US Government Finalizes Tariffs on Southeast Asian Solar Imports

Economic

Summary:

U.S.-based manufacturers say that Chinese companies based in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are dumping cheap solar panels on the American market.

The U.S. government has finalized severe tariffs on imports of solar panels from four Southeast Asian countries, in connection with a complaint filed last year by major U.S.-based solar manufacturers.

The U.S. Commerce Department determined that solar cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were being “dumped” into the U.S. market at artificially low prices, and benefiting from unfair Chinese government subsidies, the Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA) said in a statement late on Monday.

The tariffs varied widely depending on the company and country, ranging from just over 41 percent on Jinko Solar products from Malaysia to over 375 percent on products manufactured by Trina Solar in Thailand. Solar panels and components from Cambodia were slapped with duties of more than 3,500 percent—a rate so high that it amounts to an import ban—because their producers chose not to cooperate with the American investigation.

The tariff rates represent the Commerce Department’s “final affirmative determinations” in two trade complaints filed last year by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which represents several major solar equipment producers, including South Korea’s Hanwha Qcells USA Inc. and the U.S. firm First Solar Inc. The first complaint claimed that solar imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were unfairly benefiting from Chinese government aid. The second accused these companies of flooding the U.S. market with unfairly priced goods.

In preliminary rulings in October and December of last year, the Commerce Department ruled in favor of the Alliance, arguing that Chinese firms based in the four nations were circumventing its existing antidumping and countervailing duty orders on solar cells from China. It then announced preliminary tariffs on imports from these countries, although the rates announced this week were significantly higher.

“These are very strong results,” Tim Brightbill, an attorney for the Alliance, told reporters, according to Reuters. “We are confident that they will address the unfair trade practices of the Chinese-owned companies in these four countries, which have been injuring the U.S. solar manufacturing industry for far too long.”

The tariffs will not come into effect until the International Trade Commission votes on whether the industry was materially harmed by the dumped and subsidized imports. The vote must take place by June 2.

In 2023, these four countries exported almost $12 billion worth of solar panels and related components to the U.S., making up around 80 percent of total U.S. imports of these goods. The imposition of such severe tariffs would therefore amount to a significant reshaping of the global supply chains for these products.

Indeed, changes in the supply chains are already evident, in anticipation of a cut-off of imports from Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. As Reuters reported, “Imports from the four targeted countries this year are a fraction of what they were a year ago, while shipments of panels from nations like Laos and Indonesia are on the rise.”

In a post on X, Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist for emerging Asia at the financial services firm Natixis, described the ruling as “a win” for U.S. producers, and also those, such as Hanwha Qcells, which have invested in solar panel manufacturing facilities in the United States. “It rewards onshoring & closes out loopholes of cheap Chinese solar that were being arbitraged via Southeast Asian countries,” she wrote.

These solar panel tariffs have enjoyed bipartisan support, and are not directly related to the severe “reciprocal tariffs” announced by President Donald Trump on April 2. But the imposition of the high anti-dumping duties could well play into the trade negotiations that are taking place, or are likely to take place, with these four Southeast Asian nations. This is particularly the case for Vietnam, which was hit with a 46 percent tariff by Trump, as “punishment” for its lopsided trade surplus with the U.S.

This has grown significantly since the first Trump administration imposed tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S., rising from $38.3 billion in 2017 to $123.5 billion last year. This has naturally raised concerns in Washington that much of this surplus has been made up of Chinese goods that are either fraudulently transshipped via Vietnam, or goods made in Chinese factories set up in the country to avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.

As Trinh Nguyen noted, the solar duties, which will eliminate much (if not all) of the exports of solar panels and related technology from Vietnam to the U.S., demonstrate the risks to Vietnam of being perceived as a mere transshipment point for Chinese goods. While the extent of this transshipment has arguably been exaggerated, any attempt by Vietnam to argue down the 46 percent reciprocal tariff will likely involve commitments to prevent the rerouting of goods from China. The Vietnamese government recently announced its intention to do so, suggesting an awareness of the problem that this poses for its lucrative trade relationship with the United States.

Meanwhile, the effective cut-off of cheap Chinese solar imports will force Americans to buy more expensive solar panels from local manufacturers. Some critics of the tariffs, including the Solar Energy Industries Association trade group, also argue that they will harm U.S. solar producers by raising prices on imported cells and other components that are assembled into panels by U.S.-based factories. However, this is a cost that Washington seems ready to bear in order to protect and develop industries that it has identified as a national security priority.

