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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6827.42
6827.42
6827.42
6899.86
6801.80
-73.58
-1.07%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48458.04
48458.04
48458.04
48886.86
48334.10
-245.98
-0.51%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23195.16
23195.16
23195.16
23554.89
23094.51
-398.69
-1.69%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.970
98.050
97.970
98.070
97.920
+0.020
+ 0.02%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17328
1.17335
1.17328
1.17447
1.17283
-0.00066
-0.06%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33643
1.33650
1.33643
1.33740
1.33546
-0.00064
-0.05%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4342.83
4343.24
4342.83
4347.21
4294.68
+43.44
+ 1.01%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
57.507
57.544
57.507
57.601
57.194
+0.274
+ 0.48%
--

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Share

Stats Office - Botswana November Consumer Inflation At 0.0% Month-On-Month

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Stats Office - Botswana November Consumer Inflation At 3.8% Year-On-Year

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Statistics Bureau - Kazakhstan's Jan-Nov Industrial Output +7.4% Year-On-Year

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Fca: Sets Out Plans To Help Build Mortgage Market Of Future

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Eurostoxx 50 Futures Up 0.38%, DAX Futures Up 0.43%, FTSE Futures Up 0.37%

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[Delivery Of New US Presidential Aircraft Delayed Again] According To The Latest Timeline Released By The US Air Force, The Delivery Of The First Of The Two Newly Commissioned Air Force One Presidential Aircraft Will Not Be Earlier Than 2028. This Means That The Delivery Of The New Air Force One Has Been Delayed Once Again

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German Nov Wholesale Prices +0.3% Month-On-Month

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Norway's Nov Trade Balance Nok 41.3 Billion - Statistics Norway

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German Nov Wholesale Prices +1.5% Year-On-Year

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Romania's Adjusted Industrial Production +0.4% Month-On-Month In October, +0.2% Year-On-Year - Statistics Board

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Russia Says It Destroyed 130 Ukrainian Drones Overnight, Some Moscow Airports Disrupted

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EU Commissioner Kos: This Is No Time To Speculate On Timeframe For Ukraine's Accession To EU

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Lithuania Foreign Minister: Ukraine Needs Article 5-Alike Security Guarantees, With Nuclear Deterrent

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Russia's Central Bank Says It Seeks 18.2 Trillion Roubles In Damages From Euroclear

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Lithuania's Foreign Minister Says Expects EU Today To Broaden Belarus Sanctions Regime To Include Hybrid Activity

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India's Nifty 50 Index Pares Losses, Last Down 0.1%

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EU's Kallas: Important To Have Belgium On Board For Reparations Loan

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EU's Kallas: Work On Reparations Loan For Ukraine "Increasingly Difficult" But Still Have Some Days To Reach Agreement

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EU's Kallas: If Russian Agression Is Rewarded, We Will See More Of It

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India's Sept WPI Inflation Revised To 0.19% Year-On-Year

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          Gold Monthly: Gold’s Rally Is Just Getting Started

          ING

          Commodity

          Summary:

          We believe the most anticipated US rate cut in decades will bring fresh impetus to gold prices. We have revised our gold forecast higher, and we now expect prices to average $2,700 in 2025.

          Gold has been one of the best performers among major commodities this year. It has surged more than 20% year-to-date, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, strong central bank buying and robust Asian purchases. Haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks as well as uncertainty ahead of the US election in November have also supported gold’s record-breaking rally this year.

          Fed pivot will boost gold

          At the recent Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates on 18 September, stating that "the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear."

          Gold prices have gained after Powell affirmed expectations the US central bank will soon start cutting interest rates. Lower borrowing costs are positive for gold as it doesn’t pay interest. The Fed has held its key policy rate in a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% – the highest level in more than two decades – since last July.

          The question for the gold market now is the pace at which the Fed will ease its policy.

