in line with the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Annual inflation eased to 117.8%, down from a peak of near 300% last year.

The central bank has cut rates eight times since Milei took office in December 2023, when borrowing costs were 133%. The strategy has become one of the most unorthodox parts of Milei’s strategy to slow inflation.

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Source: Theedgemarkets

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Economic

In 2024, Africa’s economic and political importance grew significantly, laying a strong foundation for 2025 to be a transformative year for the continent. With headline economic growth reaching approximately 3.2%, Africa ranked among the fastest-growing regions globally. The continent has been addressing critical issues such as climate change, supply chain disruptions and energy transitions by embracing localised and innovative solutions. At the same time, Africa is proactively reshaping its economic identity, positioning itself as a key player in global trade, finance and sustainability efforts.

Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, including solar and wind resources, mineral wealth such as lithium and cobalt, and untapped markets in agriculture and technology, make it indispensable to global efforts towards climate resilience and economic growth. Africa’s demographic advantage is also unmatched. By 2050, the continent will house the world’s largest working-age population, thus instilling a sense of optimism about Africa’s future.

Private sector interest

Africa’s increasing economic appeal is evident in the private sector’s growing interest in the continent. Multinational corporations, financial institutions and venture capital firms recognise the vast opportunities presented by Africa’s resource wealth, expanding markets and consumer demand. This private sector momentum can be expected to accelerate in 2025.

Key sectors, such as renewable energy, technology and financial services, attract healthy investor interest. Companies like TotalEnergies and Enel Green Power are scaling up green energy projects, while global financial giants like JP Morgan Chase and Mastercard are establishing a more substantial presence. Africa’s fintech ecosystem, now valued at over $3bn, has emerged as a hub for innovation, with startups successfully drawing funding from continental and international investors. These trends reflect growing confidence in Africa’s capacity to deliver returns on investment.

Unlocking growth potential amid challenges

To realise its potential in 2025, Africa must tackle entrenched structural constraints, including fragmented regulatory frameworks, an underdeveloped financial sector, inadequate infrastructure and the burden of unsustainable debt levels.

Operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area is poised to be a game-changer. By establishing the world’s largest free trade area by member countries, AfCFTA promises a unified market for goods and services, unlocking regional integration and paving the way for financial harmonisation. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, a critical enabler under AfCFTA, is maturing rapidly. It is already facilitating cross-border transactions in local currencies, reducing reliance on foreign exchange reserves and lowering transaction costs. This innovation is particularly impactful in the growing fintech and sustainable finance sectors, where cost efficiency and accessibility are paramount.

Africa’s capital markets are also witnessing notable progress. Egypt and Nigeria have successfully issued green bonds, attracting billions in investments from global investors prioritising sustainability. These efforts signal the continent’s growing ability to align with international trends in sustainable finance. Meanwhile, initiatives to integrate stock exchanges in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa are improving market liquidity, reducing investment barriers and fostering regional co-operation.

Banks are equally instrumental in driving growth and resilience. Institutions such as Access Bank Group and Standard Bank are scaling operations across the continent, providing much-needed credit to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Since SMEs account for up to 90% of businesses and contribute significantly to African employment, this support is crucial for job creation and economic diversification. These developments reflect Africa’s increasing capacity to navigate challenges and build a robust financial ecosystem.

Africa’s digital transformation

Collaborative ecosystems will be crucial in 2025, and the digitalisation of financial systems is instrumental in fostering these ecosystems. Platforms such as Flutterwave, M-Pesa and Chipper Cash are driving the fintech revolution. These platforms facilitate seamless payments, expand credit access and enable financial inclusion, especially in underserved rural areas.

Collaborative public-private partnerships are also addressing infrastructure and connectivity gaps. For example, US-backed programmes aim to connect millions of farmers and SMEs to the digital economy, highlighting the importance of integrated solutions over siloed approaches.

