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Oil prices are on the rise “helped by a cold weather fanning demand, the fall in US inventories and multiple risks to shipments”, said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
“In addition to the curbs against Russia, traders are concerned the incoming [Donald] Trump administration may both tighten sanctions against Iran and impose trade levies that disrupt oil flows or risk drawing retaliatory measures,” he added.
Last week, the US and UK issued sanctions against Russia's energy industry, intensifying pressure on Moscow as the war in Ukraine nears its fourth year. The US sanctions name Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, both major players in the Russian oil industry.
The measures also take aim at oil-carrying vessels – many of which are part of the “shadow fleet” engaged in the illegal trade of Russian oil – as well as Russia-based oilfield service providers, energy officials and “opaque traders”, according to a statement from the US Department of the Treasury.
Falling US oil stock and continued cold weather in the US and Europe is also supporting oil prices. For the week ending January 10, US commercial crude oil inventories decreases by 2 million barrels from the previous week, the latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows. At 412.7 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 6 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.
Traders are also keeping a close eye on Mr Trump's incoming administration and what his polices are going to be in relation to Iran and trade. During his previous term in the White House, Mr Trump exerted maximum pressure on Iran to limit its exports and reduce revenue in response to its nuclear programme.
"Donald Trump’s tariff threats and plans to jolt the energy space with further sanctions against oil-producing countries like Iran, Russia and Venezuela threaten to maintain the upside pressure in oil prices this year," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
"Although Trump explicitly wants to finish with the war in Ukraine, members of his new team say that they support further sanctions against Russian oil giants. On top, Trump will tighten his grip on Iran against its nuclear work and punish Venezuela for its anti-democratic turn."

Indian Oil Corp, the state major, is buying Middle Eastern and African crude to replace Russian volumes affected by U.S. sanctions, including a cargo of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, which IOC does not normally buy, Reuters has reported, citing trading sources.
The Murban cargo fetched a premium of $5 per barrel above the Dubai benchmark, the sources told Reuters.
In addition to the rare Murban cargo, which totaled 2 million barrels, Indian Oil Corp. also bought 3 million barrels of Nigerian crude, a million barrels of Gabonese crude, and a cargo of Angolan crude in the past few days.
The outgoing U.S. administration last Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.
The sanctions on the oil companies are the first direct designations against Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which were sanctioned by the UK on the same day, too, as “the profits from these 2 companies are lining Putin’s war chest and facilitating the war,” as the UK government said.
The latest sanctions also cut off Russia’s access to U.S. services related to the extraction and production of crude oil and other petroleum products.
According to analysts, the sanction package could reduce the supply of Russian oil globally by between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels daily—a volume sufficient to keep the benchmarks higher.
As a result, Russia’s biggest clients in Asia are in a rush to secure the volumes they need, and they are driving a higher premium for these barrels. Earlier this week, Reuters again reported Indian Oil Corp. had organized its first sour crude import tender in three years, seeking high-sulfur crude from spot market suppliers. The company has also organized a tender for sweet crude, to be delivered between mid-February and mid-March.
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