          The latest US jobs data report was mixed, adding to the ongoing debate over how deeply the Fed is going to cut interest rates at its September meeting. Our US economist believes the central bank will opt for a 50bp move, but it’s a close call.

          Gold sets a new record as Fed prepares to cut rates

          Source: Refinitiv, ING Research

          ETF flows turn positive after years of outflows

          Source: WGC, ING Research

          ETF inflows continue

          Demand for gold-backed ETFs has also seen a revival. Global gold ETFs saw inflows four months in a row with all regions recording positive flows and Western funds leading the way in August.

          Investor holdings in gold ETFs generally rise when gold prices gain, and vice versa. However, gold ETF holdings have been in decline for much of 2024, while spot gold prices have hit new highs. ETF flows finally turned positive in May.

          COMEX futures net long rise further

          Source: Commodities Futures Trading Commission, ING Research

          COMEX total net longs also continued to rise, seeing a 17% month-on-month rise by the end of August, and the highest month-end level since February 2020.

          Central bank gold demand picks up in July

          Central bank gold demand strengthened in July despite price rises. Reported net purchases by central banks more than doubled to 37 tonnes in July, as data from the World Gold Council shows. This represents a 206% month-on-month increase and the highest monthly total since January when central bank purchases totalled 45 tonnes.

          The National Bank of Poland was the leading buyer in the month, followed by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the Reserve Bank of India.

          In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold – the second-highest annual purchase in history – following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2022. Looking ahead, we expect central bank demand to remain strong amid the current economic climate and geopolitical tensions.

          Central banks keep adding gold

          Source: WGC, ING Research

          US rate cuts will drive gold to new highs

          We believe that the long-awaited Fed rate cut will drive gold to new highs. The US presidential election in November will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year, in our view.

          Geopolitics will also remain one of the key factors driving gold prices. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which should offer support.

          We now see gold averaging $2,580 in the fourth quarter, resulting in an annual average of $2,388. Gold’s upward momentum will continue next year with 2025 prices averaging $2,700.

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          API Sounds Alarm On Gulf Oil Production Amid Endangered Species Regulation

          Alex

          Commodity

          Energy

          Oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico could suffer a decline unless the federal government confirms its deadline for the revision of a law regulating endangered species protection.

          Without it, the regulatory process to ensure oil and gas operations are carried out in accordance with the Endangered Species Act would become a lot more cumbersome and complicated, potentially affecting production.

          The revision was prompted by a court ruling last month in a case brought against the federal government by climate activists. They claimed the current endangered species risk assessment regulation for oil and gas operations, commonly known as the biological opinion, was inadequate and a new one was needed. The judge agreed and ruled that the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service had until December 20 to update the regulation.

          Now, the American Petroleum Institute is warning that if the service takes longer than that, it would disrupt oil and gas operations, for which the biological opinion is mandatory.

          “With the Gulf of Mexico producing 15% of our country’s oil supply, halting production would have serious, far-reaching consequences to our economy and energy security,” the API said in a post on X.

          In addition to producing 15% of U.S. oil, the Gulf of Mexico also employs more than 400,000 people and generates over $6 billion in federal revenue, the API also said, as quoted by Reuters.

          This is not the first time that the industry association has sounded the alarm about the federal government’s biological opinion. Last week, API senior vice president Dustin Meyer said “The ramifications could be potentially enormous for operations in what we and many others recognize is such a vital, producing region,” adding that “The level of concern is very high,” as quoted by Bloomberg.

          Bloomberg noted in that report from last week that the Marine Fisheries Service had already started work on an update on the biological opinion but had said during court proceedings it would not be able to complete it “until late winter or early spring 2025.”

          Source: OILPRICE

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Steepest Deterioration in Trade Conditions Since December 2023

          S&P Global Inc.

