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The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut this week, marking the third reduction this year. Key economic data from China, the UK, and the US will also be in focus, including China's GDP and UK inflation.
European companies are calling for stronger European Union (EU) engagement in Southeast Asia. In fact, the latest EU-Asean Business Sentiment Survey reveals a record 59% of European businesses polled felt that the EU is not doing enough to support their interests in Southeast Asia, marking the highest level of dissatisfaction recorded since the survey was launched in 2015.
And it’s not just the companies talking; speaking to ministers, senior officials and policymakers across Southeast Asia as I regularly do, eyebrows are being raised at the EU’s absence in crucial areas where other global players are all too eager to show up.
This might seem strange to some. The EU’s track record in Asean is commendable: it is among the region’s largest aid and development donors, with several hundred million euros invested in projects across Asean Community Pillars and more funds allocated for future initiatives. However, the EU has not sufficiently highlighted these contributions.
Free Trade Agreements (FTA) have been signed with Vietnam and Singapore, which also recently signed a Digital Trade Agreement with the EU, while ongoing FTA negotiations with Indonesia, Thailand and soon, the Philippines are paving the way for even stronger ties. Add to that the trade preference arrangements with several other Asean member states, and the efforts of the Joint Working Group on EU-Asean Trade and Investment it is clear that on the trade front, things have never looked rosier. Credit is due to the team at DG Trade in Brussels for their efforts in advancing this progress.
Meanwhile, the EU and Asean now share a strategic partnership bolstered by a plan of action to bring it to life. On paper, it is an impressive document highlighting many potential and actual collaboration areas. Yet, much of the action remains behind the scenes, uncelebrated and unremarked on. That is a pity and a missed opportunity for Europe to sing about the work being done, while Asean’s other dialogue partners do this with great fanfare, even when their contributions to the region are smaller in comparison.
It should come as no surprise then that many of these countries enjoy a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Asean, while the EU can only hope to have its status upgraded in 2027, when both sides celebrate 50 years of bilateral relations.
Asean is central to the EU’s Indo-Pacific policy and has explicitly called for greater engagement with all its dialogue partners — not only to balance geopolitical dynamics but to drive more just, equitable and sustainable regional development.
Yet, despite these clear signals, the EU’s response has been lukewarm, creating a vacuum that is being filled by other global players, including Russia and China, who are more than willing to exploit the opportunities that come with deeper engagement.
The biggest concern for European businesses is the glaring lack of EU engagement at the highest levels in key areas. There is another opportunity for a meeting between the EU and Asean Economic Ministers (AEM) in September, which is traditionally one of the most important region-to-region interactions. No European trade commissioner has physically met their Asean counterparts in person since 2018, and it appears that will remain the case this year.
There have been legitimate reasons, such as travel restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, but in a region where Asean’s other dialogue partners consistently show up at the ministerial level, this absence is noticeable. Beyond the AEM-EU consultations, the only other regular ministerial meeting has been with Asean foreign ministers, where High Representaive/Vice_President Josep Borrell and his predecessor Federica Mogherini have been ever present at Post-Ministerial Dialogues.
The economic ministers’ meeting is one of many forums where the EU has been absent. While countries like the US, China, Japan, South Korea and Australia are engaging at the highest levels in regular meetings with Asean ministerial bodies on digital, health, agriculture, energy, transport, customs and financial services issues, the EU is often represented at senior officials’ level, and frequently not from those travelling from Brussels.
This leaves European businesses navigating the complexities of the Asean market without the high-level political support that their competitors enjoy. The lack of EU representation puts us at a disadvantage — we miss out on the opportunity to influence regulations, standards and policies that directly impact our regional operations. There is also a growing suspicion that European companies are being sidelined in favour of competitors from other countries whose governments are more visibly and actively engaging with Asean.
This is a matter of more than optics. It sends a message: the EU is just not as committed to Asean as others. This has the potential to undo years of trust and good work that has been built. The EU’s slip in the recent State of Southeast Asia survey reflects this, potentially harming the long-term prospects of European businesses in the region.
