Sunset Market Commentary

Economic

Summary:

The week started off with some Bund underperformance, both vs US Treasuries and UK gilts.

Markets

The week started off with some Bund underperformance, both vs US Treasuries and UK gilts. With the front end adding up to 7 bps, European money markets are slightly paring bets on ECB rate cuts. The terminal rate in the recent repricing was brought down to less than 2%. Such a supportive monetary policy stance isn’t something we consider necessary based on the current economic data, even if the picture isn’t particularly rosy.

This week’s (German) PMI’s (on Friday) serve as a reality check and will be watched closely for signs of the economy further bottoming out. Greek Governing Council member Stournaras said in any case ”there’s going to be a number of cuts” and advocated going in steps of 25 bps, the next one all but certain to happen in December. Stournaras said borrowing costs could be close to 2% toward the end of next year. The UK curve joined the bear flattening move in Europe but the US parted ways. US rates were flat (3-yr) to 4 bps (30-yr) higher in a steepening move. Stocks trade on the backfoot in Europe and open mixed on Wall Street. The Nasdaq ekes out a small gain. Tech-heavyweights Tesla and Nvidia more or less cancel each other out with the former rising on speculation president-elect Trump will ease self-driven car rules. The latter slides over an overheating problem with its most recent chip ahead of Wednesday’s earnings release.

Currency markets are uninspired. The Japanese yen underperforms on a speech by Ueda. The Bank of Japan governor kept the cards close to his chest, not offering any particular hint on a potential rate hike at the December meeting. USD/JPY recoups some of Friday’s gains but remains sub 155. The euro is generally better bid after a horrible two first weeks in November, though we remain cautious on its upside potential. EUR/USD rises to 1.057. EUR/GBP builds on Friday’s momentum to trade around 0.837 ahead of UK inflation numbers on Wednesday and retail sales and PMI’s on Friday. The greenback on a trade-weighted basis is on track for a back-to-back loss to 106.5.

The crypto market captured some headlines with Bitcoin trading back above the 90k barrier. Gas prices on commodity markets hit a new one-year high as supply concerns add to higher demand. Oil prices rebounded the recent lows just north of $70/b (Brent) as well.

News & Views

Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis said at a Bloomberg event that Athens is planning to repay next year at least €5bn of debt outstanding under the Greek loan facility with maturities ranging from 2033 to 2043. Before year-end the Greek government will still conclude a €7.9bn repayment of floating rate debt (also under GLF) which matures in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Greece has already paid back loans worth €5.3bn in December 2023 and €2.65bn in December 2022 thanks to good growth and the high primary surpluses it is running. The Greek debt ratio is on a downward path since peaking at 207% of GDP in 2020. Next year, it is expected to drop below 150% of GDP. Improving public finances helped the country regain its investment grade status at S&P and Fitch at the end of last year after losing it at the start of the EMU sovereign debt crisis.

The Czech National Bank published remarks on a panel discussion in which CNB governor Michl took part last Thursday. He reiterated his view that we are now entering a phase of higher inflation volatility around central bank targets, with an upside risk. Some degree of restriction is necessary to ensure low core inflation. Looking ahead, core inflation may need to be slightly below 2%. Since this is not reflected in the CNB’s current outlook, they are already discussing the appropriate time to pause rate cuts, likely at the next, December, policy meeting. The CNB cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4% in November with neutral rates estimated to be at least 3.5%. EUR/CZK trades a tad weaker today, at 25.30.

Source: KBC Bank

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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ING

Economic

Commodity

Energy – Russian pipeline gas continues to flow

Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent setting almost 3.2% higher. A softening in the USD supported most of the commodities complex. However, for oil, a halt of production at the 755k b/d Johan Sverdrup field in Norway due to a power outage, and a drop in production at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan provided further upside. In addition, geopolitical risks between Russia/Ukraine have increased after the US said it would allow Ukraine to carry out long-range missile strikes on Russia.