          Economic

          The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders Index, sponsored by JPMorgan and compiled by S&P Global, posted 48.9 in August, down from 49.6 in July. The latest reading signalled that trade conditions deteriorated for a third successive month and at the fastest pace in eight months.
          Excluding improvements in April and May, export orders have fallen continuously since March 2022. While some of the recent trade decline has been linked to disruptions to the supply chains, August data suggest that we are also seeing a deepening of the manufacturing downturn underscored by worsening demand conditions and destocking.

          Trade downturn remains manufacturing driven as services exports continue to grow

          Manufacturing new export orders fell at the fastest pace in the year-to-date in August. In line with the trend in July, where worsening lead times impacted global supply chains and exports, shipping delays were again observed via the Supplier's Delivery Times Index. The pace at which lead times lengthened eased on a global scale in the latest survey period owing to better vendor performance among developed economies, but emerging markets, which are key sources of goods production, broadly indicated that delivery times extended at a more pronounced pace in August. The August PMI data also revealed that renewed destocking by manufacturers affected demand for goods worldwide. Instances in which companies reported lowering their purchasing of inputs increased noticeably, with cost considerations being a key factor. The extension of supply issues, joined by the intensifying of reduction in purchases altogether unpinned the latest downturn in global trade flows.
          In contrast, service sector export business further expanded in August, extending the period of expansion that commenced at the start of the year. Moreover, the rate of growth rose for the first time in four months, albeit only slightly.
          More detailed sector PMI data further outlined a widening sectoral divergence, with the top four sectors that led the expansion in export business all being service sectors. They are namely the transport, industrial services, non-bank ('other') financials and software services. In contrast, manufacturing sectors mainly ranked towards the bottom, though the worst performers in August also included a services sector - real estate.

          Emerging market exports stall while developed market exports decline at an accelerated pace

          Developed markets continued to lead the downturn in exports in August with the rate of decline accelerating to the fastest since last December. This also extended the period of developed world export contraction that commenced mid-2022. That said, the reduction in exports was limited to the manufacturing sector as service export business rose for the first time since April and at the most pronounced pace in seven months.
          Meanwhile emerging markets exports near-stalled in August, falling fractionally for the first time since last December. This was underpinned by a deceleration in services export business growth to the slowest in the current seven-month sequence and a renewed decline in manufacturing exports. The decline in manufacturing exports, the first in the year-to-date, is a notable development given that most manufacturing hubs reside in emerging economies, thereby highlighting that trade conditions have deteriorated at the source.

          India leads export growth at slower pace in August

          While August's manufacturing PMI data showed that goods trade slowed in both developed and emerging markets, pockets of improvement remained, with four of the top 10 trading economies recording higher goods export orders in August. India retained the lead, but recorded a slower rate of growth in line with the wider manufacturing sector picture for India. Growth in goods export orders was also observed in Russia, South Korea and Brazil, with the latter two seeing only marginal increases in goods orders from abroad.
          On the other hand, the EU and Canada remained the worst performers among the top 10 trading economies, with the rates of export decline being especially sharp for the EU. The US, UK and Japan meanwhile recorded more pronounced, though still modest rates of reduction in goods export orders in August.
          Finally, mainland China's goods exports fell for the first time in 2024, marking a turn in manufacturing conditions more generally going into the second half of the year. Hopes persist that easing interest rates, especially in developed markets, may help to spur global goods trade into the end of 2024, though questions remain over how much interest rates may be lowered. The extent to which demand in the manufacturing sector can be stimulated by these projected monetary policy moves will be studied closely in upcoming PMI data.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Platinum Set For Record Deficit But Prices Yet To Recover

          Cohen

          Commodity

          The platinum market is expected to see its biggest annual deficit in at least a decade but prices have so far been slow to react, according to an industry report.

          A sharp rise in holdings by exchange-traded funds and strong growth in Chinese demand for large bars is forecast to help create a shortfall of more than 1 million ounces in 2024, according to a quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council. That comes after a deficit of 731,000 ounces last year.