Source: The Diplomat

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum’s price has surged after having been in the doldrums for weeks, helping boost its market share after it hit record lows.

Ether has surged almost 15% over the past 24 hours, topping $1,800 on April 23. It has outperformed Bitcoin, which notched a 6% gain, and the wider crypto market, which has climbed almost 5% to reclaim a total market value of $3 trillion.

Ether has now managed to recover almost 30% since its April 9 crash to $1,400, leading some analysts to suggest that the worst may be over for the world’s second-largest crypto asset.

“You can hate Ethereum all you want, but when it has a big day, the entire crypto ecosystem goes up,” crypto trader and analyst “Income Sharks” commented to their 640,000 X followers.

Market analyst “Ash Crypto” said ETH was “about to explode,” drawing comparison from the current chart pattern for Ether to that for Bitcoin’s performance in late 2024. Ethereum Bounces Back as Market Dominance Recovers From All-Time Low_1

Ethereum Bounces Back as Market Dominance Recovers From All-Time Low_1

BTC vs ETH performance and prediction. Source: Ash Crypto

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at the crypto exchange BTSE, was not conviced Ethereum was moving idependently, and told Cointelegraph that Ether’s gain “was largely due to it tracking the price of Bitcoin and the overall market,” and that that Paul Atkins’ confirmation as chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission had boosted overall market sentiment.

Earlier this month, ETH had fallen back to bear market prices and had seen its market share dwindle amid a wide market downturn marred by fears of a trade war.

On April 22, analyst “Rekt Capital” said that ETH’s market dominance has fallen back to all-time lows but “managed to protect 2019 all-time lows as support.”

ETH dominance fell to its September 2019 low of 7% on April 22, according to TradingView. However, its subsequent price pump has seen that share bounce off this critical support level and return above 7.5% on April 23. Ethereum Bounces Back as Market Dominance Recovers From All-Time Low_2

Ethereum Bounces Back as Market Dominance Recovers From All-Time Low_2

ETH dominance lows. Source: Rekt Capital

Fundamental catalysts supporting the move

10x Research’s Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph that it hasn’t taken much to drive Ethereum higher, as a “heavily shorted market is now experiencing a squeeze.”

Technically, Ethereum was oversold on both daily and weekly timeframes, setting the stage for a rebound, he said.

“With the upcoming upgrade moving to mainnet, there’s also a fundamental catalyst supporting the move.”

Source: Cointelegraph

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The World Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for India, citing increased global economic uncertainty that is expected to impact the prospects of most South Asian nations.

On Wednesday, the World Bank reduced its growth prediction for India by 0.4 percentage points, bringing it to 6.3% for the fiscal year that commenced on April 1. This is a downward adjustment from the forecast it had made in October.

The report by the World Bank on South Asia suggested that while monetary easing and regulatory streamlining are likely to benefit private investment in India, these advantages are anticipated to be counterbalanced by global economic weakness and policy uncertainty.

In addition to India, the World Bank has also lowered its growth forecasts for most South Asian nations. The reason given for these reductions is the limited capacity of these countries to handle global challenges. The World Bank did not provide specific figures for these other countries in the region.

Source: Investing

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Glendon

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin extended this week’s rally to Wednesday, breaching $94,000, as markets reacted positively to US President Donald Trump’s statement that he will not interfere with the Federal Reserve and is ready to negotiate with China.

The top-ranked crypto by market cap climbed more than 3% late Tuesday before paring gains to trade at $94,198 at 8:26 AM UTC. Bitcoin’s price rally took charge at the start of the business week when it topped $90,000 for the first time in more than 30 days.

Trump has no intention of firing Powell

The BTC price rally came against the backdrop of Trump’s comments that he had “no intention of firing” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets had been on edge after the US president called Powell “a major loser.” The White House had also said it could exercise legal options to remove him from office.

“I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” he said during a press briefing in the Oval Office yesterday.

Trump first nominated Powell in 2017 during his first term. His successor, Joe Biden, reappointed Powell to a second four-year term in 2021.