Despite the strength in the flat price yesterday, the prompt WTI time spread flipped into contango, which points towards a market that looks better supplied. Globally, our balance shows that the market will be in surplus through 2025. However, the size of the surplus depends on what OPEC+ decide to do when it comes to output policy for next year. The group will likely decide on this at their next meeting on 1 December.

In natural gas markets, European prices only edged a little higher yesterday (TTF settled 0.75% up on the day) despite Gazprom deciding to stop supplying gas under its long-term contract with the Austrian energy company, OMV. The halting of this supply was due to OMV saying it would not pay Gazprom for imports to recoup EUR230m in damages it was awarded in an arbitration. OMV said that potentially 5TWh per month of supply is at risk, which is roughly 500mcm (or less than 20mcm/day). However, while Gazprom has stopped supplying OMV under its long-term contract, we have not seen any meaningful drop in Russian pipeline flows to Europe yet. This suggests that Gazprom is still selling into the spot market in Europe. It is still important to remember that all Russian pipeline flows transiting Ukraine will likely stop at the end of this year when Gazprom’s transit deal with Ukraine expires, which is equivalent to around 15 bcm of annual supply.

Agriculture – Sugar rises on Brazil mill closures

Sugar prices extended gains for a third straight session yesterday due to the prospects of sugar mills in Brazil having to shut earlier than expected for the season due to above-average rainfall. While this may impact short-term supply, the rainfall should prove beneficial for 2025/26 sugar production with the crush officially getting underway in April.

The USDA’s weekly export inspection data for the week ending 14 November shows that US corn shipments rose while soybean and wheat exports eased over the last week. Export inspections for wheat stood at 196.3kt over the week, lower than 353.4kt in the previous week and 378kt reported a year ago. Similarly, US soybean export inspections stood at 2,165kt, down from 2,363kt a week ago but up from the 1,631.5kt reported a year ago. For corn, US export inspections came in at 820.6kt, compared to 797.2kt from a week ago and 601kt reported a year ago.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FxPro

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Market Picture

The crypto market capitalisation hit a new high of $3.09 trillion on Monday morning (+1% in 24 hours), driven by altcoins. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index reached 90 over the weekend, with the index only higher in late 2020 and early 2021. By Monday, the index had fallen back to 83, still consistent with extreme greed.

The Altcoin Season Indicator has now risen from 23 on 4th November to 42, thanks to optimism around XRP and Dogecoin. Cardano is also gaining momentum.

XRP topped $1 for the first time in three years. On Saturday, the token climbed above $1.2, as it is sensitive to Gary Gensler’s possible departure. Under his leadership, Ripple has been in a constant legal battle with the SEC.

Bitcoin drifted down 3% on Saturday and Sunday, but on Monday, a 4% surge above $91,500 took it above this consolidation area. Institutional traders are activating at a time when retail traders are starting to lock in profits in Bitcoin and moving into altcoins.

Cryptocurrencies are perhaps the most notable market where retail is profiting at the expense of institutional rather than the other way around.

News Background

According to SoSoValue, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs totalled $1.67 billion last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows. Cumulative inflows since the launch of bitcoin ETFs in January rose to $27.46 billion.

Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $515.2 million last week, a record high since the funds were approved on 23rd July, which brings the total net inflows since the product launch to $178.4 million.

The distribution of implied volatility in the Bitcoin options market suggests a high probability of trading at lower levels. “The deleveraging risk could be significant,” Blofin warned.

A bill to create a Bitcoin reserve is up for a vote in the US Congress. It involves purchasing 1 million BTC (up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years). The Fed’s gold reserves will be used for this purpose. Speculation on this issue could be an important driver of Bitcoin’s rise against gold.

Solidion Technology, a manufacturer of electric batteries and components, announced that it will convert some of its cash reserves into bitcoin. The company plans to use 60% of its excess cash, all of its money market interest income and some of its future capital raising to buy the first cryptocurrency.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Short selling is a popular trading strategy, especially among experienced traders looking to profit from a decline in stock prices. It involves borrowing shares of a stock, selling them at the current price, and then repurchasing them later at a lower price to return to the lender, pocketing the difference. However, when it comes to shorting stocks priced under $5, there are several important factors to consider, including liquidity, volatility, and borrowing constraints.

