US Third-Quarter Economic Growth Revised Higher

Economic

Summary:

U.S. third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 3.1%, driven by strong consumer spending. The economy continues to grow above the Fed's target, prompting fewer expected rate cuts in 2025.

The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending.

Gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.1% annualized rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third estimate of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. The economy was previously reported to have expanded at a 2.8% pace last quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP would be unrevised. The revision reflected upgrades to consumer spending and export growth, which offset a downward revision to private inventory investment and upward revision to imports.

The economy grew at a 3.0% pace in the April-June quarter. It is expanding at a pace that is well above what Federal Reserve officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday delivered a third consecutive rate cut, but projected only two reductions in borrowing costs next year compared to the four it had forecast in September, citing continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation.

There are also concerns that some of the incoming Trump administration's policies, including tax cuts, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and tariffs on imported goods, would be inflationary.

The Fed's policy rate was reduced by 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range. It was hiked by 5.25 percentage points between March 2022 and July 2023 to tame inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday that "it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession," adding that "the U.S. economy has just been remarkable, I feel very good about where the economy is ... and we want to keep that going."

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, grew at a 3.7% pace. That was revised up from the previously estimated 3.5% rate.

A measure of domestic demand that excludes government spending, trade and inventories increased at a 3.4% pace. Final sales to private domestic purchasers were previously estimated to have risen at a 3.2% rate. Domestic demand increased at a 2.7% pace in the second quarter.

National after-tax profits without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments decreased $15.0 billion, or 0.4%. They were previously estimated to have risen $0.2 billion, or unchanged in percentage terms.

When measured from the income side, the economy grew at a 2.1% rate last quarter, lowered from the initially estimated 2.2% pace. Gross domestic income (GDI) increased at a 2.0% rate in the second quarter.

In principle, GDP and GDI should be equal, but in practice they differ as they are estimated using different and largely independent source data. Annual benchmark revisions have sharply narrowed the gap between GDP and GDI.

The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, increased at a 2.6% rate. That was revised up from the 2.5% rate reported last month. Gross domestic output grew at a 2.5% pace in the April-June quarter.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Global stock markets ended Thursday in a sea of red following the Fed's hawkish pivot, leading to a broad-based selloff not seen since August.

The souring sentiment caused major benchmarks on both sides of the Atlantic to tumble, dimming hopes for a Santa Rally.

Yields on major benchmark government bonds in the Eurozone rose, mirroring their US counterparts, as the Fed projected fewer rate cuts in 2025.

The German 10-year government bond yield climbed 6 basis points to 2.3%, the highest in nearly a month.

The US 10-year government bond yield surged to 4.56%, the highest since May, rising by 17 basis points over the past two days.

The bond market turmoil continued to weigh on equity markets, with all regional stocks likely ending the week lower, just days before Christmas.

Europe

Major European benchmarks all recorded weekly losses, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling 2.32%, the DAX declining 2.14%, the CAC 40 slipping by 1.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 dropping 2.35%.

All sectors were in negative territory, with energy and industrial stocks leading the week’s losses. The two sectors continued to underperform due to falling oil and metal prices.

Over the past five trading days, shares of Shell and BP slumped more than 4%, while Rio Tinto and Glencore’s stocks fell nearly 9%, particularly weighing on British stock markets.

Meanwhile, technology stocks declined following the Fed’s hawkish rate cut, with ASML down 3.69% and SAP falling 1.35% on Thursday.

On the economic front, December’s flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data came in lower than expected in Germany and France, indicating that the sector’s downturn deepened.

On a brighter note, services PMIs in Germany and the eurozone returned to growth this month, according to S&P Global’s estimates.

However, this expansion was insufficient to offset the broader economic challenges.

In the UK, the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 4.75%, as widely expected.

However, Governor Andrew Bailey stated: “With heightened uncertainty in the economy, we cannot commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year,” while reiterating a gradual approach to future rate cuts.

The dovish tone contrasted sharply with the Fed’s hawkish stance, causing the British pound to weaken significantly against the dollar, hitting its lowest level since May.

Wall Street

The US stock markets experienced a significant retreat this week following the Fed’s hawkish rate cut.

Over the past five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.39%, the S&P 500 slid 3.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.8%. The small cap, Russel 2000, tumbled 5.5% due to expectations of a slow pace of rate cuts.