          “Even with deficits of this magnitude, the platinum price appears unresponsive,” said WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond. However, sentiment is shifting toward higher-for-longer automotive demand, which should help platinum’s strong underlying fundamentals play “a more prominent role”, he added.

          Platinum has dropped about 30% from a peak in early 2021, while sister metals palladium and rhodium have posted much steeper drops amid uncertainty over demand from the auto industry, which uses the metals to curb emissions from diesel and gasoline vehicles. That’s dented the profitability of some higher-cost operations in South Africa, the biggest producer of platinum.

          Holdings in platinum ETFs surged by 444,000 ounces during the April-June period — the highest quarterly inflow since 2020 — thanks to the precious metal’s relative underperformance versus gold and strengthening fundamentals, the report said. Full-year gains are forecast to moderate to just 150,000 ounces, it said.

          Total platinum demand is forecast to rise to 8.12 million ounces in 2024, also helped by a 7% gain from the jewellery sector. Overall industrial and automotive demand, which make up the bulk of the market, are both expected to nudge higher.

          Meanwhile, total mined supply is forecast to fall 2% to 5.51 million ounces in 2024, as operations in South Africa are restructured and refined production declines in Russia, WPIC said. Above-ground platinum stockpiles are expected to dwindle by 25% to about three million ounces.

          “With the marked slowdown in the growth of battery electric vehicle market penetration rates and the normalisation of palladium and rhodium prices, underlying fundamentals are expected to return to being the major platinum price setting factor going forwards,” said Edward Sterck, director of research at the WPIC.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Blackstone Sells Second Commercial Mortgage Bond to Fund Buyout

          Cohen

          Blackstone Inc. is selling $1.05 billion of commercial mortgage bonds to help pay for a deal it struck in April to acquire AIR Communities, an apartment landlord.

          The debt consists of six tranches of securities, with ratings ranging from AAA to BB-, according to people familiar with the matter. An interest-only loan backing the CMBS bonds will carry a floating rate, the people said.

          The bonds add to an earlier $2.95 billion of CMBS that Blackstone sold in July which were also backed by AIR Communities properties.

          A representative for Blackstone declined to comment.

          Blackstone struck a deal in April to buy Apartment Income REIT, known as AIR Communities, for $10 billion. It said at the time that it would invest more than $400 million to maintain and bolster the company’s portfolio of apartment buildings.

          Issuance of CMBS has been torrid recently, with overall sales this year through Monday of $69.7 billion. Spreads on the debt are wider today than they were at the start of the year, but are still below levels from much of last year when concerns over the credit quality of commercial real estate were widespread.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          What Are Your Options: Fall 2024: Strategic Guidelines for Volatile Markets

          SAXO

          Economic

          What are your options: Fall 2024: Strategic guidelines for volatile markets

          As we move into the fall of 2024, financial markets have shifted from a nearly year-long bullish trend into a more volatile and unpredictable phase. The sharp correction in mid-July, followed by a spike in volatility in early August, has left investors and traders grappling with heightened uncertainty. Historical patterns, as seen in the attached VIX seasonality chart, show that volatility typically rises during the second half of the year—especially in U.S. election years—and 2024 is no exception. The VIX and other volatility indicators, such as VXN (tech sector volatility), OVX (oil), and VXTLT (bonds), have all been on the rise, with individual stock and commodity volatilities following suit.
          The purpose of this article is to provide strategic guidelines for traders and investors navigating this volatile market environment. Whether you are looking to hedge your portfolio, generate income, or take advantage of potential price swings, adapting your approach to reflect current market conditions is essential. These guidelines are designed to help you assess and manage risk, and identify opportunities within both premium-selling and premium-buying strategies. The key is to recognize that volatility presents both risks and opportunities, and the right approach will depend on your goals, market outlook, and experience.
          However, it's crucial to recognize that the rest of this article is based on the market conditions as they are right now. The financial markets are inherently unpredictable—volatility might increase further, or it could drop to historically low levels. We've seen time and again that market sentiment can change quickly and in ways that defy forecasts. Given this unpredictability, the strategies outlined in this article are designed to prepare you for the possibility that volatility remains elevated in the short to medium term.
          It’s also important to stress that the strategies listed below assume you have adequate knowledge and experience to use them. Options trading carries risks, and it is essential to fully understand the mechanics and risks involved before putting these strategies into practice. If you’re unfamiliar with any of the concepts discussed, further education and due diligence are absolutely necessary before considering the use of these tools. Always do your research and ensure that you understand the potential risks and rewards of any trading strategy.
          That said, in light of the current high-volatility environment, the following guidelines can help you better navigate and potentially profit from the unpredictable market conditions—if volatility persists into the near future.
          What Are Your Options: Fall 2024: Strategic Guidelines for Volatile Markets_1