This article explores whether it's possible to short sell stocks under $5 and the unique risks and strategies involved.

Understanding Short Selling

Before diving into the specifics of short selling low-priced stocks, it's essential to understand how short selling works:

Borrowing Shares: Traders borrow shares of a stock from a brokerage or another investor.

Selling the Shares: These borrowed shares are sold on the market at the current market price.

Repurchasing the Shares: The trader aims to buy back the shares at a lower price.

Returning the Shares: The trader returns the shares to the lender and keeps the profit (if the repurchase price is lower).

This strategy can be lucrative in a falling market, but it carries significant risks, especially with stocks priced under $5.

Can You Short Sell Stocks Under $5?

Yes, you can short sell stocks priced under $5, commonly referred to as "penny stocks." However, doing so comes with specific challenges and considerations:

1. Liquidity Issues

One of the primary concerns when short selling stocks under $5 is liquidity. Liquidity refers to how easily a stock can be bought or sold without causing a significant price change. Stocks with lower prices tend to have lower trading volumes, meaning there are fewer buyers and sellers. This can make it difficult to enter or exit a position, and a lack of liquidity can lead to slippage, where the execution price is worse than expected.

2. Borrowing Stocks Under $5

Another challenge when short selling penny stocks is finding shares to borrow. In order to short sell, you need to borrow shares from a brokerage or another investor. However, stocks under $5 may be less likely to have shares available for borrowing. Low-priced stocks are often less in demand, which means fewer institutional investors are willing to lend them out. This makes shorting penny stocks harder to execute and more expensive if shares are available.

3. High Volatility

Stocks under $5 are typically more volatile than higher-priced stocks. This means their prices can swing wildly within short periods, which creates both opportunities and risks for short sellers. While volatility can amplify profits if the stock price drops, it can also increase the potential for significant losses if the stock price moves against your position. Penny stocks are notorious for unpredictable price movements, making short selling in this space especially risky.

4. Risks of Shorting Penny Stocks

Short selling is inherently risky, but the risks are magnified when dealing with low-priced stocks. Here's why:

Unlimited Losses: When you short sell, your potential losses are theoretically unlimited because the price of a stock can rise indefinitely. This is particularly dangerous with volatile penny stocks, which can experience rapid and unexpected upward movements.

Short Squeeze: A short squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted stock suddenly rises, forcing traders to buy back shares to cover their positions, which pushes the price even higher. Penny stocks are often subject to short squeezes because their low float (number of available shares) can be easily manipulated.

Brokerage Restrictions: Many brokerages have strict rules about shorting low-priced stocks, especially those priced under $5. Some brokerages may require higher margin requirements or impose additional restrictions on trading these stocks.

5. Strategies for Short Selling Stocks Under $5

Despite the risks, some traders still choose to short stocks under $5, typically using specific strategies to mitigate potential losses:

Use Stop-Loss Orders: A stop-loss order automatically triggers a buy order if the stock price rises to a certain level, limiting potential losses. This can be especially important when short selling volatile penny stocks.

Trade with Caution: Given the high volatility and potential for unpredictable price moves, it’s important to start small when shorting penny stocks and increase your position size only once you gain more experience and confidence.

Focus on Overbought Stocks: Shorting stocks that have surged in price due to hype or speculation can be an effective strategy. These stocks are more likely to experience a price correction, presenting opportunities for short sellers.

Monitor News and Sentiment: Penny stocks can be heavily influenced by news events, rumors, or social media trends. Staying informed about news and sentiment in the market can help you predict when a stock might drop, allowing you to time your short sale more effectively.

Conclusion

Short selling stocks under $5 is possible, but it is not without significant challenges and risks. Low liquidity, difficulties borrowing shares, high volatility, and the potential for short squeezes all make trading penny stocks much riskier than trading higher-priced stocks. However, with proper research, risk management, and a disciplined approach, traders can still profit from shorting penny stocks.