G20 leadership and global partnerships

In 2024, Africa solidified its position at the forefront of global climate efforts, becoming a pivotal voice in shaping the sustainability agenda. South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025 now provides an opportunity to amplify Africa’s influence on the international stage. Among its key priorities is establishing a Global Cost-of-Living Commission to address the skyrocketing food and energy prices – issues disproportionately affecting vulnerable economies. This initiative could provide a much-needed lifeline to nations grappling with external shocks, including inflation, supply chain disruptions and the economic fallout of climate change. The presidency also underscores Africa’s call for more equitable financial governance in institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to increase voting rights and representation for African countries.

Partnerships with developed nations are evolving from aid dependency towards investment-driven collaborations. The replenishment of multilateral funds such as the International Development Association and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust offers critical support for Africa’s development trajectory. These mechanisms are set to finance vital infrastructure projects, bolster climate resilience initiatives and underpin social development programmes, ensuring the continent is better equipped to navigate persistent challenges while capitalising on emerging opportunities.

Strategic initiatives like Italy’s Mattei Plan – which advocates for equitable and sustainable partnerships between Europe and Africa – highlight the growing recognition of Africa’s global importance. This plan emphasises energy, sustainability and development investments rather than resource extraction, signalling a shift towards mutual benefit and long-term co-operation.

Furthermore, commitments from key partners, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative, South Korea’s technology transfer programmes and the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, emphasise Africa’s rising geopolitical and economic significance. Brics nations have also demonstrated their support for Africa’s growth through enhanced trade agreements, capacity-building programmes and the establishment of the New Development Bank, which increasingly focuses on funding African development priorities.

With strategic leadership and well-aligned partnerships, Africa’s role in global economic and governance frameworks is poised for significant advancement in 2025. This is an opportunity for the continent to address its immediate challenges and a moment to shape a more equitable and sustainable global order.

Action points for Africa’s financial leadership

To solidify its position in global finance, Africa must prioritise actionable strategies across three key domains: strengthening its financial sector, fostering continent-wide partnerships, and advancing systemic reforms at the regional and global levels. These efforts will build resilience and position Africa as a proactive agent in shaping its economic future.

First, enhancing the efficiency and inclusivity of Africa’s financial sector is critical. The continent’s financial industry benefits from increased competition by encouraging diverse service providers, such as fintech startups and non-bank financial institutions, to challenge traditional banking models. Expanding access to digital financial services – such as mobile banking, e-wallets and digital payment platforms – can empower underserved populations, especially in rural areas, while stimulating grassroots economic activity. Notably, mobile money services like M-Pesa have already demonstrated their transformative potential. Complementing these efforts with financial literacy campaigns and consumer protection frameworks will build trust, safeguard users and reinforce the system’s resilience against shocks.

Second, partnerships must transition into strategic, outcome-driven collaborations. Public-private partnerships should focus on bridging critical infrastructure and digital connectivity gaps, emphasising integrating rural and underserved areas into the broader economy. For example, initiatives like the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy 2030 can be blueprints for leveraging connectivity to unlock economic growth. At the same time, intra-continental mechanisms like the AfCFTA and the PAPSS must be fully operationalised to harmonise markets, reduce trade barriers and facilitate seamless cross-border commerce. Partnerships with global stakeholders can further catalyse funding for transformative infrastructure projects, renewable energy initiatives and digital inclusion programmes.

Finally, systemic reforms are essential to address the continent’s structural challenges. Regional coordination on key issues, such as debt sustainability and financial governance, is crucial. Many African nations grapple with unsustainable debt levels, requiring innovative debt restructuring mechanisms and sound fiscal and monetary policies to alleviate financial strain. On the global stage, Africa must intensify its push for equitable representation in international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Securing greater voting rights and influencing global policy decisions will ensure that Africa’s specific priorities – such as climate finance and development funding – are adequately addressed.

By uniting around these priorities, Africa can become a cornerstone of international economic and climate strategies. Bold, coordinated action will turn aspirations into tangible achievements, positioning 2025 as a year of transformation and leadership. The narrative is shifting, and Africa’s time to lead has arrived.

Udaibir Das is a visiting professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, senior non-resident adviser at the Bank of England, senior adviser of the International Forum for Sovereign Wealth Funds, and distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America. He was previously at the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund.

