EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Although short-term forecasts lean toward a stronger USD, the long-term trajectory may evolve with ongoing policy developments.

USD Outlook: The Role of Domestic Policies and Global Trade Dynamics

The outlook for the U.S. dollar (USD) is heavily shaped by domestic policies, particularly those emphasizing tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation under the Trump administration. Most likely this focus on protective tariffs could increase import costs for the U.S., exerting pressure on foreign economies while potentially incentivizing U.S.-based production. At the same time, measures such as easing regulations for businesses and offering tax incentives are expected to strengthen domestic industries, which could add momentum to the USD. However, a stronger dollar is not a foregone conclusion. Reactions from global markets and countermeasures by other governments could offset these U.S. policies, leading to a more balanced currency outcome.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_1

Recent volatility in the USD has highlighted market sensitivity to policy uncertainties. A rise in profit-taking in several currency pairs, a reflection of traders’ cautious approach to the unpredictable trajectory of tariffs and other economic measures. This pattern suggests that while some expect short-term gains in the USD, there is hesitancy given the possibility of rapid shifts in trade policies. In response to potential U.S. economic moves, other nations may take strong fiscal actions. China, for example, could introduce further stimulus, while Germany may contemplate fiscal expansion, both of which could mitigate the effects of U.S. policies on the USD. While U.S. domestic measures lean toward strengthening the USD, these potential international responses might reduce the overall impact, underscoring the complexity of the dollar’s outlook.

EUR Outlook: Economic Pressures and Policy Challenges for the Euro

The outlook for the Euro (EUR) is clouded by economic challenges and policy uncertainties across the Eurozone. GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone, estimating a 0.5% contraction due to mounting trade tensions and potential spillover effects from global economic policies. To address this economic drag, I’m anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) may pursue further rate cuts as a stimulus measure, which would likely exert downward pressure on the Euro.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_2

Trade policies, even those primarily targeting China, could still indirectly impact the Eurozone. As the U.S. considers interest rate hikes to counter inflation, the ECB may lean toward rate cuts to stimulate the struggling Eurozone economy, amplifying the divergence between U.S. and Eurozone monetary policies. This split in policy direction may lead to a weaker Euro, as the growing interest rate gap makes the currency less attractive to investors. Should U.S. tariffs and inflation continue to rise, you can check how the inflation is shaping the USD on this blog I’ve done: USA CPI to be higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate could drop by as much as 3%, potentially even approaching parity. This scenario is likely to play out if U.S. inflation and interest rates outpace those of the Eurozone, where economic stimulus and a declining interest rate differential might amplify pressure on the Euro.

The widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Eurozone as a central driver for potential shifts in the EUR/USD exchange rate. With U.S. inflation possibly spurring further rate hikes and the Eurozone moving in the opposite direction, this divergence could strengthen the USD relative to the Euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate closer to or even below parity (1:1).

EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies_3

Risk factors and policy timing will play a key role in determining the extent of this movement. Should inflation rise significantly in the U.S. due to increased tariffs, the Federal Reserve may respond with rate hikes to control inflationary pressures. Conversely, if European fiscal policy fails to sufficiently support economic growth, the ECB may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting strategy, intensifying downward pressure on the Euro. Looking further ahead, forthcoming 2025 outlook will incorporate the intricate interplay between these monetary policies and the broader global fiscal response. Although short-term forecasts lean toward a stronger USD, the long-term trajectory may evolve with ongoing policy developments.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

"They [EU countries] don't take our cars. They don't take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price," said Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential candidate, shortly before the election.

Following his victory, the EU is now considering its options to address a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US - a major proposal from Trump's 2024 re-election campaign.

Which EU countries would be most affected by a potential 10% tariff? Which European nations have the largest share of the US in their extra-EU exports? What percentage of each EU country's exports go to the US?

Euronews Business has analysed the potential impact of Trump's proposed tariffs by highlighting the value of goods exported to the US by EU countries.

In 2023, Germany led by a wide margin, exporting €157.7bn in goods to the US according to Eurostat. Italy and Ireland followed, with exports valued at €67.3bn and €51.6bn, respectively.

Together, these three countries make up 55% of the EU's exports to the US.

France exported €43.9bn, the Netherlands €40.5bn, Belgium €31.3bn, and Spain €18.9bn.

Focusing on shares over volume

Analysing the share of the US in extra-EU exports and the share of the US in total goods exports for each EU country would highlight the potential risks for each nation, even for those with smaller overall export volumes.

"Extra-EU" refers to transactions with all countries outside the EU - in other words, trade with the rest of the world, excluding EU member countries.