          Premium selling strategies: benefit from high volatility

          When volatility increases, so do the premiums on options. As a result, premium-selling strategies become particularly attractive. Selling options allows you to capture this increased premium, as time decay works in your favor, and you profit if the underlying asset doesn’t move significantly in either direction.

          What to focus on:

          •Covered calls: If you hold stocks that you don’t mind parting with at a higher price, covered calls are a great way to generate income from the elevated option premiums.
          •Iron condors and credit spreads: These strategies let you capitalize on the high premiums while limiting your risk. Since volatility is high, expanding the strike prices in your spreads can give you more room for the inevitable market swings.
          •Risk reversals: In volatile markets, risk reversals can allow traders to position themselves for directional moves while generating premium. A typical risk reversal involves selling a put and buying a call (or vice versa), effectively betting on directional movement while offsetting the cost of the long option with the premium received from the short option.

          Why it works:

          •High volatility means option prices are elevated, allowing you to sell premium at more favorable rates.Time decay (theta) works in your favor as an option seller, particularly when the market consolidates or moves less than expected.
          •Risk reversals allow you to position for directional moves at a lower cost by using the premium collected from selling the put (or call) to offset the cost of the call (or put), especially in high-volatility scenarios.

          How to execute:

          •Widen your strikes: Give yourself more room for the market to fluctuate. With heightened volatility, spreads with wider strike prices allow more flexibility.
          •Shorter expirations: Higher volatility tends to compress time decay, so selling options with shorter expirations can help capture premium while limiting your exposure to prolonged market uncertainty.
          •Construct risk reversals strategically: If you're bullish on an underlying, consider selling an out-of-the-money put and buying an out-of-the-money call to capture directional moves without paying full premium for the call. Conversely, use the reverse structure in bearish scenarios.

          Risks to consider:

          •Volatility spikes: While selling options benefits from high volatility, further spikes in volatility can increase your risk, especially if you're short naked options. This can lead to significant losses.
          •Sudden market moves: Selling options can leave you exposed if the market moves sharply in one direction. Widening your strikes reduces some risk, but rapid price changes can still result in losses.
          •Unlimited risk on naked options: Selling naked calls or puts exposes you to potentially unlimited losses. If the underlying asset moves significantly, you may face substantial losses. Spreads and structured strategies like risk reversals can help mitigate this risk.

          Premium buying strategies: capitalize on big moves—with care

          While selling premium can seem like the more obvious play in a high-volatility market, buying options remains a viable strategy—especially if you're expecting a strong directional move. However, with options trading at higher prices due to increased implied volatility (IV), you need to be more selective and strategic to make option buying work in your favor.

          What to focus on:

          •Longer-dated options: Buying options with longer expiration dates helps mitigate the effects of time decay and gives your position more time to reach its profit target.
          •Directional plays on strong catalysts: Be selective about the underlyings you choose. Focus on assets where you expect clear and strong directional moves, such as stocks with upcoming earnings, major market events, or those showing strong technical signals.