In the S&P 500, all eleven sectors ended in negative territory, with the interest-rate-sensitive real estate sector leading losses, down 6.84% for the week.

The energy sector followed, dropping 6.76%, while industrials fell 5.67% compared to last week.

Most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks declined on a weekly basis, with Nvidia down 4.85% and Meta Platforms falling 5.58%. Tesla, however, bucked the trend, rising 4.32% week-on-week.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the total reduction this year to one full percentage point.

However, its dot plot projected just two cuts next year, down from four in its previous forecast. The final third-quarter GDP growth came in at an annualised pace of 3.1%, higher than the first two estimates.

This data further evidenced a resilient economy, reinforcing expectations of a gradual easing cycle by the Fed.

Asia

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged this week and provided little guidance on future rate decisions.

Markets interpreted this as dovish, reducing the likelihood of a January rate hike. The Japanese yen weakened sharply against the dollar, reaching its lowest level since July.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged, as expected.

The Fed’s hawkish pivot may have influenced the PBOC to slow its pace of rate cuts, helping to stabilise the tumbling yuan. The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar to its lowest level since November 2023 on Thursday.

Elsewhere, New Zealand’s economy slipped into a technical recession once again. Third-quarter GDP contracted by 1% compared to the previous quarter, following a 1.1% contraction in Q2.

Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth constitute a technical recession.

Source: Euronews

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Alex

Economic

Commodity

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $29.00 in Friday’s European trading session. The white metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Economists expect the US annual core PCE inflation data to have accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8% in October. On month, the underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.2%. Signs of mild slowdown in price pressures are unlikely to impact market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause the policy-easing spell in the policy meeting in January 2025. However, a sharp deceleration could weigh on them. On the contrary, a mild or sharp acceleration in price pressures would strengthen them.

In the policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed reduced its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% but signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025. The Fed dot plot showed that officials collectively see Federal Fund rates heading to 3.9% by 2025 against 3.4% projected in September.

Ahead of the US PCE inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower after posting a fresh two-year high at 108.50. 10-year US Treasury yields tick lower to 4.56% from a fresh six-month high of 4.60%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slides below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.35. The white metal weakens after a breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline around $30.20, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 range, guiding a downside momentum ahead.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Source: FXSTREET

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Owen Li

Economic

Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 has reversed its bullish momentum where at the start of this week, it was the sole major US benchmark stock index to print a fresh all-time high of 22,133 on Monday, 16 December.

The ex-post release of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy’s latest “dot plot” and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, 18 December, have spooked the US stock market. The Fed has indicated the prospect of lesser interest rate cuts in 2025 due to the risk of inflationary pressure resurgence (some Fed officials have taken into account the effects of the incoming Trump administration’s “America First” policy).

The heightened prospect of a transition from a Fed “dovish pivot” to a “normalization” pivot in 2025 is likely the narrative at this juncture that may dim the hopes of the seasonal “Santa Rally” for this year-end.

The higher beta Nasdaq 100 recorded a loss of 4% from 18 December to 19 December (open to close) ex-post FOMC, the second worst performer among the four major US stock indices; Russell 2000 (-5.3%), S&P 500 (-3%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.6%).

Several technical elements have now flashed out an increasing odd of a medium-term (multi-week) correction on the Nasdaq 100

Weak market breadth

Fig 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 component stocks above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 19 Dec 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Since the start of December 2024, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages has fallen. In contrast, the price actions of the Nasdaq 100 have kept rocketing upwards to print record highs in the recent two weeks.

Right now, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day moving averages have plummeted to 9.9% as of 19 December. Also, the Nasdaq 100 component stocks above their respective 50-day moving averages have declined to 33.7% (see Fig 1).

20,790 is the last line of defense for the Nasdaq 100

Fig 2: Nasdaq 100 CFD major & medium-term trends as of 20 Dec 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The recent past three days of price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures have reintegrated below the upper boundary of its long-term secular ascending channel from the March 2020 low. This observation suggests the bullish breakout seen on 4 December is a failure acceleration move.

Since its all-time high on 16 December, it has declined by 5.5%. It is now hovering right above its 50-day moving average, which is acting as key intermediate support at 20,790.

The latest reading seen from the daily RSI momentum indicator suggests that the 20,790 key intermediate support is likely to be a “weak support” as the RSI has broken below a parallel ascending trendline support and breached below the 50 level that indicates a revival of medium-term bearish momentum (see Fig 2).