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?_1

In 2023, Ireland had the highest share of exports to the US among EU countries, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports directed to the US. This means that nearly half of Ireland's exports outside the EU were destined for the US.

In addition, seven other EU countries had proportions of 20% or more, ranging from 20% to 26%. These countries included Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.

Among the EU's top four economies, Spain had the lowest share of exports to the US in its extra-EU exports at 13%, followed by France at 16%.

This proportion was less than 10% in seven EU countries. These are Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, Romania and Greece.

Share of the US in total exports of goods

Ireland is by far the most reliant EU country on exports to the US. In 2023, more than a quarter (26.6%) of all Irish goods exports were directed to the US, according to the Eurostat. This makes Ireland a clear outlier, highlighting the country's significant dependence on the US market.

Finland, Italy and Germany followed, with 11.1%, 10.7% and 9.9% of their total goods exports going to the US, respectively.

Among the EU's top four economies, France's exports to the US accounted for 7.3%, while Spain's stood at 4.8%.

Nordic countries have significant exports to the US

The US also held a significant share in the exports of the Nordic countries. Besides Finland (11.1%), which ranked second, Sweden (8.9%) and Denmark (8.3%) ranked fifth and sixth among EU countries in terms of export share to the US.

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?_2

This proportion was also above 5% in other EU countries, including Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%) and Belgium (6.3%).

In total, the share of the US in exports exceeded 5% in 10 EU countries.

Thus, a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US would have a significant impact not only on Ireland, Germany and Italy but also a number of other countries.

Swedish PM acknowledges possible "severe impact on Swedish exports"

Accepting the potential risks, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that his country has been preparing for various scenarios and developments. "One risk is a trade war between the US and China, along with higher tariffs in general, which could severely impact Swedish export companies," he said, according to Swedish media including Ttela.

Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape

Kenneth Kraszewski, Counsel at Borenius Attorneys, noted in his blog that Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape as the US considers imposing tariffs on European goods. The US is Finland's largest trading partner outside the EU, and "Finnish industries - particularly those in steel, paper, machinery, and technology - could encounter higher barriers to entry into the US market," he wrote.

The US is the top destination for British exports

Among major European countries outside the EU, the US holds a significant share of the UK’s goods exports. According to the ONS, the US accounted for 15.6% of UK exports in 2023, totalling approximately €74bn (£61.5bn).

Source: Euronews

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Economic

Stocks

Market sentiments cools slightly following Trump-induced rally

The new week brought some slight consolidation in Wall Street following a Trump-induced surge, but there seems little in the way to stop the broader upward trend for now. US election uncertainties are clearing, the rising prospects of a ‘Red Wave’ may support easier deregulation passthrough and higher fiscal spending, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on its path for gradual rate cuts, while US economic conditions continue to surprise on the upside. The US economic surprise index is now at its highest level since April this year. Not to mention that year-end seasonality tends to be in favour of taking on risks.

What to expect for the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data?

This week will bring US CPI data in focus. Expectations are for US headline inflation to edge to 2.6%, up from the 2.4% prior. The core aspect is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Month-on-month, headline and core CPI are expected to stay unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

Before the next Fed meeting on 18 December, policymakers will have November job report and two consumer inflation data to digest beforehand. With September core inflation ticking higher to 3.3% (its first uptick since April 2023), another month of uptick above the 3.4% level in the October’s read may likely question how much room the Fed truly have in terms of rate cuts.

Amid ongoing concerns around the inflationary effects that Trump’s policies may bring, any higher-than-expected read in the US CPI could call for some paring in dovish bets, which may offer further boost to the US dollar. Currently, markets are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point (bp) cut in December with a 85% probability, in line with what policymakers have previously guided for, hence any signs of persistence in pricing pressures may likely call for some recalibration.

S&P 500: Clearing of US election risks triggers risk-on mood

The clearing of US election risks helped to fuel a risk-on mood in Wall Street, as market positioning rushes to mirror the Trump trade seen in 2016, which means being long on financials, technology, energy and particularly, small caps as the beneficiaries for Trump’s “made in America” agenda. The S&P 500 punched to a new record high, with a broad rising channel pattern in place.

Sentiment indicators do not seem to scream for overextended levels just yet, looking at the AAII bull-bear spread, NAAIM exposure index and CNN Fear & Greed index. Ahead, the 6,168 level may be on watch next, where the upper channel trendline resistance stands, while immediate support may be at the 5,873 level.

Levels:

R2: 6,168;

R1: 6,000.