There is still time for the EU to step up its engagement with Asean, but it requires more than just words on paper. Ministerial-level representation on energy issues would be a good start — Europe has established a continent-wide power grid and, therefore, should have valuable insights for Asean on what worked and what did not as the region develops its own power grid.
It should also be an active partner in the digital economy space at a time when Asean is negotiating what would be the world’s first regional agreement on digital economy. Given how the European Green Deal has ruffled feathers in this part of the world, high-level engagement with Asean environment ministers would seem a no-brainer. Much could be done to facilitate mutual collaboration on health issues, as demonstrated by the recent US-Asean Ministerial Meeting on health. The list goes on.
As economic and geopolitical alliances are increasingly shaped by who is present at the table, the EU cannot afford to be seen as disengaged. Admittedly, dealing with Asean is not always easy, and there will be difficulties — as there are in any relationship. But the region likes to be seen to be valued, deservedly so, and that means making an effort to visit even when there are no grand announcements to be made.
Europe and Asean need each other as partners, and like any friendship, regular communication is essential.
With a new European Commission being formed at the end of this year, we can only hope it will ramp up engagement with Asean going forward and see more European commissioners engaging directly with their Asean counterparts.
After all, Asean is among the few economic bright spots in the world today, and one of significant geopolitical importance. The EU should make efforts to become a proactive and reliable partner for the region. This will ensure that both the EU and European businesses have a strong voice in Asean’s most critical discussions, allowing them to continue to thrive in this dynamic region.
There are three obvious ways that our forecasts could be too pessimistic.
Firstly, the US economy continues to prove resilient despite the negative signals coming from some of the recent survey data. Healthy profit margins and corporate balance sheets allow the economy to shrug off the impact of past rate hikes. The unemployment rate falls back to or below 4%, undershooting the Federal Reserve’s year-end forecast of 4.4%. Labour supply growth stalls as the recent surge in migration ebbs away, but layoffs stay contained. The addition of extended/expanded tax cuts, which are likely if Trump wins the Presidency and a clean sweep in Congress, would add to the stronger growth/higher inflation narrative. The end of election uncertainty may also provide a short-lived boost to investment, regardless of who wins.
Secondly, China manages to return to annual growth rates in excess of 5%. That may be down to more aggressive government stimulus, be it fiscal or monetary, or if we begin to see the housing market turning a corner. Past measures successfully restore confidence in the market, which in turn boosts consumer activity via the wealth effect and improved sentiment.
Finally, the tensions in the Middle East subside – or at least stabilise – and/or the war in Ukraine peacefully ends earlier than many expect.
The combination of stronger global demand, especially from China, as well as calmer geopolitics and the possible anticipation of Ukrainian reconstruction, would be a boost for European (particularly German) industry.
All of this means that central banks can become more relaxed about growth. While they would likely continue to cut rates, recognising that a more neutral setting is still necessary, these cuts are likely to be slower than in our base case. The terminal rate also ends up higher than expected, as policymakers remain on their guard for the second-round effects of stronger growth on inflation. Depending on how far rates fall initially, that could even entail some very modest rate hikes in the second half of 2025. Either way, this scenario implies a terminal rate closer to 4% in the US and 3% in the eurozone.
The same three drivers that we’ve discussed above could just as easily become a source of downside risk, too.
Firstly, the recent US data turns out to have been massively overstating economic resilience. We already know that payrolls are set to be revised down, but so far only as far as March. More substantial revisions may eventually follow thereafter. This implies that the Sahm rule, which has been triggered by a half-a-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate from its prior 12-month low, turns out to be a reliable recession signal after all.
Secondly, the risk is that the challenges in the Chinese property market continue to mount despite recent government stimulus. Sentiment remains weak. And local government finances, which were previously heavily reliant on land sales and real estate development, prove to be a major drag on economic activity.