          Why it works:

          •In a volatile market, big directional moves can still happen. If you anticipate these moves and time your entry well, option buying can yield substantial returns.
          •Buying longer-dated options reduces your exposure to theta-decay, allowing you to hold positions longer without losing significant value due to the passage of time.

          How to execute:

          •Look for lower IV on entry: High IV means expensive options, so try to enter your long positions when implied volatility is slightly lower—after a brief pullback or consolidation.
          •Spread strategies to offset costs: Consider debit spreads or diagonal spreads to reduce the upfront cost of buying options. Spreads help balance the impact of time decay and can make your long positions more affordable while still offering upside potential.

          Risks to consider:

          •Time decay (theta): As a buyer, time decay works against you. If the underlying asset doesn’t move quickly enough, you could lose money simply due to the passage of time. Longer-dated options can help mitigate this risk but won’t eliminate it entirely.
          •Volatility drop (vega): If implied volatility falls after you enter the trade, the value of your option could decrease, even if the underlying asset moves in your favor. This is particularly important when buying options in a high-volatility environment.
          •Directional risk: Buying options requires the underlying asset to move significantly in your favor for the trade to be profitable. If the expected move doesn’t occur, the option could expire worthless, resulting in a full loss of the premium paid.

          Adapting to theta and vega in a volatile market

          Whether you are buying or selling options, it’s crucial to understand how market volatility affects the Greeks, particularly theta (time decay) and vega (volatility sensitivity).
          •Theta: As an option buyer, time decay will erode your position’s value if the underlying asset doesn’t move fast enough. This makes it critical to time your entry and consider longer-dated options. For sellers, theta is your friend—time decay works in your favor, especially with near-term options.
          •Vega: Rising volatility increases the value of options, benefiting buyers if IV rises after you’ve entered the trade. However, sellers need to account for the risk of further volatility increases, which can inflate option values.

          How to navigate:

          •Monitor vega: Option buyers can benefit if volatility spikes after entering, but sellers need to be cautious about volatility increases.
          •Mind theta: Buyers should focus on longer-term options to minimize the impact of time decay, while sellers can take advantage of near-term opportunities.

          Balance your portfolio with market-neutral strategies

          Given the unpredictable market conditions, where a strong directional bias could lead to unwanted losses, incorporating market-neutral strategies can help you profit from volatility without taking on excessive risk.

          Strategies to consider:

          •Buying straddles and strangles: If you expect large moves but aren’t certain of the direction, buying straddles or strangles can allow you to profit from volatility regardless of which way the price moves. A straddle involves buying both a call and a put at the same strike price, while a strangle involves buying a call and a put with different strike prices. These strategies are more suitable when you expect significant volatility and price movement.
          •Selling straddles and strangles: If you expect the market to stay within a specific range or for volatility to decrease, selling straddles and strangles can be more suited to a market-neutral approach. Here, you profit from the premiums collected as long as the underlying asset doesn’t make large moves in either direction. This is especially attractive when implied volatility is high, and you don’t expect extreme price movement.
          •Iron butterflies: These can help capture premium in a market that you expect to stay within a certain range, while also limiting risk on both sides. This strategy benefits from the elevated premiums in the options market and works well when you expect minimal movement.

          Risks to consider:

          •Directional moves: Even with market-neutral strategies, significant directional moves can result in losses. Buying straddles and strangles require large price swings to be profitable, and if the market consolidates instead, you may lose money due to time decay. Selling straddles and strangles, on the other hand, exposes you to potentially unlimited losses if the underlying moves dramatically in either direction.
          •Increased costs: Market-neutral strategies often involve buying or selling multiple options, which can increase transaction costs. These costs can eat into your potential profits, especially if the market doesn’t move as expected.

          Be selective with underlyings

          This is true for both premium sellers and premium buyers. Given the elevated implied volatility across many sectors, it’s essential to be selective about the assets you trade. Not every stock or commodity will move dramatically, and volatility across sectors can vary.