In addition, fewer Nasdaq 100 component stocks managed to record new 52-week highs since 14 November 2024 as the 10-day moving average of the difference between new 52-week highs minus 52-week lows has shaped a lower high.

Hence, a break with a daily close below the 20,790 key intermediate support may trigger a multi-week corrective decline sequence to expose the medium-term supports of 19,840 and 18,310 in the first step.

On the other hand, clearance above the 22,470/980 medium-term pivotal resistance zone invalidates the bearish scenario for the continuation of its impulsive upmove sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 23,980/24,440 and 25,080/570.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Cohen

Economic

TOKYO (Dec 20): Japan's minority ruling coalition on Friday failed to secure support from a key opposition party for its tax reform plans, jeopardising Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's budget agenda for next year.

Without opposition support for the plans, which form the basis of next year's state budget, the ruling camp may struggle to get its budget and tax reform bills through parliament.

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its small coalition ally Komeito said they agreed to lift the tax-free income threshold from ¥1.03 million (US$6,556 or RM29,574) to ¥1.23 million, the first change since 1995 to reflect rising living costs.

But the new threshold, included in the tax reform framework for the next fiscal year from April, is far short of the ¥1.78 million demanded by the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP).

"With the planned ¥1.23 million threshold, there is no way for us to support the state budget," DPP lawmaker Yuichiro Tamaki said on social media platform X on Friday.

Yoichi Miyazawa, chair of the LDP's tax system panel, told a news conference the ruling camp would continue discussions with the DPP.

Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in a snap election he called for October, and it now needs the support of the DPP or other opposition parties to pass legislation through parliament.

The finance ministry calculated that hiking the threshold to ¥1.78 million would reduce tax revenue by up to ¥8 trillion, likely thereby adding to Japan's already huge public debt.

The LDP's Miyazawa said the coalition's proposed threshold hike would cut revenue by just ¥700 billion.

The tax reform plans will be approved by the cabinet as early as next week. Based on the tax plans, the government is set to draft a state budget by the end of this year.

The ruling coalition plans also include raising the country's corporate and tobacco taxes from April 2026 to fund more defence spending.

The step follows through on former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's commitment to raise taxes to double defence spending to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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ING

Economic

Commodity

Energy – WTI settles below $70/bbl

Crude oil prices edged lower with NYMEX WTI closing below $70/bbl while ICE Brent settled below $73/bbl yesterday. The oil market witnessed a second straight session of decline as the strengthening dollar weighs on the complex.

The latest data from Insights Global shows that refined product inventories in the ARA region increased by just 16kt over the week to 6.3mt. The additions in gasoil and gasoline stocks were balanced by the declines reported in other oil products stocks. Gasoil stocks in the ARA region increased by 57kt week-on-week to 2.2mt for the week ending 19 December. Similarly, gasoline inventories rose by 12kt to 1.4mt over the reporting week.

In Singapore, Enterprise Singapore data shows that total oil product stocks increased by 9.7m barrels for a seventh straight week to 54.4m barrels as of 18 December, the highest since August 2020. Residue stocks increased by 11.05m barrels whilst light and middle distillate stocks decreased by 556k barrels and 813k barrels, respectively. It is reported that inventories of heavy fuels rose by the most ever in a week, with levels at the highest since June 2016.

Meanwhile, US natural gas prices moved higher for a fourth consecutive session as weekly inventory numbers reported outflows, whilst expectations of a cold start to January raised hopes for increased consumption of the heating fuel. The weekly data shows that US gas storage decreased by 125Bcf last week, slightly lower than the 127Bcf increase the market was expecting. However, this was well above the five-year average decline of 92Bcf. Total gas stockpiles totalled 3.62Tcf as of 13 December, which is just 0.6% above last year and 3.8% above the five-year average.

Metals – Indonesia mulls mining cuts

Indonesia is considering implementing deep cuts to the nickel mining quota primarily to support the falling prices of the battery metal. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is said to be planning to restrict the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined to 150mt in 2025, sharply down from 272mt this year. However, the discussions about the size of the potential reduction are still ongoing with the government. Rising supply from Indonesia and slower-than-expected demand growth have been weighing on nickel prices. However, the announcement failed to offer any immediate support to LME nickel with prices falling to their lowest since November 2020 yesterday, as market participants continue to focus on the broader weakness in risk assets.

