Technical Outlook and Review

Summary:

The DXY chart currently indicates a bearish momentum, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend.

DXY:

The DXY chart currently indicates a bearish momentum, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend.

The 1st support level is situated at 104.52, identified as a pullback support. This level corresponds to the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, adding to its significance as a potential area where buying interest could emerge.

Additionally, the 2nd support at 104.27 is noted as another pullback support, coinciding with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, further reinforcing its potential as a support zone.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level is positioned at 104.95, characterized as a multi-swing high resistance. This level may act as a barrier to upward movement, potentially triggering a reversal or a temporary halt in the downtrend.

Similarly, the 2nd resistance at 105.38 is identified as a pullback resistance, indicating another potential area where selling pressure may intensify.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, with one of the contributing factors being that the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud.

Given this scenario, the price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level at 1.0663. This level is identified as an overlap support and coincides with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, enhancing its significance as a potential area of buying interest.

In addition, the 2nd support at 1.0584 is noted as a pullback support, suggesting another level where buyers might step in to support the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 1.0733 is characterized as an overlap resistance. This level is reinforced by the presence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a potential area of selling interest.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 1.0789 is identified as another overlap resistance, adding to its significance as a potential barrier for further upside movement.

EUR/JPY:

The EUR/JPY chart currently demonstrates a bearish overall momentum, indicating a prevalent downward trend. Several factors contribute to this bearish sentiment, reinforcing the potential for a continued decline in price.

The 1st support level at 160.760 is significant as it aligns with both a pullback support and the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level. This convergence of support factors suggests a strong level where buying interest has historically emerged, potentially acting as a temporary floor for the price.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 150.007 corresponds to a swing low support, further emphasizing its importance as a potential area where buyers may intervene to support the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 161.586 is identified as a swing high resistance and coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. This level indicates a historical point where selling pressure has been significant, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

Further up, the 2nd resistance level at 163.705 also aligns with a swing high resistance, reinforcing its significance as a potential barrier to price appreciation.

EUR/GBP:

The EUR/GBP chart currently maintains a neutral overall momentum, indicating a lack of clear directionality in the market. This indecisiveness suggests that price could potentially oscillate between key support and resistance levels in the near term.

The 1st support level at 0.85190 is notable as it coincides with a pullback support and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. This convergence suggests a robust level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing a foundation for price stability.

Furthermore, the 2nd support level at 0.85000 aligns with a swing low support, reinforcing its significance as a historical level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price.

On the flip side, the 1st resistance level at 0.85684 represents a swing high resistance, indicating a historical point where selling pressure has been prevalent. This level may act as a barrier to further upward movement.

Similarly, the 2nd resistance level at 0.85890 is identified as an overlap resistance, suggesting another level where selling interest may intensify.

An intermediate resistance level at 0.85477 is also identified, corresponding to a pullback resistance. This level may add to the complexity of price movements, potentially influencing short-term fluctuations.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart currently demonstrates a bearish momentum.

There is a potential scenario where the price reacts bearishly upon reaching the 1st resistance level and subsequently declines towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level at 1.2516 is identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating its historical significance as a level where buying interest has emerged in the past.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1.2466 is characterized as a swing low support, further reinforced by the presence of the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, enhancing its importance as a potential area of buying interest.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 1.2602 is categorized as an overlap resistance. This level coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating its historical significance as a point of potential resistance.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 1.2641 is identified as a pullback resistance, with the presence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, adding to its significance as a potential barrier for further upside movement.

GBP/JPY:

The GBP/JPY chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, suggesting a prevailing downward trend. Several factors contribute to this bearish sentiment, indicating the potential for a continued decline in price.

The 1st support level at 188.483 is identified as a significant level, characterized by pullback support. This suggests a historical area where buying interest has emerged following a pullback, potentially indicating a level where traders might look to enter long positions.

Furthermore, the 2nd support level at 187.478 aligns with an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. This confluence strengthens its significance as a potential support zone, indicating a historical level where buyers have previously stepped in to support the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 189.991 represents a swing high resistance. This level may act as a barrier to further upward movement, as it denotes a historical point where selling pressure has been prevalent.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart currently indicates a bullish momentum.

There’s a potential scenario where the price may experience a short-term drop towards the 1st support before bouncing from there and moving towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level at 0.8812 is identified as a pullback support, coinciding with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement. This suggests historical significance as a level where buying interest has previously emerged.