Before diving into short selling low-priced stocks, it's important to fully understand the risks involved and to practice with a demo account or small positions to build experience. As with any trading strategy, short selling requires careful planning, a solid understanding of the market, and a readiness to accept potential losses.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

In today's global economy, the wealthiest nations are measured not just by their gross domestic product (GDP) but also by GDP per capita, which reflects the economic prosperity of their citizens. Some countries are blessed with natural resources, while others have built their wealth through innovation, industry, and robust financial systems. Understanding these nations’ economic standing provides valuable insights into how wealth is created and sustained on a global scale.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the richest countries in the world and what contributes to their incredible wealth.

1. Luxembourg

GDP per capita: $145,000

Luxembourg, a small European nation, tops the list with an impressive GDP per capita. Despite its size, it is a financial powerhouse, housing numerous international banks, investment firms, and corporations. The country benefits from favorable tax policies, which attract businesses and investors. Additionally, Luxembourg has a high standard of living, excellent healthcare, and a thriving tech sector.

2. Switzerland

GDP per capita: $94,000

Switzerland has long been known for its banking industry, neutrality in global conflicts, and high quality of life. With a strong economy driven by finance, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods, Switzerland remains one of the richest countries in the world. It has low unemployment, high wages, and is home to some of the most innovative companies globally, including Nestlé and Novartis.

3. Ireland

GDP per capita: $105,000

Ireland has rapidly transformed into one of Europe’s wealthiest nations, thanks in part to its favorable corporate tax rates. The country has become a hub for major global corporations, particularly in the tech and pharmaceutical industries, with giants like Apple, Google, and Pfizer having major operations there. Ireland’s economic growth has been impressive, with a high standard of living and a thriving cultural scene.

4. Norway

GDP per capita: $85,000

Norway benefits from its vast natural resources, including oil and gas, which contribute significantly to its wealth. The country has invested its oil revenues into a sovereign wealth fund, ensuring long-term economic stability. Norway also boasts a high level of education, healthcare, and social services, providing its citizens with an excellent quality of life.

5. Qatar

GDP per capita: $60,000

Qatar’s wealth is largely derived from its vast natural gas reserves, making it one of the richest countries per capita globally. The country has used its resources to diversify into infrastructure, real estate, and tourism, turning its capital, Doha, into a major economic and cultural hub in the Middle East. Qatar’s low unemployment and high wages make it an attractive destination for skilled labor.

6. United States

GDP per capita: $75,000

The United States, with its diversified economy, is home to the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP. The country is a global leader in technology, finance, entertainment, and agriculture. Silicon Valley has birthed some of the world’s largest tech companies, while Wall Street continues to dominate the financial markets. The U.S. also benefits from its large population, advanced infrastructure, and innovative spirit.

7. Singapore

GDP per capita: $75,000

Singapore is a major global financial center, known for its strict laws, political stability, and open economy. The nation’s wealth is driven by international trade, finance, and high-tech industries. As a hub for global commerce in Asia, Singapore boasts a low unemployment rate, a highly educated workforce, and one of the highest standards of living in the world.

8. Brunei

GDP per capita: $79,000

Brunei’s wealth is primarily derived from its oil and natural gas reserves. The small nation has used its resources to create a strong sovereign wealth fund, ensuring the prosperity of its citizens. Brunei enjoys a high level of income equality, excellent healthcare, and free education, with its citizens benefiting from extensive government services.

9. United Arab Emirates

GDP per capita: $43,000

The UAE has experienced rapid economic growth thanks to its oil wealth, but it has diversified significantly into sectors like real estate, tourism, and finance. Dubai, in particular, has become a global financial hub and tourist destination, attracting millions of visitors annually. The UAE’s vast infrastructure projects, including the Burj Khalifa, symbolize the country’s impressive economic expansion.

10. Saudi Arabia

GDP per capita: $56,000

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest oil producers, and its oil exports contribute significantly to its wealth. In recent years, the country has focused on diversifying its economy, with major investments in technology, entertainment, and infrastructure. Saudi Vision 2030 aims to reduce the country's dependence on oil and create a more sustainable economy.