Source:OMFIF

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Warren Takunda

Economic

This is according to Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING Bank, who explains, "EUR/USD appears to have found a short-term anchor at the 1.0300 handle."

Monday's presidential inauguration brings risks aplenty for foreign exchange markets, which will be asked to find appropriate levels for those currencies belonging to countries and trading blocs that tariff hikes could damage.

Pesole says that at current levels, Euro-Dollar embeds a 2.5-3% risk premium (i.e. undervaluation), suggesting markets are prepared for the Eurozone to suffer an economic hit as new policies are unleashed.

Markets have nevertheless paused their chase of EUR/USD to lower levels as there are growing risks of upside surprises if Trump is less 'hawkish' on trade than previously expected.

Pesole says he prefers to "lean against another big leg lower in the pair" but that the undervaluation in the Euro won't be materially trimmed until more clarity on Trump’s protectionism policy emerges.

Foreign exchange markets are readying for Trump's 'day one' proclamations, which will provide some finality following weeks of speculation.

Financial news pages have been awash with contradictory reports about the extent and nature of tariffs. The rule of thumb is that a blanket tariff on all imports is the most bullish outcome for the Dollar. Other currencies tend to recover on reports that Trump will be more nuanced, preferring to use the tariff threat as a negotiating stance.

Analysis from Deutsche Bank suggests markets might still be underestimating the looming Trump shake-up.

"Our conclusions are not optimistic: despite recent moves, the market is not pricing sustained macro divergence between the US and the rest of the world, nor a big trade war," says George Saravelos, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Saravelos says his analysis doesn't try to predict what Trump will do; rather, he looks at how much "policy premium" is being reflected in currencies most exposed to a potential regime break:

The best placed:

Australian DollarSwiss Franc

Vulnerable to tariffs:

EuroChinese Yuan

Vulnerable to higher global interest rates

PoundNew Zealand Dollar

With the market not yet fully priced for Trump, Deutsche Bank are chasing further weakness.

"We enter 2025 maintaining our dollar bullish view," says Saravelos. "The greenback has potential to exceed itsVolcker all-time highs, equivalent to a EUR/USD drop to 0.95."

Although the outlook poses significant downside risks for the Euro against the Dollar, Saravelos says this is also a yearto remain open-minded: extended positioning and the potential for verbal intervention from Trump are the most immediate near-term dollar risks.

"Our views are almost certain to change as President Trump decides which policy norms he will ultimately break," he adds.

The tariff risk premium that is priced in across a range of metrics is not especially large, according to Deutsche Bank's research, "and we expect market pricing to be front-loaded as Trump unveils a range of executive tariff investigations," explains Saravelos.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Stinking Retail Sales Report Sees Pound Sterling Add to Losses against Euro and Dollar

Above: GBP dropped as the retail sales figures came out.

Rising Prices to Pressure the Sector

The Bank of England Will React By Cutting Interest Rates

Source: Poundsterlinglive

US Bitcoin Reserve Has Pundits in Tailspin as Trump Inauguration Looms

Source: Ki Young Ju

Pundits say US needs Bitcoin reserve to offset debt

Bitcoin as a reserve endangers the dollar, others fear

US Bitcoin reserve may take years to approve

Source: Cointelegraph

USD/JPY at a Crossroads Ahead of US CPI Inflation

Gold (Xau) Silver (Xag) Daily Forecast: Cpi Data And Bond Yields Shape Market Trends

Market Overview

Silver Shows Modest Gains

Short-Term Forecast

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Source:FXStreet

Argentina Takes Steps to Dollarise and Holds Key Rate

Source: Theedgemarkets

Outlook 2025: Crucial ‘Bridge Year’ For Africa To Lead On The Global Stage

Private sector interest

Unlocking growth potential amid challenges

Africa’s digital transformation

G20 leadership and global partnerships

Action points for Africa’s financial leadership

Source:OMFIF

Euro-Dollar Poised for Trump "Day One" Announcements

Source: Poundsterlinglive

Risk Disclosure