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The worst inflation in more than 40 years has vexed both households and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
U.S. inflation-adjusted household income increased but poverty rates showed only modest changes last year, the U.S. Census Bureau reported , offering a mixed snapshot of how American households fared as the economy returned to pre-coronavirus pandemic growth levels, job growth boomed and inflation eased.
Real median household income rose to $80,610 in 2023, up 4.0% from 2022, back to the peak reached in 2019, while earnings for workers as a whole were higher than before the pandemic, a boost to households after multiple years in which workers' wages were outpaced by high inflation.
But the report also showed a main gauge of the nation's poverty rate, adjusted for government support such as food assistance and tax credits as well as household expenses, rose to 12.9% from 12.4% in 2022. The so-called official poverty rate declined to 11.1% from 11.5%.
Census noted, however, that the adjustments to income levels used to determine whether a person lived in poverty were larger for the supplemental measure than for the official measure in 2023. Had the official threshold increase been applied for the supplemental rate, that rate would have declined to 12.0% from 12.4% the prior year.
In 2023, the threshold for the official rate increased by 4.1% to $30,900 for a two-adult, two-child household.
The supplemental child poverty rate, also adjusted and referring to those under the age of 18, rose to 13.7% in 2023 from 12.4% the previous year. The rise in the supplemental child poverty rates was impacted by the end of extra pandemic-related government benefits. For example, extra pandemic-related food assistance programs ended in March of last year in a majority of U.S. states and school meal aid also narrowed.
The income and poverty data for 2023 comes two months before the U.S. presidential election. The shadow cast by a surge in inflation following the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, and how much that has squeezed pocketbooks of voters once government support programs designed to shore up household incomes expired, remains a key issue.
Last year saw the economy continue to post stronger-than-expected growth as it returned to its pre-pandemic path while the unemployment rate by January 2023 was 3.4%, lower than just before the health shock struck. While it ticked up to 3.7% by last December, that was still the lowest level in more than 50 years.
Employment growth averaged around 250,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs a month over the course of 2023, well above the 183,000 average over the decade preceding the pandemic.
This was echoed in the findings of the report. There were 2.1 million more full-time, year-round workers in 2023, and worker earnings were the main driver of household incomes, said Liana Fox, assistant chief of the Economic Characteristics, Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division. "We're seeing people are working more."
The worst inflation in more than 40 years has vexed both households and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The central bank ratcheted up interest rates to more than 5% by the middle of last year and has kept them there since, in a bid to reduce the pace of price increases back to the normal annualized trend of around 2%.
Inflation, by the central bank's preferred measure had fallen from a high of 7.1% on an annual basis in June 2022 to 5.5% at the beginning of 2023, before more than halving to 2.6% by last December. Inflation currently remains at 2.5%.
Household income rose throughout the income distribution, Census said in the report.
Real median household income rose by 5.4% for white households and 5.7% for non-Hispanic white households between 2022 and 2023. There was no significant change in median incomes for Black, Asian, and Hispanic households, the Bureau said.
However, the female to male earnings ratio fell for the first time since 2003, as women's earning growth was outpaced by men's. Real median earnings for men who worked full-time, year-round increased by 3.0%, compared to 1.5% for women with the same working patterns. This could be partly due to a rise in the number of Hispanic women in the workforce last year, Census officials said, as they tend to earn less.
The report also showed that 92.0% of Americans were covered by health insurance for at least part of 2023, roughly unchanged from the previous year.
Gold has been one of the best performers among major commodities this year. It has surged more than 20% year-to-date, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, strong central bank buying and robust Asian purchases. Haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks as well as uncertainty ahead of the US election in November have also supported gold’s record-breaking rally this year.
At the recent Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates on 18 September, stating that "the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear."
Gold prices have gained after Powell affirmed expectations the US central bank will soon start cutting interest rates. Lower borrowing costs are positive for gold as it doesn’t pay interest. The Fed has held its key policy rate in a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% – the highest level in more than two decades – since last July.
The question for the gold market now is the pace at which the Fed will ease its policy.
The latest US jobs data report was mixed, adding to the ongoing debate over how deeply the Fed is going to cut interest rates at its September meeting. Our US economist believes the central bank will opt for a 50bp move, but it’s a close call.
Gold sets a new record as Fed prepares to cut rates
ETF flows turn positive after years of outflows
Demand for gold-backed ETFs has also seen a revival. Global gold ETFs saw inflows four months in a row with all regions recording positive flows and Western funds leading the way in August.
Investor holdings in gold ETFs generally rise when gold prices gain, and vice versa. However, gold ETF holdings have been in decline for much of 2024, while spot gold prices have hit new highs. ETF flows finally turned positive in May.
COMEX futures net long rise further
COMEX total net longs also continued to rise, seeing a 17% month-on-month rise by the end of August, and the highest month-end level since February 2020.
Central bank gold demand picks up in July
Central bank gold demand strengthened in July despite price rises. Reported net purchases by central banks more than doubled to 37 tonnes in July, as data from the World Gold Council shows. This represents a 206% month-on-month increase and the highest monthly total since January when central bank purchases totalled 45 tonnes.