Moreover, the 2nd support level at 0.727.0000 is characterized as an overlap support, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, further reinforcing its significance as a potential area of buying interest.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 0.8899 is categorized as an overlap resistance, indicating its historical significance as a point of potential resistance.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 0.8955 is identified as a pullback resistance, which could act as a barrier for further upside movement.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart currently demonstrates bullish momentum.

There’s a potential scenario where the price may experience a short-term drop towards the 1st support before bouncing from there and rising to the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level at 149.62 is identified as a pullback support, coinciding with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement. This suggests historical significance as a level where buying interest has previously emerged.

Furthermore, the 2nd support level at 148.77 is characterized as a pullback support, coinciding with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, further reinforcing its significance as a potential area of buying interest.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 150.87 is categorized as a swing high resistance, indicating its historical significance as a point of potential resistance.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 151.92 is identified as another swing high resistance, which could act as a barrier for further upside movement.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart currently exhibits a weak bullish momentum. In this context, there is a potential scenario for price to make a bullish bounce off the 1st support and rise towards the intermediate resistance.

The 1st support level at 1.3542 is identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 1.3485 is also marked as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level, further emphasizing its importance as a potential support zone.

To the upside, the intermediate resistance level at 1.3586 is identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension level while the 1st resistance level at 1.3614 is also marked as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 1.3662 is noted as an overlap resistance, further highlighting its importance as a potential resistance point.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits a weak bullish momentum. In this context, there is a potential scenario for price to rise towards the 1st resistance should it break above the intermediate resistance.

The intermediate resistance level at 0.6491 is identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci Retracement level while the 1st resistance level at 0.6540 is also noted as a pullback resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 0.6608 is also marked as a pullback resistance, further highlighting its importance as a potential resistance point.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 0.6452 is identified as pullback support that aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 0.6416 is noted as an overlap support that aligns close to the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension level, further emphasizing its importance as a potential support zone.

NZD/USD:

The NZD/USD chart currently exhibits a weak bullish momentum. In this context, there is a potential scenario for price to rise towards the 1st resistance should it break above the intermediate resistance.

The intermediate resistance level at 0.6089 is identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level while the 1st resistance level at 0.6117 is noted as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 0.6157 is marked as a pullback resistance, further highlighting its importance as a potential resistance point.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 0.6047 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 0.6019 is also noted as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension level, further emphasizing its importance as a potential support zone.

DJ30:

The DJ30 chart currently demonstrates a bullish overall momentum, indicating a prevalent upward trend. Several factors contribute to this bullish sentiment, suggesting the potential for a continued upward movement in price.

The 1st support level at 38217.73 is identified as significant due to its alignment with an overlap support. This suggests a historical level where buying interest has previously emerged, potentially indicating a strong level of support.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 37808.87 corresponds to both an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. This confluence of support factors further reinforces its significance as a potential support zone, indicating a level where buyers may be inclined to enter the market.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 38556.11 is identified as a point where selling pressure may increase, as it aligns with both an overlap resistance and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. This suggests a historical point where selling interest has been strong and could act as a barrier to further upward movement.

Further up, the 2nd resistance level at 38916.81 corresponds to a swing high resistance, indicating another potential barrier to upward movement.

GER40:

The GER40 chart currently maintains a bearish overall momentum, indicating a prevalent downward trend. Several factors contribute to this bearish sentiment, suggesting the potential for a continued downward movement in price.

The 1st support level at 16877.1 is identified as significant, representing a pullback support. This suggests a historical level where buying interest has previously emerged, potentially offering a level of support for the price.

Furthermore, the 2nd support level at 16788.7 corresponds to both an overlap support and the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level. This confluence of support factors strengthens its significance as a potential support zone, indicating a level where buyers may intervene.An intermediate support level at 16930.5 is also identified, which corresponds to a pullback support, providing additional reinforcement to the support structure.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 17052.6 is noted as a point where selling pressure may intensify, as it represents a pullback resistance. This indicates a historical point where selling interest has been strong and could act as a barrier to further upward movement.

Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 17115.1 aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its significance as a potential barrier to upward movement.

US500:

The US500 chart currently demonstrates a bullish overall momentum, indicating a prevalent upward trend. Several factors contribute to this bullish sentiment, suggesting the potential for a continued upward movement in price.