In zinc, market reports suggest that Toho Zinc Co. located in Japan will shut down its unprofitable zinc smelting business by the year-end, as ore-processing fees continue to hover near multi-year lows. The Japanese company is also withdrawing from mining investments following a “significant loss” in the mineral resources division.

Agriculture – EU lowers corn and wheat output estimates

In its latest cereals market situation report, the European Commission estimated that the bloc’s grain production could fall to 255.8mt for the 2024/25 season, compared to its previous projections of 256.9mt. This is largely driven by a decrease in soft wheat production estimates, which fell from 112.3mt from November projections to 111.9mt for the period mentioned above. This is due to a reduction in the harvest area to 20.2m hectares from 20.3m hectares. Similarly, corn production estimates were revised down slightly to 59.5mt from its previous projections of 59.6mt.

Meanwhile, in its weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s corn planting estimates to 65.8% complete for the 2024/25 season, up from 55.6% estimated earlier. Sufficient rain has been helpful for the planting season so far. Meanwhile, the exchange reported that the corn planting area remained unchanged at 6.3m ha for the above-mentioned period. Similarly, soybean planting estimates were raised to 76.6% for the 2024/25 season from its previous estimates of 64.7%. The exchange further added that the forecast for more showers could continue to improve the country’s wheat crop condition as well.

US weekly net export sales for the week ending 12 December show strong demand for US grains over the week. US corn shipments surged to 1,177kt, higher than the 946.9kt a week ago and 1,014kt for the same period last year. This was also higher than the average market expectations of 1,013kt. Similarly, wheat shipments rose to 458kt, higher than the 290.2kt reported in the previous week and 326kt a year ago. The market was expecting a number closer to 329kt. Meanwhile, soybean shipments stood at 1,424.2kt, higher than the 1,173.8kt reported a week ago but lower than the 2,133.4kt reported a year ago. The average market expectations stood at 1,256kt.

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SAXO

Economic

Macro data and headlines

UK Nov. Retail Sales out this morning were weaker than expected, posting a +0.3% reading ex Auto Fuel M/M versus +0.5% expected and a +0.1% Y/Y vs. +0.9% expected.

The Bank of England waxed dovish, with three dissenting dovish votes calling for a rate cut as the bank decided to hold rates at a G10 high of 4.75% yesterday. BoE Governor Bailey said that the it’s right for the bank to remain on its “gradual approach to future interest-rate cuts”, and the BoE policymakers said they would look through the recent strong wage data and stay on course.

US government shutdown risk: US President-elect Trump and the DOGE committee (Musk and Ramaswamy) pushed House Republicans to vote against the Continuing Resolution (CR) bill due to excessive spending. The Republicans rejected a three-month stop-gap funding extension with negotiations for a new bill ongoing. Reports suggested that Republicans are eyeing a funding plan B that excludes a debt ceiling increase and are instead working on a commitment to raise the borrowing limit twice next year under reconciliation. According to NBC Trump would support abolishing the debt ceiling.

US initial jobless claims fell to 220k (prev. 242k) beneath the expected 230k, with the 4wk average ticking higher to 225k from 224.25. Continued claims fell to 1.874mln (exp. 1.890mln) from the revised lower 1.879mln and came in marginally below the bottom end of the consensus range.

US Philadelphia Fed Business Survey posted a very negative December reading of -16.4 versus +2.8 expected and -5.5, which will lower the expectations for the December ISM Manufacturing report, out in early January.

Equities

US: US stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow recovering 15 points (+0.04%) after its longest losing streak since 1974. The S&P 500 fell marginally by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.47%, driven by continued weakness in tech names like Nvidia (-1.2%). Micron shares plunged 16% in after-hours trading due to weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Nike reported earnings after the market close as new CEO Elliot Hill outlined his turnaround plan and issued cautious comments about near-term challenges. Shares initially surged over 10% before reversing gains and closing lower. Investors remain cautious ahead of today’s PCE inflation data, a critical measure for Fed policy expectations.

Europe: European markets fell sharply, with the STOXX 600 dropping 1.51% and the Euro STOXX 50 losing 1.58%, marking the steepest decline in over a month. Tech and real estate led the losses, with ASML (-3.69%) and Infineon (-5.39%) under pressure after weak guidance from Micron. Sweden's central bank cut rates, while the Bank of England held steady but with dovish signals. Volatility rose, with the Eurozone’s V2TX index hitting three-week highs. Market focus now shifts to US inflation data and global rate expectations.