But it’s oil that is undoubtedly the biggest “known unknown” in our global macro forecast. The risk, as our commodities team has detailed, is that material escalation in the Middle East, prompted by a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, doubles oil prices.
The impact on inflation would be substantial. Headline CPI in the US/eurozone would increase by 1.5-2.0ppt due to gasoline costs alone, and by greater still once the indirect impact on food and other goods prices is accounted for. Both the US and eurozone slip into recession.
Consumer spending turns weaker in the major economies, and the challenges the manufacturing industry is already experiencing become magnified. Greater use of tariffs, depending on the US election winner, would add to those issues.
Central banks face a dilemma – look through the rise in oil prices and support demand, or keep rates elevated in order to balance second-round effects. Experience from the past couple of years suggests policymakers might opt for the latter. Rates fall back to neutral more quickly but don’t go materially “accommodative”.
However, that stance could quickly change assuming the recession in major economies causes widespread layoffs and a further spike in US/European unemployment rates. Higher central bank rates would become increasingly untenable and that ultimately forces a second wave of rate cuts into more expansionary territory and central banks switch focus to generating a recovery.
An unexpected recession, coupled with initially elevated central bank rates, could imply even greater scrutiny of government finances. Rate cuts would still herald some relief for debt interest costs, but any positive impact that has on deficits is offset by lower revenues/higher social spending. Government bond yields trade with a greater fiscal risk premium, potentially implying wider spreads in Europe. That would add another layer of difficulty for the eurozone economy.
BMI has cut its forecast for its key rice futures contracts, at an average price of US$14.85 per cwt ( hundredweight) in 2025, following easing of rice exports by India — Malaysia’s top rice supplier.
BMI, a unit of Fitch group, said this marks a 6.3% downward revision from its previous Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)-listed second-month rough rice futures.
BMI’s 2024 average price outlook has also been adjusted to US$16.35 per cwt, slightly lower than earlier projections. As of Oct 4, 2024, rice futures closed at US$15.25 per cwt.
The revision followed India’s move to ease its rice export restrictions end of September, impacting global rice prices.
The Indian Ministry of Finance repealed the ban on non-basmati white rice exports and reduced the duty on parboiled rice exports from 20% to 10%. Following these changes, Thailand saw a significant drop in rice export prices. For example, quotations for 5% broken white rice decreased by over 10% between Sept 25 and Oct 2.
Meanwhile, BMI said US rice exports have shown strong performance, with traders accumulating nearly 965,000 tonnes by the week ending Sept 26, 2024.
This represents a 26.9% increase compared to the previous year and a four-season high. Harvesting progress is also ahead, with 86% of the US rice crop harvested by early October.
The Atlantic hurricane season poses some risk, but the pace of the US rice harvest reduces potential threats.
Speculators have reduced their net short positions in rough rice futures, reflecting changing market sentiment. India’s previous export restrictions had initially supported elevated international rice prices.
India’s easing of restrictions has already influenced market dynamics, leading to a sharp fall in prices for Thai rice exports. We anticipate further price adjustments in the FAO Rice Price Update in November. Our long-term outlook predicts a production surplus in the global rice sector for the 2024/2025 season.
World rice production is expected to rise by 1.3% to 528 million tonnes, while consumption will increase marginally to 522 million tonnes.
However, the easing of Indian export restrictions might boost rice consumption, presenting potential risks to our forecast. “We also note a potential upside risk to production due to anticipated La Niña conditions in Southeast Asia,” said BMI.
“In the coming years, we expect the rice market to remain in surplus, though weather-related disruptions could alter this outlook,” said BMI.
Asia’s per capita rice consumption is likely to decline due to income growth and dietary diversification. Sub-Saharan Africa is poised to drive global rice consumption and import demand.
Between 2010 and 2022, per capita rice consumption in Africa increased, with Eastern Africa seeing significant growth. The region’s rice production deficit has widened, sustaining strong demand for imports.
Demographic trends, including population growth, will likely increase Africa’s share of global rice consumption. Consequently, the share of world rice production that is exported is expected to rise.
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