The 1st support level at 4930.1 is deemed significant as it aligns with both an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. This convergence of support factors suggests a robust level where buying interest has historically emerged, potentially providing a solid foundation for further upward movement.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 4848.6 corresponds to a swing low support, further reinforcing its importance as a potential support zone. This level indicates a significant historical level where buyers have previously intervened to support the price.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 5047.4 is identified as a point where selling pressure may increase, as it represents a swing high resistance and aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection. This suggests a historical point where selling interest has been strong and could act as a barrier to further upward movement.

Further up, the 2nd resistance level at 5080.1 aligns with both the 127.20% and 78.60% Fibonacci Extensions, adding to its significance as a potential barrier to upward movement.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum, indicating a prevailing upward trend. Several factors contribute to this bullish sentiment, suggesting the potential for further upward movement in price.

The 1st support level at 50397.42 is significant as it represents a pullback support. This level indicates a historical point where buying interest has previously emerged, potentially acting as a foundation for continued upward movement.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 47932.73 aligns with an overlap support, further reinforcing its importance as a potential support zone. This level suggests a historical area where buyers have shown significant interest in supporting the price, adding credibility to its role as a support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 52887.54 aligns with a multi-swing high resistance. This level represents a historical point where selling pressure has been strong, potentially acting as a barrier to further upward movement.

Further up, the 2nd resistance level at 55515.75 corresponds to the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its significance as a resistance level. Fibonacci extensions are commonly used to identify potential price targets, suggesting that this level could present a significant hurdle for further price appreciation.

ETH/USD:

The ETH/USD chart currently indicates a bullish overall momentum, suggesting a predominant upward trend. Several factors contribute to this bullish sentiment, indicating the potential for further upward movement in price.

The 1st support level at 2685.37 is significant as it represents a pullback support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has previously emerged. This level could serve as a foundation for further upward movement, with buyers potentially entering the market at this point.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 2611.89 aligns with an overlap support, further reinforcing its importance as a potential support zone. This level indicates a historical area where buyers have shown significant interest in supporting the price, adding credibility to its role as a support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 2864.83 aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, which adds significance to this resistance level. Fibonacci extensions are commonly used by traders to identify potential price targets, suggesting that this level could present a significant hurdle for further upward movement.

Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 3057.42 corresponds to the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, further emphasizing its importance as a resistance level. This level indicates a potential price target derived from Fibonacci analysis and could act as a strong barrier to further price appreciation.

WTI/USD:

The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) chart currently exhibits an overall bearish momentum. In this context, there is a potential scenario for price to drop towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level at 75.72 is identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level. Further below, the 2nd support level at 75.02 is also noted as an overlap support that aligns with the 50.00% Fibonacci Retracement level, reinforcing its significance as a key support level.

To the upside, the 1st resistance level at 76.86 is identified as an overlap resistance. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 78.22 is marked as a pullback resistance, further highlighting its importance as a potential resistance zone.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAUUSD chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, indicating a downward trend.

There’s a potential scenario where the price may rise towards the 1st resistance in the short term before reversing off it and dropping towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level at 1976.56 is identified as a multi-swing low support, suggesting historical significance as a strong support level where buying interest may emerge.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1963.09 is characterized as an overlap support, coinciding with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, further emphasizing its importance as a potential support zone.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 2006.25 is categorized as a pullback resistance, coinciding with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating its historical significance as a point of potential resistance.

Moreover, there is a 2nd resistance level at 2016.12, identified as another pullback resistance, coinciding with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, which further adds to its significance as a potential barrier for further upside movement.

Article Source： ACTIONFOREX

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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Glendon

The U.S. dollar held below a three-month high on Thursday, as market players tried to gauge when the Federal Reserve will likely begin cutting interest rates as Fed officials weighed in on Tuesday's inflation data.

While under renewed pressure this week, the yen kept off the three-month low hit against the dollar on Tuesday despite data showing Japan's economy slipped into a recession as it unexpectedly shrank for two straight quarters on weak domestic demand.

The U.S. inflation data pushed back bets on a first Fed rate cut to the middle of the year, after showing the consumer price index gained 3.1% in January on a year-on-year basis, compared with an expected 2.9% rise.

The market is currently pricing in no rate cut in March compared to 77% bets a month ago that rate cuts would start then, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Markets see a 60% chance the Fed will also hold rates at its May meeting. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday the Fed's path will still be on track even if price increases run a bit hotter-than-expected in coming months, and the central bank should be wary of waiting too long before it cuts interest rates.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the Fed remained confident, but the January CPI numbers shows the United States' path back to 2% inflation "may be a bumpy one."