Conclusion

The richest countries in the world showcase the variety of ways in which nations can build wealth. Whether through natural resources, financial sectors, or cutting-edge technology, these nations have developed strategies that maintain their economic power and prosperity.

The common thread among these countries is their ability to invest in sustainable economic practices, create favorable environments for business, and provide a high standard of living for their citizens. Understanding these global powerhouses offers valuable lessons in wealth creation and economic strategy, and it’s clear that with the right resources, policies, and innovation, nations can thrive in today’s competitive world economy.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

In the ever-evolving world of trading, strategies come and go, but some stand the test of time due to their precision and practicality. The ICT (Inner Circle Trader) trading strategy, pioneered by Michael J. Huddleston, has become a game-changer for many traders. Its emphasis on understanding market dynamics, institutional behavior, and liquidity sets it apart from conventional trading systems.

This article delves into why the ICT trading strategy stands out and how it empowers traders to make informed and precise decisions in the financial markets.

1. A Foundation Built on Market Logic

Unlike many strategies that rely heavily on lagging indicators or oversimplified patterns, ICT is rooted in the principles of market structure and liquidity. It teaches traders to think like institutional players, understanding:

Smart Money Concepts (SMC): ICT focuses on the movements of institutional investors, often referred to as "smart money," which drive the markets.

Market Manipulation Awareness: The strategy highlights how liquidity is hunted, such as stop-loss raids, helping traders avoid common retail pitfalls.

This logical foundation ensures traders rely less on guesswork and more on observable market behaviors.

2. Unique Tools and Concepts

ICT introduces concepts that are not common in traditional trading systems, making it a standout approach:

Order Blocks: These zones highlight areas where institutions accumulate or distribute positions, acting as high-probability entry and exit points.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG): These price gaps often signal where the market may retrace to, offering traders opportunities to enter with precision.

Optimal Trade Entry (OTE): This refined Fibonacci-based tool helps traders pinpoint ideal entry points with a high risk-to-reward ratio.

These tools provide a detailed roadmap for traders, ensuring they understand where and why price moves.

3. Emphasis on Liquidity

Liquidity is a cornerstone of the ICT strategy. Many retail traders overlook liquidity zones, but ICT traders view them as key areas for market activity. By identifying where institutional players are likely to enter or exit, ICT users can align themselves with the market’s true drivers.

4. A Strategy for All Market Conditions

One of the most impressive aspects of the ICT strategy is its adaptability. Whether the market is trending or ranging, ICT principles apply. This versatility ensures traders can navigate any environment effectively, unlike many systems that perform well only in specific conditions.

5. Educational Depth

ICT is not just a strategy but a comprehensive education in trading. Michael Huddleston provides in-depth explanations of his principles, offering traders an unparalleled understanding of the markets. Many users praise ICT for not just teaching a method but for reshaping how they approach trading altogether.

6. Precision Over Randomness

ICT strategy encourages precision and clarity. Instead of entering trades based on gut feelings or vague signals, traders using ICT have a defined framework:

Identifying liquidity zones.Timing entries during key market sessions (e.g., London or New York open).Managing trades with disciplined risk management strategies.

This precision reduces emotional trading, a common downfall for many.

7. Comparisons with Traditional Systems

While conventional systems often depend on lagging indicators or oversimplified setups, ICT stands out due to its focus on leading indicators and real-time market dynamics. It doesn't rely on outdated principles like "buy low, sell high" but instead leverages where institutional players are positioning themselves.

8. Empowering Retail Traders

The ICT strategy levels the playing field for retail traders by teaching them how to spot and exploit the same opportunities institutions target. This empowerment is a significant reason for its growing popularity.

Conclusion

ICT trading strategy’s reliance on market logic, unique tools, and a comprehensive educational approach has made it a standout choice for traders. By understanding the behavior of institutional players and focusing on liquidity, ICT provides traders with the tools to make informed, precise decisions in the markets.

Whether you’re a beginner looking to grasp the fundamentals or an experienced trader seeking a deeper edge, ICT offers a path to elevate your trading game. Its innovative approach ensures it will remain a staple in the trading world for years to come.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin launches into a new week inches from fresh all-time highs after sealing its best-ever weekly close.