          How to execute:

          •Focus on strong catalysts: Whether it’s earnings, geopolitical events, or major economic reports, choose underlyings where you expect clear and impactful price movement.
          •Diversify across asset classes: With volatility affecting more than just stocks, consider options on commodities, bonds, or sectors that have their own volatility profiles (such as energy or tech).

          Risks to consider:

          •Misjudging catalysts: Even if an asset has strong catalysts, market sentiment can shift unexpectedly, and the anticipated move may not happen. This can result in losses, particularly for buyers who rely on a significant directional move.
          •Sector-specific volatility: Some sectors may experience higher volatility than others, which could lead to over- or underestimation of market risk. It’s important to tailor your strategy to the asset’s volatility profile.

          Conclusion: a balanced approach to volatility

          Fall 2024 presents a complex but opportunistic market environment. With volatility rising, both premium-selling and premium-buying strategies offer paths to success—but only if carefully adapted to current conditions. Selling options allows traders to capitalize on elevated premiums and time decay, but option buying remains a viable approach when paired with selective timing, longer time frames, and proper risk management.
          By combining thoughtful timing, selective underlying choices, and the appropriate mix of buying and selling strategies—while keeping a close eye on the risks—traders and investors alike can navigate the volatility ahead and position themselves for potential gains, regardless of the market's direction.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          The Upcoming Rate Cut: 5 Things Homebuyers Should Consider

          NAR

          Economic

          Commodity

          The Federal Reserve has kept its interest rates unchanged for over a year. However, this is expected to change in the coming week. The economy has consistently indicated that it may no longer need the cooling effects of high interest rates. Inflation has dropped below 3%, while job creation has slowed to about 30% below the average pace seen over the past 12 months. Thus, the Fed is strongly considering an interest rate cut at its meeting in mid-September.
          The Fed's interest rate decisions have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy, particularly the housing market. Homebuyers closely watch to understand how such a change might affect mortgage rates, home prices, and overall housing demand. Below, let's explore the potential effects of the expected Fed rate cut on the housing market, focusing on how these actions may impact mortgage rates and housing affordability.

          Understanding the Fed's rate and its link to the housing market

          First, it’s important to note that the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. Instead, it controls the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to one another. However, this rate has a ripple effect across the economy, influencing various other interest rates, including those on savings accounts, loans, and mortgages. When the Fed adjusts its rate, it triggers changes across the broader lending system.
          The expectation of a Fed rate cut typically pushes down long-term rates like the 10-year Treasury yield, which is closely tied to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This is why mortgage rates tend to decline in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, even before it officially happens.
          Historically, the market responds to expectations, not just actual Fed decisions. Data shows that both the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates usually start trending down a few months ahead of an anticipated Fed rate cut. Here are a couple of examples:

          Rate cut on September 18, 2007

          While the Fed cut its rates in mid-September 2007 – after holding them at the same level of 5.3% for 14 months – the 10-year Treasury yield had already begun to decline in July and August, ahead of the cut. Specifically, after surpassing 6.7%[1] in mid-July, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had already dropped to 6.4% by the day before the actual rate cut. On the day of the cut, mortgage rates ticked up, only to drop to 6.35% over the next couple of days before hovering around 6.38% for the next ten days or so. Rates fell below 6.3% on October 10th in anticipation of the Fed’s next rate cut on October 31.

          Rate cut on July 13, 1990

          In July 1990, the Fed lowered its rates, while a couple of months earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates had already started to fall. After reaching 10.49% on May 10, mortgage rates had already dropped to 10.02% by the day before the cut. On the day of the cut, rates ticked up to 10.03%, and mortgage rates didn’t experience a significant drop afterward. In fact, they rose above the levels seen in July but eventually fell below the 10% threshold following an additional rate cut from the Fed on October 29, 1990.
          We are seeing the same pattern now. Although the Fed has not yet cut rates, the 10-year Treasury yield has been easing since May, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has followed suit since June. Mortgage rates are over 100 basis points lower than they were on May 29th. This suggests that markets have already priced in some of the expected impact of the Fed’s upcoming rate cut.