"The Fed are taking a long-view approach and their ‘path’ back to 2% allows for mishaps along the way. And comments from (Fed officials) after the hot inflation report attest to this," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peer currencies, consolidated below a fresh three-month high of 104.97 touched on Wednesday, ahead of U.S. retail sales in January due later on Thursday. It last sat at 104.69.

The yen strengthened 0.23% versus the greenback at 150.26, continuing to hold firm after Japan's top currency officials warned against "rapid" yen moves the previous day and despite Japan's unexpectedly weak gross domestic product figures on Thursday.

The slip saw Japan lose its title as the world's third-largest economy, replaced by Germany.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Currency Strategist Carol Kong saw the technical recession as having little impact on the dollar/yen, with the upcoming spring wage negotiations more important to both the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy outlook and the yen.

"Indeed, markets have continued to price a high chance of a BOJ rate hike in April despite the negative GDP print," Kong said.

Still, the heat from the dollar looks likely to persist as traders shift bets to a Fed rate cut later in the year, she said.

"Against this backdrop, further verbal intervention from Japanese authorities will not weigh on USD/JPY more than temporarily in our view."

Elsewhere in the region, the Aussie dollar slipped after a surprisingly weak set of jobs numbers, ticking down 0.15% to $0.648.

The kiwi fell 0.06% versus the greenback to $0.60825.

Sterling, meanwhile, was last trading at $1.2558, ahead of Britain's GDP data on Thursday.

The euro was mostly unchanged at $1.0727.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 0.67% to $52,120.55. It rose as high as $52,544.51 earlier in the session, topping the 25-month high of $52,079 touched on Wednesday after the total value invested in bitcoin surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since November 2021.

Article Source： zawya

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Zi Cheng

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Friday saw crude oil futures heading towards a weekly increase, propelled by mounting tensions in the Middle East which eclipsed persistent inflation in the U.S. and an uncertain demand projection for the year ahead.

The WTI Crude Oil reached $78.30 per barrel, while Brent Crude Oil surged to $83.84 per barrel. This week's performance indicates a rise of approximately 2% in crude prices.

WTI M30 Chart

Brent M30 Chart

Escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border have reignited concerns about the potential spread of conflict beyond Gaza within the Middle East.

Wednesday witnessed Israeli airstrikes targeting southern Lebanon in response to rocket assaults originating from northern Israel. Hezbollah, the influential militia aligned with Iran, has pledged retaliatory actions against Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel remains steadfast in its Gaza offensive, advancing towards the southern city of Rafah, thereby heightening tensions with neighboring Egypt.

Despite these geopolitical developments, the oil market this week displayed a degree of resilience, largely disregarding persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. and uncertainties surrounding demand projections.

Recent reports from the Labor Department highlighted higher-than-expected wholesale and consumer price increases in January, indicating the persistence of inflationary pressures. This trend diminishes prospects for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically stimulate economic activity and subsequently bolster crude demand.

Thursday witnessed a surge in oil prices despite the International Energy Agency's subdued global demand forecast for 2024 being largely overlooked by the market.

According to the IEA, worldwide crude oil demand growth is anticipated to decelerate significantly this year, halving from the pace of the previous year to 1.2 million barrels per day, compared to 2.3 million bpd in 2023. The agency projects a surplus in supply, with production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set to increase by 1.7 million bpd.

Contrary to the IEA's forecast, OPEC expressed a more optimistic outlook on Tuesday, predicting a tighter market in the current year. OPEC expects demand to grow by 2.2 million bpd, surpassing the growth in production outside the cartel, which it estimated at 1.2 million bpd.

Throughout this week, geopolitical risk has continued to influence oil trading decisions, although its impact has been mitigated by the bearish developments unfolding in the United States.

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Zi Cheng

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Economic

In January, prices paid by US producers surged beyond expectations, underscoring the persistent challenge of inflation. According to Friday's Labor Department data, the producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3% from December, surpassing forecasts. Additionally, the index climbed by 0.9% compared to the previous year, also exceeding expectations.

The core PPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, increased by 0.5% from the previous month and by 2% from a year ago, both exceeding anticipated levels.

U.S PPI Data Unexpectedly Higher Than Forecast_1

The uptick in prices was driven by increases in service categories, notably in hospital outpatient care and portfolio management.