Bitcoin traders see price discovery returning in the coming week while eyeing levels toward $80,000 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.

The weekly close set another record, but November 2024 remains nothing out of the ordinary for BTC price action.

Markets are diverging over how the Federal Reserve will handle a brewing “stagflation” saga.

Whales are still buying BTC, and ETF flows are elevated despite a knee-jerk reaction to last week’s $93,500 all-time high.

Crypto sentiment gauges are getting increasingly overheated as levels of “extreme greed” reach classic blow-off top territory.

Traders prepare for BTC price volatility toward $100,000

Bitcoin saw only a modest dip into the latest record-breaking weekly close, leaving shorts on the losing end.

Above $90,000 into the week’s first Wall Street open, BTC/USD is sustaining momentum while already being up 30% month-to-date, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“So far the usual weekly open bid has lifted price,” trader Skew said in one of his latest posts on X.

Skew noted that the price had held the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes and highlighted two key levels to start the week: $90,000 and $91,300. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

“It’d be great to see an aggressive spike to $95k-96k over the coming week,” fellow trader CrypNuevo said in a dedicated X thread over the weekend.

CrypNuevo suggested that large-volume traders may seek to liquidate newcomers closer to $100,000, resulting in more market flux before that significant psychological price barrier is reached.

“Main liquidation lvl is up, but it’d also make sense to spike up near $100k without fully reaching there, and then reverse down,” he wrote.

“Why? Because many new traders will come to the market for first time FOMOing with longs and spot buys. Easy preys.” BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_3

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_3

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

To the downside, $87,000 needs to hold if the market shows signs of consolidation, he added.

Others are looking to “buy the dip” on BTC even in the event of a deeper retracement. For trader Crypto Chase, suitable entries come in the form of intraday “gaps” between daily candle wicks.

“We will EVENTUALLY pullback into a Daily gap. In bullish conditions, the first gap is the one to buy. Still have 30% of my long open from 85K~. Still looking to buy high 83 K’s if offered,” he told X followers.

“The lower gaps should remain unfilled until this market has reversed/turned bearish.” BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Crypto Chase/X

BTC price weekly close smashes records

For Bitcoin bulls, there is no denying that last week was a historic triumph.

Not only did BTC/USD seal its highest-ever weekly close for a second consecutive time at just under $90,000, but a major BTC price correction to test new support remained off the cards.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts Bitcoin’s weekly gains at 11.8%, with Q4 returns passing 40%.

On a monthly basis, November 2024 remains fairly average in terms of BTC price performance over the past 10 years. Traders, however, say this can still change. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“Historically, this kicks off 300+ days of upside,” trading account CryptoAmsterdam responded on X alongside a comparative chart of Bitcoin bull cycles. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

BTC/USD 2-week chart. Source: CryptoAmsterdam/X

Skew forecasts “a bunch” of new record weekly closes to come, with BTC/USD already attempting to fill the wick, which led to its $93,500 all-time highs on Nov. 13.

“BTC has only just begun its Parabolic Phase in the cycle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital said, referring to his own long-term BTC price analysis.

“Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days. Bitcoin is only on Day 12 of its Parabolic Phase.”

Questions over Fed’s next rate cut

A relatively cool week for US macroeconomic data belied a brewing divergence over future financial policy.

After recent data showed inflation accelerating in October, the Fed faces a recipe for “stagflation” — rising prices with rising unemployment.

This has led to mixed opinions over whether officials will lower interest rates in December, with the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool seeing a 35% chance of a pause in rate cuts. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

“Lower interest rates were the expectation for consumers as we head into 2025,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented over the weekend.

“Now, the Fed seems to be backtracking on the ‘Fed pivot.’ While more rate cuts are coming, inflation will remain elevated.”

Kobeissi noted that the coming week would see earnings from tech giant Nvidia — a potential volatility catalyst for risk assets in itself — along with speaking appearances from seven senior Fed figures.