Asia: Asian stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors digested hawkish Fed signals. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose slightly (+0.08%) as Chinese tech and banking shares provided support. However, the broader region struggled, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling 1.3% amid political uncertainty and chipmaker losses. Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.2%, buoyed by a weaker yen after the Bank of Japan maintained steady rates. Chinese markets saw modest gains, led by tech shares, as optimism grows over Beijing’s fiscal stimulus plans for 2025.

Volatility

Volatility receded on Thursday, with the VIX dropping 12.78% to 24.09, though it remains elevated following Wednesday’s Fed-driven spike. Expected moves for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have normalized but remain above average ahead of the PCE inflation report, which could act as a fresh volatility catalyst. A record $6.6 trillion in options expiring during today’s “triple witching” event adds to the potential for market swings.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin slipped 3.7% to $97,002, marking its third straight day of losses as hawkish Fed projections weighed on risk assets. Altcoins saw sharper declines, with Ethereum (-7.5%) and Solana (-6.4%) underperforming. Market sentiment remains cautious, further dampened by Fed Chair Powell’s dismissal of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative. However, Bitcoin found support near the $97,000 mark, signaling strong interest at these levels despite the macro headwinds.

Fixed Income

The US treasury yield curve steepened yesterday as the 2-year treasury benchmark eased lower and the 10-year benchmark rose a couple of basis points, trading 4.55% this morning. This took the yield curve to its steepest for the cycle, with the 2-10 at 25 basis points this morning, the steepest since early 2022.

The UK 10-year Gilt traded briefly to new highs since 2023 and above the November high of 4.59%, posting a high of 4.65% before Gilts rallied and the yield dropped back to close at 4.58% yesterday.

Japanese government bond yields dropped another couple of basis points all along the curve after the very dovish Bank of Japan meeting yesterday.

Commodities

Gold tried to rally yesterday, erasing much of the reaction to the jump in US treasury yields on the back of the FOMC meeting at one point, but the rally faded back to below 2,600, with the price action just above that level this morning. 2,537 is the next major chart point of note there. Silver, meanwhile, slipped lower trading below USD 29 per ounce before finding support, with copper’s weakness (not far from the critical USD 4/lb. level) weighing.

Crude oil continues to trade in a narrow range – awaiting developments above 71.5 or below 66.5.

Currencies

The Japanese yen suffered a massive sell-off in the wake of a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting, trading nearly to 158.00 in the Asian session, and thus more than 2% higher than before the Thursday BoJ, before easing back near 157.00 and belowin late Asian session trading today. That saw it clearing the November high of 156.75, with US long treasury yields likely a coincident indicator for prospects of whether USDJPY will mount a charge on the 160+ top.

Sterling sold off on the dovish read of the Bank of England (see wrap at top of this article), with EURGBP making the recent 0.8220 area lows more emphatic after a revisit of that area ahead of the BoE decision and a rally to 0.8300+ in its wake. GBPUSD challenged below the multi-month 1.2487 low for November in the Asian session overnight – next level the 2024 low of 1.2300.

Divergent action in the Scandies, as NOK weakened as the Norges Bank touted a likely rate reduction in March (not much of a reaction in rates, however), while SEK firmed sharply on the Riksbank making a hawkish cut as it forecast that it “may” only add one additional cut in the first half of next year, raising its core inflation forecast for next year to 2.0% from 1.6% previously. The Swedish 2-year rate jumped about 10 basis points.

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US Third-Quarter Economic Growth Revised Higher

Source: Reuters

Global Markets in Sea of Red as the Fed Dims Hopes of Santa Rally

Europe

Wall Street

Asia

Source: Euronews

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates Around $29 As Investors Await US PCE Inflation Data

Silver technical analysis

Silver FAQs

Source: FXSTREET

Nasdaq 100 Technical: At Risk Of Staging A Multi-week Corrective Decline

Fig 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 component stocks above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 19 Dec 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Fig 2: Nasdaq 100 CFD major & medium-term trends as of 20 Dec 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Japan's Ruling Camp Fails To Secure Opposition Support For Tax Reforms

Source: Theedgemarkets

The Commodities Feed: Stronger USD Prompts Oil Sell-off

Energy – WTI settles below $70/bbl

Metals – Indonesia mulls mining cuts

Agriculture – EU lowers corn and wheat output estimates

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 December 2024

Macro data and headlines

Equities

Volatility

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