S1: 5,873;

S2: 5,674.

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_1

Sector performance

A risk-on environment fuelled by Trump 2.0 prospects has seen broad-based gains across all S&P 500 sectors last week, with the broader index up 5.1%. The consumer discretionary sector (+12.1%) was the outperformer, with Tesla’s 44% weekly gain offering much of the boost, alongside Amazon’s 5.7%. Financials (+7.8%) registered strong outperformance as well, with a less dovish Fed’s rate outlook from Trump 2.0 directly supporting room for net interest margin expansion ahead. Trump’s focus on “Made in America” onshoring and likelihood of strong infrastructure spending with a potential ‘Red Wave’ has given industrials a strong boost too, with the sector gaining 6.9%. All Magnificent Seven stocks closed higher for the week. Apart from Tesla’s 44% surge, Nvidia was up 6.8% to touch a new record high, while Alphabet was up 6.6%. S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_2

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_2

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_3

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_4

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI_5

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FxPro

Economic

Market Picture

The total capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market approached $3 trillion, rewriting the record set almost exactly three years ago. During the day, the indicator grew by more than 8%. The nature of the movement indicates the liquidation of short positions in the largest coins, primarily bitcoin. At the same time, individual altcoins are increasingly shooting up.

The first cryptocurrency soared almost 10% in 24 hours, coming close to $90K, although only a little over a day ago, it tried to consolidate at $80K. Reaching the $100-110K target area now looks like a matter of a couple of weeks or even days.

Dogecoin is even more actively destroying sceptics with open positions. In 24 hours, it soared 44% to $0.4. It traded sustainably higher for only 15 days in May 2021. This area was pivotal in April and June that year, so it’s worth paying extra attention to it this time around as well.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global crypto fund investments rose by $1.978bn last week after inflows of $2.177bn previously. The positive trend continued for the fifth consecutive week. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $1.796bn, Ethereum by $157m, and Solana by $4m. Investments in funds with multiple crypto assets increased by $23m.

Inflows into crypto-ETFs since the beginning of the year reached $31.3bn. Due to price growth, global assets under management reached a new all-time high of $116bn. Trading volumes rose to their highest level since April. The combination of a favourable macroeconomic environment (Fed rate cuts) and seismic shifts in the US political system (after Trump’s victory) are likely reasons for such favourable investor sentiment, CoinShares suggests.

According to founder Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy bought an additional 27,200 BTC between 31 October and 10 November for $2.03 billion (at ~$74,463 per coin). The firm now holds 279,420 BTC, acquired for $11.9bn at an average exchange rate of $42,692.

MN Consultancy head Michael van de Poppe said that the much-anticipated altcoin season has begun in the background of Bitcoin’s new all-time highs. He described Ethereum’s rise in recent days as impressive. The altcoin bull cycle could last until 2026 or 2027 and transform into a full-blown Supercycle.

In the past few days, the bankrupt FTX has filed 23 lawsuits against various companies and individuals to recover funds from creditors. In the lawsuit against Binance, FTX’s lawyers are demanding the return of $1.8bn paid as part of a share buyback in 2021.

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JPMorgan

Economic

Progress on disinflation and recent employment data supported the decision to move toward a more neutral policy stance, although possible robust incoming economic data or fiscal policy shifts could decelerate the pace of future cuts.

The statement language was tweaked but remained largely consistent in messaging:

“Job gains have slowed” was changed to “Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased” likely in reference to oscillating monthly payroll figures and declining job openings.The word “further” was removed in the line “Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective” as disinflationary progress has somewhat plateaued above 2% with the latest CPI report coming in slightly above expectations.The phrase “has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” was also removed, an omission that Powell justified since this “confidence” was a condition required to commence an easing cycle that has now begun.Finally, the phrase “In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks” became a pithier “In support of its goals” likely reducing the emphasis on inflation alone as labor market data comes to the fore.

In the press conference, Chair Powell tried to evade political questions and redirect prognosticating on the December rate decision. Powell did not want to comment on the contribution of the fiscal backdrop to the recent rise in yields, but he did note that while the election has no near-term impact on monetary policy decisions, fiscal policy shifts could be factored in over time.

Looking ahead to December, Powell also commented that now is not an appropriate time for forward guidance given the high level of uncertainty. Markets are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate cut in December, although forthcoming inflation and labor market data will be the key determinants. Beyond December, the Committee could be put in an increasingly difficult position if possible future tariff and tax policies reignite inflationary pressures. However, Powell noted that the Committee is prepared to adjust the pace and destination of future cuts.