Signals of progress on the trade front also added to the crypto market’s 24-hour 6.5% market cap uptick. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at a closed-door investor summit on Tuesday, said both Beijing and Washington recognize the economic toll and will need to find a path toward de-escalation.

Trump told reporters that he would approach negotiations with Beijing in a “very nice” manner. He admitted that tariffs would not drop to zero, but would fall significantly if a deal could be reached.

Bitcoin showing signs of a long-term bull run

This business week, Bitcoin’s price action defied its historical pattern of moving in tandem with US equities. The crypto decoupled from major stock indices on Monday when it crossed $90,000. However, it returned to a correlated movement after the S&P 500 index counted gains in Tuesday’s market session.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a combined $936 million in net inflows on Tuesday, the third-highest daily total this year. Analysts attributed the positive inflows in ETFs to Bitcoin’s continued upward momentum.

According to technical indicators on TradingView, BTC is currently in a full price discovery phase with no historical resistance overhead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 79.44, which is overbought territory, but analysts note that these levels can be sustained during aggressive bull cycles.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 92.8, while the expanding Bollinger Bandwidth of 18.05% signals heightened volatility leaning towards the bulls.

Bitcoin price chart. Source: TheTradeWolf via TradingView

Cantor Fitzgerald-backed Bitcoin SPAC launched

Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald has announced a major new investment initiative through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The vehicle, named Cantor Equity Partners, was founded by Brandon Lutnick, son of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and chair of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Several financial firms, including SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex, will reportedly support the initiative.

As reported by Cryptopolitan, the SPAC raised $200 million in January and will merge with a newly formed company, 21 Capital, which will be seeded with $3 billion in Bitcoin. The investment closely follows the model pioneered by MicroStrategy, converting BTC into equity assets at a valuation of $85,000 per coin.

Tether is contributing $1.5 billion to the project, while Bitfinex is investing $600 million. SoftBank is providing an additional $900 million. The group also plans to raise another $550 million through bond issuances and private equity placements in order to acquire more Bitcoin.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Michelle

Commodity

Copper prices scaled three-week peaks on Wednesday as worries about global trade tensions eased after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested import tariffs on top consumer China could fall.

Benchmark copperon the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.7% at $9,438 a metric ton at 1033 GMT, having reached an earlier peak of $9,481.5, the highest since April 3. It has gained more than 15% since hitting a 17-month low at $8,105 earlier this month.

Both Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have separately suggested there could be a de-escalation in U.S.- China trade tensions and that any trade deal with China could "substantially" cut tariffs.

"The market isn't looking at fundamentals. It's just reacting to what Trump and other U.S. officials are saying," a copper trader said, adding that an easing of Trump's rhetoric against Fed Chair Jerome Powell was also helping sentiment.

Trump backed off from threats to fire Powell after days of intensifying criticisms of the central bank chief for not cutting interest rates.

"In view of the fundamental situation, we remain cautious about the further upward potential of the copper price," Commerzbank said in a note.

Commerzbank cited the International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) latest monthly bulletin showing a surplus of copper, used in the power and construction industries, in February.

"This is surprising given the fears of a shortage of copper ore, which could lead to a reduction in metal processing," Commerzbank said.

Copper output in China , the dominant producer of refined metal, jumped 8.6% year on year in March to 1.25 million tons.

Industrial metals markets are watching surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing for clues to demand prospects. In the euro zone the flash manufacturing PMI index showed shrinking activity in Europe.

In other metals aluminiumadded 1.4% to $2,413 a ton, zincwas up 1.7% to $2,639 leadrose 0.4% to $1,930, tinwas little changed at $31,115 and nickelgained 0.5% at $15,755 a ton.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Global shares mostly rose Wednesday, with markets showing relief after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he won’t dismiss the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

France’s CAC 40 jumped 2.1% in early trading to 7,480.99, while Germany’s DAX rose 2.5% to 21,820.14. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 1.6% to 8,461.24. U.S. shares were set to drift higher with Dow futures up 1.5% at 39,960.00. S&P 500 futures rose 2.0% to 5,421.75.

In Asia, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to finish at 34,868.63. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 surged 1.3% to 7,920.50. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.6% to 2,525.56. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.4% to 222,072.62, while the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 3,296.36.

Trump had previously said he could fire Fed chair Jerome Powell after the Fed paused cuts to short-term interest rates. But Trump told reporters Tuesday, “I have no intention of firing him.”