Joining them is unemployment data on Nov. 21, followed a day later by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and consumer sentiment reports.

“The Fed’s top priority has been to avoid a situation with both rising unemployment and rising inflation, as seen in the 1970s,” Kobeissi added alongside a chart of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) versus unemployment.

“Has the Fed failed yet again in avoiding stagflation?”

Whales keep stacking amid fraught ETF flows

This month, a tale of mass accumulation by Bitcoin whales and institutional investors is a key factor buoying the bull case.

As Cointelegraph reported, whales have not stopped to breathe as BTC/USD charges through all-time highs and into price discovery.

Both large and small whale entities continue to add to their BTC exposure, data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirmed. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

BTC whale balance data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

When it comes to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the trend is the same.

“Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have increased significantly since their launch in January, from 629.9K BTC to 1.0545M BTC, representing a growth of 425K BTC,” CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D wrote in one of its Quicktake blog posts on Nov. 18.

“This corresponds to an increase from 3.15% to 5.33% of the total mined supply of 19.78M BTC, a 2.18% surge in just eight months.” BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

MAC_D suggested that the resulting impact on supply and demand dynamics should force price action higher.

“The dramatic price increases observed in March and November suggest a strong correlation between accumulation and price,” the post added.

“Therefore, as more Bitcoin is accumulated through spot ETFs, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend.” BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Data from sources, including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors, reveals volatile conditions for the spot ETFs, with large net inflows followed by conspicuous net outflows last week.

Total net outflows for the two days through Nov. 15 passed $750 million, after Bitcoin’s spike to new all-time highs.

Crypto “FOMO” brings price warning

Crypto social media is “very reliably” flagging the peak of each BTC price run, research says.

Analyzing social media volumes for specific terms such as prices, research firm Santiment said that “hype” around the future hits highs alongside price itself.

“Bitcoin’s incredible run has now topped out at a new all-time high price of $93,490,” it said on Nov. 13.

“The hype across social media platforms is calling the tops very reliably, with the biggest signal came as $100K+ BTC price speculation poured in right at the ATH 4 hours ago.” BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_11

Crypto social media data. Source: Santiment/X

Santiment added that signs of mass “FOMO” should be taken as a “caution flag,” implying that market upside could reverse.

The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index correspondingly show levels of “extreme greed” last seen in the run-up to Bitcoin’s old long-term peak in March.

The Index hit 90/100 on Nov. 17, just five points off classic market turnaround territory. BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_12

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_12

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Source: KBC Bank

The Commodities Feed: Russian Gas Flows Continue

Energy – Russian pipeline gas continues to flow

Agriculture – Sugar rises on Brazil mill closures

Altcoins Gain Momentum

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News Background

Can You Short Sell Stocks Under $5?

Understanding Short Selling

Can You Short Sell Stocks Under $5?

1. Liquidity Issues

2. Borrowing Stocks Under $5

3. High Volatility

4. Risks of Shorting Penny Stocks

5. Strategies for Short Selling Stocks Under $5

Conclusion

The Richest Countries in the World: A Look at Global Wealth and Economic Power

1. Luxembourg

2. Switzerland

3. Ireland

4. Norway

5. Qatar

6. United States

7. Singapore

8. Brunei

9. United Arab Emirates

10. Saudi Arabia

Conclusion

Why ICT Trading Strategy Stands Out Among Other Trading Systems

1. A Foundation Built on Market Logic

2. Unique Tools and Concepts

3. Emphasis on Liquidity

4. A Strategy for All Market Conditions

5. Educational Depth

6. Precision Over Randomness

7. Comparisons with Traditional Systems

8. Empowering Retail Traders

Conclusion

BTC Price Weekly Close Nears $90K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Traders prepare for BTC price volatility toward $100,000

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Crypto Chase/X

BTC price weekly close smashes records

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

BTC/USD 2-week chart. Source: CryptoAmsterdam/X

Questions over Fed’s next rate cut

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Whales keep stacking amid fraught ETF flows

BTC whale balance data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Crypto “FOMO” brings price warning

Crypto social media data. Source: Santiment/X

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Disclosure