In response to the rate decision, 10-year Treasury yields continued to slide while equities rallied. As the dust settles on the election, investors ought to focus not on policy uncertainty but rather economic realities: disinflation, above-trend growth, a healthy labor market, and solid earnings growth, all of which should be supportive for equities. Fed cuts should translate to falling yields, but the recent rise in yields provides attractive income and presents a compelling entry point for bonds. How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?_1

How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?_1

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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SAXO

Economic

Macro:

Norway Oct. CPI out yesterday at +0.2% MoM and +2.7% YoY, slightly lower than the +0.3%/2.7% expected, with headline inflation slightly hotter at +0.6%/+2.6% vs. +0.5%/+2.4% expected.

Australia’s Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence rose strongly to 94.6 vs. 89.8 prior, this was the highest reading for the survey since early 2022.

UK Sep. ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% vs. 4.1% expected and 4.0% in Aug. and the Sep. Employment Change (3M/3M) rose 220k vs. 287k expected. UK Oct. Jobless Claims rose 26.7k vs. +10.1k in Sep, while Oct. Payrolls fell -5k vs. -20k expected.

Equities

US - The S&P 500 surpassed 6,000 for the first time, marking a milestone as Trump-related optimism continues to lift markets. Tesla rose 9% on ongoing bullish momentum, while Coinbase surged 19.7% in line with strong crypto market moves. Grab Holdings gained 11.8% post-market after Q3 earnings beat estimates and an upward revision of its 2024 revenue forecast.

Asia - Hong Kong’s HSI declined 1.45%, nearing a three-week low, as China’s debt relief plan lacked direct fiscal stimulus. Market sentiment weakened amid rising US-China tensions, while inflation in China fell to a four-month low. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 inched up 0.08% as the BoJ’s meeting summary hinted at internal debate on rate hikes, though a gradual rise to 1% is anticipated by fiscal 2025.

Europe - European equities rebounded, with Germany’s DAX up 1.2% after recent losses, as investors assessed the potential impacts of Trump’s policies. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on Germany’s political landscape as Chancellor Scholz may face a confidence vote. Gains were led by luxury and tech sectors, while BBVA rose 4.2% amid merger speculation with Sabadell.

Volatility

Volatility eased further, with the VIX dropping below 15 and short-term volatility (VIX1D) now under 10, reflecting reduced risk expectations post-election and rate cut. VVIX sits around 90, and SKEW has declined, showing a drop in tail risk premiums. VIX futures are also signaling a continued decline in volatility. Options markets reflect increased interest in crypto-linked equities as Bitcoin rallies, while the overall put/call ratio in equities at 0.747 indicates more call activity as investors lean towards bullish bets.

Fixed Income

German sovereigns saw a bull steepening in the yield curve as traders lowered expectations for the ECB’s terminal rate, driven by concerns over German growth if debt plans face opposition. Italian bonds outperformed on increased risk appetite. Gilts rose modestly, underperforming Bunds. The U.S. market was closed Monday, but the 10-year Treasury yield rose up to three basis points to 4.34% in the Asian session. This week, investors will focus on U.S. inflation, retail sales, industrial production, and Federal Reserve speeches, particularly from Chair Powell. In Europe, key events include UK employment data, ECB minutes, EU Commission forecasts, and a speech by BOE Governor Bailey.

Commodities

Gold was punished for steep losses yesterday and is pushing near an important prior low area near 2,600 as the appeal of this safe haven as faded relative to more speculative assets post-US election. Silver has traded within a percent of the 30 dollar/ounce level. Elsewhere, oil prices slumped, with WTI crude below 68 dollars a barrel this morning and Brent sub-72. The 70 dollars per barrel area in Brent is a multi-year low stretching back to 2021.

Currencies

The USD remains strong but more selectively so, with the euro and sterling weak against the greenback since yesterday.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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ING

Economic

Forex

USD: Don't fight the trend

US equity markets continue to plough ahead. There is an emerging narrative that unlike in 2016, when Donald Trump was unprepared for office, this time around he plans to hit the ground running in January. To some degree that supports the extension of the Trump trades right now and tends to subdue the investment thesis that it will take his administration a year to deliver any major initiatives – as was the case in 2017.

The above is reflected in the FX options market. Traded levels of volatility fell sharply last Wednesday after it quickly became clear that the Republicans would win big. The idea here was that the major event risk was out of the way – and perhaps the market would sit around waiting for the next big trend. But what we have seen so far this week are early signs of active engagement in a new dollar bull trend. Traded levels of volatility are rising notably as it seems the market is actively positioning (investors) or hedging (corporate treasurers) in expectation of a stronger dollar. All we would say here is not to fight this emerging trend.