In response to the PPI data, Treasury yields continued their decline. Two-year yields reached their highest level since mid-December, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates had peaked. Traders adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts, now estimating only a 25% chance of a move in May.

Earlier this week, a separate report showed a significant rise in consumer prices at the beginning of the year. With the wholesale price figures echoing this trend, it is likely to reinforce the belief that the Fed will refrain from reducing interest rates until they are confident inflation is under control.

Economists at the Fed and on Wall Street closely analyze the PPI report because it includes several categories used to inform the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price gauge. The January reading of the PCE is scheduled for release later this month.

While service costs saw a notable increase of 0.6%, the highest since July, prices paid by producers for goods experienced a decrease of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive decline.

Factors that increase PPI

The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Several factors can contribute to an increase in the PPI.

One significant factor is rising input costs, such as increases in the prices of raw materials, energy, or labor. When the cost of production goes up, producers often pass these higher costs onto consumers in the form of increased prices for goods and services, leading to an upward pressure on the PPI.

Additionally, increased demand for goods and services can drive prices higher as producers seek to capitalize on greater demand by raising prices. Changes in government policies, such as tariffs or taxes, can also influence the PPI by affecting production costs or altering market dynamics.

Furthermore, supply chain disruptions or natural disasters can constrain production, leading to scarcity and higher prices, further contributing to an increase in the PPI.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Ukadike Micheal

Forex

Economic

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand experienced a 0.3% increase in January, adjusted for seasonal variations. This comes after a 0.1% decline in December 2023 and a 0.1% rise in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand showed a 0.9% increase for the 12 months ending January 2024.

The advance in the index for final demand in January was driven by a 0.6% rise in prices for final demand services, while the index for final demand goods decreased by 0.2%. Notably, the index for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services exhibited a substantial 0.6% increase in January 2024, marking the most significant advance since January 2023. Over the 12 months ending January 2024, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose by 2.6%.

Within final demand services, the 0.6% increase in January was largely influenced by a 0.8% climb in prices for final demand services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing. The index for final demand trade services rose by 0.2%, while prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell by 0.4%.

Product detail analysis reveals a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services was a substantial 2.2% increase in the index for hospital outpatient care. Other notable increases were observed in the indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services. Conversely, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased by 1.0%, with declines also seen in the indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing, as well as engineering services.

In the realm of final demand goods, the index exhibited a 0.2% decline in January, marking the fourth consecutive decrease. The majority of this decline was attributed to a 1.7% drop in prices for final demand energy, while the index for final demand foods fell by 0.3%. On the positive side, prices for final demand goods excluding foods and energy increased by 0.3%.

A detailed analysis of final demand goods in January showed a significant 3.6% decline in prices for gasoline, leading the overall decrease. Notable decreases were also observed in the indexes for electric power, hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds, beef and veal, ethanol, and iron and steel scrap. Conversely, prices for communication and related equipment increased by 2.4%, with gains also seen in the indexes for soft drinks and liquified petroleum gas.

This PPI data provides valuable insights into the pricing dynamics across different sectors of the U.S. economy, offering a comprehensive view of inflationary trends. The continued monitoring of these indices aids in understanding the broader economic landscape and its implications for businesses, policymakers, and investors. As the market digests this information, considerations for potential impacts on monetary policy and investment strategies come to the forefront.

Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Alex

Donald Trump's hopes of winning the 2024 Election may be hindered by a lack of his supporters heading to the ballots, polls have suggested.

There have been a number of examples in recent surveys which note that while the presumed GOP presidential candidate in November is ahead of Joe Biden in a general poll of U.S. adults or registered voters, the current president beats Trump when the data is broken down to likely voters.

The results indicate that Biden—who has long faced concern about his polling numbers, approval ratings, age, and cognitive ability—may have additional ammunition against Trump as he looks to defeat the Republican in an election for the second time in a row.

Newsweek reached out to Trump's campaign team by email for comment.

A Big Village poll released in January showed that the presumptive 2024 Election between Biden and Trump is neck and neck, with both candidates receiving 38 percent among registered voters. Yet among those who said they are likely voters, Biden takes the lead (42 to 39 percent).

A month earlier, a New York Times/Siena poll found that Trump leads Biden by 46 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. However, when the results are broken down to just those who said that they are "almost certain" or "very likely" to cast a ballot in the 2024 Election, the results switch and Biden beats Trump by 47 percent to 45 percent.