The National Bank of Poland was the leading buyer in the month, followed by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the Reserve Bank of India.
In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold – the second-highest annual purchase in history – following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2022. Looking ahead, we expect central bank demand to remain strong amid the current economic climate and geopolitical tensions.
Central banks keep adding gold
US rate cuts will drive gold to new highs
We believe that the long-awaited Fed rate cut will drive gold to new highs. The US presidential election in November will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year, in our view.
Geopolitics will also remain one of the key factors driving gold prices. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which should offer support.
We now see gold averaging $2,580 in the fourth quarter, resulting in an annual average of $2,388. Gold’s upward momentum will continue next year with 2025 prices averaging $2,700.
Oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico could suffer a decline unless the federal government confirms its deadline for the revision of a law regulating endangered species protection.
Without it, the regulatory process to ensure oil and gas operations are carried out in accordance with the Endangered Species Act would become a lot more cumbersome and complicated, potentially affecting production.
The revision was prompted by a court ruling last month in a case brought against the federal government by climate activists. They claimed the current endangered species risk assessment regulation for oil and gas operations, commonly known as the biological opinion, was inadequate and a new one was needed. The judge agreed and ruled that the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service had until December 20 to update the regulation.
Now, the American Petroleum Institute is warning that if the service takes longer than that, it would disrupt oil and gas operations, for which the biological opinion is mandatory.
“With the Gulf of Mexico producing 15% of our country’s oil supply, halting production would have serious, far-reaching consequences to our economy and energy security,” the API said in a post on X.
In addition to producing 15% of U.S. oil, the Gulf of Mexico also employs more than 400,000 people and generates over $6 billion in federal revenue, the API also said, as quoted by Reuters.
This is not the first time that the industry association has sounded the alarm about the federal government’s biological opinion. Last week, API senior vice president Dustin Meyer said “The ramifications could be potentially enormous for operations in what we and many others recognize is such a vital, producing region,” adding that “The level of concern is very high,” as quoted by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg noted in that report from last week that the Marine Fisheries Service had already started work on an update on the biological opinion but had said during court proceedings it would not be able to complete it “until late winter or early spring 2025.”
The platinum market is expected to see its biggest annual deficit in at least a decade but prices have so far been slow to react, according to an industry report.
A sharp rise in holdings by exchange-traded funds and strong growth in Chinese demand for large bars is forecast to help create a shortfall of more than 1 million ounces in 2024, according to a quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council. That comes after a deficit of 731,000 ounces last year.
“Even with deficits of this magnitude, the platinum price appears unresponsive,” said WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond. However, sentiment is shifting toward higher-for-longer automotive demand, which should help platinum’s strong underlying fundamentals play “a more prominent role”, he added.
Platinum has dropped about 30% from a peak in early 2021, while sister metals palladium and rhodium have posted much steeper drops amid uncertainty over demand from the auto industry, which uses the metals to curb emissions from diesel and gasoline vehicles. That’s dented the profitability of some higher-cost operations in South Africa, the biggest producer of platinum.
Holdings in platinum ETFs surged by 444,000 ounces during the April-June period — the highest quarterly inflow since 2020 — thanks to the precious metal’s relative underperformance versus gold and strengthening fundamentals, the report said. Full-year gains are forecast to moderate to just 150,000 ounces, it said.
Total platinum demand is forecast to rise to 8.12 million ounces in 2024, also helped by a 7% gain from the jewellery sector. Overall industrial and automotive demand, which make up the bulk of the market, are both expected to nudge higher.
Meanwhile, total mined supply is forecast to fall 2% to 5.51 million ounces in 2024, as operations in South Africa are restructured and refined production declines in Russia, WPIC said. Above-ground platinum stockpiles are expected to dwindle by 25% to about three million ounces.
“With the marked slowdown in the growth of battery electric vehicle market penetration rates and the normalisation of palladium and rhodium prices, underlying fundamentals are expected to return to being the major platinum price setting factor going forwards,” said Edward Sterck, director of research at the WPIC.
Blackstone Inc. is selling $1.05 billion of commercial mortgage bonds to help pay for a deal it struck in April to acquire AIR Communities, an apartment landlord.
The debt consists of six tranches of securities, with ratings ranging from AAA to BB-, according to people familiar with the matter. An interest-only loan backing the CMBS bonds will carry a floating rate, the people said.
The bonds add to an earlier $2.95 billion of CMBS that Blackstone sold in July which were also backed by AIR Communities properties.
A representative for Blackstone declined to comment.
Blackstone struck a deal in April to buy Apartment Income REIT, known as AIR Communities, for $10 billion. It said at the time that it would invest more than $400 million to maintain and bolster the company’s portfolio of apartment buildings.
Issuance of CMBS has been torrid recently, with overall sales this year through Monday of $69.7 billion. Spreads on the debt are wider today than they were at the start of the year, but are still below levels from much of last year when concerns over the credit quality of commercial real estate were widespread.
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