          How low could mortgage rates fall after the cut?

          This is a very challenging question. Predicting mortgage rates is difficult due to the complexity and interplay of various economic factors that influence them. However, in very simple terms, historical data suggests that a 100-basis point rate cut typically leads to an 87-basis point drop in mortgage rates. With the Fed expected to lower its rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year, mortgage rates could fall to around 5.9% by year’s end. Nevertheless, this impact will likely be lessened as mortgage rates have already priced in some of the expected rate cuts. As of now, mortgage rates are already over 100 basis points lower than they were at the end of May 2024.

          Five things homebuyers should consider after the rate cut

          Lower mortgage rates
          One of the most immediate effects of a Fed rate cut is the potential for lower mortgage rates. For prospective homebuyers, this can mean lower monthly payments or the ability to buy a more expensive home than they otherwise could. However, as analyzed above, mortgage rates have already priced in some of the effects of the Fed’s rate cut. This could mean rates may not fall significantly after the cut next week.
          Easier qualifications for mortgages
          When mortgage rates fall, the interest portion of monthly payments decreases, which lowers the total payment. This makes it easier for more borrowers to meet lenders' debt-to-income (DTI) ratio requirements and qualify for mortgages that may have been unaffordable at higher rates. Additionally, with lower rates, lenders consider borrowers less risky since the smaller monthly payments reduce the chances of default. Lower rates not only help the process of qualifying for a new mortgage but also allow homeowners to refinance. In 2023, 74% of mortgage originations for home purchases carried rates above 6% (2.6 million mortgages), along with 82% of home improvement loans (493,230 loans) and 75% of refinances (812,140 refinances).
          Stronger demand for housing
          Lower mortgage rates reduce the cost of borrowing, increase purchasing power, and create a sense of a rush to secure a lower rate, all of which tend to drive up housing demand. However, in many areas where housing inventory is already low, this boost in demand can lead to more competition among buyers. The downside of increased demand is that it puts upward pressure on home prices as multiple buyers compete for a limited number of homes. In markets with ongoing housing shortages, this price increase can offset some of the affordability gains from lower mortgage rates.
          Improved housing affordability
          Home prices and mortgage rates are the two main components that define a mortgage payment. The home price determines the principal amount borrowed, while the mortgage rate affects the interest paid on that principal. Thus, any changes in either of these factors substantially affect the overall monthly mortgage payment. In the meantime, in a previous NAR analysis, data suggests that between these two factors – home prices and mortgage rates - decreasing mortgage rates can more swiftly improve the affordability of homes compared to lowering house prices. A one percentage point decrease in mortgage rates can reduce the monthly mortgage payment mortgage rates as much as a 10% reduction in home prices. However, in areas with a severe housing shortage, lower mortgage rates could be offset by higher home prices, as lower mortgage rates are expected to increase housing demand.
          More inventory in the market
          Affordability is interconnected with the availability of homes. Better affordability also results in more affordable options. According to a recent NAR analysis, with lower mortgage rates, buyers at all income levels can afford a greater number of listings, thereby expanding their choices. The impact is more pronounced at certain income levels, particularly in the middle and upper-middle income brackets ($75,000-$150,000). For higher income levels ($150,000 and over), the percentage increase in affordability is smaller because they already have access to a majority of the housing market. Higher-income levels are also less sensitive to rate changes.
          In addition, the gains from lower mortgage rates could be even larger, as expected rate reductions could encourage more homeowners to sell, thereby increasing the overall housing inventory.
          Furthermore, a Fed rate cut can also positively affect the construction industry. Lower borrowing costs make it cheaper for developers to finance new projects, potentially leading to increased construction of new homes.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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