Today we will see the October update of the NFIB small business optimism index. This is expected to remain off early-year lows and presumably could pick up over coming months on the Republican win and what it means for corporate taxes. And at 1600CET we have a speech from the Fed's Christopher Waller. Presumably, he will follow Chair Jerome Powell's lead from last week and not get drawn into questions about how the Fed will react to Trump's proposed agenda.

DXY has some resistance here at 105.70, but the highs of the year near 106.50 are very much in focus.

EUR: 'Atlantic spread' moves wider still

The 'Atlantic' spread as some traders call it has widened even further. Two-year EUR:USD swap differentials have now widened beyond 180bp in favour of the dollar. We haven't seen this kind of level since 2022, when EUR/USD was trading close to parity. Admittedly those parity levels in 2022 were partly caused by the surge in energy prices and the terms of trade impact on the euro – a negative factor that is not present today. Still.

EUR/USD looks ready to test 1.0600, below which our end-year target at 1.05 beckons. As above, one month implied EUR/USD volatility is being brought back up towards 8% having been offered near 6.50% last week. The only events of note on the European calendar today are ECB speakers (Olli Rehn and Robert Holzmann), who will probably not stand in the way of an ECB rate cut in December. The question is, will it be 25bp or 50bp? The market prices 30bp. Our eurozone team think it will be 50bp.

GBP: Focus on Huw Pill speech

Today's September release of UK earnings data has come in slightly stronger than expected and it looks like the downward momentum in private sector pay has started to slow. However, this data set has fallen out of favour with the Bank of England (and hence the market).

More interesting today should be a 10CET panel appearance today from Chief Economist Huw Pill. The subject of the panel is: 'Reversing the great global tightening – how far and how fast?' Pill dissented from the BoE decision to cut rates in August and is therefore seen more as a centre/hawk on the MPC. The market is already pricing in only a modest BoE easing cycle from here – just three rate cuts next year. And unless there is a major surprise from Pill today, that pricing can stay intact. If so, EUR/GBP will struggle to sustain a move over 0.8300/8315 now and should continue to head lower.

CEE: Romania and Hungary complete the inflation picture

After yesterday's inflation number in the Czech Republic came in line with central bank expectations, this morning we received the numbers in Romania and Hungary for October. This completes the picture in the CEE region. In Romania, headline inflation rose slightly and was marginally above market expectations. Yesterday's presentation of the National Bank of Romania inflation report showed a hawkish stance by central bankers and essentially a wait-and-see approach due to the November elections, an unclear fiscal picture, and a higher inflation projection.

In Hungary, headline inflation rose from 3.0% to 3.2% YoY, below market expectations and two-tenths below the National Bank of Hungary forecast (3.4%). However, the main variable at the moment is EUR/HUF, which yesterday moved above 410 after two days of post-election relief. Thus, the central bank will remain on the hawkish side regardless of inflation. If EUR/HUF continues to move higher, the market will increase bets on additional National Bank of Hungary (NBH) measures in the form of liquidity tightening or an eventual rate hike. We believe the NBH is more resilient than in the past, but levels above 410 will raise questions of a policy response again and it will be hard to reverse course in the current negative conditions for CEE, as we discussed yesterday. We expect more pressure on the region in the days ahead.

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EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Potential for Further Decline Amid Diverging Policies

USD Outlook: The Role of Domestic Policies and Global Trade Dynamics

EUR Outlook: Economic Pressures and Policy Challenges for the Euro

Which European Countries Rely Most on Exports to the US?

Focusing on shares over volume

Share of the US in total exports of goods

Nordic countries have significant exports to the US

Swedish PM acknowledges possible "severe impact on Swedish exports"

Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape

The US is the top destination for British exports

Source: Euronews

S&P 500 Weekly Report: What to Expect for US CPI

Market sentiments cools slightly following Trump-induced rally

What to expect for the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data?

S&P 500: Clearing of US election risks triggers risk-on mood

Levels:

Sector performance

Crypto Punishes Sceptics

Market Picture

News Background

How Will the Fed Respond to Fiscal Policy in Future Rate Decisions?

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 12 November 2024

Macro:

Equities

Volatility

Fixed Income

Commodities

Currencies

FX Daily: Options Market Suggests Active Engagement In Dollar Rally

USD: Don't fight the trend

EUR: 'Atlantic spread' moves wider still

GBP: Focus on Huw Pill speech

CEE: Romania and Hungary complete the inflation picture

Risk Disclosure