Investors were also cheered by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Tuesday speech. He said the ongoing tariffs showdown with China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.

“Of course, markets will continue to listen out for the latest White House rhetoric on tariffs and any hints of upcoming trade deals. As such, market direction will more likely than not continue to be dictated by Trump’s latest whims regarding tariffs and trade,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The only prediction many Wall Street strategists are willing to make is that financial markets will likely continue to veer up and down as hopes rise and fall that Trump may negotiate deals with other countries to lower his tariffs. If no such deals come quickly enough, many investors expect the economy to fall into a recession.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its forecast for global economic growth this year to 2.8%, down from 3.3%. A suite of better-than-expected profit reports from big U.S. companies, meanwhile, helped drive U.S. stocks higher.

Also helping market sentiment was the announcement from Elon Musk that he will spend less time in Washington and more time running Tesla after his electric vehicle company reported a big drop in profits. Its results have been hurt by vandalism, widespread protests and calls for a consumer boycott amid a backlash to Musk’s oversight of cost-cutting efforts for the U.S. government.

Tesla reported earnings after U.S. trading closed. Tesla’s quarterly profits fell from $1.39 billion to $409 million, far below analyst estimates.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 80 cents to $64.47 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard added 81 cents to $68.25 a barrel.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar declined to 141.87 Japanese yen from 142.37 yen. The euro cost $1.1390, up from $1.1379.

Source: BNN BIoomberg

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Warren Takunda

Economic

European stocks rebounded on Wednesday, as investors drew some relief from U.S. President Donald Trump saying he had no plans to fire the head of the Federal Reserve, and hinting at lower tariffs for China.

The dollar initially leapt after Trump walked back his threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which shook investor confidence in U.S. assets, although most of those gains had faded as trading began in Europe.

Trump also reiterated he wanted to reach a deal with China where tariffs would not be anywhere near 145%, adding that he would set the terms of a deal if Beijing did not enter talks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was reported on Tuesday as saying he believed there would be a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, but negotiations with Beijing had not yet started and would be a "slog."

"While it is still early days, the mood in the market is evidently shifting and what was a strong 'sell America' vibe flowing through markets yesterday has in part reversed," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.

"Markets are becoming ever more conditioned to the president shooting from the hip and then reversing the stance like it was never a big issue."

Europe's STOXX 600 rose 1.7% on a busy day for earnings, with German software company SAP and BE Semiconductor Industries - a supplier to the chipmaking industry - in focus, while a survey of business activity in Germany showed the private sector slipped back into contraction in early April.

A sharp jump in Asian markets overnight saw MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up nearly 2%, while U.S. stock futures , rose 1.7-2%, suggesting a rally on Wall Street later.

Sentiment had already been shored up by some upbeat earnings, and Tesla rebounded 5% after the bell despite missing forecasts.

Tesla boss Elon Musk said on a call with analysts he would significantly reduce his involvement in work at the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency from next month to focus more on his many companies.

The dollar rose as much as 1.1% against the Japanese yen , which has served as a major safe haven for anyone ditching U.S. assets, before backtracking to show a gain of 0.1% to 141.82, just above seven-month lows below 140.

The euro was down 0.3% at $1.1383 , while the pound was down 0.2% at $1.331.

Longer-dated Treasuries rallied as Trump's reversal on Powell seemed to ease the threat to U.S. monetary and fiscal credibility.

Investors have been worried that White House pressure to cut interest rates would risk fuelling inflation just as Trump's tariffs boost prices.

However, the big picture has not changed enough at this point to prompt investors to start flocking back into U.S. assets, according to Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar.

"Volatility is likely to stay, and we would use any sell-offs to add to positions in Europe and Asia. In these markets, it makes sense to remain humble and nimble, focus on the long term views and trade around these headlines," he said.

Yields on 30-year bonds fell 7.5 basis points to 4.804%, while two-year yields rose 3 bps to 3.82%, as investors attached a lower chance of any immediate rate cuts.

Tariffs are expected to hurt the global economy as the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its forecasts for growth in the United States, China and most countries.

Still, the general improvement in risk sentiment helped oil prices recover some of their hefty losses. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $68.50 a barrel.

Safe-haven gold ran into profit-taking and slipped 2% to $3,314 an ounce , off an all-time peak of $3,500.