Also in December, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump with a 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Biden (38 percent to 36) in a survey of 4,411 U.S. adults nationwide.

The results improve for Biden again when the results are just between likely voters. In this case, the poll found that in the seven states where the election was closest in 2020—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—Biden had a 4-point lead over Trump among Americans who said they were sure to vote.

Biden won all these states except North Carolina in 2020, and would need to ensure he holds on to most of them while winning strong Blue states if he has any hopes of a second term.

Cary Coglianese, an Edward B. Shils professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, suggested that the reason for the change of outcomes is that general polls feature members of the public who are "expressing more of their feeling" about the state of affairs, such as the economy, in comparison with voters who intend to go to the ballot box.

"As the election gets closer, people are likely to focus more on what it would really be like to have another four years of President Biden versus President Trump," Coglianese told Newsweek. "The Biden team is hoping to fare well with that comparison."

As with any poll result, there are a number of caveats that need to be considered.

The 2024 election is still nine months away, meaning there is plenty of time for other outcomes to influence who voters will back. Trump is facing 91 felony charges, to which he has pleaded not guilty, across four criminal trials, with Biden continuing to be met with concerns about his age and his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

There are also still a significant number of surveys which show Trump is the current frontrunner in the close race, including those which only feature likely voters.

Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said that the rise of Trumpism has buoyed Democratic voters to come out and vote for the past eight years, which has helped "propel" Democrats to multiple victories in midterm and off-year elections.

"While this is good news for Democrats in lower-turnout elections, the impact on the presidential race is less clear," Borick told Newsweek.

"The most likely voters do lean towards Biden, and if the overall turnout this fall declines from 2020, a possibility given dissatisfaction with the alternatives, Biden may have a slight advantage.

"However, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden combined with Trump's demonstrated ability to bring out less regular voters—such as lower educated and working-class voters—may negate the slight advantage Biden has in polls that give higher weights to traditional likely voters," Borick added.

Coglianese also noted that even though Trump can easily rely on his strong MAGA base to support him at the ballots, this may not be enough to secure a general election victory.

"Voters concerned about reproductive rights and the future of democracy and the rule of law will likely be highly motivated to get out to vote—and there may be enough of them to put Biden on top," Coglianese said.

Source:NewsWeek

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Zi Cheng

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Traders' Opinions

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices surged and surpassed the significant $2,000 mark on Thursday, driven by a declining U.S. dollar and subdued U.S. Treasury yields following lackluster U.S. macroeconomic data. In context, January's U.S. retail sales figures fell short of expectations, contracting by 0.8% instead of the anticipated 0.1% decline, signaling a potential softening in household consumption.

While typically, decreased consumer spending might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider accelerating policy easing, the current situation is anything but normal, with inflation consistently exceeding the 2.0% target and exhibiting significant resilience. Therefore, policymakers may choose to refrain from preemptive measures in response to signs of economic weakness.

Given the U.S. central bank's current singular focus on restoring price stability and its prioritization of this aspect of its mandate, traders must closely monitor the forthcoming release of the producer price index survey on Friday. Projections indicate that January's headline PPI is expected to ease to 0.6% year-on-year from the previous 1.0%, with the core gauge moderating to 1.6% from December's 1.8%.

While subdued PPI figures are likely to support higher gold prices, an unexpected increase akin to the Consumer Price Index report earlier in the week, which showed a slowdown in disinflation progress, could have the opposite effect. In such a scenario, we may witness simultaneous rises in yields and the U.S. dollar as markets adjust their dovish interest rate expectations, which would be bearish for precious metals.

Technical Analysis

Gold is currently ranging in a channel that I have drawn as attached below. It will be tough to estimate which direction it will break as the PPI data will act as a catalyst to either push Gold price higher or lower. Judging from the current long term trend, there is a higher probability that it will break towards the upside.

Besides that, Gold's price currently is also above the 200 Day Moving Average which is a strong dynamic support indicator which increases the probability of Gold price moving higher. However, if you have been keeping up with the Dollar recently, Dollar has been strengthening aggressively hence Gold price has been in a short term downtrend.

The reason why I am not in any position for Gold is that there is mixed confluences for Gold currently which puts me in a bad position to take any trades. I will remain patient and monitor Gold's reaction after the PPI data being released.